Disturbance-Induced Changes in Population Size Structure Promote Coral Biodiversity.

AbstractReef-building coral assemblages are typically species rich, yet the processes maintaining high biodiversity remain poorly understood. Disturbance has long been thought to promote coral species coexistence by reducing the strength of competition (i.e., the intermediate disturbance hypothesis [IDH]). However, such disturbance-induced effects are insufficient to inhibit competitive exclusion. Nevertheless, there are other mechanisms by which disturbance and, more generally, environmental variation can favor coexistence. Here, we develop a size-structured, stochastic coral competition model calibrated with field data from two common colony morphologies to investigate the effects of hydrodynamic disturbance on community dynamics. We show that fluctuations in wave action can promote coral species coexistence but that this occurs via interspecific differences in size-dependent mortality rather than solely via stochastic fluctuations in competition (i.e., free space availability). While this mechanism differs from that originally envisioned in the IDH, it is nonetheless a mechanism by which intermediate levels of disturbance do promote coexistence. Given the sensitivity of coexistence to disturbance frequency and intensity, anthropogenic changes in disturbance regimes are likely to affect coral assemblages in ways that are not predictable from single-population models.

Life history optimisation drives latitudinal gradients and responses to global change in marine fishes.

Within many species, and particularly fish, fecundity does not scale with mass linearly; instead, it scales disproportionately. Disproportionate intraspecific size-reproduction relationships contradict most theories of biological growth and present challenges for the management of biological systems. Yet the drivers of reproductive scaling remain obscure and systematic predictors of how and why reproduction scaling varies are lacking. Here, we parameterise life history optimisation model to predict global patterns in the life histories of marine fishes. Our model predict latitudinal trends in life histories: Polar fish should reproduce at a later age and show steeper reproductive scaling than tropical fish. We tested and confirmed these predictions using a new, global dataset of marine fish life histories, demonstrating that the risks of mortality shape maturation and reproductive scaling. Our model also predicts that global warming will profoundly reshape fish life histories, favouring earlier reproduction, smaller body sizes, and lower mass-specific reproductive outputs, with worrying consequences for population persistence.

Six years of demography data for 11 reef coral species.

Scleractinian corals are colonial animals with a range of life-history strategies, making up diverse species assemblages that define coral reefs. We tagged and tracked ~30 colonies from each of 11 species during seven trips spanning 6 years (2009-2015) to measure their vital rates and competitive interactions on the reef crest at Trimodal Reef, Lizard Island, Australia. Pairs of species were chosen from five growth forms in which one species of the pair was locally rare (R) and the other common (C). The sampled growth forms were massive (Goniastrea pectinata [R] and G. retiformis [C]), digitate (Acropora humilis [R] and A. cf. digitifera [C]), corymbose (A. millepora [R] and A. nasuta [C]), tabular (A. cytherea [R] and A. hyacinthus [C]) and arborescent (A. robusta [R] and A. intermedia [C]). An extra corymbose species with intermediate abundance, A. spathulata was included when it became apparent that A. millepora was too rare on the reef crest, making the 11 species in total. The tagged colonies were visited each year in the weeks prior to spawning. During visits, two or more observers each took two or three photographs of each tagged colony from directly above and on the horizontal plane with a scale plate to track planar area. Dead or missing colonies were recorded and new colonies tagged to maintain ~30 colonies per species throughout the 6 years of the study. In addition to tracking tagged corals, 30 fragments were collected from neighboring untagged colonies of each species for counting numbers of eggs per polyp (fecundity); and fragments of untagged colonies were brought into the laboratory where spawned eggs were collected for biomass and energy measurements. We also conducted surveys at the study site to generate size structure data for each species in several of the years. Each tagged colony photograph was digitized by at least two people. Therefore, we could examine sources of error in planar area for both photographers and outliners. Competitive interactions were recorded for a subset of species by measuring the margins of tagged colony outlines interacting with neighboring corals. The study was abruptly ended by Tropical Cyclone Nathan (Category 4) that killed all but nine of the more than 300 tagged colonies in early 2015. Nonetheless, these data will be of use to other researchers interested in coral demography and coexistence, functional ecology, and parametrizing population, community, and ecosystem models. The data set is not copyright restricted, and users should cite this paper when using the data.

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals.

Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic 'warmer-is-better' hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

Net effects of life-history traits explain persistent differences in abundance among similar species.

Life-history traits are promising tools to predict species commonness and rarity because they influence a population's fitness in a given environment. Yet, species with similar traits can have vastly different abundances, challenging the prospect of robust trait-based predictions. Using long-term demographic monitoring, we show that coral populations with similar morphological and life-history traits show persistent (decade-long) differences in abundance. Morphological groups predicted species positions along two, well known life-history axes (the fast-slow continuum and size-specific fecundity). However, integral projection models revealed that density-independent population growth (λ) was more variable within morphological groups, and was consistently higher in dominant species relative to rare species. Within-group λ differences projected large abundance differences among similar species in short timeframes, and were generated by small but compounding variation in growth, survival, and reproduction. Our study shows that easily measured morphological traits predict demographic strategies, yet small life-history differences can accumulate into large differences in λ and abundance among similar species. Quantifying the net effects of multiple traits on population dynamics is therefore essential to anticipate species commonness and rarity.

Predicting the response of disease vectors to global change: The importance of allometric scaling.

The distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes is changing. Climate change, invasions and vector control strategies all alter the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes. When disease vectors undergo a range shift, so do disease burdens. Predicting such shifts is a priority to adequately prepare for disease control. Accurate predictions of distributional changes depend on how factors such as temperature and competition affect mosquito life-history traits, particularly body size and reproduction. Direct estimates of both body size and reproduction in mosquitoes are logistically challenging and time-consuming, so the field has long relied upon linear (isometric) conversions between wing length (a convenient proxy of size) and reproductive output. These linear transformations underlie most models projecting species' distributions and competitive interactions between native and invasive disease vectors. Using a series of meta-analyses, we show that the relationship between wing length and fecundity are nonlinear (hyperallometric) for most mosquito species. We show that whilst most models ignore reproductive hyperallometry (with respect to wing length), doing so introduces systematic biases into estimates of population growth. In particular, failing to account for reproductive hyperallometry overestimates the effects of temperature and underestimates the effects of competition. Assuming isometry also increases the potential to misestimate the efficacy of vector control strategies by underestimating the contribution of larger females in population replenishment. Finally, failing to account for reproductive hyperallometry and variation in body size can lead to qualitative errors via the counter-intuitive effects of Jensen's inequality. For example, if mean sizes decrease, but variance increases, then reproductive outputs may actually increase. We suggest that future disease vector models incorporate hyperallometric relationships to more accurately predict changes in mosquito distribution in response to global change.

An Indo-Pacific coral spawning database.

The discovery of multi-species synchronous spawning of scleractinian corals on the Great Barrier Reef in the 1980s stimulated an extraordinary effort to document spawning times in other parts of the globe. Unfortunately, most of these data remain unpublished which limits our understanding of regional and global reproductive patterns. The Coral Spawning Database (CSD) collates much of these disparate data into a single place. The CSD includes 6178 observations (3085 of which were unpublished) of the time or day of spawning for over 300 scleractinian species in 61 genera from 101 sites in the Indo-Pacific. The goal of the CSD is to provide open access to coral spawning data to accelerate our understanding of coral reproductive biology and to provide a baseline against which to evaluate any future changes in reproductive phenology.

Projecting marine developmental diversity and connectivity in future oceans.

Global change will alter the distribution of organisms around the planet. While many studies have explored how different species, groups and traits might be re-arranged, few have explored how dispersal is likely to change under future conditions. Dispersal drives ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations, determining resilience, persistence and spread. In marine systems, dispersal shows clear biogeographical patterns and is extremely dependent on temperature, so simple projections can be made regarding how dispersal potentials are likely to change owing to global warming under future thermal regimes. We use two proxies for dispersal-developmental mode and developmental duration. Species with a larval phase are more dispersive than those that lack a larval phase, and species that spend longer developing in the plankton are more dispersive than those that spend less time in the plankton. Here, we explore how the distribution of different development modes is likely to change based on current distributions. Next, we estimate how the temperature-dependence of development itself depends on the temperature in which the species lives, and use this estimate to project how developmental durations are likely to change in the future. We find that species with feeding larvae are likely to become more prevalent, extending their distribution poleward at the expense of species with aplanktonic development. We predict that developmental durations are likely to decrease, particularly in high latitudes where durations may decline by more than 90%. Overall, we anticipate significant changes to dispersal in marine environments, with species in the polar seas experiencing the greatest change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Differential resource use in filter-feeding marine invertebrates.

Coexistence theory predicts that, in general, increases in the number of limiting resources shared among competitors should facilitate coexistence. Heterotrophic sessile marine invertebrate communities are extremely diverse but traditionally, space was viewed as the sole limiting resource. Recently planktonic food was recognized as an additional limiting resource, but the degree to which planktonic food acts as a single resource or is utilized differentially remains unclear. In other words, whether planktonic food represents a single resource niche or multiple resource niches has not been established. We estimated the rate at which 11 species of marine invertebrates consumed three phytoplankton species, each different in shape and size. Rates of consumption varied by a 240-fold difference among the species considered and, while there was overlap in the consumer diets, we found evidence for differential resource usage (i.e. consumption rates of phytoplankton differed among consumers). No consumer ingested all phytoplankton species at equivalent rates, instead most species tended to consume one of the species much more than others. Our results suggest that utilization of the phytoplankton niche by filter feeders is more subdivided than previously thought, and resource specialization may facilitate coexistence in this system. Our results provide a putative mechanism for why diversity affects community function and invasion in a classic system for studying competition.

Global biogeography of marine dispersal potential.

The distance travelled by marine larvae varies by seven orders of magnitude. Dispersal shapes marine biodiversity, and must be understood if marine systems are to be well managed. Because warmer temperatures quicken larval development, larval durations might be systematically shorter in the tropics relative to those at high latitudes. Nevertheless, life history and hydrodynamics also covary with latitude-these also affect dispersal, precluding any clear expectation of how dispersal changes at a global scale. Here we combine data from the literature encompassing >750 marine organisms from seven phyla with oceanographic data on current speeds, to quantify the overall latitudinal gradient in larval dispersal distance. We find that planktonic duration increased with latitude, confirming predictions that temperature effects outweigh all others across global scales. However, while tropical species have the shortest planktonic durations, realized dispersal distances were predicted to be greatest in the tropics and at high latitudes, and lowest at mid-latitudes. At high latitudes, greater dispersal distances were driven by moderate current speed and longer planktonic durations. In the tropics, fast currents overwhelmed the effect of short planktonic durations. Our results contradict previous hypotheses based on biology or physics alone; rather, biology and physics together shape marine dispersal patterns.

Climate-driven shift in coral morphological structure predicts decline of juvenile reef fishes.

Rapid intensification of environmental disturbances has sparked widespread decline and compositional shifts in foundation species in ecosystems worldwide. Now, an emergent challenge is to understand the consequences of shifts and losses in such habitat-forming species for associated communities and ecosystem processes. Recently, consecutive coral bleaching events shifted the morphological makeup of habitat-forming coral assemblages on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Considering the disparity of coral morphological growth forms in shelter provision for reef fishes, we investigated how shifts in the morphological structure of coral assemblages affect the abundance of juvenile and adult reef fishes. We used a temporal dataset from shallow reefs in the northern GBR to estimate coral convexity (a fine-scale quantitative morphological trait) and two widely used coral habitat descriptors (coral cover and reef rugosity) for disentangling the effects of coral morphology on reef fish assemblages. Changes in coral convexity, rather than live coral cover or reef rugosity, disproportionately affected juvenile reef fishes when compared to adults, and explained more than 20% of juvenile decline. The magnitude of this effect varied by fish body size with juveniles of small-bodied species showing higher vulnerability to changes in coral morphology. Our findings suggest that continued large-scale shifts in the relative abundance of morphological groups within coral assemblages are likely to affect population replenishment and dynamics of future reef fish communities. The different responses of juvenile and adult fishes according to habitat descriptors indicate that focusing on coarse-scale metrics alone may mask fine-scale ecological responses that are key to understand ecosystem functioning and resilience. Nonetheless, quantifying coral morphological traits may contribute to forecasting the structure of reef fish communities on novel reef ecosystems shaped by climate change.

Negligible effect of competition on coral colony growth.

Competition is an important determinant of assemblage structure and population regulation, often resulting in decreased growth, fecundity or survival. In corals, most studies testing for an effect of competition on demographic traits, such as growth, have been experimental and often impose very high levels of competition upon colonies. To more realistically assess the role of competition on coral traits, multispecies studies in the wild are required. Here, we use 5 yr of data that includes 11 coral species on the reef crest at Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef to quantify the effect of competition on growth. Additionally, we test whether species differ in their susceptibility to direct-contact (overgrowth and digestion) and overtopping competition, and whether species from some morphological groups are more likely to compete with one another than with species from other morphological groups. We also investigate the relationships between competitive ability and three key traits: growth rate, mechanical stability and fecundity. In contrast to most previous work using field manipulations of competition, we found a negligible effect of competition on growth. Acropora species consistently won overtopping encounters but lost in direct-contact encounters, and these results were consistent among the four Acropora morphological groups. In contrast, the massive Goniastrea spp. were poor at overtopping but generally won direct-contact encounters. Only tabular colonies were disproportionally more likely to compete against one another than with other morphologies. This propensity increases intraspecific relative to interspecific competition, a phenomenon that can promote coexistence when it is present among dominant competitors. Good competitors grew more quickly and had higher fecundity but were less mechanically stable, implying a tradeoff between performance during disturbance vs. performance in the absence of disturbance. We conclude that competition among adults is less likely to influence community dynamics than previously thought. If competition does have an effect, it is more likely to occur at life-stages other than adults.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Fecundity and the demographic strategies of coral morphologies.

Understanding species differences in demographic strategies is a fundamental goal of ecology. In scleractinian corals, colony morphology is tightly linked with many demographic traits, such as size-specific growth and morality. Here we test how well morphology predicts the colony size-fecundity relationship in eight species of broadcast-spawning corals. Variation in colony fecundity is greater among morphologies than between species with a similar morphology, demonstrating that colony morphology can be used as a quantitative proxy for demographic strategies. Additionally, we examine the relationship between size-specific colony fecundity and mechanical vulnerability (i.e., vulnerability to colony dislodgment). Interestingly, the relationship between size-specific fecundity and mechanical vulnerability varied among morphologies. For tabular species, the most fecund colonies are the most mechanically vulnerable, while the opposite is true for massive species. For corymbose and digitate colonies, mechanical vulnerability remains relatively constant as fecundity increases. These results reveal strong differences in the demographic tradeoffs among species of different morphologies. Using colony morphology as a quantitative proxy for demographic strategies can help predict coral community dynamics and responses to anthropogenic change.