Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model.

BACKGROUND: Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. RESULTS: Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model's predictions on the disease's course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. CONCLUSION: Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.

A meta-analysis of the effects of synchronization protocols applied to sheep in Turkey on pregnancy rates during breeding and non-breeding seasons.

This study aimed to determine common pregnancy rates and effect sizes with meta-analysis of studies investigating the effect of different synchronization protocols applied to sheep during breeding and non-breeding seasons on pregnancy rates. Common pregnancy rates were estimated by coalescing pregnancy rates of studies performed independently, and heterogeneity between the studies was investigated. The meta-analysis included 24 studies that determined pregnancy rates in 78 different groups consisting of 1934 sheep with five different synchronization protocols in Turkey between 2001 and 2020. Among the different synchronization methods, the P4+PMSG group (90.37%) during the breeding season and P4+PGF2α (69.77%) and P4 (68.75%) groups during the non-breeding season showed the highest pregnancy rate. Also, the effect size of P4+PMSG application during the breeding season was calculated as 0.934 (95% confidence interval: 0.901-0.967), and the effect size of P4+PGF2α application during the non-breeding season was calculated as 0.709 (95% confidence interval: 0.406-1.013). To conclude, the combination of P4+PMSG during the breeding season and progestogen and other hormone applications during the non-breeding season are the most effective methods for estrus synchronization and for achieving the desired pregnancy rates.