A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. CONCLUSION: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.

Augmentation mammoplasty and "silicone-osis".

BACKGROUND: Claims have been made that breast augmentation induces a previously unrecognized disease ("silicone-osis"). AIMS: To confirm the existence of "silicone-osis", qualify and quantify its characteristics. METHODS: In this population-based retrospective cohort study, the health status of 458 female Sydney residents who had augmentation mammoplasty for cosmetic reasons ("augmentation mammoplasty-exposed" or "exposed" cohort) between 1979 and 1983 was compared with the health status of 687 female Sydney residents who had non-silicone-associated plastic surgery ("augmentation mammoplasty-nonexposed" or "non-exposed" cohort). Both groups were matched for age (+/- 5 years), year of plastic surgery (+/- 2 years), plastic surgeon, anaesthetist and mode of anaesthesia. Outcome measures comprised dummy symptoms to assess reporting bias, as well as symptoms and symptom clusters from a comprehensive 78-symptom list. RESULTS: Dummy variables were not over-reported by the exposed cohort. The following individual symptoms developed more commonly in the exposed cohort after index plastic surgery: "memory loss/confusion", "altered bowel habit", "chest pain made worse by deep breathing", "shortness of breath after walking up 10 steps", "breast pain", "sweating mainly at night" and "tunnel vision". Of eight identified symptom clusters, three were rejected as biologically unimportant: "joint swelling of the bunion joint", "haemorrhoids" and "breast lumps" (the latter two occurring more commonly in the non-exposed cohort). In contrast, five symptom clusters were thought to have potential biological importance and occurred more commonly in the exposed cohort. The symptom "night sweats" was common to all five clusters, and comprised the sole symptom in one instance. The other four multisymptom clusters were also characterized by "low energy" (lethargy) and "pins and needles", whereas "breast pain", "impaired memory", "muscle pain" and "reflux", occurred in three of the four clusters. CONCLUSION: Cluster analysis suggested the existence of a multisystem disorder occurring more commonly in the exposed cohort and characterized by night sweats, lethargy, breast pain, impaired mentation, reflux, paraesthesiae, hand muscle weakness and myalgia. The argument against this being a new disease entity --"silicone-osis"-- however, was its presence, albeit at lower frequency, in the silicone-unexposed cohort. Thus this study did not confirm the existence of a new disease entity "silicone-osis" uniquely and causally associated with silicone exposure. The possible interpretations of these findings are discussed.

Women's health after plastic surgery.

BACKGROUND: Allegations that exposure to endogenous silicone, especially related to breast implants, might be causally related to connective tissue disease originated from case studies. More recent comparative studies have implied no such increased risk. The aims of the present study were to compare the prevalence and/or incidence of autoimmune and connective tissue disorders in a population-based cohort of female Sydney residents stratified by augmentation mammoplasty status. METHODS: In this population-based retrospective cohort study, the health status of female Sydney residents who had augmentation mammoplasty for cosmetic reasons between 1979 and 1983 was compared with that of female Sydney residents who had non-silicone-associated plastic surgery over the same period. Both groups were matched for age (+/- 5 years), year of plastic surgery (+/- 2 years), plastic surgeon, anaesthetist and mode of anaesthesia. Outcome measures comprised rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic sclerosis, sicca symptoms polymyositis/ dermatomyositis, connective tissue disease overlap, digital vasospasm, abnormal nailfold capillaroscopy, elevated antinuclear antibody titre, carpal tunnel syndrome, tendonitis, osteoarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, livedo reticularis, thyroid disease, multiple sclerosis, axillary lymphadenopathy, fibromyalgia and breast carcinoma. RESULTS: There was no difference in the occurrence of connective tissue diseases or connective tissue disease-related parameters, thyroid disorders, fibromyalgia or multiple sclerosis between cohorts. However, axillary adenopathy and low titre positive antinuclear antibody (ANA) occurred with a significantly greater frequency in the exposed cohort (odds ratio (OR) = 3.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.10-5.84 and OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.03-1.62, respectively). Axillary adenopathy correlated with capsular contracture (relative risk (RR) = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.22-3.51) and also the self-reported development of digital vasospasm (RR = 3.20, 95% CI = 1.46-7.03) after breast augmentation. CONCLUSIONS: No association was found between augmentation mammoplasty exposure and various connective tissue diseases and/or their related features. However, axillary adenopathy and low titre ANA were detected more frequently in the exposed cohort. Women with axillary adenopathy were more likely to have breast capsular contracture and report digital vasospasm post-dating surgery. Given comparable frequencies of higher titre ANA of both cohorts, the finding of elevations of low titre ANA is of dubious clinical significance.