Danger, Danger, Gaston Labat! Does zero-shot artificial intelligence correlate with anticoagulation guidelines recommendations for neuraxial anesthesia?

INTRODUCTION: Artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) have emerged as potentially disruptive technologies in healthcare. In this study GPT-3.5, an accessible LLM, was assessed for its accuracy and reliability in performing guideline-based evaluation of neuraxial bleeding risk in hypothetical patients on anticoagulation medication. The study also explored the impact of structured prompt guidance on the LLM's performance. METHODS: A dataset of 10 hypothetical patient stems and 26 anticoagulation profiles (260 unique combinations) was developed based on American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine guidelines. Five prompts were created for the LLM, ranging from minimal guidance to explicit instructions. The model's responses were compared with a "truth table" based on the guidelines. Performance metrics, including accuracy and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), were used. RESULTS: Baseline performance of GPT-3.5 was slightly above chance. With detailed prompts and explicit guidelines, performance improved significantly (AUC 0.70, 95% CI (0.64 to 0.77)). Performance varied among medication classes. DISCUSSION: LLMs show potential for assisting in clinical decision making but rely on accurate and relevant prompts. Integration of LLMs should consider safety and privacy concerns. Further research is needed to optimize LLM performance and address complex scenarios. The tested LLM demonstrates potential in assessing neuraxial bleeding risk but relies on precise prompts. LLM integration should be approached cautiously, considering limitations. Future research should focus on optimization and understanding LLM capabilities and limitations in healthcare.

Clinical Phenotyping with an Outcomes-driven Mixture of Experts for Patient Matching and Risk Estimation.

Observational medical data present unique opportunities for analysis of medical outcomes and treatment decision making. However, because these datasets do not contain the strict pairing of randomized control trials, matching techniques are to draw comparisons among patients. A key limitation to such techniques is verification that the variables used to model treatment decision making are also relevant in identifying the risk of major adverse events. This article explores a deep mixture of experts approach to jointly learn how to match patients and model the risk of major adverse events in patients. Although trained with information regarding treatment and outcomes, after training, the proposed model is decomposable into a network that clusters patients into phenotypes from information available before treatment. This model is validated on a dataset of patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock. The mixture of experts approach can predict the outcome of mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 ± 0.01 while jointly discovering five potential phenotypes of interest. The technique and interpretation allow for identifying clinically relevant phenotypes that may be used both for outcomes modeling as well as potentially evaluating individualized treatment effects.

Would doctors dream of electric blood bankers? Large language model-based artificial intelligence performs well in many aspects of transfusion medicine.

BACKGROUND: Large language models (LLMs) excel at answering knowledge-based questions. Many aspects of blood banking and transfusion medicine involve no direct patient care and require only knowledge and judgment. We hypothesized that public LLMs could perform such tasks with accuracy and precision. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We presented three sets of tasks to three publicly-available LLMs (Bard, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4). The first was to review short case presentations and then decide if a red blood cell transfusion was indicated. The second task was to answer a set of consultation questions common in clinical transfusion practice. The third task was to take a multiple-choice test experimentally validated to assess internal medicine postgraduate knowledge of transfusion practice (the BEST-TEST). RESULTS: In the first task, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for correct transfusion decisions was 0.65, 0.90, and 0.92, respectively for Bard, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. All three models had a modest rate of acceptable responses to the consultation questions. Average scores on the BEST-TEST were 55%, 40%, and 87%, respectively. CONCLUSION: When presented with transfusion medicine tasks in natural language, publicly available LLMs demonstrated a range of ability, but GPT-4 consistently scored very well in all tasks. Research is needed to assess the utility of LLMs in transfusion medicine practice. Transfusion Medicine physicians should consider their role alongside such technologies, and how they might be used for the benefit and safety of patients.

A Survey of Challenges and Opportunities in Sensing and Analytics for Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disorders.

Cardiovascular disorders cause nearly one in three deaths in the United States. Short- and long-term care for these disorders is often determined in short-term settings. However, these decisions are made with minimal longitudinal and long-term data. To overcome this bias towards data from acute care settings, improved longitudinal monitoring for cardiovascular patients is needed. Longitudinal monitoring provides a more comprehensive picture of patient health, allowing for informed decision making. This work surveys sensing and machine learning in the field of remote health monitoring for cardiovascular disorders. We highlight three needs in the design of new smart health technologies: (1) need for sensing technologies that track longitudinal trends of the cardiovascular disorder despite infrequent, noisy, or missing data measurements; (2) need for new analytic techniques designed in a longitudinal, continual fashion to aid in the development of new risk prediction techniques and in tracking disease progression; and (3) need for personalized and interpretable machine learning techniques, allowing for advancements in clinical decision making. We highlight these needs based upon the current state of the art in smart health technologies and analytics. We then discuss opportunities in addressing these needs for development of smart health technologies for the field of cardiovascular disorders and care.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes for 7,995 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected millions of people worldwide. Our goal was to identify risk factors associated with admission and disease severity in patients with SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: This was an observational, retrospective study based on real-world data for 7,995 patients with SARS-CoV-2 from a clinical data repository. SETTING: Yale New Haven Health (YNHH) is a five-hospital academic health system serving a diverse patient population with community and teaching facilities in both urban and suburban areas. POPULATIONS: The study included adult patients who had SARS-CoV-2 testing at YNHH between March 1 and April 30, 2020. MAIN OUTCOME AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES: Primary outcomes were admission and in-hospital mortality for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection as determined by RT-PCR testing. We also assessed features associated with the need for respiratory support. RESULTS: Of the 28605 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2, 7995 patients (27.9%) had an infection (median age 52.3 years) and 2154 (26.9%) of these had an associated admission (median age 66.2 years). Of admitted patients, 2152 (99.9%) had a discharge disposition at the end of the study period. Of these, 329 (15.3%) required invasive mechanical ventilation and 305 (14.2%) expired. Increased age and male sex were positively associated with admission and in-hospital mortality (median age 80.7 years), while comorbidities had a much weaker association with the risk of admission or mortality. Black race (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.14-1.78) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.50-2.18) were identified as risk factors for admission, but, among discharged patients, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study identified, among people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection, older age and male sex as the most strongly associated risks for admission and in-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. While minority racial and ethnic groups had increased burden of disease and risk of admission, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality for discharged patients was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. Ongoing studies will be needed to continue to evaluate these risks, particularly in the setting of evolving treatment guidelines.

Use of Machine Learning Models to Predict Death After Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Importance: Accurate prediction of adverse outcomes after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) can guide the triage of care services and shared decision-making, and novel methods hold promise for using existing data to generate additional insights. Objective: To evaluate whether contemporary machine learning methods can facilitate risk prediction by including a larger number of variables and identifying complex relationships between predictors and outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the American College of Cardiology Chest Pain-MI Registry to identify all AMI hospitalizations between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016. Data analysis was performed from February 1, 2018, to October 22, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Three machine learning models were developed and validated to predict in-hospital mortality based on patient comorbidities, medical history, presentation characteristics, and initial laboratory values. Models were developed based on extreme gradient descent boosting (XGBoost, an interpretable model), a neural network, and a meta-classifier model. Their accuracy was compared against the current standard developed using a logistic regression model in a validation sample. Results: A total of 755 402 patients (mean [SD] age, 65 [13] years; 495 202 [65.5%] male) were identified during the study period. In independent validation, 2 machine learning models, gradient descent boosting and meta-classifier (combination including inputs from gradient descent boosting and a neural network), marginally improved discrimination compared with logistic regression (C statistic, 0.90 for best performing machine learning model vs 0.89 for logistic regression). Nearly perfect calibration in independent validation data was found in the XGBoost (slope of predicted to observed events, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.04) and the meta-classifier model (slope of predicted-to-observed events, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.02), with more precise classification across the risk spectrum. The XGBoost model reclassified 32 393 of 121 839 individuals (27%) and the meta-classifier model reclassified 30 836 of 121 839 individuals (25%) deemed at moderate to high risk for death in logistic regression as low risk, which were more consistent with the observed event rates. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study using a large national registry, none of the tested machine learning models were associated with substantive improvement in the discrimination of in-hospital mortality after AMI, limiting their clinical utility. However, compared with logistic regression, XGBoost and meta-classifier models, but not the neural network, offered improved resolution of risk for high-risk individuals.

Use of Mechanical Circulatory Support Devices Among Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock.

Importance: Mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices, including intravascular microaxial left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) and intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABPs), are used in patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock despite limited evidence of their clinical benefit. Objective: To examine trends in the use of MCS devices among patients who underwent PCI for AMI with cardiogenic shock, hospital-level use variation, and factors associated with use. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used the CathPCI and Chest Pain-MI Registries of the American College of Cardiology National Cardiovascular Data Registry. Patients who underwent PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock between October 1, 2015, and December 31, 2017, were identified from both registries. Data were analyzed from October 2018 to August 2020. Exposures: Therapies to provide hemodynamic support were categorized as intravascular microaxial LVAD, IABP, TandemHeart, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, LVAD, other devices, combined IABP and intravascular microaxial LVAD, combined IABP and other device (defined as TandemHeart, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, LVAD, or another MCS device), or medical therapy only. Main Outcomes and Measures: Use of MCS devices overall and specific MCS devices, including intravascular microaxial LVAD, at both patient and hospital levels and variables associated with use. Results: Among the 28 304 patients included in the study, the mean (SD) age was 65.4 (12.6) years and 18 968 were men (67.0%). The overall MCS device use was constant from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2017, although use of intravascular microaxial LVADs significantly increased (from 4.1% to 9.8%; P < .001), whereas use of IABPs significantly decreased (from 34.8% to 30.0%; P < .001). A significant hospital-level variation in MCS device use was found. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) proportion of patients who received MCS devices was 42% (30%-54%), and the median proportion of patients who received intravascular microaxial LVADs was 1% (0%-10%). In multivariable analyses, cardiac arrest at first medical contact or during hospitalization (odds ratio [OR], 1.82; 95% CI, 1.58-2.09) and severe left main and/or proximal left anterior descending coronary artery stenosis (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.20-1.54) were patient characteristics that were associated with higher odds of receiving intravascular microaxial LVADs only compared with IABPs only. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that, among patients who underwent PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock, overall use of MCS devices was constant, and a 2.5-fold increase in intravascular microaxial LVAD use was found along with a corresponding decrease in IABP use and a significant hospital-level variation in MCS device use. These trends were observed despite limited clinical trial evidence of improved outcomes associated with device use.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes for 7,995 Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected millions of people worldwide. Our goal was to identify risk factors associated with admission and disease severity in patients with SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: This was an observational, retrospective study based on real-world data for 7,995 patients with SARS-CoV-2 from a clinical data repository. SETTING: Yale New Haven Health (YNHH) is a five-hospital academic health system serving a diverse patient population with community and teaching facilities in both urban and suburban areas. POPULATIONS: The study included adult patients who had SARS-CoV-2 testing at YNHH between March 1 and April 30, 2020. MAIN OUTCOME AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES: Primary outcomes were admission and in-hospital mortality for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection as determined by RT-PCR testing. We also assessed features associated with the need for respiratory support. RESULTS: Of the 28605 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2, 7995 patients (27.9%) had an infection (median age 52.3 years) and 2154 (26.9%) of these had an associated admission (median age 66.2 years). Of admitted patients, 2152 (99.9%) had a discharge disposition at the end of the study period. Of these, 329 (15.3%) required invasive mechanical ventilation and 305 (14.2%) expired. Increased age and male sex were positively associated with admission and in-hospital mortality (median age 80.7 years), while comorbidities had a much weaker association with the risk of admission or mortality. Black race (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.14-1.78) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.50-2.18) were identified as risk factors for admission, but, among discharged patients, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study identified, among people testing positive for SARSCoV-2 infection, older age and male sex as the most strongly associated risks for admission and in-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. While minority racial and ethnic groups had increased burden of disease and risk of admission, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality for discharged patients was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. Ongoing studies will be needed to continue to evaluate these risks, particularly in the setting of evolving treatment guidelines.

Association of Use of an Intravascular Microaxial Left Ventricular Assist Device vs Intra-aortic Balloon Pump With In-Hospital Mortality and Major Bleeding Among Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock.

Importance: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Although intravascular microaxial left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) provide greater hemodynamic support as compared with intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABPs), little is known about clinical outcomes associated with intravascular microaxial LVAD use in clinical practice. Objective: To examine outcomes among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock treated with mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices. Design, Setting, and Participants: A propensity-matched registry-based retrospective cohort study of patients with AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock undergoing PCI between October 1, 2015, and December 31, 2017, who were included in data from hospitals participating in the CathPCI and the Chest Pain-MI registries, both part of the American College of Cardiology's National Cardiovascular Data Registry. Patients receiving an intravascular microaxial LVAD were matched with those receiving IABP on demographics, clinical history, presentation, infarct location, coronary anatomy, and clinical laboratory data, with final follow-up through December 31, 2017. Exposures: Hemodynamic support, categorized as intravascular microaxial LVAD use only, IABP only, other (such as use of a percutaneous extracorporeal ventricular assist system, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or a combination of MCS device use), or medical therapy only. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and in-hospital major bleeding. Results: Among 28 304 patients undergoing PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock, the mean (SD) age was 65.0 (12.6) years, 67.0% were men, 81.3% had an ST-elevation myocardial infarction, and 43.3% had cardiac arrest. Over the study period among patients with AMI, an intravascular microaxial LVAD was used in 6.2% of patients, and IABP was used in 29.9%. Among 1680 propensity-matched pairs, there was a significantly higher risk of in-hospital death associated with use of an intravascular microaxial LVAD (45.0%) vs with an IABP (34.1% [absolute risk difference, 10.9 percentage points {95% CI, 7.6-14.2}; P < .001) and also higher risk of in-hospital major bleeding (intravascular microaxial LVAD [31.3%] vs IABP [16.0%]; absolute risk difference, 15.4 percentage points [95% CI, 12.5-18.2]; P < .001). These associations were consistent regardless of whether patients received a device before or after initiation of PCI. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients undergoing PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock from 2015 to 2017, use of an intravascular microaxial LVAD compared with IABP was associated with higher adjusted risk of in-hospital death and major bleeding complications, although study interpretation is limited by the observational design. Further research may be needed to understand optimal device choice for these patients.

Developing Personalized Models of Blood Pressure Estimation from Wearable Sensors Data Using Minimally-trained Domain Adversarial Neural Networks.

Blood pressure monitoring is an essential component of hypertension management and in the prediction of associated comorbidities. Blood pressure is a dynamic vital sign with frequent changes throughout a given day. Capturing blood pressure remotely and frequently (also known as ambulatory blood pressure monitoring) has traditionally been achieved by measuring blood pressure at discrete intervals using an inflatable cuff. However, there is growing interest in developing a cuffless ambulatory blood pressure monitoring system to measure blood pressure continuously. One such approach is by utilizing bioimpedance sensors to build regression models. A practical problem with this approach is that the amount of data required to confidently train such a regression model can be prohibitive. In this paper, we propose the application of the domain-adversarial training neural network (DANN) method on our multitask learning (MTL) blood pressure estimation model, allowing for knowledge transfer between subjects. Our proposed model obtains average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.80 ± 0.74 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure and 7.34 ± 1.88 mmHg for systolic blood pressure when using three minutes of training data, 4.64 ± 0.60 mmHg and 7.10 ± 1.79 respectively when using four minutes of training data, and 4.48±0.57 mmHg and 6.79±1.70 respectively when using five minutes of training data. DANN improves training with minimal data in comparison to both directly training and to training with a pretrained model from another subject, decreasing RMSE by 0.19 to 0.26 mmHg (diastolic) and by 0.46 to 0.67 mmHg (systolic) in comparison to the best baseline models. We observe that four minutes of training data is the minimum requirement for our framework to exceed ISO standards within this cohort of patients.

Sparse Embedding for Interpretable Hospital Admission Prediction.

This paper introduces a sparse embedding for electronic health record (EHR) data in order to predict hospital admission. We use a k-sparse autoencoder to embed the original registry data into a much lower dimension, with sparsity as a goal. Then, t-SNE is used to show the embedding of each patient's data in a 2D plot. We then demonstrate the predictive accuracy in different existing machine learning algorithms. Our sparse embedding performs competitively against the original data and traditional embedding vectors with an AUROC of 0.878. In addition, we demonstrate the expressive power of our sparse embedding, i.e. interpretability. Sparse embedding can discover more phenotypes in t-SNE visualization than original data or traditional embedding. The discovered phenotypes can be regarded as different risk groups, through which we can study the driving risk factors for each patient phenotype.