Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Changes in Skin Test Aeroallergen Sensitization in Mexico Over the Past 14 Years and According to Climate.

Introduction: Aeroallergen exposure has an intra- and extra-domiciliary component and varies according to climatological zones. Mexico is a large country with a great variety of climates. A previous study (2009) evaluated skin prick test results (SPT) in different regions. In this study, we compare previous sensitization patterns from 14y ago with current ones and compare them between different climatological zones. Methods: Mexican allergists were asked to share their last 100 SPT results in patients with respiratory allergy. Clinics were grouped in (semi)humid vs (semi)dry zones. Results were analyzed nationwide and compared to the 2009 results, calculating odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), with p <0.05 as cut-off. Similarly, we compared (semi)humid versus dry zones. Results: We collected 2915 SPT results from 28 clinics (19 cities). Dermatophagoides was the most frequently sensitizing allergen. There was a significant increase in SPT positivity from 2009 to 2023 in both in- and outdoor aeroallergens (OR 1.26-2.65, 95% CI from 1.06-1.50 to 1.99-3.52). Comparing dry-humid zones, sensitization to pollen from Oleaceae, Fagaceae (p < 0.0001 all) and most weeds is more frequent in humid zones, as are Dermatophagoides and cockroach (both p < 0.0001). Eucalyptus, mesquite, and all grass pollen sensitizations predominate in dry zones (p < 0.05-0.0001). There are no differences in sensitization to cat or dog between zones. Conclusion: We found a general increase in SPT sensitization over the past fourteen years, suggesting that this is probably not only due to climate change. The different sensitization profile throughout the country was mainly related to humidity. Repeating epidemiologic SPT studies over the years could help tracking changes in allergen sensitization over time.

Impact of climate change on Colombian Pacific coast mangrove bivalves distribution.

The mangrove bivalves, Anadara tuberculosa and Anadara similis, are pivotal for the Colombian Pacific coast mangrove ecosystems and economies. In this study, the current and future potential distribution of these bivalves is modeled considering climate change. The future models (2030 and 2050) were projected considering the new climate scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5) proposed by the IPCC in its sixth report. Our findings reveal areas in the Colombian Pacific coast, notably Nariño, Cauca, southern Valle del Cauca, and Chocó, with high environmental suitability for these bivalves. However, the 2050 projections, especially under the pessimistic SSP5 scenario, indicate potential adverse impacts from climate change. By 2030 and 2050, the species might lean more toward a southwesterly distribution in the Colombian Pacific coast. Climate-induced spatiotemporal mismatches could occur between the bivalves and the mangroves in some areas. These insights are crucial for effective conservation and management strategies for these species.

Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean.

In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton abundance in coastal regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic: São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and the Protection Area of Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) in Santa Catarina (APA), a conservation zone established along 130 km of coastline. Using SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023, we found significant differences in SST between the regions, with São Paulo having the highest SST, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. All locations showed a consistent increase in SST over the years, with North Santa Catarina, APA and São Paulo experiencing the lowest rate of increase. Correlation analyses between SST and Chl-a revealed a stronger inverse relationship in North Santa Catarina and APA, indicating an increased response of Chl-a to SST variations in this region. The presence of protected area appears to play an essential role in reducing the negative impacts of increasing SST. Specifically, while there is a wealth of research on the consequences of global warming on diverse coastal and oceanic areas, heterogeneity among different settings persists and the causes for this necessitating attention. Our findings have implications for both localized scientific approaches and broader climate policies, emphasizing the importance of considering coastal ecosystem resilience to climate change in future conservation and adaptation strategies.

Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics.

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.

The place of health in the EU-CELAC interregional cooperation from 2005 to 2023: a historical, empirical and prospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Much has been said by actors from different fields and perspectives about the manifold changes in world affairs triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, it is to be expected that there will be impacts on long-standing partnerships such as the one between the European Union and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean Countries. However, few studies have demonstrated these impacts, either empirically, by uncovering their specificities or from a historical perspective, to allow for a reasonable methodological comparison of the patterns used to define the partnership and that have changed or have been affected in some way by the pandemic. RESULTS: Through an in-depth qualitative assessment of primary and secondary sources, this article contributes to this research gap. It analyzes the patterns and changes or impacts in light of two strands of behavior that can make sense of EU-CELAC health cooperation-revisionist or reformist. The findings show an economy-driven health agenda as a new pattern of cooperation, which derives from EU reformist behavior after the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The EU power to enforce its priorities in the context of health cooperation with CELAC is the main factor that will define how (and not just which) competing interests and capacities will be accommodated. The relevance of the study to the fields of global governance for health, interregional health cooperation and EU foreign policy is threefold. It shows us i.how two more international regimes are easily intertwined with health-trade and intellectual property-with the potential to deepen asymmetries and divergences even between long-standing strategic partners; ii.contrary to the idea that reformist behaviors are only adopted by actors who are dissatisfied with the status quo, the study shows us that the reformist actor can also be the one who has more material power and influence and who nevertheless challenges the success of cooperation in the name of new priorities and the means to achieve them; and iii.how the EU will find it difficult to operationalize its new priorities internally, among states and private actors, and with those of CELAC, given the history of intense disputes over health-related economic aspects.

Observed declines in body size have differential effects on survival and recruitment, but no effect on population growth in tropical birds.

Declines in body size can be an advantageous physiological response to warming temperatures, or a result of physiological and nutritional stress. Either way, studies often assume that these climate-induced trait changes have important implications for fitness and demography. We leveraged almost three decades of capture-mark-recapture data of 51 bird species in Panama to examine if body size has changed through time, how sensitive body size is to changes in weather, and if body size impacts population demography. We evaluated two metrics of body size, structural size (wing length), and body condition (residual body mass). Over the study, wing length changed in varying directions for 88% of species (23 decrease, 22 increase), but the effects were weak, and change was only significant for two species. Conversely, body condition declined for 88% of species (45), effects were stronger, and that change was significant for 22% of species (11). This suggests that nutritional stress is likely the cause of changes in body size, not an adaptive response to warming. Precipitation metrics impacted body condition across three of our four feeding guilds, while wing length was only impacted by weather metrics for two guilds. This suggests that body condition is more sensitive to change in weather metrics compared to wing length. Lastly, we found that the impact of changes in body size on survival and recruitment was variable across species, but these relationships were in the opposite direction, ultimately resulting in no change in population growth for all but one species. Thus, while different stages (adult survival and recruitment) of populations may be impacted by body size, populations appear to be buffered from changes. The lack of an effect on population growth rate suggests that populations may be more resilient to changes in body size, with implications for population persistence under expected climate change.

Response of wild aquatic insect communities to thermal variation through comparative landscape transcriptomics.

Fluctuations in temperature are recognized as a potent driver of selection pressure, fostering genomic variations that are crucial for the adaptation and survival of organisms under selection. Notably, water temperature is a pivotal factor influencing aquatic organism persistence. By comprehending how aquatic organisms respond to shifts in water temperature, we can understand their potential physiological adaptations to environmental change in one or multiple species. This, in turn, contributes to the formulation of biologically relevant guidelines for the landscape scale transcriptome profile of organisms in lotic systems. Here, we investigated the distinct responses of seven stream stonefly species, collected from four geographical regions across Japan, to variations in temperature, including atmospheric and water temperatures. We achieved this by assessing the differences in gene expression through RNA-sequencing within individual species and exploring the patterns of community-genes among different species. We identified 735 genes that exhibited differential expressions across the temperature gradient. Remarkably, the community displayed expression levels differences of respiration and metabolic genes. Additionally, the diversity in molecular functions appeared to be linked to spatial variation, with water temperature differences potentially contributing to the overall functional diversity of genes. We found 22 community-genes with consistent expression patterns among species in response to water temperature variations. These genes related to respiration, metabolism and development exhibited a clear gradient providing robust evidence of divergent adaptive responses to water temperature. Our findings underscore the differential adaptation of stonefly species to local environmental conditions, suggesting that shared responses in gene expression may occur across multiple species under similar environmental conditions. This study emphasizes the significance of considering various species when assessing the impacts of environmental changes on aquatic insect communities and understanding potential mechanisms to cope with such changes.

Intake Characteristics as Predictors of Psychotherapy Outcome in a Practice Research Network in Argentina.

There are few studies exploring intake diagnostic characteristics as predictors of change in integrative naturalistic settings. The aim of this study is to explore baseline variables at the intake process and establish the predictive value of the individual trajectories of the patients. We recruited 259 patients undergoing an integrative psychotherapy network of psychotherapists from Buenos Aires, Argentina. Every therapist completed the intake form of each patient involved in the routine outcome monitoring. Thereafter step-wise regressions based on forward selection strategies were used, in order to identify meaningful baseline predictors of patients' clinical evolution, derived from the intake process. The selected predictors were social support network, subjective distress, the initial measure of clinical distress, unemployment, sociocultural status and reactance. When including those six variables in a multilevel model, the results indicate that social support network, subjective distress, and the initial measure of clinical distress were significant predictors of the trajectories of OQ-30, whereas unemployment, sociocultural status and reactance were not significant. The results regarding social support network are in line with the literature, while results of socioeconomic status (unemployment and sociocultural level) move in an opposite direction in comparison to the available evidence. Moreover, the mental health findings (initial OQ-30 and subjective distress) confirm the contradictory body of literature produced in this domain. Finally, reactance seems to be a significant predictor in previous study in contradiction of our results. Overall, this endeavor constitutes important but preliminary evidence to enhance the production of bottom-up science within practice research networks in the global south.

AC-ASPECTS, ACh-ASPECTS, and H-ASPECTS: new imaging scales to assess territorial and total cerebral hemispheric ischemic injury.

Background: The extent of ischemic injury in acute stroke is assessed in clinical practice using the Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (ASPECTS) rating system. However, current ASPECTS semi-quantitative topographic scales assess only the middle cerebral artery (MCA) (original ASPECTS) and posterior cerebral (PC-ASPECTS) territories. For treatment decision-making in patients with anterior cerebral artery (ACA) occlusions and internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusions with large ischemic cores, measures of all hemispheric regions are desirable. Methods: In this cohort study, anatomic rating systems were developed for the anterior cerebral (AC-ASPECTS, 3 points) and anterior choroidal artery (ACh-ASPECTS, 1 point) territories. In addition, a total supratentorial hemisphere (H-ASPECTS, 16 points) score was calculated as the sum of the MCA ASPECTS (10 regions), supratentorial PC-ASPECTS (2 regions), AC-ASPECTS (3 regions), and ACh-ASPECTS (1 region). Three raters applied these scales to initial and 24 h CT and MR images in consecutive patients with ischemic stroke (IS) due to ICA, M1-MCA, and ACA occlusions. Results: Imaging ratings were obtained for 96 scans in 50 consecutive patients with age 74.8 (±14.0), 60% female, NIHSS 15.5 (9.25-20), and occlusion locations ICA 34%; M1-MCA 58%; and ACA 8%. Treatments included endovascular thrombectomy +/- thrombolysis in 72%, thrombolysis alone in 8%, and hemicraniectomy in 4%. Among experienced clinicians, inter-rater reliability for AC-, ACh-, and H-ASPECTS scores was substantial (kappa values 0.61-0.80). AC-ASPECTS abnormality was present in 14% of patients, and ACh-ASPECTS abnormality in 2%. Among patients with ACA and ICA occlusions, H-ASPECTS scores compared with original ASPECTS scores were more strongly associated with disability level at discharge, ambulatory status at discharge, discharge destination, and combined inpatient mortality and hospice discharge. Conclusion: AC-ASPECTS, ACh-ASPECTS, and H-ASPECTS expand the scope of acute IS imaging scores and increase correlation with functional outcomes. This additional information may enhance prognostication and decision-making, including endovascular thrombectomy and hemicraniectomy.

Endophytic Fungi for Crops Adaptation to Abiotic Stresses.

Endophytic fungi (EFs) have emerged as promising modulators of plant growth and stress tolerance in agricultural ecosystems. This review synthesizes the current knowledge on the role of EFs in enhancing the adaptation of crops to abiotic stress. Abiotic stresses, such as drought, salinity, and extreme temperatures, pose significant challenges to crop productivity worldwide. EFs have shown remarkable potential in alleviating the adverse effects of these stresses. Through various mechanisms, including the synthesis of osmolytes, the production of stress-related enzymes, and the induction of plant defense mechanisms, EFs enhance plant resilience to abiotic stressors. Moreover, EFs promote nutrient uptake and modulate the hormonal balance in plants, further enhancing the stress tolerance of the plants. Recent advancements in molecular techniques have facilitated the identification and characterization of stress-tolerant EF strains, paving the way for their utilization in agricultural practices. Furthermore, the symbiotic relationship between EFs and plants offers ecological benefits, such as improved soil health and a reduced dependence on chemical inputs. However, challenges remain in understanding the complex interactions between EFs and host plants, as well as in scaling up their application in diverse agricultural systems. Future research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms underlying endophytic-fungal-mediated stress tolerance and developing sustainable strategies for harnessing their potential in crop production.

Assessing the impact of three biosphere reserves on the conservation of coastal ecosystems.

Biosphere Reserves (BR) manage large territories with diverse natural covers and land uses to preserve biodiversity, promote local development and preserve ecosystems. This study evaluated how their zoning (buffer and core) and policy timeframes (decree period, management plan period, and land planning period) influence four landscape management outcomes: deforestation, natural cover recovery, and anthropic and natural permanence. For three Mexican BR case studies, land use and cover transitions were calculated and compared to contrafactual sites. Observed rates of land cover change were marginal within all three BR zoning and across their policy timeframe (<0.02 % change rate), suggesting that BR effectively promote the permanence of both natural and anthropic covers. Nevertheless, the predicted probability of uncommon deforestation and recovery outcomes at local levels showed that the effect of a BR over its regulated landscape is not spatiotemporally static, contrasting the effect of individual allocation vs a group or network. Poverty, land tenure, agriculture aptitude and distance to markets adds to this dynamic and is modelled and discussed. This study shows that BR zoning schemes and its regulatory sequence influence the rates of land cover change and the predicted probability of landscape management outcomes across space and time.

Older Veteran Experiences of using Technology during a Multicomponent Telerehabilitation Program: A Convergent Mixed Methods Study.

Less than half of U.S. veterans meet physical activity guidelines. Even though changing physical activity can be challenging, prior studies have demonstrated that it is possible. Older adults are using technology to aid in such behavior change. However, research that explores the mechanisms of how technology can aid in behavior change is lacking, especially among older veterans. Thus, the purpose of this secondary, convergent mixed methods study was to explore how older veterans engaged with technologies that were used during a multicomponent telerehabilitation program. The study included veterans aged ≥60 years with ≥3 chronic medical conditions and physical function limitation. Quantitative data were collected during the primary randomized controlled trial, and qualitative data were collected via individual interviews following completion of the telerehabilitation program. Data were merged and then analyzed by high vs. low technology engagement groups. Key similarities and differences between groups were identified in five domains: satisfaction with the virtual environment, coping self-efficacy, perceptions of Annie (automated text messaging platform), experiences using the activity monitor, and self-management skills. Findings can help inform the successful integration of similar technologies into physical rehabilitation programs. Further study is warranted to understand additional factors and mechanisms that influence technology engagement in telerehabilitation.

Plant development and reproduction in a changing environment.

Plants face the most diverse climatic conditions throughout their life cycle. As sessile organisms, they are remarkably resilient to adverse environments, which have been exacerbated in the current context of global change. The way in which plants sense and respond to various types of abiotic stresses varies depending on the severity of the stress and the developmental stage of the plant, affecting both vegetative and reproductive aspects. Understanding how plants respond and adapt to a changing environment is crucial for predicting and mitigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ensuring the future survival and reproduction of plant species.

Hot, dry, and salty: The present and future of an Extremophile model lizard from Argentina.

Global warming poses a threat to lizard populations by raising ambient temperatures above historical norms and reducing thermoregulation opportunities. Whereas the reptile fauna of desert systems is relatively well studied, the lizard fauna of saline environments has not received much attention and-to our knowledge-thermal ecology and the effects of global warming on lizards from saline environments have not been yet addressed. This pioneer study investigates the thermal ecology, locomotor performance and potential effects of climate warming on Liolaemus ditadai, a lizard endemic to one of the largest salt flats on Earth. We sampled L. ditadai using traps and active searches along its known distribution, as well as in other areas within Salinas Grandes and Salinas de Ambargasta, where the species had not been previously recorded. Using ensemble models (GAM, MARS, RandomForest), we modeled climatically suitable habitats for L. ditadai in the present and under a pessimistic future scenario (SSP585, 2070). L. ditadai emerges as an efficient thermoregulator, tolerating temperatures near its upper thermal limits. Our ecophysiological model suggests that available activity hours predict its distribution, and the projected temperature increase due to global climate change should minimally impact its persistence or may even have a positive effect on suitable thermal habitat. However, this theoretical increase in habitat could be linked to the distribution of halophilous scrub in the future. Our surveys reveal widespread distribution along the borders of Salinas Grandes and Salinas de Ambargasta, suggesting a potential presence along the entire border of both salt plains wherever halophytic vegetation exists. Optimistic model results, extended distribution, and no evidence of flood-related adverse effects offer insights into assessing the conservation status of L. ditadai, making it and the Salinas Grandes system suitable models for studying lizard ecophysiology in largely unknown saline environments.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes.

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model.

Understanding the Amazon Rainforest's response to shifts in precipitation is paramount with regard to its sensitivity to climate change and deforestation. Studies using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically only explore a range of socio-economically plausible pathways. In this study, we applied the state-of-the-art DGVM LPJmL to simulate the Amazon forest's response under idealized scenarios where precipitation is linearly decreased and subsequently increased between current levels and zero. Our results indicate a nonlinear but reversible relationship between vegetation Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), suggesting a threshold at a critical MAP value, below which vegetation biomass decline accelerates with decreasing MAP. We find that approaching this critical threshold is accompanied by critical slowing down, which can hence be expected to warn of accelerating biomass decline with decreasing rainfall. The critical precipitation threshold is lowest in the northwestern Amazon, whereas the eastern and southern regions may already be below their critical MAP thresholds. Overall, we identify the seasonality of precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) as the most important parameters determining the threshold value. While vegetation fires show little effect on the critical threshold and the biomass pattern in general, the ability of trees to adapt to water stress by investing in deep roots leads to increased biomass and a lower critical threshold in some areas in the eastern and southern Amazon where seasonality and PET are high. Our findings underscore the risk of Amazon forest degradation due to changes in the water cycle, and imply that regions that are currently characterized by higher water availability may exhibit heightened vulnerability to future drying.

Assessment of Tracheostomy Tube Placement and Late Change Practices in an Academic Tertiary Care Center.

Introduction The optimal time for tracheostomy changes is unknown. Most surgeons opt to wait until five to seven days postoperatively, while more recent studies suggest that changes occurring as early as two to three days postoperatively are also safe. Objective To evaluate the safety of changing the tracheostomy tube later than 14 days postoperatively. Methods The charts of patients who underwent tracheostomy placement and change at a tertiary care center from 2015 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed, and the subjects were divided into 2 cohorts (late and very late), depending on the time of the first tracheostomy change. Results The study included 198 patients, 53 of whom aged between 0 and 18 years, and 145, aged > 18 years. The time until the first tracheostomy change was on average of 131.1 days. The most common indication for tracheostomy tube placement was prolonged intubation. Adverse events were observed in 30.8% of the cases (the most common being the formation of granulation tissue), a rate that does not differ much from the incidence reported in the literature (of 34% to 77%) when tracheostomy tubes are changed as early as 3 to 7 days postoperatively. There was no significant difference in the incidence of complications between patients undergoing late and very late changes ( p = 0.688), or between pediatric and adult subjects ( p = 0.36). There were no significant correlations regarding the time of the first or second change and the incidence of complications (r = -0.014; p = 0.84 for the first change; and r = -0.57; p = 0.64 for the second change). Conclusion The late first tracheostomy tube change was safe and could save resources and decrease the financial burden of frequent changes. It is always crucial to provide adequate information about home tracheostomy care for patients.

Impacts of future climate change on rice yield based on crop model simulation-A meta-analysis.

Rice is one of the world's major food crops. Changes in major climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration have an important impact on rice growth and yield. However, many of the current studies that predict the impact of future climate change on rice yield are affected by uncertainties such as climate models, climate scenarios, model parameters and structure, and showing great differences. This study was based on the assessment results of the impact of climate change on rice in the future of 111 published literature, and comprehensively analyzed the impact and uncertainty of climate change on rice yield. This study utilized local polynomial (Loess) regression analysis to investigate the impact of changes in mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on relative rice yield variations within a complete dataset. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the restricted datasets. The qualitative analysis based on the entire dataset revealed that rice yields decreased with increasing average temperature. The precipitation changed between 0 and 25 %, it was conducive to the stable production of rice, and when the precipitation changed >25 %, it would cause rice yield reduction. The change of solar radiation was less than -1.15 %, the rice yield increases with the increase of solar radiation, and when the change of solar radiation exceeds -1.15 %, the rice yield decreases. Elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The results of a quantitative analysis utilizing the mixed effects model revealed that average temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration, and adaptation methods all had a substantial impact on rice production, and elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could exert positive influences on rice production. For every 1 °C and 1 % increase in average temperature and precipitation, rice yield decreased by 3.85 % and 0.56 %, respectively. For every 100 ppm increase in CO2 concentration, rice yield increased by 7.1 %. The variation of rice yield under different climate models, study sites and climate scenarios had significant variability. Elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could compensate for the negative effects of climate change, benefiting rice production. This study comprehensively collected and analyzed a wide range of literature and research, which provides an in-depth understanding of the impacts of climate change on rice production and informs future research and policy development.

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.