Development of a Machine Learning Modelling Tool for Predicting HIV Incidence Using Public Health Data from a County in the Southern United States.

BACKGROUND: Recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) have significantly improved the accuracy of models predicting HIV incidence. These models typically utilize electronic medical records and patient registries. This study aims to broaden the application of these tools by utilizing de-identified public health datasets for notifiable sexually transmitted infections (STIs) from a southern U.S. County known for high HIV incidence rates. The goal is to assess the feasibility and accuracy of ML in predicting HIV incidence, which could potentially inform and enhance public health interventions. METHODS: We analyzed two de-identified public health datasets, spanning January 2010 to December 2021, focusing on notifiable STIs. Our process involved data processing and feature extraction, including sociodemographic factors, STI cases, and social vulnerability index (SVI) metrics. Various ML algorithms were trained and evaluated for predicting HIV incidence, using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. RESULTS: The study included 85,224 individuals, with 2,027 (2.37%) newly diagnosed with HIV during the study period. The ML models demonstrated high performance in predicting HIV incidence among males and females. Influential predictive features for males included age at STI diagnosis, previous STI information, provider type, and SVI. For females, they included age, ethnicity, previous STIs information, overall SVI, and race. CONCLUSIONS: The high accuracy of our ML models in predicting HIV incidence highlights the potential of using public health datasets for public health interventions such as tailored HIV testing and prevention. While these findings are promising, further research is needed to translate these models into practical public health applications.

Trends in Laboratory-Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Reinfections and Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths Among Adults Aged ≥18 Years - 18 U.S. Jurisdictions, September 2021-December 2022.

Although reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 have occurred in the United States with increasing frequency, U.S. epidemiologic trends in reinfections and associated severe outcomes have not been characterized. Weekly counts of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, total infections, and associated hospitalizations and deaths reported by 18 U.S. jurisdictions during September 5, 2021-December 31, 2022, were analyzed overall, by age group, and by five periods of SARS-CoV-2 variant predominance (Delta and Omicron [BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, and BQ.1/BQ.1.1]). Among reported reinfections, weekly trends in the median intervals between infections and frequencies of predominant variants during previous infections were calculated. As a percentage of all infections, reinfections increased substantially from the Delta (2.7%) to the Omicron BQ.1/BQ.1.1 (28.8%) periods; during the same periods, increases in the percentages of reinfections among COVID-19-associated hospitalizations (from 1.9% [Delta] to 17.0% [Omicron BQ.1/BQ.1.1]) and deaths (from 1.2% [Delta] to 12.3% [Omicron BQ.1/BQ.1.1]) were also substantial. Percentages of all COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths that were reinfections were consistently higher across variant periods among adults aged 18-49 years compared with those among adults aged ≥50 years. The median interval between infections ranged from 269 to 411 days by week, with a steep decline at the start of the BA.4/BA.5 period, when >50% of reinfections occurred among persons previously infected during the Alpha variant period or later. To prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes, including those following reinfection, CDC recommends staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccination and receiving timely antiviral treatments, when eligible.

Leadership engagement creates a powerful team.

A surgical department uses four strategies to attract and retain workers.

Demonstration of a consensus approach for the calculation of physicochemical properties required for environmental fate assessments.

Eight software applications are compared for their performance in estimating the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), melting point, vapor pressure and water solubility for a dataset of polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, polychlorinated dibenzodioxins, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The predicted property values are compared against a curated dataset of measured property values compiled from the scientific literature with careful consideration given to the analytical methods used for property measurements of these hydrophobic chemicals. The variability in the predicted values from different calculators generally increases for higher values of Kow and melting point and for lower values of water solubility and vapor pressure. For each property, no individual calculator outperforms the others for all four of the chemical classes included in the analysis. Because calculator performance varies based on chemical class and property value, the geometric mean and the median of the calculated values from multiple calculators that use different estimation algorithms are recommended as more reliable estimates of the property value than the value from any single calculator.

Developing strategies for on-call staffing: a working guideline for safe practices.

Effective on-call clinical staffing is critical to providing perioperative services to patients requiring emergency surgical care. Without careful monitoring of continuous work hours and hours worked per week, staffing practices can adversely affect the ability of personnel to function and provide care. Managers and perioperative personnel must carefully evaluate their on-call schedule to ensure the provision of safe medical care for their patients. Perioperative leaders at two hospitals partnered to create a safety guideline for on-call staffing practices, which includes zone guides for determining workload intensity. This guideline has served to help managers evaluate the general safety of their staffing plan and identify on-call practices that may need improvement or support in their areas of responsibility. Key recommendations from the guideline can help perioperative managers at other facilities establish clinical staffing plans and on-call practices that are safe and effective.

Perioperative employee annual evaluations: a 30-second process.

In response to complaints about the annual evaluation tool used at The Community Hospital in Munster, Indiana, the surgical services management team created a tool to rate the perioperative RNs on skills pertinent to the surgical services department. The hospital-wide evaluation tool uses vague criteria, which are regularly challenged by employees who disagree with their manager's evaluation. The new Surgical Services Employee Evaluation takes a manager approximately 30 seconds to complete and can be added to the generic hospital evaluation form to make the employee evaluation more accurate and meaningful. The tool evaluates three major categories: teamwork, patient care, and job preparation. Use of this additional tool has greatly reduced postevaluation employee complaints, and the tool is now being used in other departments, with slight department-specific variations. Employees now express less frustration with annual evaluations, and managers report a high degree of satisfaction with the tool because it helps them in the difficult task of employee evaluation and counseling.

World-class OR turnaround times: secrets uncovered.

One of the aspects of OR service that is most important to surgeons is quick OR turnaround times. Perioperative staff members and one orthopedic surgeon at the Community Hospital, Munster, Ind, have developed an innovative approach to the OR turnaround process that considerably increases efficiency and reduces average turnaround times. By assigning specific tasks to each perioperative team member, scheduling surgical procedures in order based on type of procedure, and drawing on individual team members' traits, the orthopedic surgeon is able to perform more procedures than other orthopedic surgeons in that facility in the same amount of time, which increases revenue for the hospital.

Four steps toward easing disciplinary actions.

Deal effectively with disciplinary action through a four-step process.

Think cooperation, not competition.

Neighboring hospitals can offer a wealth of information to help you start a new program at your facility.