Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African countries.

Climate change has been linked to water scarcity, land degradation, and food insecurity, exacerbating existing tensions and creating new conflicts in countries with weak political institutions. Despite the critical need for effective conflict management and climate adaptation measures, prior studies failed to emphasize the role climate change plays in civil clashes in conflict-affected countries. In this research, we undertake a comprehensive investigation of the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts in 14 selected SSA nations between 1996 and 2016. The study embraces contemporary heterogeneous panel techniques to address heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence issues that usually appear in panel data estimates. We employed second-generation unit root tests, such as CADF and CIPS, to determine the order of integration of the variables. In addition, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed the long-run relationship among the variables. Although temperatures were insignificant, the long-run results of the pooled mean group (PMG) approach suggested that civil conflicts decline when precipitation increases. In addition, the outcomes indicate that environmental degradation and population growth are long-run aggravators of social unrest. The short-run results suggest that rising temperatures exacerbate civil conflicts in the selected SSA countries. However, the study found that government stability lessens internal conflicts in the short run, but not in the long run. The DOLS technique validated the long-run outcomes of the PMG technique. Based on the findings of the study, conflict-prone SSA countries should integrate climate change adaptation and conflict prevention strategies, implement sustainable water resource management practices, and endorse climate-related conflict resolution.

Toward a sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa: do economic complexity and renewable energy improve environmental quality?

Emission reduction has become more crucial for environmental sustainability in light of the growing concerns about climate change. Many studies have identified that structural change and clean energy technologies improve environmental quality. However, there is an absence of empirics that focus on the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) context, which shifted the structure of their economies from the agriculture sector towards sophisticated manufacturing activities that affect the environment. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impacts of economic complexity and renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions in 41 SSA countries between 1999 and 2018. The study adopts contemporary heterogeneous panel approaches to overcome heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence issues that usually arise in panel data estimates. The empirical findings of the pooled mean group (PMG) cointegration analysis indicate that renewable energy consumption alleviates environmental pollution in the long run and short run. In contrast, economic complexity improves environmental quality in the long run but not in the short run. On the other hand, economic growth contributes adversely to environmental degradation in the long run and short run. The study indicates that urbanization worsens environmental pollution in the long run. In addition, the outcomes of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicate a unidirectional causal path from carbon emissions to renewable energy consumption. The causality results also suggest that carbon emission has bidirectional causation with economic complexity, economic growth, and urbanization. Therefore, the study recommends that SSA countries change their economic structure towards knowledge-intensive production and adopt policies that encourage investment in renewable energy infrastructures by subsidizing the initiatives to achieve clean energy technologies.

Modelling the impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in East Africa: evidence from heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis.

Climate change has become an issue of concern for sustainable agriculture production. East African nations are heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, which accounts for a substantial amount of their gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Due to climatic fluctuations, the output of the sector became very unpredictable. Hence, this study investigates the effects of climate change on cereal crop production in nine East African nations between 1990 and 2018. The study implemented pooled mean group (PMG) approach to examine the long-run and short-run dynamic impacts of the varying climatic circumstances on the output of cereal crops. The results reveal that rainfall and carbon emissions have favourable and significant long-run effects on cereal crop output, even though their short-run impacts are negligible. Additionally, cultivated land area and rural population have a constructive role in enhancing agricultural output both in the long-run and short-run. However, average temperatures have negative repercussions on cereal crop production in the long-run and short-run, even though the magnitude of sensitivity is greater in the short-run. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) validated the robustness of the long-run findings of the PMG technique. Besides, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality outcomes indicate that cereal crop output has a bidirectional causality with temperature, carbon emissions, and cropped area. The study further demonstrated unidirectional causation from rural population to cereal crop yield. The study recommends that East African policymakers improve the quality of farm inputs, the adoption of climate-resilient farming practices, the development of water retention facilities and the establishment of crop diversification initiatives.