Mammographic density mediates the protective effect of early-life body size on breast cancer risk.

The unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk may be mediated via mammographic density (MD). Here, we investigate a complex relationship between adiposity in childhood and adulthood, puberty onset, MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)), and their effects on breast cancer. We use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable MR to estimate the total and direct effects of adiposity and age at menarche on MD phenotypes. Childhood adiposity has a decreasing effect on DA, while adulthood adiposity increases NDA. Later menarche increases DA/PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect is attenuated. Next, we examine the effect of MD on breast cancer risk. DA/PD have a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD SNPs estimates are heterogeneous, and additional analyses suggest that different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, we evaluate the role of MD in the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer. Mediation MR analysis shows that 56% (95% CIs [32%-79%]) of this effect is mediated via DA. Our finding suggests that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, subsequently reducing breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is important for identifying potential intervention targets.

Characterizing the Causal Pathway From Childhood Adiposity to Right Heart Physiology and Pulmonary Circulation Using Lifecourse Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiological studies have reported an association between childhood adiposity and altered cardiac morphology and function in later life. However, whether this is due to a direct consequence of being overweight during childhood has been difficult to establish, particularly as accounting for other measures of body composition throughout the lifecourse can be exceptionally challenging. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, we used human genetics to investigate this using a causal inference technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. This approach allowed us to evaluate the effect of childhood body size on 11 measures of right heart and pulmonary circulation independent of other anthropometric traits at various stages in the lifecourse. We found strong evidence that childhood body size has a direct effect on an enlarged right heart structure in later life (eg, right ventricular end-diastolic volume: ß=0.24 [95% CI, 0.15-0.33]; P=3×10-7) independent of adulthood body size. In contrast, childhood body size effects on maximum ascending aorta diameter attenuated upon accounting for body size in adulthood, suggesting that this effect is likely attributed to individuals remaining overweight into later life. Effects of childhood body size on pulmonary artery traits and measures of right atrial function became weaker upon accounting for adulthood fat-free mass and childhood height, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that, although childhood body size has a long-term influence on an enlarged heart structure in adulthood, associations with the other structural components of the cardiovascular system and their function may be largely attributed to body composition at other stages in the lifecourse.

Impact of weight loss on cancer-related proteins in serum: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial of individuals with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development. METHODS: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers. FINDINGS: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions. INTERPRETATION: Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk. FUNDING: The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome.

Ultra-processed foods, adiposity and risk of head and neck cancer and oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study: a mediation analysis.

PURPOSE: To investigate the role of adiposity in the associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and head and neck cancer (HNC) and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: Our study included 450,111 EPIC participants. We used Cox regressions to investigate the associations between the consumption of UPFs and HNC and OAC risk. A mediation analysis was performed to assess the role of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) in these associations. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated accidental death as a negative control outcome. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14.13 ± 3.98 years, 910 and 215 participants developed HNC and OAC, respectively. A 10% g/d higher consumption of UPFs was associated with an increased risk of HNC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.34) and OAC (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.47). WHR mediated 5% (95% CI 3-10%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and HNC risk, while BMI and WHR, respectively, mediated 13% (95% CI 6-53%) and 15% (95% CI 8-72%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and OAC risk. UPF consumption was positively associated with accidental death in the negative control analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We reaffirmed that higher UPF consumption is associated with greater risk of HNC and OAC in EPIC. The proportion mediated via adiposity was small. Further research is required to investigate other mechanisms that may be at play (if there is indeed any causal effect of UPF consumption on these cancers).

Profiling the genome and proteome of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease identifies potential therapeutic targets.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affects over 25% of the population and currently has no effective treatments. Plasma proteins with causal evidence may represent promising drug targets. We aimed to identify plasma proteins in the causal pathway of MASLD and explore their interaction with obesity. METHODS: We analysed 2,941 plasma proteins in 43,978 European participants from UK Biobank. We performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) for all MASLD-associated proteins and created the largest MASLD GWAS (109,885 cases/1,014,923 controls). We performed Mendelian Randomization (MR) and integrated proteins and their encoding genes in MASLD ranges to identify candidate causal proteins. We then validated them through independent replication, exome sequencing, liver imaging, bulk and single-cell gene expression, liver biopsies, pathway, and phenome-wide data. We explored the role of obesity by MR and multivariable MR across proteins, body mass index, and MASLD. RESULTS: We found 929 proteins associated with MASLD, reported five novel genetic loci associated with MASLD, and identified 17 candidate MASLD protein targets. We identified four novel targets for MASLD (CD33, GRHPR, HMOX2, and SCG3), provided protein evidence supporting roles of AHCY, FCGR2B, ORM1, and RBKS in MASLD, and validated nine previously known targets. We found that CD33, FCGR2B, ORM1, RBKS, and SCG3 mediated the association of obesity and MASLD, and HMOX2, ORM1, and RBKS had effect on MASLD independent of obesity. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified new protein targets in the causal pathway of MASLD, providing new insights into the multi-omics architecture and pathophysiology of MASLD. These findings advise further therapeutic interventions for MASLD.

A lifecourse Mendelian randomization study uncovers age-dependent effects of adiposity on asthma risk.

Evaluating the long-term consequences of childhood lifestyle factors on asthma risk can be exceptionally challenging in epidemiology given that cases are typically diagnosed at various timepoints throughout the lifecourse. In this study, we used human genetic data to evaluate the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity on risk of pediatric (n = 13,962 cases) and adult-onset asthma (n = 26,582 cases) with a common set of controls (n = 300,671) using a technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. We found that childhood adiposity directly increases risk of pediatric asthma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.03-1.37, p = 0.03), but limited evidence that it has an effect on adult-onset asthma after accounting for adiposity during adulthood (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.93-1.17, p = 0.39). Conversely, there was strong evidence that adulthood adiposity increases asthma risk in midlife (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.28-1.46, P = 7 × 10-12). These findings suggest that childhood and adulthood adiposity are independent risk factors for asthma at each of their corresponding timepoints in the lifecourse.

Methodological approaches, challenges, and opportunities in the application of Mendelian randomisation to lifecourse epidemiology: A systematic literature review.

Diseases diagnosed in adulthood may have antecedents throughout (including prenatal) life. Gaining a better understanding of how exposures at different stages in the lifecourse influence health outcomes is key to elucidating the potential benefits of disease prevention strategies. Mendelian randomisation (MR) is increasingly used to estimate causal effects of exposures across the lifecourse on later life outcomes. This systematic literature review explores MR methods used to perform lifecourse investigations and reviews previous work that has utilised MR to elucidate the effects of factors acting at different stages of the lifecourse. We conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Medline and MedRXiv databases. Thirteen methodological studies were identified. Four studies focused on the impact of time-varying exposures in the interpretation of "standard" MR techniques, five presented methods for repeat measures of the same exposure, and four described methodological approaches to handling multigenerational exposures. A further 127 studies presented the results of an applied research question. Over half of these estimated effects in a single generation and were largely confined to the exploration of questions regarding body composition. The remaining mostly estimated maternal effects. There is a growing body of research focused on the development and application of MR methods to address lifecourse research questions. The underlying assumptions require careful consideration and the interpretation of results rely on select conditions. Whilst we do not advocate for a particular strategy, we encourage practitioners to make informed decisions on how to approach a research question in this field with a solid understanding of the limitations present and how these may be affected by the research question, modelling approach, instrument selection, and data availability.

Time-varying and tissue-dependent effects of adiposity on leptin levels: A Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Findings from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are conventionally interpreted as lifelong effects, which typically do not provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this study, we apply two recently developed MR approaches (known as 'lifecourse' and 'tissue-partitioned' MR) to investigate lifestage-specific effects and tissues of action in the relationship between adiposity and circulating leptin levels. Methods: Genetic instruments for childhood and adult adiposity were incorporated into a multivariable MR (MVMR) framework to estimate lifestage-specific effects on leptin levels measured during early life (mean age: 10 y) in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and in adulthood (mean age: 55 y) using summary-level data from the deCODE Health study. This was followed by partitioning body mass index (BMI) instruments into those whose effects are putatively mediated by gene expression in either subcutaneous adipose or brain tissues, followed by using MVMR to simultaneously estimate their separate effects on childhood and adult leptin levels. Results: There was strong evidence that childhood adiposity has a direct effect on leptin levels at age 10 y in the lifecourse (ß = 1.10 SD change in leptin levels, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30, p=6 × 10-28), whereas evidence of an indirect effect was found on adulthood leptin along the causal pathway involving adulthood body size (ß = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62-0.86, p=1 × 10-33). Tissue-partitioned MR analyses provided evidence to suggest that BMI exerts its effect on leptin levels during both childhood and adulthood via brain tissue-mediated pathways (ß = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.22-1.36, p=6 × 10-3 and ß = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.69, p=1 × 10-7, respectively). Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate the use of lifecourse MR to disentangle direct and indirect effects of early-life exposures on time-varying complex outcomes. Furthermore, by integrating tissue-specific data, we highlight the etiological importance of appetite regulation in the effect of adiposity on leptin levels. Funding: This work was supported by the Integrative Epidemiology Unit, which receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the University of Bristol (MC_UU_00011/1).

Plasma proteomic associations with genetics and health in the UK Biobank.

The Pharma Proteomics Project is a precompetitive biopharmaceutical consortium characterizing the plasma proteomic profiles of 54,219 UK Biobank participants. Here we provide a detailed summary of this initiative, including technical and biological validations, insights into proteomic disease signatures, and prediction modelling for various demographic and health indicators. We present comprehensive protein quantitative trait locus (pQTL) mapping of 2,923 proteins that identifies 14,287 primary genetic associations, of which 81% are previously undescribed, alongside ancestry-specific pQTL mapping in non-European individuals. The study provides an updated characterization of the genetic architecture of the plasma proteome, contextualized with projected pQTL discovery rates as sample sizes and proteomic assay coverages increase over time. We offer extensive insights into trans pQTLs across multiple biological domains, highlight genetic influences on ligand-receptor interactions and pathway perturbations across a diverse collection of cytokines and complement networks, and illustrate long-range epistatic effects of ABO blood group and FUT2 secretor status on proteins with gastrointestinal tissue-enriched expression. We demonstrate the utility of these data for drug discovery by extending the genetic proxied effects of protein targets, such as PCSK9, on additional endpoints, and disentangle specific genes and proteins perturbed at loci associated with COVID-19 susceptibility. This public-private partnership provides the scientific community with an open-access proteomics resource of considerable breadth and depth to help to elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying proteo-genomic discoveries and accelerate the development of biomarkers, predictive models and therapeutics1.

The mediating role of mammographic density in the protective effect of early-life adiposity on breast cancer risk: a multivariable Mendelian randomization study.

Observational studies suggest that mammographic density (MD) may have a role in the unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk. Here, we investigated a complex and interlinked relationship between puberty onset, adiposity, MD, and their effects on breast cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR). We estimated the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity, and age at menarche on MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)) using MR and multivariable MR (MVMR), allowing us to disentangle their total and direct effects. Next, we examined the effect of MD on breast cancer risk, including risk of molecular subtypes, and accounting for genetic pleiotropy. Finally, we used MVMR to evaluate whether the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer was mediated by MD. Childhood adiposity had a strong inverse effect on mammographic DA, while adulthood adiposity increased NDA. Later menarche had an effect of increasing DA and PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect attenuated to the null. DA and PD had a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) estimates were extremely heterogeneous, and examination of the SNPs suggested different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, MR mediation analysis estimated that 56% (95% CIs [32% - 79%]) of the childhood adiposity effect on breast cancer risk was mediated via DA. In this work, we sought to disentangle the relationship between factors affecting MD and breast cancer. We showed that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, which subsequently leads to reduced breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is of great importance for identifying potential targets of intervention, since advocating weight gain in childhood would not be recommended.

Educational inequality in multimorbidity: causality and causal pathways. A mendelian randomisation study in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, typically defined as having two or more long-term health conditions, is associated with reduced wellbeing and life expectancy. Understanding the determinants of multimorbidity, including whether they are causal, may help with the design and prioritisation of prevention interventions. This study seeks to assess the causality of education, BMI, smoking and alcohol as determinants of multimorbidity, and the degree to which BMI, smoking and alcohol mediate differences in multimorbidity by level of education. METHODS: Participants were 181,214 females and 155,677 males, mean ages 56.7 and 57.1 years respectively, from UK Biobank. We used a Mendelian randomization design; an approach that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to interrogate causality. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 55.1%. Mendelian randomization suggests that lower education, higher BMI and higher levels of smoking causally increase the risk of multimorbidity. For example, one standard deviation (equivalent to 5.1 years) increase in genetically-predicted years of education decreases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.0% (95% CI: 6.5 to 11.4%). A 5 kg/m2 increase in genetically-predicted BMI increases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.2% (95% CI: 8.1 to 10.3%) and a one SD higher lifetime smoking index increases the risk of multimorbidity by 6.8% (95% CI: 3.3 to 10.4%). Evidence for a causal effect of genetically-predicted alcohol consumption on multimorbidity was less strong; an increase of 5 units of alcohol per week increases the risk of multimorbidity by 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2 to 2.5%). The proportions of the association between education and multimorbidity explained by BMI and smoking are 20.4% and 17.6% respectively. Collectively, BMI and smoking account for 31.8% of the educational inequality in multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Education, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption are intervenable causal risk factors for multimorbidity. Furthermore, BMI and lifetime smoking make a considerable contribution to the generation of educational inequalities in multimorbidity. Public health interventions that improve population-wide levels of these risk factors are likely to reduce multimorbidity and inequalities in its occurrence.

Genetic evidence that high BMI in childhood has a protective effect on intermediate diabetes traits, including measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, after accounting for BMI in adulthood.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Determining how high BMI at different time points influences the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and affects insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity is critical. METHODS: By estimating childhood BMI in 441,761 individuals in the UK Biobank, we identified which genetic variants had larger effects on adulthood BMI than on childhood BMI, and vice versa. All genome-wide significant genetic variants were then used to separate the independent genetic effects of high childhood BMI from those of high adulthood BMI on the risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin-related phenotypes using Mendelian randomisation. We performed two-sample MR using external studies of type 2 diabetes, and oral and intravenous measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity. RESULTS: We found that a childhood BMI that was one standard deviation (1.97 kg/m2) higher than the mean, corrected for the independent genetic liability to adulthood BMI, was associated with a protective effect for seven measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, including increased insulin sensitivity index (ß=0.15; 95% CI 0.067, 0.225; p=2.79×10-4) and reduced fasting glucose levels (ß=-0.053; 95% CI -0.089, -0.017; p=4.31×10-3). However, there was little to no evidence of a direct protective effect on type 2 diabetes (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.85, 1.04; p=0.228) independently of genetic liability to adulthood BMI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results provide evidence of the protective effect of higher childhood BMI on insulin secretion and sensitivity, which are crucial intermediate diabetes traits. However, we stress that our results should not currently lead to any change in public health or clinical practice, given the uncertainty regarding the biological pathway of these effects and the limitations of this type of study.

Leveraging family history data to disentangle time-varying effects on disease risk using lifecourse mendelian randomization.

Lifecourse Mendelian randomization is a causal inference technique which harnesses genetic variants with time-varying effects to develop insight into the influence of age-dependent lifestyle factors on disease risk. Here, we apply this approach to evaluate whether childhood body size has a direct consequence on 8 major disease endpoints by analysing parental history data from the UK Biobank study.Our findings suggest that, whilst childhood body size increases later risk of outcomes such as heart disease (odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.23, P = 7.8 × 10- 5) and diabetes (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.31 to 1.56, P = 9.4 × 10- 15) based on parental history data, these findings are likely attributed to a sustained influence of being overweight for many years over the lifecourse. Likewise, we found evidence that remaining overweight throughout the lifecourse increases risk of lung cancer, which was partially mediated by lifetime smoking index. In contrast, using parental history data provided evidence that being overweight in childhood may have a protective effect on risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78 to 0.97, P = 0.01), corroborating findings from observational studies and large-scale genetic consortia.Large-scale family disease history data can provide a complementary source of evidence for epidemiological studies to exploit, particularly given that they are likely more robust to sources of selection bias (e.g. survival bias) compared to conventional case control studies. Leveraging these data using approaches such as lifecourse Mendelian randomization can help elucidate additional layers of evidence to dissect age-dependent effects on disease risk.

Age-specific effects of weight-based body size on fracture risk in later life: a lifecourse Mendelian randomisation study.

Musculoskeletal conditions, including fractures, can have severe and long-lasting consequences. Higher body mass index in adulthood is widely acknowledged to be protective for most fracture sites. However, sources of bias induced by confounding factors may have distorted previous findings. Employing a lifecourse Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach by using genetic instruments to separate effects at different life stages, this investigation aims to explore how prepubertal and adult body size independently influence fracture risk in later life.Using data from a large prospective cohort, univariable and multivariable MR were conducted to simultaneously estimate the effects of age-specific genetic proxies for body size (n = 453,169) on fracture risk (n = 416,795). A two-step MR framework was additionally applied to elucidate potential mediators. Univariable and multivariable MR indicated strong evidence that higher body size in childhood reduced fracture risk (OR, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.82 to 0.96, P = 0.005 and 0.76, 0.69 to 0.85, P = 1 × 10- 6, respectively). Conversely, higher body size in adulthood increased fracture risk (OR, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.023 and 1.26, 1.14 to 1.38, P = 2 × 10- 6, respectively). Two-step MR analyses suggested that the effect of higher body size in childhood on reduced fracture risk was mediated by its influence on higher estimated bone mineral density (eBMD) in adulthood.This investigation provides novel evidence that higher body size in childhood reduces fracture risk in later life through its influence on increased eBMD. From a public health perspective, this relationship is complex since obesity in adulthood remains a major risk factor for co-morbidities. Results additionally indicate that higher body size in adulthood is a risk factor for fractures. Protective effect estimates previously observed are likely attributed to childhood effects.

Genetic variation and elevated liver enzymes during childhood, adolescence and early adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors influence the risk of fatty liver disease (FLD) in adults. The aim of this study was to test if, and when, genetic risk factors known to affect FLD in adults begin to exert their deleterious effects during childhood, adolescence and early adulthood. METHODS: We included up to 4018 British children and adolescents from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort. Three genetic variants known to associate robustly with FLD in adults (PNPLA3 rs738409, TM6SF2 rs58542926 and HSD17B13 rs72613567) were tested for association with plasma levels of alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) during childhood (mean age: 9.9 years), early adolescence (15.5 years), late adolescence (17.8 years), and early adulthood (24.5 years). We also tested the associations of a 17-variant score and whole-genome polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from associations in adults with plasma ALT and AST at the same four time points. Associations with elastography-derived liver steatosis and fibrosis were tested in early adulthood. RESULTS: Genetic risk factors for FLD (individually, combined into a 3-variant score, a 17-variant score and as a genome-wide PRS), were associated with higher liver enzymes, beginning in childhood and throughout adolescence and early adulthood. The ALT-increasing effects of the genetic risk variants became larger with increasing age. The ALT-PRS was associated with liver steatosis in early adulthood. No genetic associations with fibrosis were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic factors that promote FLD in adults associate with elevated liver enzymes already during childhood, and their effects get amplified with increasing age.

Life course effects of genetic susceptibility to higher body size on body fat and lean mass: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Different genetic variants are associated with larger body size in childhood vs adulthood. Whether and when these variants predominantly influence adiposity are unknown. We examined how genetic variants influence total body fat and total lean mass trajectories. METHODS: Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort (N = 6926). Sex-specific genetic risk scores (GRS) for childhood and adulthood body size were generated, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans measured body fat and lean mass six times between the ages of 9 and 25 years. Multilevel linear spline models examined associations of GRS with fat and lean mass trajectories. RESULTS: In males, the sex-specific childhood and adulthood GRS were associated with similar differences in fat mass from 9 to 18 years; 8.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1, 11.6] and 7.5% (95% CI 4.3, 10.8) higher fat mass at 18 years per standard deviation (SD) higher childhood and adulthood GRS, respectively. In males, the sex-combined childhood GRS had stronger effects at ages 9 to 15 than the sex-combined adulthood GRS. In females, associations for the sex-specific childhood GRS were almost 2-fold stronger than the adulthood GRS from 9 to 18 years: 10.5% (95% CI 8.5, 12.4) higher fat mass at 9 years per SD higher childhood GRS compared with 5.1% (95% CI 3.2, 6.9) per-SD higher adulthood GRS. In females, the sex-combined GRS had similar effects, with slightly larger effect estimates. Lean mass effect sizes were much smaller. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants for body size are more strongly associated with adiposity than with lean mass. Sex-combined childhood variants are more strongly associated with increased adiposity until early adulthood. This may inform future studies that use genetics to investigate the causes and impact of adiposity at different life stages.

Childhood adiposity and novel subtypes of adult-onset diabetes: a Mendelian randomisation and genome-wide genetic correlation study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated whether the impacts of childhood adiposity on adult-onset diabetes differ across proposed diabetes subtypes using a Mendelian randomisation (MR) design. METHODS: We performed MR analysis using data from European genome-wide association studies of childhood adiposity, latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA, proxy for severe autoimmune diabetes), severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD) and mild age-related diabetes (MARD). RESULTS: Higher levels of childhood adiposity had positive genetically predicted effects on LADA (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.05, 2.52), SIDD (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.18, 3.80), SIRD (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.60, 4.75) and MOD (OR 7.30, 95% CI 4.17, 12.78), but not MARD (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.70, 1.60). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Childhood adiposity is a risk factor not only for adult-onset diabetes primarily characterised by obesity or insulin resistance, but also for subtypes primarily characterised by insulin deficiency or autoimmunity. These findings emphasise the importance of preventing childhood obesity.

Genetic evidence that high BMI in childhood has a protective effect on intermediate diabetes traits, including measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion.

Determining how high body-mass index (BMI) at different time points influences the risk of developing type two diabetes (T2D), and affects insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity, is critical. By estimating childhood BMI in 441,761 individuals in the UK Biobank, we identified which genetic variants had larger effects on adulthood BMI than on childhood BMI, and vice-versa. All genome-wide significant genetic variants were then used to separate the independent genetic effects of high childhood BMI from high adulthood BMI on the risk of T2D and insulin related phenotypes using Mendelian randomisation and studies of T2D, and oral and intravenous measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity. We found that a 1.s.d. (= 1.97kg/m 2 ) higher childhood BMI, corrected for the independent genetic liability to adulthood BMI, was associated with a protective effect for seven measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, including an increased insulin sensitivity index (ß = 0.15 [0.067, 0.225], p = 2.79×10 -4 ), and reduced fasting glucose (ß = -0.053 [-0.089, -0.017], p = 4.31×10 -3 ). There was however little to no evidence of a direct protective effect on T2D (OR = 0.94 [0.85 - 1.04], p = 0.228), independently of genetic liability to adulthood BMI. Our results thus cumulatively provide evidence of the protective effect of higher childhood BMI on insulin secretion and sensitivity, which are crucial intermediate diabetes traits. However, we stress that our results should not currently lead to any change in public health or clinical practice, given the uncertainty in biological pathway of these effects, and the limitations of this type of study. Research in Context: High BMI in adulthood is associated with higher risk of type two diabetes, coupled with lower insulin sensitivity and secretion.Richardson et al [2020] used genetics to show that high BMI in childhood does not appear to increase the risk of type diabetes independently from its effect on adult BMI.We asked: does high childhood BMI affect insulin related traits such as fasting glucose and insulin sensitivity, independently of adulthood BMI?We used genetics to show that high childhood BMI has a protective effect on seven insulin sensitivity and secretion traits, including fasting glucose and measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, independently of adulthood BMI.Our work has the potential to turn conventional understanding on its head - high BMI in childhood improves insulin sensitivity (when adjusting for knock on effects to high adult BMI) and opens up important questions about plasticity in childhood and compensatory mechanisms.

Association between genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition and prostate cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the second most prevalent malignancy in men worldwide. Observational studies have linked the use of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) lowering therapies with reduced risk of PrCa, which may potentially be attributable to confounding factors. In this study, we performed a drug target Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to evaluate the association of genetically proxied inhibition of LDL-c-lowering drug targets on risk of PrCa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with LDL-c (P < 5 × 10-8) from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium genome-wide association study (GWAS) (N = 1,320,016) and located in and around the HMGCR, NPC1L1, and PCSK9 genes were used to proxy the therapeutic inhibition of these targets. Summary-level data regarding the risk of total, advanced, and early-onset PrCa were obtained from the PRACTICAL consortium. Validation analyses were performed using genetic instruments from an LDL-c GWAS conducted on male UK Biobank participants of European ancestry (N = 201,678), as well as instruments selected based on liver-derived gene expression and circulation plasma levels of targets. We also investigated whether putative mediators may play a role in findings for traits previously implicated in PrCa risk (i.e., lipoprotein a (Lp(a)), body mass index (BMI), and testosterone). Applying two-sample MR using the inverse-variance weighted approach provided strong evidence supporting an effect of genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 (equivalent to a standard deviation (SD) reduction in LDL-c) on lower risk of total PrCa (odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76 to 0.96, P = 9.15 × 10-3) and early-onset PrCa (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.52 to 0.95, P = 0.023). Genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition provided a similar central effect estimate on PrCa risk, although with a wider 95% CI (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.62 to 1.13, P = 0.244), whereas genetically proxied NPC1L1 inhibition had an effect on higher PrCa risk with a 95% CI that likewise included the null (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 0.87 to 2.04, P = 0.180). Analyses using male-stratified instruments provided consistent results. Secondary MR analyses supported a genetically proxied effect of liver-specific PCSK9 expression (OR = 0.90 per SD reduction in PCSK9 expression, 95% CI = 0.86 to 0.95, P = 5.50 × 10-5) and circulating plasma levels of PCSK9 (OR = 0.93 per SD reduction in PCSK9 protein levels, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.997, P = 0.04) on PrCa risk. Colocalization analyses identified strong evidence (posterior probability (PPA) = 81.3%) of a shared genetic variant (rs553741) between liver-derived PCSK9 expression and PrCa risk, whereas weak evidence was found for HMGCR (PPA = 0.33%) and NPC1L1 expression (PPA = 0.38%). Moreover, genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition was strongly associated with Lp(a) levels (Beta = -0.08, 95% CI = -0.12 to -0.05, P = 1.00 × 10-5), but not BMI or testosterone, indicating a possible role for Lp(a) in the biological mechanism underlying the association between PCSK9 and PrCa. Notably, we emphasise that our estimates are based on a lifelong exposure that makes direct comparisons with trial results challenging. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports a strong association between genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 and a lower risk of total and early-onset PrCa, potentially through an alternative mechanism other than the on-target effect on LDL-c. Further evidence from clinical studies is needed to confirm this finding as well as the putative mediatory role of Lp(a).

Separating the effects of early and later life adiposity on colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants. RESULTS: Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77-1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76-1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90-1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood.