Mid-life employment trajectories and subsequent memory function and rate of decline in rural South Africa, 2000-22.

AIM: To investigate mid-life employment trajectories in relation to later-life memory function and rate of decline in rural South Africa. METHODS: Data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System were linked to the 'Health and Ageing in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa' (HAALSI) in rural Agincourt, South Africa (N = 3133). Employment was assessed every 4 years over 2000-12 as being employed (0, 1, 2 and ≥3 time points), being employed in a higher-skill occupation (0, 1, 2 and ≥3 time points) and dynamic employment trajectories identified using sequence analysis. Latent memory z-scores were assessed over 2014-22. Mixed-effects linear regression models were fitted to examine the associations of interest. RESULTS: Sustained mid-life employment from 2000-12 (ß = 0.052, 95% CI: -0.028 to 0.132, 1 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.163, 95% CI: 0.077 to 0.250, 2 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.212, 95% CI: 0.128 to 0.296, ≥3 vs 0 time points) and greater time spent in a higher-skill occupation (ß = 0.077, 95% CI: -0.020 to 0.175, 1 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.241, 95% CI: 0.070 to 0.412, 2 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.361, 95% CI: 0.201 to 0.520, ≥3 vs 0 time points) were associated with higher memory scores in 2014/15, but not subsequent rate of memory decline. Moving from a lower-skill to higher-skill occupation was associated with higher memory function, but a faster rate of decline over 2014-22. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained mid-life employment, particularly in higher-skill occupations, may contribute to later-life memory function in this post-Apartheid South African setting.

Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting.

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

Pregnancy-related mortality up to 1 year postpartum in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis of verbal autopsy data from six countries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum. DESIGN: Open population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems). SETTING: Ten Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa. POPULATION: 2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: InterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43-365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000-2009 and 2010-2019). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs). RESULTS: Of 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy-related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy-related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000-2009 and 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Cause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non-communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy-related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non-obstetric care with ante-, intra- and postpartum care in high-burden settings.

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.

OBJECTIVES: South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study. DATA DESCRIPTION: The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants' AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) - which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Telomere Length, Health, and Mortality in a Cohort of Older Black South African Adults.

Telomere length (TL) may be a biomarker of aging processes as well as age-related diseases. However, most studies of TL and aging are conducted in high-income countries. Less is known in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as South Africa, where life expectancy remains lower despite population aging. We conducted a descriptive analysis of TL in a cohort of older adults in rural South Africa. TL was assayed from venous blood draws using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (T/S ratio). We examined the correlation between TL and biomarkers, demographic characteristics, mental/cognitive health measures, and physical performance measures in a subsample of the Wave 1 2014-2015 "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI) cohort (n = 510). We used logistic regression to measure the association between TL and mortality through Wave 3 (2021-2022). In bivariate analyses, TL was significantly correlated with age (r = -0.29, p < .0001), self-reported female sex (r = 0.13, p = .002), mortality (r = -0.1297, p = .003), diastolic blood pressure (r = 0.09, p = .037), pulse pressure (r = -0.09, p = .045), and being a grandparent (r = -0.17, p = .0001). TL was significantly associated with age (ß = -0.003; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.005, -0.003). TL was significantly associated in unadjusted multivariate analyses with mortality, but the relationship between TL and mortality was attenuated after adjusting for age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.19; 95% CI = 0.03, 1.27) and other covariates (OR = 0.17; 95% CI = 0.02, 1.19). Our study is the first analysis of TL in an older adult South African population. Our results corroborate existing relationships between TL and age, sex, cardiometabolic disease, and mortality found in higher-income countries.

Association of alcohol use and multimorbidity among adults aged 40 years and above in rural South Africa.

We assessed the prevalence of reported alcohol use and its association with multimorbidity among adults aged 40 years and above in a rural, transitioning South African setting. Findings could potentially inform alcohol interventions integration in the prevention and treatment of chronic conditions. We analysed data from the first wave of The Health and Ageing in Africa-a longitudinal Study in an INDEPTH community (HAALSI) nested within the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems, conducted between November 2014 and November 2015 (n = 5059). We computed descriptive statistics and performed univariate analysis to determine factors independently associated with multimorbidity. Age, Body Mass Index, education, sex, and household wealth status and variables with a p-value < 0.20 in univariate analysis were included in multivariable Modified Poisson regression models. Any factors with a p-value of < 0.05 in the final models were considered statistically significant. The first wave of HAALSI was completed by 5059 participants aged 40 years and above and included 2714 (53.6%) females. The prevalence of reported ever alcohol use was 44.6% (n = 2253) and of these 51.9% (n = 1171) reported alcohol use in the last 30 days. The prevalence of HIV multimorbidity was 59.6% (3014/5059) and for multimorbidity without HIV 52.5% (2657/5059). Alcohol use was associated with HIV multimorbidity among all participants (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08), and separately for males (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.10) and females (RR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02-1.11). Similarly, alcohol use was associated with multimorbidity without HIV among all participants (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.09), and separately for males (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12) and females (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.11). Reported alcohol use was common and associated with HIV multimorbidity and multimorbidity without HIV among older adults in rural northeast South Africa. There is a need to integrate Screening, Brief Interventions, and Referral for alcohol Treatment in the existing prevention and treatment of multimorbidity in South Africa.

Estimating the Prevalence of over- and Under-Reporting in HIV Testing, Status and Treatment in Rural Northeast South Africa: A Comparison of a Survey and Clinic Records.

We assess the accuracy of self-reported testing, HIV status, and treatment responses compared to clinical records in Ehlanzeni District, South Africa. We linked a 2018 population-based survey of adults 18-49 years old with clinical data at local primary healthcare facilities from 2014 to 2018. We calculated self-reported testing, HIV status, and treatment, and triangulated findings with clinic record data. We adjusted testing estimates for known gaps in HIV test documentation. Of 2089 survey participants, 1657 used a study facility and were eligible for analysis. Half of men and 84% of women reported an HIV test in the past year. One third of reported tests could be confirmed in clinic data within 1 year and an additional 13% within 2 years; these fractions increased to 57% and 22% respectively limiting to participants with a verified clinic file. After accounting for gaps in clinic documentation, we found that prevalence of recent HIV testing was closer to 15% among men and 51% in women. Estimated prevalence of known HIV was 16.2% based on self-report vs. 27.6% with clinic documentation. Relative to clinical records among confirmed clinic users, self report of HIV testing and of current treatment were highly sensitive but non-specific (sensitivity 95.5% and 98.8%, specificity 24.2% and 16.1% respectively), while self report of HIV status was highly specific but not sensitive (sensitivity 53.0%, specificity 99.3%). While clinical records are imperfect, survey-based measures should be interpreted with caution in this rural South African setting.

Improvements in Hypertension Control in the Rural Longitudinal HAALSI Cohort of South African Adults Aged 40 and Older, From 2014 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Over half of the South African adults aged 45 years and older have hypertension but its effective management along the treatment cascade (awareness, treatment, and control) remains poorly understood. METHODS: We compared the prevalence of all stages of the hypertension treatment cascade in the rural HAALSI cohort of older adults at baseline and after four years of follow-up using household surveys and blood pressure data. Hypertension was a mean systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure >90 mm Hg, or current use of anti-hypertension medication. Control was a mean blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg. The effects of sex and age on the treatment cascade at follow-up were assessed. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios along the treatment cascade at follow-up. RESULTS: Prevalence along the treatment cascade increased from baseline (B) to follow-up (F): awareness (64.4% vs. 83.6%), treatment (49.7% vs. 73.9%), and control (22.8% vs. 41.3%). At both time points, women had higher levels of awareness (B: 70.5% vs. 56.3%; F: 88.1% vs. 76.7%), treatment (B: 55.9% vs. 41.55; F: 79.9% vs. 64.7%), and control (B: 26.5% vs. 17.9%; F: 44.8% vs. 35.7%). Prevalence along the cascade increased linearly with age for everyone. Predictors of awareness included being female, elderly, or visiting a primary health clinic three times in the previous 3 months, and the latter two also predicted hypertension control. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant improvements in awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension from baseline to follow-up and women fared better at all stages, at both time points.

Significant Improvement in Blood Pressure Levels Among Older Adults With Hypertension in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiologic transition from infectious diseases to cardiovascular diseases. From 2014 to 2019, sociodemographic surveillance was performed in a large cohort in rural South Africa. METHODS: Disease prevalence and incidence were calculated using inverse probability weights. Poisson regression was used to identify disease predictors. The percentage of individuals with controlled (<140/90 mm Hg) versus uncontrolled hypertension was compared between 2014 and 2019. RESULTS: Compared with 2014 (n=5059), study participants in 2019 (n=4176) had similar rates of obesity (mean body mass index, 27.5±10.0 versus 27.0±6.5) but higher smoking (9.1% versus 11.5%) and diabetes (11.1% versus 13.9%). There was no significant increase in hypertension prevalence (58.4% versus 59.8%; age adjusted, 64.3% versus 63.3%), and there was a significant reduction in mean systolic blood pressure (138.0 versus 128.5 mm Hg; P<0.001). Among hypertensive individuals who reported medication use in 2014 and 2019 (n=796), the proportion with controlled hypertension on medication increased from 44.5% to 62.3%. Hypertension incidence was 6.2 per 100 person-years, and age was the only independent predictor. Among normotensive individuals in 2014 (n=2257), 15.2% developed hypertension by 2019, with the majority already controlled on medications by 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The hypertension prevalence and incidence are plateauing in this aging cohort. There was a statistically and clinically significant decline in mean blood pressure and a substantial increase in individuals with controlled hypertension on medication. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors did not decrease over time, suggesting that the blood pressure decrease is likely due to increased medication access and adherence, promoted by local health systems.

Estimating population level 24-h sodium excretion using spot urine samples in older adults in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has introduced regulations to reduce sodium in processed foods. Assessing salt consumption with 24-h urine collection is logistically challenging and expensive. We assess the accuracy of using spot urine samples to estimate 24-h urine sodium (24hrUNa) excretion at the population level in a cohort of older adults in rural South Africa. METHODS: 24hrUNa excretion was measured and compared to that estimated from matched spot urine samples in 399 individuals, aged 40-75 years, from rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We used the Tanaka, Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT), and Population Mean Volume (PMV) method to predict 24hrUNa at the individual and population level. RESULTS: The population median 24hrUNa excretion from our samples collected in 2017 was 2.6 g (interquartile range: 1.53-4.21) equal to an average daily salt intake of 6.6 g, whereas 65.4% of participants had a salt excretion above the WHO recommended 5 g/day. Estimated population median 24hrUNa derived from the INTERSALT, both with and without potassium, showed a nonsignificant difference of 0.25 g (P = 0.59) and 0.21 g (P = 0.67), respectively. In contrast, the Tanaka, Kawasaki, and PMV formulas were markedly higher than the measured 24hrUNa, with a median difference of 0.51 g (P = 0.004), 0.99 g (P = 0.00), and 1.05 g (P = 0.00) respectively. All formulas however performed poorly when predicting an individual's 24hrUNa. CONCLUSION: In this population, the INTERSALT formulas are a well suited and cost-effective alternative to 24-h urine collection for the evaluation of population median 24hrUNa excretion. This could play an important role for governments and public health agencies in evaluating local salt regulations and identifying at-risk populations.

Epidemiology of chronic multimorbidity and temporary migration in a rural South African community in health transition: A cross-sectional population-based analysis.

Introduction: In sub-Saharan African settings, the increasing non-communicable disease mortality is linked to migration, which disproportionately exposes sub-populations to risk factors for co-occurring HIV and NCDs. Methods: We examined the prevalence, patterns, and factors associated with two or more concurrent diagnoses of chronic diseases (i.e., multimorbidity) among temporary within-country migrants. Employing a cross-sectional design, our study sample comprised 2144 residents and non-residents 18-40 years interviewed and with measured biomarkers in 2018 in Wave 1 of the Migrant Health Follow-up Study (MHFUS), drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) in rural north-eastern South Africa. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate the association between migration status and prevalent chronic multimorbidity conditional on age, sex, education, and healthcare utilisation. Results: Overall, 301 participants (14%; 95% CI 12.6-15.6), median age 31 years had chronic multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was more prevalent among non-migrants (14.6%; 95% CI 12.8-16.4) compared to migrants (12.8%; 95% CI 10.3-15.7). Non-migrants also had the greatest burden of dual-overlapping chronic morbidities, such as HIV-obesity 5.7%. Multimorbidity was 2.6 times as prevalent (PR 2.65. 95% CI 2.07-3.39) among women compared to men. Among migrants, men, and individuals with secondary or tertiary education manifested lower prevalence of two or more conditions. Discussion: In a rural community with colliding epidemics, we found low but significant multimorbidity driven by a trio of conditions: HIV, hypertension, and obesity. Understanding the multimorbidity burden associated with early adulthood exposures, including potential protective factors (i.e., migration coupled with education), is a critical first step towards improving secondary and tertiary prevention for chronic disease among highly mobile marginalised sub-populations.

Performance evaluation of machine learning and Computer Coded Verbal Autopsy (CCVA) algorithms for cause of death determination: A comparative analysis of data from rural South Africa.

Computer Coded Verbal Autopsy (CCVA) algorithms are commonly used to determine the cause of death (CoD) from questionnaire responses extracted from verbal autopsies (VAs). However, they can only operate on structured data and cannot effectively harness information from unstructured VA narratives. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have also been applied successfully in determining the CoD from VA narratives, allowing the use of auxiliary information that CCVA algorithms cannot directly utilize. However, most ML-based studies only use responses from the structured questionnaire, and the results lack generalisability and comparability across studies. We present a comparative performance evaluation of ML methods and CCVA algorithms on South African VA narratives data, using data from Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) with physicians' classifications as the gold standard. The data were collected from 1993 to 2015 and have 16,338 cases. The random forest and extreme gradient boosting classifiers outperformed the other classifiers on the combined dataset, attaining accuracy of 96% respectively, with significant statistical differences in algorithmic performance (p < 0.0001). All our models attained Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) of greater than 0.884. The InterVA CCVA attained 83% Cause Specific Mortality Fraction accuracy and an Overall Chance-Corrected Concordance of 0.36. We demonstrate that ML models could accurately determine the cause of death from VA narratives. Additionally, through mortality trends and pattern analysis, we discovered that in the first decade of the civil registration system in South Africa, the average life expectancy was approximately 50 years. However, in the second decade, life expectancy significantly dropped, and the population was dying at a much younger average age of 40 years, mostly from the leading HIV related causes. Interestingly, in the third decade, we see a gradual improvement in life expectancy, possibly attributed to effective health intervention programmes. Through a structure and semantic analysis of narratives where experts disagree, we also demonstrate the most frequent terms of traditional healer consultations and visits. The comparative approach also makes this study a baseline that can be used for future research enforcing generalization and comparability. Future study will entail exploring deep learning models for CoD classification.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality. METHODS: Data come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure. RESULTS: During the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population. PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults: findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015.

OBJECTIVES: There is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period. DESIGN: We assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline. SETTING: Rural South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: We used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015. RESULTS: Of 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.

Pregnancy-related healthcare utilisation in Agincourt, South Africa, 1993-2018: a longitudinal surveillance study of rural mothers.

INTRODUCTION: Pregnancy-related health services, an important mediator of global health priorities, require robust health infrastructure. We described pregnancy-related healthcare utilisation among rural South African women from 1993 to 2018, a period of social, political and economic transition. METHODS: We included participants enrolled in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, a population-based longitudinal cohort, who reported pregnancy between 1993 and 2018. We assessed age, antenatal visits, years of education, pregnancy intention, nationality, residency status, previous pregnancies, prepregnancy and postpregnancy contraceptive use, and student status over the study period and modelled predictors of antenatal care utilisation (ordinal), skilled birth attendant presence (logistic) and delivery at a health facility (logistic). RESULTS: Between 1993 and 2018, 51 355 pregnancies occurred. Median antenatal visits, skilled birth attendant presence and healthcare facility deliveries increased over time. Delivery in 2018 vs 2004 was associated with an increased likelihood of ≥1 additional antenatal visits (adjusted OR (aOR) 10.81, 95% CI 9.99 to 11.71), skilled birth attendant presence (aOR 4.58, 95% CI 3.70 to 5.67) and delivery at a health facility (aOR 3.78, 95% CI 3.15 to 4.54). Women of Mozambican origin were less likely to deliver with a skilled birth attendant (aOR 0.42, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.45) or at a health facility (aOR 0.43, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.46) versus South Africans. Temporary migrants reported fewer antenatal visits (aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.38) but were more likely to deliver with a skilled birth attendant (aOR 1.91, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.2) or at a health facility (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.58) versus permanent residents. CONCLUSION: Pregnancy-related healthcare utilisation and skilled birth attendant presence at delivery have increased steadily since 1993 in rural northeastern South Africa, aligning with health policy changes enacted during this time. However, mothers of Mozambican descent are still less likely to use free care, which requires further study and policy interventions.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa. METHODS: We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival. FINDINGS: 3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

HIV Status and Antiretroviral Therapy as Predictors of Disability among Older South Africans: Overall Association and Moderation by Body Mass Index.

Objectives: Among older people living with HIV (PLWH) and comparable individuals without HIV, we evaluated whether associations of HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) with disability depend on body mass index (BMI). Methods: We analyzed 4552 participants in the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa." (HAALSI) We compared prevalence of disability (≥1 impairment in basic activities of daily living) by HIV status, ART use, and BMI category, adjusting for age, sex, education, father's occupation, country of origin, lifetime alcohol use, and primary health-care utilization. Results: Among PLWH, those underweight had 9.8% points (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 18.4) higher prevalence of disability than those with normal BMI. Among ART users, those underweight had 11.9% points (95% CI: 2.2 to 21.6) higher prevalence of disability than those with normal BMI. Conclusions: We found no evidence that weight improvement associated with ART use is likely to increase disability.

Outcomes After Being Lost to Follow-up Differ for Pregnant and Postpartum Women When Compared With the General HIV Treatment Population in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Undetermined attrition prohibits full understanding of the coverage and effectiveness of HIV programs. Outcomes following loss to follow-up (LTFU) among antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients may differ according to their reasons for ART initiation. SETTING: We compare the true outcomes of adult patients previously identified as LTFU by reason for ART initiation in 8 health facilities in north eastern South Africa. METHODS: Adult HIV patient records were linked to health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) data from 2014 to 2017. Outcomes of adults categorized as LTFU (>90 days late for the last scheduled clinic visit) were determined through clinic and routine tracing record reviews, consultation of HDSS data, and supplementary tracing. We calculated the proportion of patients per outcome category and performed competing risk survival analysis to estimate the cumulative incidence of death, transfer, migration, ART interruption, and re-engagement following LTFU. RESULTS: Of 895/1017 patients LTFU with an outcome ascertained, 120 (13.4%) had died, 225 (25.1%) re-engaged, 50 (5.6%) migrated out of the HDSS, 75 (8.4%) were alive and not on treatment, and 315 (35.1%) transferred their treatment. These outcomes varied by sex and pregnancy status at ART initiation. Mortality was less likely among pregnant women, patients with higher baseline CD4, and more likely among older patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patient survival and transfers to other facilities are considerably higher than those suggested in earlier studies. Outcomes differ for women who were pregnant or postpartum when initiating ART, with this population less likely to have died and more likely to have migrated.

Epilepsy care cascade, treatment gap and its determinants in rural South Africa.

PURPOSE: The percentage of people who are diagnosed with epilepsy (diagnostic gap), access, receive and adhere (treatment gap) to anti-seizure medication (ASM) in low- and middle- income countries remains low. We explored the epilepsy care cascade, measured the diagnostic and treatment gaps, and examined socio-demographic factors associated with adherence to ASMs in rural South Africa. METHODS: Utilizing a population-based cohort of 311 people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) residing in rural northeastern South Africa, a questionnaire was administered to examine associations between demographic and socioeconomic factors and the epilepsy treatment gap. Blood was taken to measure levels of ASMs. RESULTS: Of the 311 individuals diagnosed, 93 % of individuals reported being previously told they had epilepsy and 94 % reported previously attending a health facility for their epilepsy. ASMs were detected in 138 individuals (76 %) and optimal levels were detected in 67 individuals, resulting in a treatment gap of 63 % (95 % confidence interval [95 %CI]: 56 %-70 %). Self-reported specificity of ASM use was 23 % (95 %CI: 12-39 %) and individuals ≥18 years were significantly more likely to report taking ASM than children and were significantly (p = 0.011) more likely to be adherent. CONCLUSION: Most people with epilepsy in rural South Africa had been previously diagnosed with epilepsy and had accessed care for epilepsy, yet the level of ASM adherence remained low, significantly lower amongst children. Understanding ways of improving knowledge of and adherence to ASM in rural South Africa is necessary, especially amongst children. The epilepsy care cascade can be useful in identifying gaps in care and targeting interventions to reduce these gaps.