Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Countrywide screening supports model-based predictions of the distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ukraine.

The chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a widespread fungus causing amphibian declines across the globe. Although data on Bd occurrence in Eastern Europe are scarce, a recent species distribution model (SDM) for Bd reported that western and north-western parts of Ukraine are highly suitable to the pathogen. We verified the SDM-predicted range of Bd in Ukraine by sampling amphibians across the country and screening for Bd using qPCR. A total of 446 amphibian samples (tissue and skin swabs) from 11 species were collected from 36 localities. We obtained qPCR-positive results for 33 samples including waterfrogs (Pelophylax esculentus complex) and fire- and yellow-bellied toads (Bombina spp.) from 8 localities. We found that Bd-positive localities had significantly higher predicted Bd habitat suitability than sites that were pathogen-free. Amplification and sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of samples with the highest Bd load revealed matches with ITS haplotypes of the globally distributed BdGPL strain, and a single case of the BdASIA-2/BdBRAZIL haplotype. We found that Bd was non-randomly distributed across Ukraine, with infections present in the western and north-central forested peripheries of the country with a relatively cool, moist climate. On the other hand, our results suggest that Bd is absent or present in low abundance in the more continental central, southern and eastern regions of Ukraine, corroborating the model-predicted distribution of chytrid fungus. These areas could potentially serve as climatic refugia for Bd-susceptible amphibian hosts.

Ecological integration of Vespa velutina Lepeletier, 1836 in South Korea: a comprehensive study of co-occurrence and interaction patterns with native social wasps.

BACKGROUND: The spread of Vespa velutina Lepeletier, 1836 (Asian hornet) in South Korea poses a threat to biodiversity and agriculture. Traditional species interaction models often fail to capture the complexity of invasive species dynamics. This study used association rule learning (ARL) and clustering analyses to explore the interactions of V. velutina with native Vespidae species in South Korea, with the aim of uncovering patterns of coexistence and competition. RESULTS: Over 4 years (2020-2023), 304 traps were strategically placed across South Korea to collect data on Vespidae species. Our findings showed that Vespula flaviceps, Vespa crabro, and Vespula koreensis were the most frequently encountered species. V. velutina was also widespread, suggesting its successful integration into local ecosystems. The ARL analysis, using the 'apriori' algorithm, identified significant co-occurrence patterns and potential interactions. The rules generated indicated both competitive and coexistent relationships with varying levels of association strength across different regions. Clustering analyses, including hierarchical and k-means clustering, grouped species based on their occurrence similarities. The distinct clusters formed in the analysis highlighted the unique ecological roles and interactions of V. velutina and other Vespidae species in South Korean ecosystems. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the successful establishment of V. velutina in diverse South Korean ecosystems and highlights its complex interactions with native species. These findings support the need for nuanced management strategies that consider the intricate ecological relationships of V. velutina. This approach is crucial for the effective management of invasive species and ecosystem conservation. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicted distribution of Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi (Tylenchida: Allantonematidae), parasite of the coffee berry borer.

Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi is an endoparasitic nematode of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei. The nematode has only been recorded across a limited geographical range in coffee-growing areas of southeastern Mexico. Because of its confined geographical distribution, the effect of altitude, temperature, and mean annual precipitation on M. hypothenemi's presence/absence in the Soconusco region of Mexico was investigated. The geographical distribution of this parasite was predicted based on current data, using geographical information systems (GIS), the MaxEnt algorithm, and historical data to improve the prediction accuracy for other Neotropical regions. In Soconusco, the presence of this parasite is directly related to annual precipitation, especially in the areas with the highest annual rainfall (4000 - 4700 mm/year). Four species distribution models were generated for the Neotropical region with environmental variables for sites with parasite presence data, predicting a range of possible distribution with a high probability of occurrence in southeastern Mexico and southwestern Guatemala and a low probability in areas of Central and South America. Characterization of the abiotic habitat conditions suitable for M. hypothenemi development allows us to predict its distribution in the Neotropics and contributes to our understanding of its ecological relationship with environmental variables.

Screening, epidemic trends and drug sensitivity analysis of nontuberculous mycobacteria in a local area of China.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the isolation rate, prevalence trends, species distribution, and drug sensitivity of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) in Anhui Province, providing a reference for diagnosis and treatment strategies. METHODS: Specimens from suspected mycobacterial infection patients at Anhui Chest Hospital (including outpatients and inpatients) from January 2021 to December 2023 were cultured. Identified NTM strains were analyzed for species distribution and drug sensitivity. RESULTS: Of 10,519 mycobacteria strains cultured, 1,589 were NTM (15.11%). The top four species were Mycobacterium intracellulare (75.36%), Mycobacterium abscessus (11.78%), Mycobacterium kansasii (7.09%), and Mycobacterium avium (2.85%). NTM strains showed high sensitivity to amikacin and clarithromycin (≥90%) and significant sensitivity to rifabutin, moxifloxacin, and rifampicin (89.03%-79.61%). They exhibited high resistance to imipenem/cilastatin, sulfamethoxazole, minocycline, and doxycycline (≥95%). CONCLUSION: NTM isolation rates in Anhui have remained stable, with the predominant species being M. intracellulare, M. kansasii, M. abscessus, and M. avium. NTM strains are highly sensitive to amikacin, clarithromycin, rifabutin, moxifloxacin, and rifampicin. These findings can guide diagnosis, treatment strategies, and drug selection for NTM disease in Anhui Province.

Neglecting biodiversity baselines in longitudinal river connectivity restoration impacts priority setting.

River habitats are fragmented by barriers which impede the movement and dispersal of aquatic organisms. Restoring habitat connectivity is a primary objective of nature conservation plans with multiple efforts to strategically restore connectivity at local, regional, and global scales. However, current approaches to prioritize connectivity restoration do not typically consider how barriers spatially fragment species' populations. Additionally, we lack knowledge on biodiversity baselines to predict which species would find suitable habitat after restoring connectivity. In this paper, we asked how neglecting these biodiversity baselines in river barrier removals impacts priority setting for conservation planning. We applied a novel modelling approach combining predictions of species distributions with network connectivity models to prioritize conservation actions in rivers of the Rhine-Aare system in Switzerland. Our results show that the high number and density of barriers has reduced structural and functional connectivity across representative catchments within the system. We show that fragmentation decreases habitat suitability for species and that using expected distributions as biodiversity baselines significantly affects priority settings for connectivity restorations compared to species-agnostic metrics based on river length. This indicates that priorities for barrier removals are ranked higher within the expected distributions of species to maximize functional connectivity while barriers in unsuitable regions are given lower importance scores. Our work highlights that the joint consideration of existing barriers and species past and current distributions are critical for restoration plans to ensure the recovery and persistence of riverine fish diversity.

Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe.

The freshwater snail Bulinus truncatus is an important intermediate host for trematode parasites causing urogenital schistosomiasis, a tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of B. truncatus, combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life-history data obtained through extensive lab-based snail-temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for B. truncatus encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.

Environmental Factors Affecting Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Crop-Exploiting Species: Implications for Coexistence Between Agricultural Production and Avifauna Conservation in Wetlands.

Bird communities in agroecosystems bring both ecosystem services (e.g., pollination) and disservices (e.g., crop exploitation) to farmers. However, in the proximity of wetland reserves, farmers disproportionately experience harvest yield loss due to large aggregation of bird species that can utilize various agricultural resources. This often results in negative human-wildlife interactions which lower conservation support among farmers. Knowledge about the distribution of avian species that negatively influence yields, and its environmental drivers is thus fundamental to reconcile crop production and bird conservation. This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal patterns in richness and abundance of bird species known to cause agricultural yield loss as well as species-specific distribution patterns for the six bird species that are most challenging for local farmers. In combination with interview surveys of local farmers (n = 367) and seasonal bird surveys (n = 720), we investigated distribution of crop-exploiting avian species in the Indawgyi wetland ecosystem in Myanmar. Our results showed high richness and abundance of crop-exploiting species in the water habitat across all seasons, with most challenging species exhibiting higher presence closer to these water sources. The crop phenology had positive effect on species richness and abundance during the growing season. The agricultural use of crop-exploiting species was season- and species-specific, where the presence probability in the agricultural habitat was higher in habitat generalists than wetland specialists. Therefore, we suggest improved management of natural wetland habitats (e.g., habitat restoration), sustainable coexistence mechanisms in farms close to water (e.g., bird-friendly rice farming and Ecolabel certification) to reduce avian impacts on the farming communities and, at the same time, to promote bird conservation in wetlands of international importance.

Host tree availability shapes potential distribution of a target epiphytic moss species more than direct climate effects.

Climate change significantly impacts the distribution of woody plants, indirectly influencing the dynamics of entire ecosystems. Understanding species' varied responses to the environment and their reliance on biotic interactions is crucial for predicting the global changes' impact on woodland biodiversity. Our study focusses on Dicranum viride, a moss of conservation priority, and its dependence on specific phorophytes (host trees). Using species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques, we initially modelled its distribution using climate-only variables. As a novel approach, we also modelled the distribution of the main phorophyte species and incorporated them into D. viride SDM alongside climate data. Finally, we analysed the overlap of climatic and geographic niches between the epiphyte and the phorophytes. Inclusion of biotic interactions significantly improved model performance, with phorophyte availability emerging as the primary predictor. This underscores the significance of epiphyte-phorophyte interactions, supported by substantial niche overlap. Predictions indicate a potential decline in the suitability of most of the current areas for D. viride, with noticeable shifts towards the northern regions of Europe. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating biotic interactions into SDMs, especially for dependent organisms. Understanding such connections is essential to implement successful conservation strategies and adapt forest management practices to environmental changes.

Combining distribution modelling and phylogeography to understand present, past and future of an endangered spider.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how endangered species respond to climatic changes is fundamental for their conservation. Due to its restricted geographic range, its sensitivity to the ongoing global warming and its continuing decline, the Southwestern-Alpine endemic wolf spider Vesubia jugorum is currently classified as Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Here, we combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and phylogeographic inference to describe the present, the past and the future of this species in light of the mtDNA genetic structure of extant populations. RESULTS: Phylogenetic and network analyses show a high level of genetic differentiation and a strong genetic structure of the populations, likely explicable by a long history of isolation and survival in separate refugia. The SDM projection into past climatic conditions supports these results by showing a smaller distribution range compared to present, mostly restricted to the Maritime and Ligurian Alps, which possibly served as main refugium. Future forecast shows a significant shift in the bioclimatic range towards higher altitudes and latitudes, with a drastic decrease of habitat suitability in the central and south-eastern parts of the range, with consequent general loss of haplotype diversity. CONCLUSION: SDM and phylogeographic inference support the hypothesis that the current distribution and the genetic structure of the extant populations mirror the survival in situ of Vesubia jugorum across repeated glacial and interglacial phases, in line with the 'long-term stability hypothesis'. Future predictions show a significant shift in the bioclimatic range that V. jugorum will be likely unable to track, with profound impact on its long-term survival and its genetic diversity. Our considerations have implication for conservation genetics, highlighting the pivotal role of the transboundary protected areas of the SW-Alps in promoting conservation efforts for this species.

A matter of scale: Identifying the best spatial and temporal scale of environmental variables to model the distribution of a small cetacean.

The importance of scale when investigating ecological patterns and processes is recognised across many species. In marine ecosystems, the processes that drive species distribution have a hierarchical structure over multiple nested spatial and temporal scales. Hence, multi-scale approaches should be considered when developing accurate distribution models to identify key habitats, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Here, we propose a modelling procedure to identify the best spatial and temporal scale for each modelled and remotely sensed oceanographic variable to model harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution within the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone. Harbour porpoise sightings were recorded during dedicated line-transect aerial surveys conducted in the summers of 2016, 2021 and 2022. Binary generalised additive models were used to assess the relationships between porpoise presence and oceanographic variables at different spatial (5-40 km) and temporal (daily, monthly and across survey period) scales. Selected variables included sea surface temperature, thermal fronts, chlorophyll-a, sea surface height, mixed layer depth and salinity. A total of 30,514 km was covered on-effort with 216 harbour porpoise sightings recorded. Overall, the best spatial scale corresponded to the coarsest resolution considered in this study (40 km), while porpoise presence showed stronger association with oceanographic variables summarised at a longer temporal scale. Habitat models including covariates at coarse spatial and temporal scales may better reflect the processes driving availability and abundance of resources at these large scales. These findings support the hypothesis that a multi-scale approach should be applied when investigating species distribution. Identifying suitable spatial and temporal scale would improve the functional interpretation of the underlying relationships, particularly when studying how a small marine predator interacts with its environment and responds to climate and ecosystem changes.

Modeling the richness and spatial distribution of the wild relatives of Iranian pears (Pyrus L.) for conservation management.

The preservation of the genetic resources of crop wild relatives (CWRs) is crucial for food production systems and is considered a vital measure for global agricultural health and food security. The identification of potential areas where CWRs can thrive is one of the first steps towards their conservation. In this study, we used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine the habitat suitability of seven wild relatives of pears (Pyrus L.) for the first time. We aimed to identify high-priority areas for conservation and determine the hotspots for rich biodiversity in Iran. The study showed excellent predictive performance for all species studied (AUC value ≥ 90). The soil depth, solar radiation, minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) were the main environmental factors that influenced the habitat suitability of all seven species, according to permutation importance. The projected maps revealed that P. elaeagnifolia had the largest suitable habitat area, while P. glabra had the lowest. The results also showed that less than 5% of the suitable habitats for these seven species were in protected areas. This research highlights the need for national preservation policies and the development of cultivation and rehabilitation strategies for these threatened species.

Predicting habitat suitability for the soybean pod borer Leguminivora glycinivorella (Matsumura) using optimized MaxEnt models with multiple variables.

The soybean pod borer Leguminivora glycinivorella (Matsumura) is one of the most important soybean pests and often causes serious damage to Glycine max (L.) Merr., a leading source of dietary protein and oil in animal feed. However, the potential distribution patterns of this economically important pest and its driving factors require further investigation. Here, we used the optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of this pest with multiple variables associated with climate, land use, and host plant, at its recorded range and a globe scale. Based on 4 variable combinations, the results show that the current suitable habitats of L. glycinivorella are primarily distributed in most of China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. Whereas no suitable area is present in other continents. In future projections, the suitable region shows a slight northward expansion compared with the result predicted with current climatic conditions, and the suitable areas of almost all future projections were stable in size. Among the 9 bioclimatic factors, BIO03 (isothermality) consistently highly contributes to the predictions, indicating that temperature may be a key factor influencing the habitat distribution of L. glycinivorella. Comparative analyses of projections further show that non-climatic factors are informative in the modeling as routinely used bioclimate variables. The spatio-temporal distribution patterns of suitable habitats and the regulatory factors predicted in this study could provide important guidance for L. glycinivorella management.

Will climate change cause Sargassum beds in temperate waters to expand or contract? Evidence from the range shift pattern of Sargassum.

Understanding the range shift patterns of foundation species (e.g., macroalgae) under future climatic conditions is critical for biodiversity conservation in coastal ecosystems. These predictions are typically made using species distribution models (SDMs), and severe habitat loss has been predicted for most brown algal forests. Nevertheless, some models showed that local adaptation within species can reduce range loss projections. In this study, we used the brown algae Sargassum fusiforme and Sargassum thunbergii, which are distributed in the Northwest Pacific, to determine whether climate change will cause the Sargassum beds in Northwest Pacific temperate waters to expand or contract. We divided S. fusiforme and S. thunbergii into northern and southern lineages, considering the temperature gradients and phylogeographic structures. We quantified the realized niches of the two lineages using an n-dimensional hypervolume. Significant niche differentiation was detected between lineages for both species, suggesting the existence of local adaptation. Based on these results, lineage-level SDMs were constructed for both species. The prediction results showed the different responses of different lineages to climate change. The suitable distribution area for both species was predicted to move northward, retaining part of the suitable habitat at low latitudes (along the East China Sea). Unfortunately, this expansion could not compensate for losing middle-low latitude areas. Our results have important implications for the future management and protection of macroalgae and emphasize the importance of incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution predictions.

Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change.

Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision-making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species' range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high-persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species' dynamics under climate change.

Los mamíferos más amenazados de Europa y su dependencia del movimiento para adaptarse al cambio climático Resumen La tasa actual del cambio climático y las proyecciones climáticas pesimistas confrontan a los gestores y a los planeadores de la conservación con la necesidad de integrar este cambio a la ya de por sí compleja toma de decisiones. La predicción y priorización de áreas con estabilidad climática y áreas con probabilidad de facilitarles ajustes adaptativos de distribución a las especies son etapas importantes para maximizar los resultados de conservación y racionalizar la gestión futura de las tierras. Determiné las trayectorias espaciales adaptativas (TEA) para la mayoría de los mamíferos terrestres más amenazados de Europa con la persistencia esperada más alta hasta el 2080. Diseñé los siguientes índices de redes espaciales simples para la evaluación de especies en aquellas TEA: persistencia total, proporción de TEA que brindan adaptación in situ (refugios estables), número de TEA que convergen en un sitio y relación entre la convergencia de TEA y la persistencia con las áreas protegidas, las redes Natura 2000 y Emerald y las áreas de poca perturbación humana. Comparé el desempeño de las TEA de gran persistencia con un escenario en el que las especies permanecían dentro de las áreas con las mejores condiciones climáticas en el periodo de línea base. Las mil TEA más persistentes para cada una de las 39 especies cubrieron la quinta parte de Europa. Las áreas con el mayor potencial adaptativo (es decir, gran persistencia, estabilidad y convergencia de TEA) no siempre se traslaparon para todas las especies. Estas regiones predominaron en el suroeste de Europa, Europa Central y Escandinavia, con algunas ocurrencias en el este de Europa. Para la mayoría de las especies, la persistencia de las áreas con el mejor clima posible durante el periodo de línea base fue menor que dentro de las TEA, lo que resalta su dependencia por los movimientos adaptativos. Destaca que las áreas de conservación (en particular las áreas protegidas) cubrieron sólo pequeñas fracciones de la persistencia de las especies entre las TEA y los núcleos de adaptación climática (es decir, las áreas de gran convergencia de TEA) contaban con muy poca representación dentro de la mayoría de las áreas de conservación. Estos resultados enfatizan la necesidad de realizar análisis de las dinámicas espaciales de las especies bajo el cambio climático.

Evaluation of the environmental factors influencing the quality of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus based on HPLC and the Maxent model.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, global climate change in tandem with increased human activity has resulted in habitat degradation or the migration of rare medicinal plants, potentially impacting the quality of medicinal herbs. Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus is a valuable bulk medicinal material in Northwest China. As the demand for this medicinal herb continues to increase in both domestic and international markets, ensuring the sustainable development of high-quality Astragali Radix is important. In this study, the maximum entropy (Maxent) model was applied, thereby incorporating 136 distribution records, along with 39 environmental factors of A. membranaceus var. mongholicus, to assess the quality zonation and potential distribution of this species in China under climate change. RESULTS: The results showed that the elevation, annual mean temperature, precipitation of wettest month, solar radiation in June, and mean temperature of warmest quarter were the critical environmental factors influencing the accumulation of astragaloside IV and Astragalus polysaccharide in A. membranaceus var. mongholicus. Among the twelve main environmental variables, annual mean temperature, elevation, precipitation of the wettest month, and solar radiation in November were the four most important factors influencing the distribution of A. membranaceus var. mongholicus. In addition, ecological niche modelling revealed that highly suitable habitats were mainly located in central and western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northern Shaanxi, southern Ningxia, central Inner Mongolia, central Shanxi, and northern Hebei. However, the future projections under climate change suggested a contraction of these suitable areas, shifting towards northeastern high-latitude and high-elevation mountains. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide essential insights for developing adaptive strategies for A. membranaceus var. mongholicus cultivation in response to climate change and can inform future research on this species. By considering the identified environmental factors and the potential impacts of the predicted climate changes, we can visualize the regional distribution of high-quality Radix Astragali and develop conservation strategies to protect and restore its suitable habitats.

Seasonal-Spatial Distribution Variations and Predictions of Loliolus beka and Loliolus uyii in the East China Sea Region: Implications from Climate Change Scenarios.

Global climate change profoundly impacts the East China Sea ecosystem and poses a major challenge to fishery management in this region. In addition, closely related species with low catches are often not distinguished in fishery production and relevant data are commonly merged in statistics and fishing logbooks, making it challenging to accurately predict their habitat distribution range. Here, merged fisheries-independent data of the closely related squid Loliolus beka (Sasaki, 1929) and Loliolus uyii (Wakiya and Ishikawa, 1921) were used to explore the construction and prediction performance of species distribution models. Data in 2018 to 2019 from the southern Yellow and East China Seas were used to identify the seasonal-spatial distribution characteristics of both species, revealing a boundary line at 29.00° N for L. uyii during the autumn, with the highest average individual weight occurring during the summer, with both larvae and juveniles occurring during the autumn. Thus, the life history of L. uyii can be divided into winter-spring nursery and summer-autumn spawning periods. L. beka showed a preference for inshore areas (15-60 m) during the summer and offshore areas (32.00-78.00 m) during the winter. High-value areas of both species included inshore areas of the southern Yellow and mid-East China Seas during the autumn, enlarging during the spring to include central areas of the survey region, before significantly decreasing during the summer. Therefore, this study provides both a novel perspective for modeling biological habitat distribution with limited data and a scientific basis for the adjustment of fishery resource management and conservation measures in the context of climate change.

Pushed waves, trailing edges, and extreme events: Eco-evolutionary dynamics of a geographic range shift in the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea.

As climatic variation re-shapes global biodiversity, understanding eco-evolutionary feedbacks during species range shifts is of increasing importance. Theory on range expansions distinguishes between two different forms: "pulled" and "pushed" waves. Pulled waves occur when the source of the expansion comes from low-density peripheral populations, while pushed waves occur when recruitment to the expanding edge is supplied by high-density populations closer to the species' core. How extreme events shape pushed/pulled wave expansion events, as well as trailing-edge declines/contractions, remains largely unexplored. We examined eco-evolutionary responses of a marine invertebrate (the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea) that increased in abundance during the 2014-2016 marine heatwaves near the poleward edge of its geographic range in the northeastern Pacific. We used whole-genome sequencing from 19 populations across >11 degrees of latitude to characterize genomic variation, gene flow, and demographic histories across the species' range. We estimated present-day dispersal potential and past climatic stability to identify how contemporary and historical seascape features shape genomic characteristics. Consistent with expectations of a pushed wave, we found little genomic differentiation between core and leading-edge populations, and higher genomic diversity at range edges. A large and well-mixed population in the northern edge of the species' range is likely a result of ocean current anomalies increasing larval settlement and high-dispersal potential across biogeographic boundaries. Trailing-edge populations have higher differentiation from core populations, possibly driven by local selection and limited gene flow, as well as high genomic diversity likely as a result of climatic stability during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our findings suggest that extreme events can drive poleward range expansions that carry the adaptive potential of core populations, while also cautioning that trailing-edge extirpations may threaten unique evolutionary variation. This work highlights the importance of understanding how both trailing and leading edges respond to global change and extreme events.

Wireworm species associated with corn and soybean agroecosystems in Ontario, Canada.

Wireworms, the larvae of click beetles (Coleoptera: Elateridae), are often the target of insecticide seed treatments commonly used in corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) production in North America. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge of the species, life history, and economic impact of wireworms present in these agroecosystems. An extensive survey of wireworms was conducted in corn and soybean fields in Ontario, Canada, from 2014 to 2017 to document species distribution and co-occurrence and to identify risk factors related to their abundance. In total, 4,332 specimens were collected from 1,245 different sampling records. The dominant species collected was Limonius agonus (Say) (Coleoptera: Elateridae) comprising 71.5% of the specimens. The remaining wireworm specimens were identified as Hypnoidus abbreviatus (Say), Melanotus similis (Kirby), M. cribulosus (LeConte), M. depressus (Melsheimer), M. communis (Gyllenhal), Agriotes mancus (Say), Aeolus mellillus (Say), and Hemicrepidius spp (Germar). Multiple wireworm species were found to commonly occur within the same field and the same sample. Path analysis was conducted to investigate whether site, soil, and agronomic characteristics influenced wireworm distribution and abundance. Several significant relationships were found between wireworm species and geographic factors, soil texture, and agronomic practices. The results of this survey provide critical information that can be used to improve integrated pest management of the major wireworm genera found in corn and soybean agroecosystems in Ontario.

Human disturbance increases spatiotemporal associations among mountain forest terrestrial mammal species.

Spatial and temporal associations between sympatric species underpin biotic interactions, structure ecological assemblages, and sustain ecosystem functioning and stability. However, the resilience of interspecific spatiotemporal associations to human activity remains poorly understood, particularly in mountain forests where anthropogenic impacts are often pervasive. Here, we applied context-dependent Joint Species Distribution Models to a systematic camera-trap survey dataset from a global biodiversity hotspot in eastern Himalayas to understand how prominent human activities in mountain forests influence species associations within terrestrial mammal communities. We obtained 10,388 independent detections of 17 focal species (12 carnivores and five ungulates) from 322 stations over 43,163 camera days of effort. We identified a higher incidence of positive associations in habitats with higher levels of human modification (87%) and human presence (83%) compared to those located in habitats with lower human modification (64%) and human presence (65%) levels. We also detected a significant reduction of pairwise encounter time at increasing levels of human disturbance, corresponding to more frequent encounters between pairs of species. Our findings indicate that human activities can push mammals together into more frequent encounters and associations, which likely influences the coexistence and persistence of wildlife, with potential far-ranging ecological consequences.