Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change.

Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.

Burn severity and land-use legacy influence bird abundance in the Atlantic-Mediterranean biogeographic transition.

Fire regimes in mountain landscapes of southern Europe have been shifting from their baselines due to rural abandonment and fire exclusion policies. Understanding the effects of fire on biodiversity is paramount to implement adequate management. Herein, we evaluated the relative role of burn severity and heterogeneity on bird abundance in an abandoned mountain range located in the biogeographic transition between the Eurosiberian and Mediterranean region (the Natural Park 'Baixa Limia-Serra do Xurés'). We surveyed the bird community in 206 census plots distributed across the Natural Park, both inside and outside areas affected by wildfires over the last 11 years (from 2010 to 2020). We used satellite images of Sentinel 2 and Landsat missions to quantify the burn severity and heterogeneity of each fire within each surveyed plot. We also accounted for the past land use (forestry or agropastoral use) by using a land cover information for year 2010 derived from satellite image classification. We recorded 1735 contacts from 28 bird species. Our models, fitted by using GLMs with Poisson error distribution (pseudo-R2-average of 0.22 ± 0.13), showed that up to 71% of the modeled species were linearly correlated with at least one attribute of the fire regime. The spatiotemporal variation in burnt area and severity were relevant factors for explaining the local abundance of our target species (39% of the species; Akaike weights >0.75). We also found a quadratic effect of at least one fire regime attribute on bird abundance for 60% of the modeled species. The past land use, and its legacy after 10 years, was critical to understand the role of fire (Akaike weights >0.75). Our findings confirm the importance of incorporating remotely sensed indicators of burn severity into the toolkit of decision makers to accurately anticipate the response of birds to fire management.

Incorporating fire-smartness into agricultural policies reduces suppression costs and ecosystem services damages from wildfires.

In southern Europe, land abandonment and an unbalanced investment toward fire suppression instead of prevention has gradually increased wildfire risk, which calls for a paradigm change in fire management policies. Here we combined scenario analysis, fire landscape modelling, and economic tools to identify which land-use policies would reduce the expected wildfire-related losses in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve 'Gerês-Xurés' (Spain-Portugal). To do so, we applied the least-cost-plus-net-value-change approach and estimated net changes in wildfire damages based on their implications for the 2010-2050 period and five ecosystem services: agriculture, pasture, timber, recreation and climate regulation. Four land-use scenarios were considered: (1) Business as Usual (BAU); (2) fire-smart, fostering more fire-resistant (less flammable) and/or fire-resilient landscapes (fire-smart); (3) High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf), wherein the abandonment of extensive agriculture is reversed; and (4) a combination of HNVf and fire-smart. HNVf is the best scenario for suppression cost savings, but it generates the lowest net present value of societal benefits from climate regulation. In fact, the most efficient scenario with the lowest societal discounted net suppression costs and change on ecosystem services damages is the HNVf + fire-smart scenario, as it also generates suppression cost savings from agricultural expansion, and lead to a significant reduction in damages on timber and recreational benefits. Therefore, reverting land abandonment through recultivation and promoting fire-resistant tree species is the most efficient way to reduce wildfire hazard. In this sense, payments for ecosystem services should reward farmers and landowners for their role in wildfire prevention. This study improves the understanding of the financial and societal benefits derived from reducing fire suppression spending and ecosystem services damage by undertaking fire-smart land-use strategies, which can be essential to enhance local stakeholders' support for Payments of Ecosystem Services policies for wildfire prevention.

Climate- and fire-smart landscape scenarios call for redesigning protection regimes to achieve multiple management goals.

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme ("Core area", "Buffer zone" and "Transition area") to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to: i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions.

Caution Is Needed When Using Niche Models to Infer Changes in Species Abundance: The Case of Two Sympatric Raptor Populations.

Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Montagu's harrier (Circus pygargus), surveyed in 1997 and 2017 in an upland moor area in northwestern Spain. The ENMs performed very well for both species (with area under the ROC curve and true skill statistic values of up to 0.9 and 0.75). The presence of both species was mainly correlated with heathlands, although the normalized difference water index derived from Landsat images was the most important for hen harrier, indicating a greater preference of this species for wet heaths and peat bogs. The findings showed that ENM-derived habitat suitability was significantly correlated with the species abundance, thus reinforcing the use of ENMs as a proxy for species abundance. However, the temporal variation in species abundance was not significantly explained by changes in habitat suitability predicted by the ENMs, indicating the need for caution when using these types of models to infer changes in population abundance.

Climatic variables and ecological modelling data for birds, amphibians and reptiles in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain).

BACKGROUND: Climate change has been widely accepted as one of the major threats for global biodiversity and understanding its potential effects on species distribution is crucial to optimise conservation planning in future scenarios under global change. Integrating detailed climatic data across spatial and temporal scales into species distribution modelling can help to predict potential changes in biodiversity. Consequently, this type of data can be useful for developing efficient biodiversity management and conservation planning. The provision of such data becomes even more important in highly biodiverse regions, currently suffering from climatic and landscape changes. The Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (BRMI; Portugal-Spain) is one of the most relevant reserves for wildlife in Europe. This highly diverse region is of great ecological and socio-economical interest, suffering from synergistic processes of rural land abandonment and climatic instabilities that currently threaten local biodiversity.Aiming to optimise conservation planning in the Reserve, we provide a complete dataset of historical and future climate models (1 x 1 km) for the BRMI, used to build a series of distribution models for 207 vertebrate species. These models are projected for 2050 under two climate change scenarios. The climatic suitability of 52% and 57% of the species are predicted to decrease under the intermediate and extreme climatic scenarios, respectively. These models constitute framework data for improving local conservation planning in the Reserve, which should be further supported by implementing climate and land-use change factors to increase the accuracy of future predictions of species distributions in the study area. NEW INFORMATION: Herein, we provide a complete dataset of state-of-the-art historical and future climate model simulations, generated by global-regional climate model chains, with climatic variables resolved at a high spatial resolution (1 × 1 km) over the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica. Additionally, a complete series of distribution models for 207 species (168 birds, 24 reptiles and 15 amphibians) under future (2050) climate change scenarios is delivered, which constitute framework data for improving local conservation planning in the reserve.

Tree planting: A double-edged sword to fight climate change in an era of megafires.

Climate regulation strategies based on forest restoration could pose an increase in fire risk, especially under drier and warmer conditions over large regions of Europe, impacting climate, the environment and human health. Climate-smarter options, such as wetlands restoration or recovery of grassland, that provide similar benefits for climate but also develop less flammable landscape is a more suitable option for these regions in Europe and elsewhere facing similar challenges.

Using fire to enhance rewilding when agricultural policies fail.

Rewilding has been proposed as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation in abandoned landscapes. However, rewilding is challenged by the increasing fire risk associated with more flammable landscapes, and the loss of open-habitat specialist species. Contrastingly, supporting High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf) has been also highlighted as a valuable option, but the effective implementation of agricultural policies often fails leading to uncertain scenarios wherein the effects of wildfire management remain largely unexplored. Herein, we simulated fire-landscape dynamics to evaluate how fire suppression scenarios affect fire regime and biodiversity (102 species of vertebrates) under rewilding and HNVf policies in the future (2050), in a transnational biosphere reserve (Gerês-Xurés Mountains, Portugal-Spain). Rewilding and HNVf scenarios were modulated by three different levels of fire suppression effectiveness. Then, we quantified scenario effects on fire regime (burned and suppressed areas) and biodiversity (habitat suitability change for 2050). Simulations confirm HNVf as a long-term opportunity for fire suppression (up to 30,000 ha of additional suppressed areas between 2031 and 2050 in comparison to rewilding scenario) and for conservation (benefiting around 60% of species). Rewilding benefits some species (20%), including critically endangered, vulnerable and endemic taxa, while several species (33%) also profit from open habitats created by fire. Although HNVf remains the best scenario, rewilding reinforced by low fire suppression management may provide a nature-based solution when societal support through agricultural policies fails.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity.

Integrating intraseasonal grassland dynamics in cross-scale distribution modeling to support waterbird recovery plans.

Despite much discussion about the utility of remote sensing for effective conservation, the inclusion of these technologies in species recovery plans remains largely anecdotal. We developed a modeling approach for the integration of local, spatially measured ecosystem functional dynamics into a species distribution modeling (SDM) framework in which other ecologically relevant factors are modeled separately at broad scales. To illustrate the approach, we incorporated intraseasonal water-vegetation dynamics into a cross-scale SDM for the Common Snipe (Gallinago gallinago), which is highly dependent on water and vegetation dynamics. The Common Snipe is an Iberian grassland waterbird characteristic of European agricultural meadows and a member of one of the most threatened bird guilds. The intraseasonal dynamics of water content of vegetation were measured using the standard deviation of the normalized difference water index time series computed from bimonthly images of the Sentinel-2 satellite. The recovery plan for the Common Snipe in Galicia (northwestern Iberian Peninsula) provided an opportunity to apply our modeling framework. Model accuracy in predicting the species' distribution at a regional scale (resulting from integration of downscaled climate projections with regional habitat-topographic suitability models) was very high (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.981 and Boyce's index of 0.971). Local water-vegetation dynamic models, based exclusively on Sentinel-2 imagery, were good predictors (AUC of 0.849 and Boyce's index of 0.976). The predictive power improved (AUC of 0.92 and Boyce's index of 0.98) when local model predictions were restricted to areas identified by the continental and regional models as priorities for conservation. Our models also performed well (AUC of 0.90 and Boyce's index of 0.93) when projected to updated water-vegetation conditions. Our modeling framework enabled incorporation of key ecosystem processes closely related to water and carbon cycles while accounting for other factors ecologically relevant to endangered grassland waterbirds across different scales, allowed identification of priority areas for conservation, and provided an opportunity for cost-effective recovery planning by monitoring management effectiveness from space.

Integración de las Dinámicas Intraestacionales de los Pastizales al Modelado de la Distribución a través de Diversas Escalas para Respaldar los Planes de Recuperación de Aves Acuáticas Resumen A pesar A pesar del potencial de la teledetección para la conservación, la inclusión de estas tecnologías en los planes de recuperación de especies es muy poco habitual. En este trabajo, desarrollamos una estrategia de modelado para la integración de dinámicas ecosistémicas funcionales locales medidas espacialmente dentro de un marco de trabajo del modelado de distribución de especies (MDE), en el cual otros factores ecológicamente relevantes se modelan por separado y a escalas más generales. Para ilustrar la estrategia incorporamos las dinámicas Intraestacionales de la vegetación acuática en un MDE multiescala escalas para la agachadiza común (Gallinago gallinago), la cual es sumamente dependiente de las dinámicas del agua y la vegetación. La agachadiza común es un ave acuática de los pastizales ibéricos, característica de las praderas agrícolas de Europa y miembro de uno de los grupos de aves más amenazados. Medimos las dinámicas intraestacionales del contenido de agua de la vegetación con la desviación estándar de la serie temporal del índice de diferencia normalizada de agua a partir de las imágenes bimensuales del satélite Sentinel-2. El plan de recuperación para la agachadiza común en Galicia (noroeste de la península ibérica) proporcionó una oportunidad para aplicar nuestro marco de trabajo. La capacidad del modelo para predecir la distribución de la especie a una escala regional (resultante de la integración de proyecciones climáticas a escala reducida con modelos regionales de idoneidad hábitat-topografía) fue muy alta (área bajo la curva [AUC] de 0.981 e índice de Boyce de 0.971). El poder de predicción aumentó (AUC de 0.92 e índice de Boyce de 0.98) cuando las predicciones de los modelos locales estuvieron restringidos a áreas identificadas por los modelos continentales y regionales como prioritarias para la conservación. Nuestros modelos también tuvieron un buen desempeño (AUC de 0.90 e índice de Boyce de 0.93) cuando los proyectamos hacia las condiciones actualizadas de vegetación acuática. Nuestro marco de trabajo permitió la incorporación de procesos ecosistémicos clave intimamente relacionados con los ciclos del agua y del carbono a la vez que representaba otros factores ecológicamente relevantes para las aves acuáticas amenazadas de pastizal, a través de diferentes escalas. También permitió la identificación de áreas prioritarias para la conservación y proporcionó oportunidades para la planificación rentable de la recuperación al monitorear la efectividad del manejo desde el espacio.

Effects of species traits and environmental predictors on performance and transferability of ecological niche models.

The ability of ecological niche models (ENMs) to produce robust predictions for different time frames (i.e. temporal transferability) may be hindered by a lack of ecologically relevant predictors. Model performance may also be affected by species traits, which may reflect different responses to processes controlling species distribution. In this study, we tested four primary hypotheses involving the role of species traits and environmental predictors in ENM performance and transferability. We compared the predictive accuracy of ENMs based upon (1) climate, (2) land-use/cover (LULC) and (3) ecosystem functional attributes (EFAs), and (4) the combination of these factors for 27 bird species within and beyond the time frame of model calibration. The combination of these factors significantly increased both model performance and transferability, highlighting the need to integrate climate, LULC and EFAs to improve biodiversity projections. However, the overall model transferability was low (being only acceptable for less than 25% of species), even under a hierarchical modelling approach, which calls for great caution in the use of ENMs to predict bird distributions under global change scenarios. Our findings also indicate that positive effects of species traits on predictive accuracy within model calibration are not necessarily translated into higher temporal transferability.

Hindcasting the impacts of land-use changes on bird communities with species distribution models of Bird Atlas data.

Habitat loss and degradation induced by human development are among the major threats to biodiversity worldwide. In this study, we tested our ability to predict the response of bird communities (128 species) to land-use changes in southern Quebec (~483,100 km2 ) over the last 30 yr (between 1984-1989 and 2010-2014) by using species distribution models (299,302 occurrences in 30,408 locations) from a hindcasting perspective. Results were grouped by functional guilds to infer potential impacts on ecosystem services, and to relate model transferability (i.e., ability of our models to be generalized to other times and scales) to specific functional and life-history traits. Overall, our models were able to accurately predict, both in space and time, habitat suitability for 69% of species, especially for granivorous, nonmigrant, tree-nesting species, and species that are tied to agricultural areas under intensive use. These findings indicate that model transferability depends upon specific functional and life-history traits, providing further evidence that species' ecologies affect the ability of models to accurately predict bird distributions. Declining bird species were mostly short-distance migrants that were associated with open habitats (agricultural and nonproductive forest) with aerial insectivorous or granivorous diets, which may be related to agricultural intensification and land abandonment. Land-use changes were positive for some forest bird species that were mainly associated with mixed and deciduous forests, generalist diets and tree-nesting strategies. Yet cavity-nesting birds have suffered substantial reductions in their distributions, suggesting that cumulative effects of intensive logging and wildfires on mature forests pose a threat for forest-specialist species. Habitat suitability changes predicted by our coarse-scale species distribution models partially agreed with the long-term trends reported by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Our findings confirm land-use change as a key driving force for shaping bird communities in southern Quebec, together with the need to explicitly incorporate it into global change scenarios that better inform decision-makers on conservation and management.

The positive carbon stocks-biodiversity relationship in forests: co-occurrence and drivers across five subclimates.

Carbon storage in forests and its ability to offset global greenhouse gas emissions, as well as biodiversity and its capacity to support ecosystem functions and services, are often considered separately in landscape planning. However, the potential synergies between them are currently poorly understood. Identifying the spatial patterns and factors driving their co-occurrence across different climatic zones is critical to more effectively conserve forest ecosystems at the regional level. Here, we integrated information of National Forest Inventories and Breeding Bird Atlases across Europe and North America (Spain and Quebec, respectively), covering five subclimates (steppe, dry Mediterranean, humid Mediterranean, boreal, and temperate). In particular, this study aimed to (1) determine the spatial patterns of both forest carbon stocks and biodiversity (bird richness, tree richness, and overall biodiversity) and the factors that influence them; (2) establish the relationships between forest carbon stocks and biodiversity; and (3) define and characterize the areas of high (hotspots) and low (coldspots) values of carbon and biodiversity, and ultimately quantify their spatial overlap. Our results show that the factors affecting carbon and biodiversity vary between regions and subclimates. The highest values of carbon and biodiversity were found in northern Spain (humid Mediterranean subclimate) and southern Quebec (temperate subclimate) where there was more carbon as climate conditions were less limiting. High density and structural diversity simultaneously favored carbon stocks, tree, and overall biodiversity, especially in isolated and mountainous areas, often associated with steeper slopes and low accessibility. In addition, the relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity was positive in both regions and all subclimates, being stronger where climate is a limiting factor for forest growth. The spatial overlap between hotspots of carbon and biodiversity provides an excellent opportunity for landscape planning to maintain carbon stocks and conserve biodiversity. The variables positively affecting carbon and biodiversity were also driving the hotspots of both carbon and biodiversity, emphasizing the viability of "win-win" solutions. Our results highlight the need to jointly determine the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and biodiversity for an effective and sustainable planning of forest landscapes that simultaneously support conservation and mitigate climate change.

The contribution of Earth observation technologies to the reporting obligations of the Habitats Directive and Natura 2000 network in a protected wetland.

BACKGROUND: Wetlands are highly productive systems that supply a host of ecosystem services and benefits. Nonetheless, wetlands have been drained and filled to provide sites for building houses and roads and for establishing farmland, with an estimated worldwide loss of 64-71% of wetland systems since 1900. In Europe, the Natura 2000 network is the cornerstone of current conservation strategies. Every six years, Member States must report on implementation of the European Habitats Directive. The present study aims to illustrate how Earth observation (EO) technologies can contribute to the reporting obligations of the Habitats Directive and Natura 2000 network in relation to wetland ecosystems. METHODS: We analysed the habitat changes that occurred in a protected wetland (in NW Spain), 13 years after its designation as Natura 2000 site (i.e., between 2003 and 2016). For this purpose, we analysed optical multispectral bands and water-related and vegetation indices derived from data acquired by Landsat 7 TM, ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI sensors. To quantify the uncertainty arising from the algorithm used in the classification procedure and its impact on the change analysis, we compared the habitat change estimates obtained using 10 different classification algorithms and two ensemble classification approaches (majority and weighted vote). RESULTS: The habitat maps derived from the ensemble approaches showed an overall accuracy of 94% for the 2003 data (Kappa index of 0.93) and of 95% for the 2016 data (Kappa index of 0.94). The change analysis revealed important temporal dynamics between 2003 and 2016 for the habitat classes identified in the study area. However, these changes depended on the classification algorithm used. The habitat maps obtained from the two ensemble classification approaches showed a reduction in habitat classes dominated by salt marshes and meadows (24.6-26.5%), natural and semi-natural grasslands (25.9-26.5%) or sand dunes (20.7-20.9%) and an increase in forest (31-34%) and reed bed (60.7-67.2%) in the study area. DISCUSSION: This study illustrates how EO-based approaches might be particularly useful to help (1) managers to reach decisions in relation to conservation, (2) Member States to comply with the requirements of the European Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), and (3) the European Commission to monitor the conservation status of the natural habitat types of community interest listed in Annex I of the Directive. Nonetheless, the uncertainty arising from the large variety of classification methods used may prevent local managers from basing their decisions on EO data. Our results shed light on how different classification algorithms may provide very different quantitative estimates, especially for water-dependent habitats. Our findings confirm the need to account for this uncertainty by applying ensemble classification approaches, which improve the accuracy and stability of remote sensing image classification.

Monitoring protected areas from space: A multi-temporal assessment using raptors as biodiversity surrogates.

Monitoring protected areas (PAs) is essential for systematic evaluation of their effectiveness in terms of habitat protection, preservation and representativeness. This study illustrates how the use of species distribution models that combine remote sensing data and information about biodiversity surrogates can contribute to develop a systematic protocol for monitoring PAs. In particular, we assessed the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000) network, for conserving and preserving the representativeness of seven raptor species in a highly-dynamic landscape in northwest Spain between 2001 and 2014. We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the N2000 network by using the total area under protection as a proxy for conservation costs. Overall, the N2000 network was found to poorly represent the habitats of the raptor species. Despite the low representativeness, this network showed a high degree of effectiveness due to increased overall habitat availability for generalist and forest specialist species between 2001 and 2014. Nevertheless, additional protected areas should be established in the near future to increase their representativeness, and thus ensure the protection of open-habitat specialist species and their priority habitats. In addition, proactive conservation measures in natural and semi-natural ecosystems (in particular, montane heathlands) will be essential for long-term protection of Montagu's harrier (species listed in the Annex I of the Bird Directive), and thus complying with the current European Environmental Legislation. This study sheds light on how the development and application of new protected area indices based on the combined use of freely-available satellite data and species distribution models may contribute substantially to the cost-efficiency of the PA monitoring systems, and to the 'Fitness Check' process of EU Nature Directives.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.

Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.