Climate-driven spatial and temporal patterns in peatland pool biogeochemistry.

Peatland pools are freshwater bodies that are highly dynamic aquatic ecosystems because of their small size and their development in organic-rich sediments. However, our ability to understand and predict their contribution to both local and global biogeochemical cycles under rapidly occurring environmental change is limited because the spatiotemporal drivers of their biogeochemical patterns and processes are poorly understood. We used (1) pool biogeochemical data from 20 peatlands in eastern Canada, the United Kingdom, and southern Patagonia and (2) multi-year data from an undisturbed peatland of eastern Canada, to determine how climate and terrain features drive the production, delivering and processing of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in peatland pools. Across sites, climate (24%) and terrain (13%) explained distinct portions of the variation in pool biogeochemistry, with climate driving spatial differences in pool dissolved organic C (DOC) concentration and aromaticity. Within the multi-year dataset, DOC, carbon dioxide (CO2 ), total N concentrations, and DOC aromaticity were highest in the shallowest pools and at the end of the growing seasons, and increased gradually from 2016 to 2021 in relation to a combination of increases in summer precipitation, mean air temperature for the previous fall, and number of extreme summer heat days. Given the contrasting effects of terrain and climate, broad-scale terrain characteristics may offer a baseline for the prediction of small-scale pool biogeochemistry, while broad-scale climate gradients and relatively small year-to-year variations in local climate induce a noticeable response in pool biogeochemistry. These findings emphasize the reactivity of peatland pools to both local and global environmental change and highlight their potential to act as widely distributed climate sentinels within historically relatively stable peatland ecosystems.

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget.

Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003-2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco ), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco - GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4 ) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of -850 Tg CO2 -C year-1 . Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4 ) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4 -C year-1 . Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions.

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.

Increased high-latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition.

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO2 ) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010-2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO2 uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO2 balance. Eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO2 exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO2 exchange in the fall. The net CO2 exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO2 exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO2 dynamics in the northern high latitudes.

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region.

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1-3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr-1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr-1). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEELAND ), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEELAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEELAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEELAND (-20 g C m-2 ) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m-2 ) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEELAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEELAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m-2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m-2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO2 uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We conclude that NEELAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.

The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.

At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus ('forest') lead to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands ('wetland'). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH4 ) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw-induced increase in CH4 emissions for a boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long-term net carbon dioxide (CO2 ) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH4 flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH4 emissions increase with increasing wetland-to-forest ratio. Landscape CH4 emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May-October) wetland CH4 emission of ~13 g CH4  m-2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH4 emission of ~7 g CH4  m-2 . In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH4 emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr-1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH4  m-2  yr-1 in landscape CH4 emissions. A long-term net CO2 uptake of >200 g CO2  m-2  yr-1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH4 emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration model. However, long-term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest-wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO2 flux measurements suggest a long-term net CO2 uptake between 49 and 157 g CO2  m-2  yr-1 . Thus, thaw-induced CH4 emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing through the 21st century.

Regional atmospheric cooling and wetting effect of permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss.

In the sporadic permafrost zone of North America, thaw-induced boreal forest loss is leading to permafrost-free wetland expansion. These land cover changes alter landscape-scale surface properties with potentially large, however, still unknown impacts on regional climates. In this study, we combine nested eddy covariance flux tower measurements with satellite remote sensing to characterize the impacts of boreal forest loss on albedo, eco-physiological and aerodynamic surface properties, and turbulent energy fluxes of a lowland boreal forest region in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Planetary boundary layer modelling is used to estimate the potential forest loss impact on regional air temperature and atmospheric moisture. We show that thaw-induced conversion of forests to wetlands increases albedo: and bulk surface conductance for water vapour and decreases aerodynamic surface temperature. At the same time, heat transfer efficiency is reduced. These shifts in land surface properties increase latent at the expense of sensible heat fluxes, thus, drastically reducing Bowen ratios. Due to the lower albedo of forests and their masking effect of highly reflective snow, available energy is lower in wetlands, especially in late winter. Modelling results demonstrate that a conversion of a present-day boreal forest-wetland to a hypothetical homogeneous wetland landscape could induce a near-surface cooling effect on regional air temperatures of up to 3-4 °C in late winter and 1-2 °C in summer. An atmospheric wetting effect in summer is indicated by a maximum increase in water vapour mixing ratios of 2 mmol mol-1 . At the same time, maximum boundary layer heights are reduced by about a third of the original height. In fall, simulated air temperature and atmospheric moisture between the two scenarios do not differ. Therefore, permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss may modify regional precipitation patterns and slow down regional warming trends.