Application of lidar to assess the habitat selection of an endangered small mammal in an estuarine wetland environment.

Light detection and ranging (lidar) has emerged as a valuable tool for examining the fine-scale characteristics of vegetation. However, lidar is rarely used to examine coastal wetland vegetation or the habitat selection of small mammals. Extensive anthropogenic modification has threatened the endemic species in the estuarine wetlands of the California coast, such as the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris; SMHM). A better understanding of SMHM habitat selection could help managers better protect this species. We assessed the ability of airborne topographic lidar imagery in measuring the vegetation structure of SMHM habitats in a coastal wetland with a narrow range of vegetation heights. We also aimed to better understand the role of vegetation structure in habitat selection at different spatial scales. Habitat selection was modeled from data compiled from 15 small mammal trapping grids collected in the highly urbanized San Francisco Estuary in California, USA. Analyses were conducted at three spatial scales: microhabitat (25 m2), mesohabitat (2025 m2), and macrohabitat (~10,000 m2). A suite of structural covariates was derived from raw lidar data to examine vegetation complexity. We found that adding structural covariates to conventional habitat selection variables significantly improved our models. At the microhabitat scale in managed wetlands, SMHM preferred areas with denser and shorter vegetation and selected for proximity to levees and taller vegetation in tidal wetlands. At the mesohabitat scale, SMHM were associated with a lower percentage of bare ground and with pickleweed (Salicornia pacifica) presence. All covariates were insignificant at the macrohabitat scale. Our results suggest that SMHM preferentially selected microhabitats with access to tidal refugia and mesohabitats with consistent food sources. Our findings showed that lidar can contribute to improving our understanding of habitat selection of wildlife in coastal wetlands and help to guide future conservation of an endangered species.

Increasing Salt Marsh Elevation Using Sediment Augmentation: Critical Insights from Surface Sediments and Sediment Cores.

Sea-level rise is particularly concerning for tidal wetlands that reside within an area with steep topography or are constrained by human development and alteration of sedimentation. Sediment augmentation to increase wetland elevations has been considered as a potential strategy for such areas to prevent wetland loss over the coming decades. However, there is little information on the best approaches and whether adaptive management actions can mimic natural processes to build sea-level rise resilience. In addition, the lack of information on long-term marsh characteristics, processes, and variability can hamper development of effective augmentation strategies. Here, we assess a case study in a southern California marsh to determine the nature of the pre-existing sediments and variability of the site in relation to sediments applied during an augmentation experiment. Although sediment cores revealed natural variations in the grain size and organic content of sediments deposited at the site over the past 1500 years, the applied sediments were markedly coarser in grain size than prehistoric sediments at the site (100% maximum sand versus 76% maximum sand). The rate of the experimental sediment application (25.1 ± 1.09 cm in ~2 months) was also much more rapid than natural accretion rates measured for the site historically. In contrast, post-augmentation sediment accretion rates on the augmentation site have been markedly slower than pre-augmentation rates or current rates on a nearby control site. The mismatch between the characteristics of the applied sediment and thickness of application and the historic conditions are likely strong contributors to the slow initial recovery of vegetation. Sediment augmentation has been shown to be a useful strategy in some marshes, but this case study illustrates that vegetation recovery may be slow if applied sediments are not similar or at a thickness similar to historic conditions. However, testing adaptation strategies to build wetland elevations is important given the long-term risk of habitat loss with sea-level rise. Lessons learned in the case study could be applied elsewhere.

Assessing small-mammal trapping design using spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) modeling on long-term monitoring data.

Few studies have evaluated the optimal sampling design for tracking small mammal population trends, especially for rare or difficult to detect species. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models present an advancement over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement when estimating density. The salt marsh harvest mouse (SMHM; Reithrodontomys raviventris) is a federal and California state listed endangered species endemic to the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary, California, USA; where a population in a subembayment has been continually monitored over an 18-year period using mark-recapture methods. We analyzed capture data within a SECR modeling framework that allowed us to account for differences in detection and movement between sexes. We compared the full dataset to subsampling scenarios to evaluate how the grid size (area) of the trap design, trap density (spacing), and number of consecutive trapping occasions (duration) influenced density estimates. To validate the subsampling methods, we ran Monte Carlo simulations based on the true parameter estimates for each specific year. We found that reducing the area of the trapping design by more than 36% resulted in the inability of the SECR model to replicate density estimates within the SE of the original density estimates. However, when trapping occasions were reduced from 4 to 3-nights the density estimates were indistinguishable from the full dataset. Furthermore, reducing trap density by 50% also resulted in density estimates comparable to the full dataset and was a substantially better model than reducing the trap area by 50%. Overall, our results indicated that moderate reductions in the number of trapping occasions or trap density could yield similar density estimates when using a SECR approach. This approach allows the optimization of field trapping efforts and designs by reducing field efforts while maintaining the same population estimate compared to the full dataset. Using a SECR approach may help other wildlife programs identify sampling efficiencies without sacrificing data integrity for long term monitoring of population densities.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Migration and transformation of coastal wetlands in response to rising seas.

Coastal wetlands are not only among the world's most valued ecosystems but also among the most threatened by high greenhouse gas emissions that lead to accelerated sea level rise. There is intense debate regarding the extent to which landward migration of wetlands might compensate for seaward wetland losses. By integrating data from 166 estuaries across the conterminous United States, we show that landward migration of coastal wetlands will transform coastlines but not counter seaward losses. Two-thirds of potential migration is expected to occur at the expense of coastal freshwater wetlands, while the remaining one-third is expected to occur at the expense of valuable uplands, including croplands, forests, pastures, and grasslands. Our analyses underscore the need to better prepare for coastal transformations and net wetland loss due to rising seas.

Seasonal impoundment management reduces nitrogen cycling but not resilience to surface fire in a tidal wetland.

Hydrology and salinity regimes of many impounded wetlands are manipulated to provide seasonal habitats for migratory waterfowl, with little-known consequences for ecosystem structure and function. Managed hydrology can alter ecosystems by directly changing soil properties and processes and by influencing plant community dynamics. Additionally, management history may influence ecosystem response to disturbance, including fires. To better understand how wetland management regime influences ecosystem response to disturbance, we quantified elevation, soil nitrogen concentrations and process rates, and plant community structure and diversity in a natural experiment following the 2018 Branscombe Fire. We measured paired burned-unburned patches in both tidally-influenced and managed, seasonally-impounded wetlands in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Unburned ecosystem structure and nutrient cycling differed by wetland management history; unburned impounded wetlands were ∼1 m lower in elevation and plant community composition was dominated by succulents whereas the unburned tidal wetland was dominated by graminoids. Unburned impounded wetland soil nitrogen cycling (potential nitrification and denitrification) rates were <28% of those measured in unburned tidal wetland soils and soil extractable nitrate, ammonium, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentrations were also substantially lower in unburned impounded than unburned tidal wetlands. Despite these differences in pre-disturbance (i.e., unburned) conditions, all soil processes recovered to baseline levels within 6 months after surface fire, and we found no evidence of plant community change 1 year after fire in either wetland management type. Overall, water management history exerted stronger control on ecosystem processes and structure than surface fire disturbance. Low extractable soil nitrate and potential denitrification rates may indicate limitation of soil nitrogen removal in impounded wetlands, with implications for downstream environmental quality and eutrophication across managed landscapes.

Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise.

Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework includes an improved calibration scheme that more accurately reconstructs soil profiles and incorporates parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. Using WARMER-2, we evaluated elevation change in three tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, CA, USA along an estuarine tidal and salinity gradient with varying scenarios of SLR, salinization, and changes in sediment availability. We also tested the sensitivity of marsh elevation and carbon accumulation rates to different plant productivity functions. Wetland elevation at all three sites was sensitive to changes in sediment availability, but sites with greater initial elevations or space for upland transgression persisted longer under higher SLR rates than sites at lower elevations. Using a multi-species wetland vegetation transition model for organic matter contribution to accretion, WARMER-2 projected increased elevations relative to sea levels (resilience) and higher rates of carbon accumulation when compared with projections assuming no future change in vegetation with SLR. A threshold analysis revealed that all three wetland sites were likely to eventually transition to an unvegetated state with SLR rates above 7 mm/yr. Our results show the utility in incorporating additional estuary-specific parameters to bolster confidence in model projections. The new WARMER-2 modeling framework is widely applicable to other tidal wetland ecosystems and can assist in teasing apart important drivers of wetland elevation change under SLR.

Short-term impact of sediment addition on plants and invertebrates in a southern California salt marsh.

The implementation and monitoring of management strategies is integral to protect coastal marshes from increased inundation and submergence under sea-level rise. Sediment addition is one such strategy in which sediment is added to marshes to raise relative elevations, decrease tidal inundation, and enhance ecosystem processes. This study looked at the plant and invertebrate community responses over 12 months following a sediment addition project on a salt marsh located in an urbanized estuary in southern California, USA. This salt marsh is experiencing local subsidence, is sediment-limited from landscape modifications, has resident protected species, and is at-risk of submergence from sea-level rise. Abiotic measurements, invertebrate cores, and plant parameters were analyzed before and after sediment application in a before-after-control-impact (BACI) design. Immediately following the sediment application, plant cover and invertebrate abundance decreased significantly, with smothering of existing vegetation communities without regrowth, presumably creating resulting harsh abiotic conditions. At six months after the sediment application treatment, Salicornia bigelovii minimally colonized the sediment application area, and Spartina foliosa spread vegetatively from the edges of the marsh; however, at 12 months following sediment application overall plant recovery was still minimal. Community composition of infaunal invertebrates shifted from a dominance of marsh-associated groups like oligochaetes and polychaetes to more terrestrial and more mobile dispersers like insect larvae. In contrast to other studies, such as those with high organic deposition, that showed vegetation and invertebrate community recovery within one year of sediment application, our results indicated a much slower recovery following a sediment addition of 32 cm which resulted in a supratidal elevation with an average of 1.62 m (NAVD88) at our sampling locations. Our results indicate that the site did not recover after one year and that recovery may take longer which illustrates the importance of long-term monitoring to fully understand restoration trajectories and inform adaptive management. Testing and monitoring sea-level rise adaptation strategies like sediment addition for salt marshes is important to prevent the loss of important coastal ecosystems.

Habitat of the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) in San Francisco Bay.

Understanding habitat associations is vital for conservation of at-risk marsh-endemic wildlife species, particularly those under threat from sea level rise. We modeled environmental and habitat associations of the marsh-endemic, Federally endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris, RERA) and co-occurrence with eight associated small mammal species from annual trap data, 1998-2014, in six estuarine marshes in North San Francisco Bay, California. Covariates included microhabitat metrics of elevation and vegetation species and cover; and landscape metrics of latitude-longitude, distance to anthropogenic features, and habitat patch size. The dominant cover was pickleweed (Salicornia pacifica) with 86% mean cover and 37 cm mean height, and bare ground with about 10% mean cover. We tested 38 variants of Bayesian network (BN) models to determine covariates that best account for presence of RERA and of all nine small mammal species. Best models had lowest complexity and highest classification accuracy. Among RERA presence models, three best BN models used covariates of latitude-longitude, distance to paved roads, and habitat patch size, with 0% error of false presence, 20% error of false nonpresence, and 20% overall error. The all-species presence models suggested that within the pickleweed marsh environment, RERA are mostly habitat generalists. Accounting for presence of other species did not improve prediction of RERA. Habitat attributes compared between RERA and the next most frequently captured species, California vole (Microtus californicus), suggested substantial habitat overlap, with RERA habitat being somewhat higher in marsh elevation, greater in percent cover of the dominant plant species, closer to urban areas, further from agricultural areas, and, perhaps most significant, larger in continuous size of marsh patch. Findings will inform conservation management of the marsh environment for RERA by identifying best microhabitat elements, landscape attributes, and adverse interspecific interactions.

Flooding regimes increase avian predation on wildlife prey in tidal marsh ecosystems.

Within isolated and fragmented populations, species interactions such as predation can cause shifts in community structure and demographics in tidal marsh ecosystems. It is critical to incorporate species interactions into our understanding when evaluating the effects of sea-level rise and storm surges on tidal marshes. In this study, we hypothesize that avian predators will increase their presence and hunting activities during high tides when increased inundation makes their prey more vulnerable. We present evidence that there is a relationship between tidal inundation depth and time of day on the presence, abundance, and behavior of avian predators. We introduce predation pressure as a combined probability of predator presence related to water level. Focal surveys were conducted at four tidal marshes in the San Francisco Bay, California where tidal inundation patterns were monitored across 6 months of the winter. Sixteen avian predator species were observed. During high tide at Tolay Slough marsh, ardeids had a 29-fold increase in capture attempts and 4 times greater apparent success rate compared with low tide. Significantly fewer raptors and ardeids were found on low tides than on high tides across all sites. There were more raptors in December and January and more ardeids in January than in other months. Ardeids were more prevalent in the morning, while raptors did not exhibit a significant response to time of day. Modeling results showed that raptors had a unimodal response to water level with a peak at 0.5 m over the marsh platform, while ardeids had an increasing response with water level. We found that predation pressure is related to flooding of the marsh surface, and short-term increases in sea levels from high astronomical tides, sea-level rise, and storm surges increase vulnerability of tidal marsh wildlife.

Author Correction: Accuracy and Precision of Tidal Wetland Soil Carbon Mapping in the Conterminous United States.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Sea-level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes.

Sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high-elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation-suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site-specific, one-dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation-suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle- and high-elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.

Accuracy and Precision of Tidal Wetland Soil Carbon Mapping in the Conterminous United States.

Tidal wetlands produce long-term soil organic carbon (C) stocks. Thus for carbon accounting purposes, we need accurate and precise information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of those stocks. We assembled and analyzed an unprecedented soil core dataset, and tested three strategies for mapping carbon stocks: applying the average value from the synthesis to mapped tidal wetlands, applying models fit using empirical data and applied using soil, vegetation and salinity maps, and relying on independently generated soil carbon maps. Soil carbon stocks were far lower on average and varied less spatially and with depth than stocks calculated from available soils maps. Further, variation in carbon density was not well-predicted based on climate, salinity, vegetation, or soil classes. Instead, the assembled dataset showed that carbon density across the conterminous united states (CONUS) was normally distributed, with a predictable range of observations. We identified the simplest strategy, applying mean carbon density (27.0 kg C m-3), as the best performing strategy, and conservatively estimated that the top meter of CONUS tidal wetland soil contains 0.72 petagrams C. This strategy could provide standardization in CONUS tidal carbon accounting until such a time as modeling and mapping advancements can quantitatively improve accuracy and precision.

U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise.

We used a first-of-its-kind comprehensive scenario approach to evaluate both the vertical and horizontal response of tidal wetlands to projected changes in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) across 14 estuaries along the Pacific coast of the continental United States. Throughout the U.S. Pacific region, we found that tidal wetlands are highly vulnerable to end-of-century submergence, with resulting extensive loss of habitat. Using higher-range SLR scenarios, all high and middle marsh habitats were lost, with 83% of current tidal wetlands transitioning to unvegetated habitats by 2110. The wetland area lost was greater in California and Oregon (100%) but still severe in Washington, with 68% submerged by the end of the century. The only wetland habitat remaining at the end of the century was low marsh under higher-range SLR rates. Tidal wetland loss was also likely under more conservative SLR scenarios, including loss of 95% of high marsh and 60% of middle marsh habitats by the end of the century. Horizontal migration of most wetlands was constrained by coastal development or steep topography, with just two wetland sites having sufficient upland space for migration and the possibility for nearly 1:1 replacement, making SLR threats particularly high in this region and generally undocumented. With low vertical accretion rates and little upland migration space, Pacific coast tidal wetlands are at imminent risk of submergence with projected rates of rapid SLR.

Making sense of denial in sexual offenders: a qualitative phenomenological and repertory grid analysis.

Denial in sexual offenders represents the first barrier to successful treatment a clinician is likely to face. Most sex offender treatment programs devote significant time to overcoming denial, with most programs having a focus on disclosure and "accepting responsibility." This is the first study that has aimed to make sense of sexual offenders' denial through a rigorous qualitative analysis. The main objective was to explore the experiences and lived worlds of sexual offenders in denial. A qualitative phenomenological methodology combining interpretative phenomenological analysis and repertory grids was implemented. Ten incarcerated sexual offenders in categorical denial participated in the research. The analysis revealed the narrative, relational, and self-reconstructive properties of denial and discusses the role and function denial may be playing for sexual offenders. The results highlight that denial can be viewed as a form of "sense making" and that clinically relevant treatment targets can be elicited without disclosure. It is concluded that viewing denial as a barrier to treatment impedes constructive work with offenders, and implications for treatment are discussed.

Working with denial in convicted sexual offenders: a qualitative analysis of treatment professionals' views and experiences and their implications for practice.

Denial in sexual offenders represents the first barrier to successful treatment a clinician is likely to face. However, there is currently no research focusing on the experiences of treatment professionals who treat and manage deniers. This study aimed to bridge this research gap and to gain an insight into the perspectives and experiences of professionals who treat and manage sex offenders in denial. The purpose was to ascertain their views on whether deniers are amenable to treatment, whether they should be offered treatment (as presently they are excluded from sex offender programmes), and what they believe may work with this population. A qualitative methodology was used, and treatment professionals were interviewed using semistructured interviews at a HM Prison in England. The main findings indicated that participants viewed denial as a barrier to treatment and that categorical deniers should be excluded from treatment. Implications for treatment are discussed, and it is concluded that viewing denial as a barrier to treatment impedes constructive work with offenders. It is argued that denial as an organising principle for treatment needs rethinking and that admittance may not be required for personal reform.