Modeling Ecological Constraints on a CO2 Pipeline Network.

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are a critical set of strategies to decarbonize the industrial and power sectors and to mitigate global climate change. Pipeline infrastructure connecting CO2 sources and sinks, if not planned strategically, can cause environmental and social impacts by disturbing local landscapes. We investigated the impacts of these considerations on optimal CO2 pipeline routing and sink locations by modifying and leveraging an open-source CCUS infrastructure model, SimCCS. We expanded SimCCS from a cost-minimizing to a multiobjective framework, explicitly incorporating environmental protection objectives. We estimated trade-offs between private costs and environmental and social impacts. Using a version of the model focused on the southeastern United States, we modeled seven scenarios with varying weights given to environmental impacts to evaluate how the pipeline network responds to the multiobjective optimization. We found that the optimal path is sensitive to environmental and social impact considerations in that a small increase in pipeline length (and cost) significantly avoids large environmental and social impacts. We hope such a tool can be used to improve the pipeline permitting and siting processes and contribute to the achievement of decarbonization goals with minimal environmental impacts.

Decommissioning Orphaned and Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells: New Estimates and Cost Drivers.

Millions of abandoned oil and gas wells are scattered across the United States, causing methane emissions and other environmental hazards. Governments are increasingly interested in decommissioning these wells but want to do so efficiently. However, information on the costs of decommissioning wells is very limited. In this analysis, we provide new cost estimates for decommissioning oil and gas wells and key cost drivers. We analyze data from up to 19,500 wells and find median decommissioning costs are roughly $20,000 for plugging only and $76,000 for plugging and surface reclamation. In rare cases, costs exceed $1 million per well. Each additional 1,000 feet of well depth increases costs by 20%, older wells are more costly than newer ones, natural gas wells are 9% more expensive than wells that produce oil, and costs vary widely by state. Surface characteristics also matter: each additional 10 feet of elevation change in the 5-acre area surrounding the well raises costs by 3%. Finally, we find that contracting in bulk pays: each additional well per contract reduces decommissioning costs by 3% per well. These findings suggest that regulators can adjust bonding requirements to better match the characteristics of each well.

Systematically Incorporating Environmental Objectives into Shale Gas Pipeline Development: A Binary Integer, Multiobjective Spatial Optimization Model.

Shale gas pipeline development can have negative environmental impacts, including adverse effects on species and ecosystems through habitat degradation and loss. From a societal perspective, pipeline development planning processes should account for such externalities. We develop a multiobjective binary integer-programming model, called the Multi Objective Pipeline Siting (MOPS) model, to incorporate habitat externalities into pipeline development and to estimate the trade-offs between pipeline development costs and habitat impacts. We demonstrate the utility of the model using an application from Bradford and Susquehanna counties in northeastern Pennsylvania. We find that significant habitat impacts can be avoided for relatively low cost, but the avoidance of the additional habitat impacts becomes gradually and increasingly costly. For example, 10% of the habitat impacts can be avoided at less than a two percent pipeline cost increase relative to a configuration that ignores habitat impacts. MOPS or a similar model could be integrated into the pipeline siting and permitting process so oil and gas companies, communities, and states can identify cost-effective options for habitat conservation near shale gas development.

Policy Brief - What's in a Name? A Search for Alternatives to "VSL".

Benefit-cost analyses of environmental, health, and safety regulations often rely on an estimate of the value of statistical life (VSL) to calculate the aggregate benefits of reducing human mortality risk. The VSL represents the marginal rate of substitution between mortality risk and money. Although this concept is well-understood by economists, it is viewed by many non-economists as confusing technical jargon that borders on the immoral. Based on focus groups and a quantitative ranking exercise, this article describes a systematic approach for identifying and testing alternatives to the VSL terminology, with the goal of identifying an alternative term that more clearly communicates the VSL concept to a broad audience.

Managing Environmental Liability: An Evaluation of Bonding Requirements for Oil and Gas Wells in the United States.

Inactive oil and gas wells present an environmental hazard if not properly plugged. Upon drilling a well, operators are required to post a bond, which ensures that the operator has an incentive to plug and abandon (P&A) at the end of the well's life, and that, if the state is left with the liability of managing "orphaned" wells, it can cover the cost of P&A. Using data from 13 state agencies on their orphaned well plugging expenditures, we provide new estimates of P&A costs in the United States and compare them to bond amounts. Current state bonding requirements are insufficient to cover the average P&A cost of orphan wells in 11 of these 13 states. These should be reviewed and revised where necessary. We also examine the factors influencing P&A costs using detailed data on orphaned wells in Kansas. Given the variability of P&A costs, bonds would be more effective if they varied by factors that are meaningful in explaining P&A costs, such as well depth, location, and proximity to groundwater. State regulators can use the statistical approach developed in this paper to improve bonding requirements and to better predict the P&A costs of their orphaned wells.

Using a final ecosystem goods and services approach to support policy analysis.

Evaluating environmental policies requires estimating the impacts of policy-induced changes on ecological and human systems. Drawing connections between biophysical and economic models is complex due to the multidisciplinary nature of the task and the lack of data. Further, time and resource constraints typically limit our ability to conduct original valuation studies to fit the specific policy context. Policy analysts thus rely on methods to transfer and adapt value estimates from existing studies. To conduct end-to-end policy analysis, assumptions are needed to make the linkages between ecological and valuation models as well as to conduct benefit transfers. This paper discusses an approach that can potentially help a policy analyst to minimize assumptions and identify appropriate caveats. This approach focuses on what human beings truly value from ecosystems, or, in other words, metrics of Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS). our hypothesis is that the FEGS approach will help support policy analysis by drawing important linkages between ecological and economic models as well as by designing valuation studies that will be more conducive to benefit transfers. To examine this hypothesis, we use a selected set of existing valuation studies as case study examples, and we examine how the methods used in these studies compare with the FEGS approach. We find that the studies are not always consistent with the FEGS approach, in many cases due to data limitations. We illustrate ways in which using FEGS metrics can provide economists with a useful starting point for considering how the commodity can be defined and specified in the valuation study. Even if data limitations exist, a FEGS approach can help in determining whether the context in which the original study was conducted matches with the policy context. This can also help in determining the extent of uncertainty associated with the analysis and in providing transparent documentation that can be informative for policy makers.

Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.7 billion, or about $16 per year per household in the region. The study provides currently missing information about the ecological benefits from air pollution policies that is needed to evaluate such policies comprehensively. More broadly, the study also illustrates how integrated biogeochemical and economic assessments of multidimensional ecosystems can evaluate the relative benefits of different policy options that vary by scale and across ecosystem attributes.

Increased traffic accident rates associated with shale gas drilling in Pennsylvania.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between shale gas drilling and motor vehicle accident rates in Pennsylvania. METHODS: Using publicly available data on all reported vehicle crashes in Pennsylvania, we compared accident rates in counties with and without shale gas drilling, in periods with and without intermittent drilling (using data from 2005 to 2012). Counties with drilling were matched to non-drilling counties with similar population and traffic in the pre-drilling period. RESULTS: Heavily drilled counties in the north experienced 15-23% higher vehicle crash rates in 2010-2012 and 61-65% higher heavy truck crash rates in 2011-2012 than control counties. We estimated 5-23% increases in crash rates when comparing months with drilling and months without, but did not find significant effects on fatalities and major injury crashes. Heavily drilled counties in the southwest showed 45-47% higher rates of fatal and major injury crashes in 2012 than control counties, but monthly comparisons of drilling activity showed no significant differences associated with drilling. CONCLUSIONS: Vehicle accidents have measurably increased in conjunction with shale gas drilling.

Valuing vaccines using value of statistical life measures.

Vaccines are effective tools to improve human health, but resources to pursue all vaccine-related investments are lacking. Benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analysis are the two major methodological approaches used to assess the impact, efficiency, and distributional consequences of disease interventions, including those related to vaccinations. Childhood vaccinations can have important non-health consequences for productivity and economic well-being through multiple channels, including school attendance, physical growth, and cognitive ability. Benefit-cost analysis would capture such non-health benefits; cost-effectiveness analysis does not. Standard cost-effectiveness analysis may grossly underestimate the benefits of vaccines. A specific willingness-to-pay measure is based on the notion of the value of a statistical life (VSL), derived from trade-offs people are willing to make between fatality risk and wealth. Such methods have been used widely in the environmental and health literature to capture the broader economic benefits of improving health, but reservations remain about their acceptability. These reservations remain mainly because the methods may reflect ability to pay, and hence be discriminatory against the poor. However, willingness-to-pay methods can be made sensitive to income distribution by using appropriate income-sensitive distributional weights. Here, we describe the pros and cons of these methods and how they compare against standard cost-effectiveness analysis using pure health metrics, such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), in the context of vaccine priorities. We conclude that if appropriately used, willingness-to-pay methods will not discriminate against the poor, and they can capture important non-health benefits such as financial risk protection, productivity gains, and economic wellbeing.

Risks and risk governance in unconventional shale gas development.

A broad assessment is provided of the current state of knowledge regarding the risks associated with shale gas development and their governance. For the principal domains of risk, we identify observed and potential hazards and promising mitigation options to address them, characterizing current knowledge and research needs. Important unresolved research questions are identified for each area of risk; however, certain domains exhibit especially acute deficits of knowledge and attention, including integrated studies of public health, ecosystems, air quality, socioeconomic impacts on communities, and climate change. For these, current research and analysis are insufficient to either confirm or preclude important impacts. The rapidly evolving landscape of shale gas governance in the U.S. is also assessed, noting challenges and opportunities associated with the current decentralized (state-focused) system of regulation. We briefly review emerging approaches to shale gas governance in other nations, and consider new governance initiatives and options in the U.S. involving voluntary industry certification, comprehensive development plans, financial instruments, and possible future federal roles. In order to encompass the multiple relevant disciplines, address the complexities of the evolving shale gas system and reduce the many key uncertainties needed for improved management, a coordinated multiagency federal research effort will need to be implemented.

Shale gas development impacts on surface water quality in Pennsylvania.

Concern has been raised in the scientific literature about the environmental implications of extracting natural gas from deep shale formations, and published studies suggest that shale gas development may affect local groundwater quality. The potential for surface water quality degradation has been discussed in prior work, although no empirical analysis of this issue has been published. The potential for large-scale surface water quality degradation has affected regulatory approaches to shale gas development in some US states, despite the dearth of evidence. This paper conducts a large-scale examination of the extent to which shale gas development activities affect surface water quality. Focusing on the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, we estimate the effect of shale gas wells and the release of treated shale gas waste by permitted treatment facilities on observed downstream concentrations of chloride (Cl(-)) and total suspended solids (TSS), controlling for other factors. Results suggest that (i) the treatment of shale gas waste by treatment plants in a watershed raises downstream Cl(-) concentrations but not TSS concentrations, and (ii) the presence of shale gas wells in a watershed raises downstream TSS concentrations but not Cl(-) concentrations. These results can inform future voluntary measures taken by shale gas operators and policy approaches taken by regulators to protect surface water quality as the scale of this economically important activity increases.

Differences in water consumption choices in Canada: the role of socio-demographics, experiences, and perceptions of health risks.

In 2000 and 2001 Canadians were shocked by water contamination events that took place in two provinces. In 2004 we undertook an internet-based survey across Canada that asked respondents to identify in percentage terms their total drinking water consumption according to one of three sources: tap water, bottled water, and home-filtered water (either some type of container or an in-tap filter device). In this paper we investigate the factors that influence these choices and whether choosing to either filter or purchase water is linked to perceptions of health concerns with respect to tap water. A series of one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests suggest that the presence of children in a household and self-reported concern that tap water causes health problems lead to significantly greater consumption of bottled water or filtered water and significantly less tap water consumption. In order to examine these choices in a multivariate framework, we estimate a multinomial logit model. Factors yielding higher probabilities of a respondent being primarily a bottled water drinker (relative to the choice of tap water) include: higher income, unpleasant taste experiences with tap water, non-French-speaking, and being a male with children in one's household. Similar factors yield higher probabilities of a respondent being primarily a filtered tap water drinker. An important finding is that two key variables linking a person's health perceptions regarding tap water quality are significant factors leading to the choice of either filtered tap water or bottled water over tap water. They are: a variable showing the degree of health concerns a respondent has with respect to tap water and a second variable indicating whether the respondent believes bottled water is safer than tap water.

Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation.

BACKGROUND: Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies can provide ancillary benefits in terms of short-term improvements in air quality and associated health benefits. Several studies have analyzed the ancillary impacts of GHG policies for a variety of locations, pollutants, and policies. In this paper we review the existing evidence on ancillary health benefits relating to air pollution from various GHG strategies and provide a framework for such analysis. METHODS: We evaluate techniques used in different stages of such research for estimation of: (1) changes in air pollutant concentrations; (2) avoided adverse health endpoints; and (3) economic valuation of health consequences. The limitations and merits of various methods are examined. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for ancillary benefits analysis and related research gaps in the relevant disciplines. RESULTS: We found that to date most assessments have focused their analysis more heavily on one aspect of the framework (e.g., economic analysis). While a wide range of methods was applied to various policies and regions, results from multiple studies provide strong evidence that the short-term public health and economic benefits of ancillary benefits related to GHG mitigation strategies are substantial. Further, results of these analyses are likely to be underestimates because there are a number of important unquantified health and economic endpoints. CONCLUSION: Remaining challenges include integrating the understanding of the relative toxicity of particulate matter by components or sources, developing better estimates of public health and environmental impacts on selected sub-populations, and devising new methods for evaluating heretofore unquantified and non-monetized benefits.

Air pollution and public health: a guidance document for risk managers.

This guidance document is a reference for air quality policymakers and managers providing state-of-the-art, evidence-based information on key determinants of air quality management decisions. The document reflects the findings of five annual meetings of the NERAM (Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management) International Colloquium Series on Air Quality Management (2001-2006), as well as the results of supporting international research. The topics covered in the guidance document reflect critical science and policy aspects of air quality risk management including i) health effects, ii) air quality emissions, measurement and modeling, iii) air quality management interventions, and iv) clean air policy challenges and opportunities.

International perspectives on air quality: risk management principles for policy development--conference statement.

This statement is the result of discussions held at the 2005 NERAM IV Colloquium "International Perspectives on Air Quality: Risk Management Principles for Policy Development" and represents the collective views of 35 delegates, including international air quality policy analysts, academics, nongovernmental organizations, industry representatives, and decision makers from Mexico, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Hong Kong, and The Netherlands on principles for global air quality management. The objective of the colloquium was to "establish principles for air quality management based on the identification of international best practice in air quality policy development and implementation." This statement represents the main findings of a breakout group discussion session, presentations of an international panel of speakers from Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Hong Kong and views of the delegates expressed in plenary discussions. NERAM undertook a transparent process to try to ensure that the statement would accurately reflect the conference discussions, including documenting the proceedings and inviting delegates' comments on draft versions of the statement.

Challenges to managing air pollution.

There is never enough money, time, or resources to do all the things that need to be done--a statement that is true both for governments and individuals. For governments, this fact implies that (1) priorities need to be established; (2) goals are essential to be set to address these priorities, partly with an eye toward maximizing the net benefits to society; and (3) policies need to be implemented to reach those goals efficiently and effectively. In this article, major challenges of managing air pollution in each of these areas are examined.

Regional air quality: local and interstate impacts of NO(x) and SO2 emissions on ozone and fine particulate matter in the eastern United States.

While the U.S. air quality management system is largely designed and managed on a state level, many critical air quality problems are now recognized as regional. In particular, concentrations of two secondary pollutants, ozone and particulate matter, are often above regulated levels and can be dependent on emissions from upwind states. Here, impacts of statewide emissions on concentrations of local and downwind states' ozone and fine particulate matter are simulated for three seasonal periods in the eastern United States using a regional Eulerian photochemical model. Impacts of ground level NO(x) (e.g., mobile and area sources), elevated NO(x) (e.g., power plants and large industrial sources), and SO2 emissions are examined. An average of 77% of each state's ozone and PM(2.5) concentrations that are sensitive to the emissions evaluated here are found to be caused by emissions from other states. Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, Kentucky, and West Virginia are shown to have high concentrations of ozone and PM(2.5) caused by interstate emissions. When weighted by population, New York receives increased interstate contributions to these pollutants and contributions to ozone from local emissions are generally higher. When accounting for emission rates, combined states from the western side of the modeling domain and individual states such as Illinois, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, and Georgia are major contributors to interstate ozone. Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois are the major contributors to interstate PM(2.5). When accounting for an equivalent mass of emissions, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and Alabama contribute large fractions of these pollutants to other states.

Using expert elicitation to link foodborne illnesses in the United States to foods.

U.S. foodborne illness risk analysis would benefit greatly from better information on the relationship between the incidence of foodborne illness and exposure to foodborne pathogens. In this study, expert elicitation was used to attribute U.S. foodborne illnesses caused by the nine FoodNet pathogens, Toxoplasma gondii, and noroviruses to consumption of foods in 11 broad categories. Forty-two nationally recognized food safety experts responded to a formal written expert elicitation survey. For each pathogen, respondents gave their best estimate of the distribution of foodborne illnesses associated with each of the food categories and the 90% confidence bounds on each of their estimates. Based on the work of Paul Mead and his coauthors, food attribution percentage estimates from this study were used to attribute case, hospitalization, and death incidence estimates to foods according to pathogen. These attribution estimates indicate that 15 food-pathogen pairs account for 90% of the illnesses, 25 pairs account for 90% of hospitalizations, and 21 pairs account for 90% of deaths.