Dental Surgical Activity in Hospitals during COVID-19: A Nationwide Observational Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: The number of surgical extractions performed in hospitals in England remains unclear. This study reports the volume of surgical extractions conducted in hospitals and change in activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide observational cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England for patients undergoing surgical removal of a tooth (defined using OPSC-4 code F09) between April 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Procedures were stratified by age, gender, and urgency (elective or nonelective), reported using descriptive statistics, number, and percentage. We conducted post hoc modeling to predict surgical activity to December 2023. In addition, we contrasted this with aggregate national data on simple dental extraction procedures and drainage of dental abscesses in hospital as well as dental activity in general practice. RESULTS: We identified a total of 569,938 episodes for the surgical removal of a tooth (females 57%). Of these, 493,056/569,938 (87%) were for adults and 76,882/569,938 (13%) children ≤18 years. Surgical extractions were most frequent in adult females. Elective cases accounted for 96% (n = 548,805/569,938) of procedures. The median number of procedures carried out per quarter was 27,256, dropping to 12,003 during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing a 56% reduction in activity. This amounted to around 61,058 cancelled procedures. Modeling predicts that this activity has not returned to prepandemic levels. CONCLUSIONS: The number of surgical extractions taking place in hospitals during the pandemic fell by 56%. The true impact of this reduction is unknown, but delayed treatment increases the risk of complications, including life-threatening infections. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT: The result of this study provides an evidence-based overview of the trends relating to surgical extractions of teeth in England taking place in hospitals. This information can be used to inform service and workforce planning to meet the needs of patients requiring surgical extractions. The data also provide an insight into the oral health needs of the population in England.

IL-1ra polymorphisms and risk of epidural-related maternal fever (EPIFEVER-2): study protocol for a multicentre, observational mechanistic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory data suggest that insufficient circulating levels of the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) are associated with intrapartum inflammation and epidural-related maternal fever, both of which increase the rate of obstetric interventions and antibiotic use during labour. Genetic polymorphisms strongly influence IL-1ra levels in the general population. We aim to examine the association between IL-1ra polymorphisms and epidural-related maternal fever using Mendelian randomization analysis. METHODS: EPIFEVER-2 is a multicentre UK trial enrolling 637 women receiving epidural analgesia for labour. Blood samples obtained no later than four hours after epidural insertion will provide deoxyribonucleic acid for Taqman single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping for presence/absence of rs6743376, rs1542176 alleles for IL-1ra, to establish the genetic score. The absence of both alleles is associated with the lowest IL-1ra levels. The primary outcome is pyrexia (>38°C) or intrapartum antibiotic administration. Secondary outcomes include mode of delivery, maternal and neonatal healthcare interventions. RESULTS: The EPIFEVER-2 study was prospectively registered (ISRCTN99641204) following ethical approval. Participant recruitment began in May 2021, with 221 women recruited across three centres as of November 21, 2021. CONCLUSIONS: EPIFEVER-2 will generate the largest prospective dataset detailing the incidence and consequences of epidural-related maternal fever. Using Mendelian randomisation analysis, a causative role for lower IL1-ra levels in determining the risk of epidural-related maternal fever and/or antibiotic administration before delivery will be examined.

Functional decline after major elective non-cardiac surgery: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

Self-reported postoperative functional recovery is an important patient-centred outcome that is rarely measured or considered in research and decision-making. We conducted a secondary analysis of the measurement of exercise tolerance before surgery (METS) study for associations of peri-operative variables with functional decline after major non-cardiac surgery. Patients who were at least 40 years old, had or were at risk of, coronary artery disease and who were scheduled for non-cardiac surgery were recruited. Primary outcome was a reduction in mobility, self-care or ability to conduct usual activities (EuroQol 5 dimension) from before surgery to 30 days and 1 year after surgery. A decline in at least one function was reported by 523/1309 (40%) participants at 30 days and 320/1309 (24%) participants at 1 year. Participants who reported higher pre-operative Duke Activity Status indices more often reported functional decline 30 days after surgery and less often reported functional decline 1 year after surgery. The odds ratios (95%CI) of functional decline 30 days and 1 year after surgery with moderate or severe postoperative complications were 1.46 (1.02-2.09), p = 0.037 and 1.44 (0.98-2.13), p = 0.066. Discrimination of participants who reported functional decline 30 days and 1 year after surgery were poor (c-statistic 0.61 and 0.63, respectively). In summary, one quarter of participants reported functional decline up to one postoperative year.

Mortality after surgery with SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: a population-wide epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted elective and emergency surgery around the world. We aimed to confirm the incidence of perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated mortality after surgery. METHODS: Analysis of routine electronic health record data from NHS hospitals in England. We extracted data from Hospital Episode Statistics in England describing adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The exposure was SARS-CoV-2 infection defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The primary outcome measure was 90 day in-hospital mortality. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, presence of cancer, surgical procedure type and admission acuity. Results are presented as n (%) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 2 666 978 patients undergoing surgery of whom 28 777 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 26 364 (1.0%) patients died in hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a much greater risk of death (SARS-CoV-2: 6153/28 777 [21.4%] vs no SARS-CoV-2: 20 211/2 638 201 [0.8%]; OR=5.7 [95% CI, 5.5-5.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing elective surgery, 2412/1 857 586 (0.1%) had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 172/2412 (7.1%) died, compared with 1414/1 857 586 (0.1%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=25.8 [95% CI, 21.7-30.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing emergency surgery, 22 918/582 292 (3.9%) patients had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 5752/22 918 (25.1%) died, compared with 18 060/559 374 (3.4%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=5.5 [95% CI, 5.3-5.7]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHS surgical pathways suggests current infection prevention and control policies are highly effective. However, the high mortality amongst patients with SARS-CoV-2 suggests these precautions cannot be safely relaxed.

Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 response required the cancellation of all but the most urgent surgical procedures. The number of cancelled surgical procedures owing to Covid-19, and the reintroduction of surgical acivirt, was modelled. METHODS: This was a modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics data (2014-2019). Surgical procedures were grouped into four urgency classes. Expected numbers of surgical procedures performed between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were modelled. Procedure deficit was estimated using conservative assumptions and the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from the 1 June 2020. Costs were calculated using NHS reference costs and are reported as millions or billions of euros. Estimates are reported with 95 per cent confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 4 547 534 (95 per cent c.i. 3 318 195 to 6 250 771) patients with a pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. By 31 May 2020, 749 247 (513 564 to 1 077 448) surgical procedures had been cancelled. Assuming that elective surgery is reintroduced gradually, 2 328 193 (1 483 834 - 3 450 043) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28 February 2021. The cost of delayed procedures is €5.3 (3.1 to 8.0) billion. Safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources costing €526.8 (449.3 to 633.9) million. CONCLUSION: As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, provision of elective surgery will be delayed and associated with increased healthcare costs.

Age of patients undergoing surgery.

BACKGROUND: Advancing age is independently associated with poor postoperative outcomes. The ageing of the general population is a major concern for healthcare providers. Trends in age were studied among patients undergoing surgery in the National Health Service in England. METHODS: Time trend ecological analysis was undertaken of Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics data for England from 1999 to 2015. The proportion of patients undergoing surgery in different age groupings, their pooled mean age, and change in age profile over time were calculated. Growth in the surgical population was estimated, with associated costs, to the year 2030 by use of linear regression modelling. RESULTS: Some 68 205 695 surgical patient episodes (31 220 341 men, 45·8 per cent) were identified. The mean duration of hospital stay was 5·3 days. The surgical population was older than the general population of England; this gap increased over time (1999: 47·5 versus 38·3 years; 2015: 54·2 versus 39·7 years). The number of people aged 75 years or more undergoing surgery increased from 544 998 (14·9 per cent of that age group) in 1999 to 1 012 517 (22·9 per cent) in 2015. By 2030, it is estimated that one-fifth of the 75 years and older age category will undergo surgery each year (1·49 (95 per cent c.i. 1·43 to 1·55) million people), at a cost of €3·2 (3·1 to 3·5) billion. CONCLUSION: The population having surgery in England is ageing at a faster rate than the general population. Healthcare policies must adapt to ensure that provision of surgical treatments remains safe and sustainable.

Preoperative systemic inflammation and perioperative myocardial injury: prospective observational multicentre cohort study of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammation is pivotal in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. As inflammation can directly cause cardiomyocyte injury, we hypothesised that established systemic inflammation, as reflected by elevated preoperative neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >4, predisposes patients to perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: We prospectively recruited 1652 patients aged ≥45 yr who underwent non-cardiac surgery in two UK centres. Serum high sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) concentrations were measured on the first three postoperative days. Clinicians and investigators were blinded to the troponin results. The primary outcome was perioperative myocardial injury, defined as hsTnT≥14 ng L-1 within 3 days after surgery. We assessed whether myocardial injury was associated with preoperative NLR>4, activated reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation in circulating monocytes, or both. Multivariable logistic regression analysis explored associations between age, sex, NLR, Revised Cardiac Risk Index, individual leukocyte subsets, and myocardial injury. Flow cytometric quantification of ROS was done in 21 patients. Data are presented as n (%) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Preoperative NLR>4 was present in 239/1652 (14.5%) patients. Myocardial injury occurred in 405/1652 (24.5%) patients and was more common in patients with preoperative NLR>4 [OR: 2.56 (1.92-3.41); P<0.0001]. Myocardial injury was independently associated with lower absolute preoperative lymphocyte count [OR 1.80 (1.50-2.17); P<0.0001] and higher absolute preoperative monocyte count [OR 1.93 (1.12-3.30); P=0.017]. Monocyte ROS generation correlated with NLR (r=0.47; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative NLR>4 is associated with perioperative myocardial injury, independent of conventional risk factors. Systemic inflammation may contribute to the development of perioperative myocardial injury. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01842568.

Cardiac vagal dysfunction and myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery: a planned secondary analysis of the measurement of Exercise Tolerance before surgery study.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of perioperative myocardial injury is poorly understood and not clearly linked to pre-existing cardiovascular disease. We hypothesised that loss of cardioprotective vagal tone [defined by impaired heart rate recovery ≤12 beats min-1 (HRR ≤12) 1 min after cessation of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing] was associated with perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: We conducted a pre-defined, secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective cohort study of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Participants were aged ≥40 yr undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The exposure was impaired HRR (HRR≤12). The primary outcome was postoperative myocardial injury, defined by serum troponin concentration within 72 h after surgery. The analysis accounted for established markers of cardiac risk [Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP)]. RESULTS: A total of 1326 participants were included [mean age (standard deviation), 64 (10) yr], of whom 816 (61.5%) were male. HRR≤12 occurred in 548 patients (41.3%). Myocardial injury was more frequent amongst patients with HRR≤12 [85/548 (15.5%) vs HRR>12: 83/778 (10.7%); odds ratio (OR), 1.50 (1.08-2.08); P=0.016, adjusted for RCRI). HRR declined progressively in patients with increasing numbers of RCRI factors. Patients with ≥3 RCRI factors were more likely to have HRR≤12 [26/36 (72.2%) vs 0 factors: 167/419 (39.9%); OR, 3.92 (1.84-8.34); P<0.001]. NT pro-BNP greater than a standard prognostic threshold (>300 pg ml-1) was more frequent in patients with HRR≤12 [96/529 (18.1%) vs HRR>12 59/745 (7.9%); OR, 2.58 (1.82-3.64); P<0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired HRR is associated with an increased risk of perioperative cardiac injury. These data suggest a mechanistic role for cardiac vagal dysfunction in promoting perioperative myocardial injury.

Correction to: Improving care at scale: process evaluation of a multi-component quality improvement intervention to reduce mortality after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH trial).

Following the publication of this article [1], the authors reported a number of errors which are given below.

Improving care at scale: process evaluation of a multi-component quality improvement intervention to reduce mortality after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH trial).

BACKGROUND: Improving the quality and safety of perioperative care is a global priority. The Enhanced Peri-Operative Care for High-risk patients (EPOCH) trial was a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial of a quality improvement (QI) programme to improve 90-day survival for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery in 93 hospitals in the UK National Health Service. METHODS: The aim of this process evaluation is to describe how the EPOCH intervention was planned, delivered and received, at both cluster and local hospital levels. The QI programme comprised of two interventions: a care pathway and a QI intervention to aid pathway implementation, focussed on stakeholder engagement, QI teamwork, data analysis and feedback and applying the model for improvement. Face-to-face training and online resources were provided to support senior clinicians in each hospital (QI leads) to lead improvement. For this evaluation, we collated programme activity data, administered an exit questionnaire to QI leads and collected ethnographic data in six hospitals. Qualitative data were analysed with thematic or comparative analysis; quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The EPOCH trial did not demonstrate any improvement in survival or length of hospital stay. Whilst the QI programme was delivered as planned at the cluster level, self-assessed intervention fidelity at the hospital level was variable. Seventy-seven of 93 hospitals responded to the exit questionnaire (60 from a single QI lead response on behalf of the team); 33 respondents described following the QI intervention closely (35%) and there were only 11 of 37 care pathway processes that > 50% of respondents reported attempting to improve. Analysis of qualitative data suggests QI leads were often attempting to deliver the intervention in challenging contexts: the social aspects of change such as engaging colleagues were identified as important but often difficult and clinicians frequently attempted to lead change with limited time or organisational resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant organisational challenges faced by QI leads shaped their choice of pathway components to focus on and implementation approaches taken. Adaptation causing loss of intervention fidelity was therefore due to rational choices made by those implementing change within constrained contexts. Future large-scale QI programmes will need to focus on dedicating local time and resources to improvement as well as on training to develop QI capabilities. EPOCH TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN80682973 https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN80682973 Registered 27 February 2014 and Lancet protocol 13PRT/7655.

Association of preoperative anaemia with postoperative morbidity and mortality: an observational cohort study in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is associated with poor postoperative outcomes, but few studies have described the impact of preoperative anaemia in low- and middle- (LMICs), and high-income countries (HICs). METHODS: This was a planned analysis of data collected during an international 7 day cohort study of adults undergoing elective inpatient surgery. The primary outcome was in-hospital death, and the secondary outcomes were in-hospital complications. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin <12 g dl-1 for females and <13 g dl-1 for males. Hierarchical three-level mixed-effect logistic regression models were constructed to examine the associations between preoperative anaemia and outcomes. RESULTS: We included 38 770 patients from 474 hospitals in 27 countries of whom 11 675 (30.1%) were anaemic. Of these, 6886 (17.8%) patients suffered a complication and 198 (0.5%) died. Patients from LMICs were younger with lower ASA physical status scores, but a similar prevalence of anaemia [LMIC: 5072 (32.5%) of 15 585 vs HIC: 6603 (28.5%) of 23 185]. Patients with moderate [odds ratio (OR): 2.70; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.88-3.87] and severe anaemia (OR: 4.09; 95% CI: 1.90-8.81) were at an increased risk of death in both HIC and LMICs. Complication rates increased with the severity of anaemia. Compared with patients in LMICs, those in HICs experienced fewer complications after an interaction term analysis [LMIC (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) vs HIC (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.84-0.87); P<0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients undergoing elective surgery are anaemic. These patients have an increased risk of complications and death. The prevalence of anaemia is similar amongst patients in LMICs despite their younger age and lower risk profile. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN51817007.

A systematic review and consensus definitions for standardised end-points in perioperative medicine: pulmonary complications.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for robust, clearly defined, patient-relevant outcome measures for use in randomised trials in perioperative medicine. Our objective was to establish standard outcome measures for postoperative pulmonary complications research. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, Web of Science, SciELO, and the Korean Journal Database. Definitions were extracted from included manuscripts. We then conducted a three-stage Delphi consensus process to select the optimal outcome measures in terms of methodological quality and overall suitability for perioperative trials. RESULTS: From 2358 records, the full texts of 81 manuscripts were retrieved, of which 45 met the inclusion criteria. We identified three main categories of outcome measure specific to perioperative pulmonary outcomes: (i) composite outcome measures of multiple pulmonary outcomes (27 definitions); (ii) pneumonia (12 definitions); and (iii) respiratory failure (six definitions). These were rated by the group according to suitability for routine use. The majority of definitions were given a low score, and many were imprecise, difficult to apply consistently, or both, in large patient populations. A small number of highly rated definitions were identified as appropriate for widespread use. The group then recommended four outcome measures for future use, including one new definition. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of postoperative pulmonary outcome measures have been used, but most are poorly defined. Our four recommended outcome measures include a new definition of postoperative pulmonary complications, incorporating an assessment of severity. These definitions will meet the needs of most clinical effectiveness trials of treatments to improve postoperative pulmonary outcomes.

Arterial pulse pressure and postoperative morbidity in high-risk surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Systemic arterial pulse pressure (systolic minus diastolic pressure) ≤53 mm Hg in patients with cardiac failure is correlated with reduced stroke volume and is independently associated with accelerated morbidity and mortality. Given that deconditioned surgical and heart failure patients share similar cardiopulmonary physiology, we examined whether lower pulse pressure is associated with excess morbidity after major surgery. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study of patients deemed by their preoperative assessors to be at higher risk of postoperative morbidity. Preoperative pulse pressure was calculated before cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The primary outcome was any morbidity (PostOperative Morbidity Survey) occurring within 5 days of surgery, stratified by pulse pressure threshold ≤53 mm Hg. The relationship between pulse pressure, postoperative morbidity, and oxygen pulse (a robust surrogate for left ventricular stroke volume) was examined using logistic regression analysis (accounting for age, sex, BMI, cardiometabolic co-morbidity, and operation type). RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 578/660 (87.6%) patients, but postoperative morbidity was more common in 243/ 660 patients with preoperative pulse pressure ≤53 mm Hg{odds ratio (OR): 2.24 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-3.38]; P<0.001). Pulse pressure ≤53 mm Hg [OR:1.23 (95% CI: 1.03-1.46); P=0.02] and type of surgery were independently associated with all-cause postoperative morbidity (multivariate analysis). Oxygen pulse <90% of population-predicted normal values was associated with pulse pressure ≤ 53 mm Hg [OR: 1.93 (95% CI: 1.32-2.84); P=0.007]. CONCLUSIONS: In deconditioned surgical patients, lower preoperative systemic arterial pulse pressure is associated with excess morbidity. These data are strikingly similar to meta-analyses identifying low pulse pressure as an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiac failure. Low preoperative pulse pressure is a readily available measure, indicating that detailed physiological assessment may be warranted. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCT registry, ISRCTN88456378.

The surgical safety checklist and patient outcomes after surgery: a prospective observational cohort study, systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The surgical safety checklist is widely used to improve the quality of perioperative care. However, clinicians continue to debate the clinical effectiveness of this tool. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data from the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), an international observational study of elective in-patient surgery, accompanied by a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature. The exposure was surgical safety checklist use. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was postoperative complications. In the ISOS cohort, a multivariable multi-level generalized linear model was used to test associations. To further contextualise these findings, we included the results from the ISOS cohort in a meta-analysis. Results are reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We included 44 814 patients from 497 hospitals in 27 countries in the ISOS analysis. There were 40 245 (89.8%) patients exposed to the checklist, whilst 7508 (16.8%) sustained ≥1 postoperative complications and 207 (0.5%) died before hospital discharge. Checklist exposure was associated with reduced mortality [odds ratio (OR) 0.49 (0.32-0.77); P<0.01], but no difference in complication rates [OR 1.02 (0.88-1.19); P=0.75]. In a systematic review, we screened 3732 records and identified 11 eligible studies of 453 292 patients including the ISOS cohort. Checklist exposure was associated with both reduced postoperative mortality [OR 0.75 (0.62-0.92); P<0.01; I2=87%] and reduced complication rates [OR 0.73 (0.61-0.88); P<0.01; I2=89%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine.

Inter-observer reliability of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise test interpretation: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing importance of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) for preoperative risk assessment, the reliability of CPET interpretation is unclear. We aimed to assess inter-observer reliability of preoperative CPET. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multi-centre, observational study of preoperative CPET interpretation. Participants were professionals with previous experience or training in CPET, assessed by a standardized questionnaire. Each participant interpreted 100 tests using standardized software. The CPET variables of interest were oxygen consumption at the anaerobic threshold (AT) and peak oxygen consumption (VO2 peak). Inter-observer reliability was measured using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) with a random effects model. Results are presented as ICC with 95% confidence interval, where ICC of 1 represents perfect agreement and ICC of 0 represents no agreement. RESULTS: Participants included 8/28 (28.6%) clinical physiologists, 10 (35.7%) junior doctors, and 10 (35.7%) consultant doctors. The median previous experience was 140 (inter-quartile range 55-700) CPETs. After excluding the first 10 tests (acclimatization) for each participant and missing data, the primary analysis of AT and VO2 peak included 2125 and 2414 tests, respectively. Inter-observer agreement for numerical values of AT [ICC 0.83 (0.75-0.90)] and VO2 peak [ICC 0.88 (0.84-0.92)] was good. In a post hoc analysis, inter-observer agreement for identification of the presence of a reportable AT was excellent [ICC 0.93 (0.91-0.95)] and a reportable VO2 peak was moderate [0.73 (0.64-0.80)]. CONCLUSIONS: Inter-observer reliability of interpretation of numerical values of two commonly used CPET variables was good (>80%). However, inter-observer agreement regarding the presence of a reportable value was less consistent.

Elevated preoperative heart rate is associated with cardiopulmonary and autonomic impairment in high-risk surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Elevated preoperative heart rate (HR) is associated with perioperative myocardial injury and death. In apparently healthy individuals, high resting HR is associated with development of cardiac failure. Given that patients with overt cardiac failure have poor perioperative outcomes, we hypothesized that subclinical cardiac failure, identified by cardiopulmonary exercise testing, was associated with elevated preoperative HR > 87 beats min -1 (HR > 87). METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of an observational cohort study of surgical patients aged ≥45 yr. The exposure of interest was HR > 87, recorded at rest before preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The predefined outcome measures were the following established predictors of mortality in patients with overt cardiac failure in the general population: ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide ( V˙E/V˙co2 ) ratio ≥34, heart rate recovery ≤6 and peak oxygen uptake ( V˙o2 ) ≤14 ml kg -1  min -1 . We used logistic regression analysis to test for association between HR > 87 and markers of cardiac failure. We also examined the relationship between HR > 87 and preoperative left ventricular stroke volume in a separate cohort of patients. RESULTS: HR > 87 was present in 399/1250 (32%) patients, of whom 438/1250 (35%) had V˙E/V˙co2 ratio ≥34, 200/1250 (16%) had heart rate recovery ≤6, and 396/1250 (32%) had peak V˙o2 ≤14 ml kg -1  min -1 . HR > 87 was independently associated with peak V˙o2 ≤14 ml kg -1  min -1 {odds ratio (OR) 1.69 [1.12-3.55]; P =0.01} and heart rate recovery ≤6 (OR 2.02 [1.30-3.14]; P <0.01). However, HR > 87 was not associated with V˙E/V˙co2 ratio ≥34 (OR 1.31 [0.92-1.87]; P =0.14). In a separate cohort, HR > 87 (33/181; 18.5%) was associated with impaired preoperative stroke volume (OR 3.21 [1.26-8.20]; P =0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated preoperative heart rate is associated with impaired cardiopulmonary performance consistent with clinically unsuspected, subclinical cardiac failure. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN88456378.

Association between preoperative pulse pressure and perioperative myocardial injury: an international observational cohort study of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: The management of elevated blood pressure before non-cardiac surgery remains controversial. Pulse pressure is a stronger predictor of cardiovascular morbidity in the general population than systolic blood pressure alone. We hypothesized that preoperative pulse pressure was associated with perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Vascular Events in Non-cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) international cohort study. Participants were aged ≥45 yr and undergoing non-cardiac surgery at 12 hospitals in eight countries. The primary outcome was myocardial injury, defined using serum troponin concentration, within 30 days after surgery. The sample was stratified into quintiles by preoperative pulse pressure. Multivariable logistic regression analysis explored associations between pulse pressure and myocardial injury. We accounted for potential confounding by systolic blood pressure and other co-morbidities known to be associated with postoperative cardiovascular complications. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred and ninety-one of 15 057 (7.9%) patients sustained myocardial injury, which was more frequent amongst patients in the highest two preoperative pulse pressure quintiles {63-75 mm Hg, risk ratio (RR) 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.28], P =0.03; >75 mm Hg, RR 1.15 [95% CI: 1.03-1.29], P =0.02}. After adjustment for systolic blood pressure, preoperative pulse pressure remained the dominant predictor of myocardial injury (63-75 mm Hg, RR 1.20 [95% CI: 1.05-1.37], P <0.01; >75 mm Hg, RR 1.25 [95% CI: 1.06-1.48], P <0.01). Systolic blood pressure >160 mm Hg was not associated with myocardial injury in the absence of pulse pressure >62 mm Hg (RR 0.67 [95% CI: 0.30-1.44], P =0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative pulse pressure >62 mm Hg was associated with myocardial injury, independent of systolic blood pressure. Elevated pulse pressure may be a useful clinical sign to guide strategies to reduce perioperative myocardial injury.

Frequency of surgical treatment and related hospital procedures in the UK: a national ecological study using hospital episode statistics.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence of high activity, the number of surgical procedures performed in UK hospitals, their cost and subsequent mortality remain unclear. METHODS: Time-trend ecological study using hospital episode data from England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The primary outcome was the number of in-hospital procedures, grouped using three increasingly specific categories of surgery. Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, length of hospital stay and healthcare costs according to standard National Health Service tariffs. RESULTS: Between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2014, 39 631 801 surgical patient episodes were recorded. There was an annual average of 7 926 360 procedures (inclusive category), 5 104 165 procedures (intermediate category) and 1 526 421 procedures (restrictive category). This equates to 12 537, 8073 and 2414 procedures per 100 000 population per year, respectively. On average there were 85 181 deaths (1.1%) within 30 days of a procedure each year, rising to 178 040 deaths (2.3%) after 90 days. Approximately 62.8% of all procedures were day cases. Median length of stay for in-patient procedures was 1.7 (1.3-2.0) days. The total cost of surgery over the 5 yr period was £54.6 billion ($104.4 billion), representing an average annual cost of £10.9 billion (inclusive), £9.5 billion (intermediate) and £5.6 billion (restrictive). For each category, the number of procedures increased each year, while mortality decreased. One-third of all mortalities in national death registers occurred within 90 days of a procedure (inclusive category). CONCLUSIONS: The number of surgical procedures in the UK varies widely according to definition. The number of procedures is slowly increasing whilst the number of deaths is decreasing.