Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation.

The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas involves the transformation of warm Atlantic waters into cold, dense overflows. These overflow waters return to the North Atlantic and form the headwaters to the deep limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The Nordic Seas are thus a key component of the AMOC. However, little is known about the response of the overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas to future climate change. Here we show using global climate models that, in contrast to the North Atlantic, the simulated density-space overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas increases throughout most of the 21st century as a result of enhanced horizontal circulation and a strengthened zonal density gradient. The increased Nordic Seas overturning is furthermore manifested in the overturning circulation in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. A strengthened Nordic Seas overturning circulation could therefore be a stabilizing factor in the future AMOC.

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models.

Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the "Arctic Ocean Amplification." The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth's regions most susceptible to climate change.

Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15875.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean.

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981-2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.

Bimodal Winter Haul-Out Patterns of Adult Weddell Seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Southern Weddell Sea.

Hauling out is an essential component of pinniped life-history. Haul-out behaviour may be affected by biological (e.g. sex, age and condition) and physical factors (e.g. food availability and environmental conditions), and identifying these factors may help explain the spatio-temporal distribution and habitat use of pinnipeds. The aim of this study is to describe observed winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals in the Weddell Sea and investigate the role of potential predictors to gain insight into the way these animals interact with the physical environment in this region. We examined the haul-out behaviour in relation to available biological (i.e., diving effort, sex) and physical information (i.e., sun angle). Thirty-three satellite telemetry tags were deployed on adult Weddell seals in the southern Weddell Sea during February 2007, 2009 and 2011, following their annual moult recording information on the behavioural mode of the animal: at surface, hauled out or diving. At the end of the austral summer Weddell seals spent, on average, more than 40% of their time hauled out on the ice. Under constant light conditions, it appears that physiological factors drive sex differences in the timing and duration of haul-out behaviour, with females spending on average more time hauled out than males during daylight hours. This time spent hauled-out declined to around 15% in both sexes by the beginning of autumn and remained at this level with a clear nocturnal haul-out pattern during the winter. The time spent diving increased during this period, indicating an increase in foraging effort during the winter months, and led to a common haul-out pattern in both sexes over winter. We found a positive relationship between haul-out duration and the percentage of time spent diving prior to a haul-out in both sexes, with the exception of female daytime haul-outs early in the year.