Willingness of West African Consumers to Buy Food Produced Using Black Soldier Fly Larvae and Frass.

The use of black soldier fly (BSF) larvae and frass in agriculture can make an important contribution to food and nutrition security. However, it is important to understand whether consumers are willing to consume food products resulting from the use of BSF larvae as animal feed or BSF frass as fertilizer. This study employed the stated preference approach as food products produced using BSF larvae and frass are not currently available on the market. Questionnaires were administered to a total of 4412 consumers in Ghana (1360), Mali (1603), and Niger (1449). The results show that the vast majority of respondents are willing to consume vegetables (88%) produced using BSF frass and meat (87%) produced using animal feed made of BSF larvae. A smaller percentage of respondents are even willing to pay USD 1.32 and USD 1.7 more if the base price of BSF-based products were USD 5 per kg. Age, gender, education, and country positively influenced the respondents' willingness to consume food produced using BSF products. In contrast, neighborhood status, income, and household size are inversely related to the respondents' willingness to pay for and consume these products. Our findings are, therefore, important to scaling up BSF technologies in the region.

Estimating seed demand in the presence of market frictions: Evidence from an auction experiment in Nigeria.

This paper measures the effect of seed quality misperceptions on bidding behavior and demand for high-quality seed using an information-provision experiment within an incentive-compatible Vickery Second Price (SPA) auction mechanism that mimics seed purchasing decisions in the presence of seed market frictions. We find that most individuals are prone to quality misperception and revise their bids upwards (downwards) in response to positive (negative) quality signals. In addition, by exploiting random variation in the timing of cash grants, we show that imperfect information influences farmer seed valuation, even in the presence of potentially binding liquidity constraints. We also demonstrate that the provision of quality information does not fully resolve quality misperceptions. We then show that unresolved or persistent misperception is severe enough to distort bidding behavior, and ignoring it could lead to biased willingness-to-pay estimates. Our findings have important implications both for improving inference related to the identification and estimation of willingness to pay for quality seed in the presence of market frictions, and for the design of seed sector polices in developing countries.

Sustainable maize intensification through site-specific nutrient management advice: Experimental evidence from Nigeria.

There is growing evidence on the impacts of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) from Asia. The evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where SSNM developments are more recent and where conditions concerning soil fertility and fertilizer use differ importantly from those in Asia, is extremely scarce. We evaluate a SSNM advisory tool that allows extension agents to generate fertilizer recommendations tailored to the specific situation of an individual farmer's field, using a three-year randomized controlled trial with 792 smallholder farmers in the maize belt of northern Nigeria. Two treatment arms were implemented: T1 and T2 both provide SSNM information on nutrient use and management, but T2 provides additional information on maize price distributions and the associated variability of expected returns to fertilizer use. We estimate average and heterogenous intent-to-treat effects on agronomic, economic and environmental plot-level outcomes. We find that T1 and T2 lead to substantial increases (up to 116%) in the adoption of good fertilizer management practices and T2 leads to incremental increases (up to 18%) in nutrient application rates, yields and revenues. Both treatments improve low levels of nutrient use efficiency and reduce high levels of greenhouse gas emission intensity, after two years of treatment. Our findings underscore the possibility of a more gradual and sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture in SSA, as compared with the Asian Green Revolution, through increased fertilizer use accompanied by improved fertilizer management.

Gender differentiation on the determinants and intensity of adoption of Purdue improved cowpea storage (PICS) bags in Northern Nigeria.

Postharvest and storage of agricultural produce such as cowpea remains a significant challenge in sub-Sahara Africa. This study assessed gender differentiation on the determinants and intensity of adoption of Purdue-improved cowpea storage (PICS) bags in northern Nigeria. Primary data was collected via a well-questionnaire from Kano, Kaduna, Gombe, Bauchi, Plateau, and the Niger States. Each State was purposively selected based on the concentration and availability of female PICS bag users. From the sampling frame 2989, 20% of male and female small-scale cowpea farmers were randomly selected, totalling 598 cowpea farmers. Descriptive and double-hurdle regression models were used. The result of the socioeconomic analysis indicated that farmers' mean age was 42 years, with an average of 8 persons per household and a dependency ratio of 1.19. Years of schooling were 10 with a farming experience of 25 years and 2.17 ha as the average farm size. Results of the Logit model in males were significant for (extension contact, PICS information from other farmers and radio sources, and cowpea income, bags non-available) and for females (age, awareness, extension contact, PICS information from other farmers and radio source, bags non-available). The truncated regression model was significant in males (cowpea income) and females (education, output, and bags non-available). Adopting PICS bag technology by cowpea farming households enhanced female farmers' adoption. Therefore, policymakers should implement methods to motivate female farmers to adopt this technology further.

Drivers of transformation of the maize sector in Nigeria.

Maize is widely used for food, animal feed, and industrial raw material in Nigeria. This paper documents the important changes that characterize Nigeria's maize production and area expansion along with contributing factors that have transformed maize from a backyard food crop to a dominant food security and commercial crop. Using both secondary and primary data on maize production and varietal adoption over the last six decades, we found that Nigeria now produces ten times more maize than it did in 1960 and four times more maize than it did in 2005. Our findings further suggested that government policies and institutional arrangements that promoted access to and use of modern inputs and increased demand of maize grain for food, feed, and other industrial uses have played major roles in transforming maize from a backyard crop to a dominant staple and commercial crop in Nigeria. Considering the impeding climate change threats to food security in Nigeria, policy interventions should be tailored towards further scaling-up of stress resilient and climate-smart maize varieties to improve the productivity, income, and resilience of smallholder farmers. This requires strong support not only to get recently released superior improved varieties into the hands of smallholder farmers but also to accelerate varietal turnover.

Does youth participation in the farming program impact farm productivity and household welfare? Evidence from Nigeria.

One significant issue in the Global South, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, is youth unemployment. This is a result of the aging and shrinking agriculture industry, increased unemployment rates mixed with a sizable unskilled workforce, and rapid population expansion. Studies have shown that farming programs, when supported by increased investment and regulatory frameworks, provide opportunities for meaningful employment for many young people. This study attempts to estimate the impact of youth participation in farming programs on farm productivity and welfare using rice-growing household data from northern Nigeria. We used propensity score matching (PSM) and endogenous switching regression (ESR) to address biases that may arise from both observed and unobserved factors. Our results show that age, education, household size, farm size, extension, access to credit, and membership of a social group are positive and significantly associated with youth participation in farming programs. The outcome demonstrates that participants fare better than non-participants in terms of farm productivity and welfare status. Furthermore, youth participation in farming programs has implications for heterogeneity within the participant group, which depends on socio-economic characteristics such as access to finance, association membership, and education, emphasizing the need for specific interventions and focusing on particular youth groups. Therefore, access to credit through relevant agencies with low interest rates and flexible payment options, strengthening youth organization could encourage participation in farming programs and job opportunities for the prosperity of the rural economy.

Impact of CGIAR maize germplasm in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study reports on the adoption and impacts of CGIAR-related maize varieties in 18 major maize-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during 1995-2015. Of the 1345 maize varieties released during this timeframe, approximately 60% had a known CGIAR parentage. About 34% (9.5 million ha) of the total maize area in 2015 was cultivated with 'new' CGIAR-related maize varieties released between 1995 and 2015. In the same year, an additional 13% of the maize area was cultivated with 'old' CGIAR-related maize varieties released before 1995. The aggregate annual economic benefit of using new CGIAR-related maize germplasm for yield increase in SSA was estimated at US$1.1-1.6 billion in 2015, which we attributed equally to co-investments by CGIAR funders, public-sector national research and extension programs, and private sector partners. Given that the annual global investment in CGIAR maize breeding at its maximum was US$30 million, the benefit-cost ratios for the CGIAR investment and CGIAR-attributable portion of economic benefits varied from 12:1-17:1, under the assumption of a 5-year lag in the research investment to yield returns. The study also discusses the methodological challenges involved in large-scale impact assessments. Post-2015 CGIAR tropical maize breeding efforts have had a strong emphasis on stress tolerance.

Misperceiving and misreporting input quality: Implications for input use and productivity.

Farmers in developing countries routinely misperceive or misreport input quality for various reasons, which introduces substantial measurement error in farm survey data. In this paper, we motivate and illustrate, both analytically and empirically, the inferential and behavioral implications of misperception and misreporting using a unique crop variety identification data from Nigeria. Using a non-parametric framework for testing the presence of measurement error, we show that crop variety misclassification in our data is mostly driven by misperception. We then demonstrate the inferential challenges of treating misperception as misreporting and vice versa. Finally, we show that misperception induces crowding-in(out) of complementary agricultural inputs but these misperception-driven input allocations may not necessarily be yield-enhancing. As such, rectifying misperception by addressing agricultural input market imperfections may improve farmers' investment choices and productivity outcomes.

Household Hunger, Poverty, and Childcare in 5 States of Nigeria and Their Impacts on Nutritional Outcomes in Preschool Children.

This article presents findings from baseline surveys in 5 states of Nigeria to assess the nutritional outcomes on target groups on attaining the UN Sustainable Development Goal 2. The augmented regression technique was applied to analyze data from a sample of 1642 households with at least 1 child under the age of 5 years (U5) and their mothers or caregivers out of a total of 2500 households that were drawn from the 250 enumeration areas of the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics in the 5 states. The results support the growing evidence base that poverty and household hunger are pervasive. The incidence of poverty highlights inequalities among states. The combination of poverty and hunger was mirrored in the damning extent to which all forms of malnutrition coexisted in children U5, particularly during the second year of infancy and among poor households. Evidence from this study points to poor dietary quality of complementary food rather than other childcare practices as majorly responsible for child malnutrition. Child wellness was positively affected by maternal health-seeking behavior but negatively by the poverty probability index of the household. Notably, maternal health-seeking behavior played a more relevant role in child wellness than mothers' educational attainment.

Market participation, household food security, and income: The case of cowpea producers in northern Nigeria.

This article evaluates the impact of cowpea market participation on household food security and income in northern Nigeria. Using household survey data from a representative sample of over 1,500 farm households and applying a combination of instrumental variable techniques and dose-response functions, we found that cowpea market participation had a statistically significant positive impact on household food security and income. Cowpea market participation increased food expenditure by 1.6% and household income by 0.7% with a 10 unit increase in the quantity of cowpea sold. These results underscore the importance of cowpea market participation for household food security and income improvement. We also found that selling cowpea to rural and urban traders significantly increased household income, food expenditure, and food security. Results show that selling cowpea to rural and urban traders increased household income by 17% and 13%, respectively. The results point to the need for an enabling policy environment and public infrastructure to enhance market participation of farmers and traders. Public infrastructure investments in the form of feeder road construction and maintenance in the distant villages are encouraged, which in the long run can translate into improved cowpea productivity and welfare of smallholder farmers.

Potential returns to yam research investment in sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.

Lack of good-quality planting materials has been identified as the most severe problem militating against increased agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and beyond. However, investment of research efforts and resources in addressing this menace will only be feasible and worthwhile if attendant economic gains are considerable. As a way of investigating the economic viability of yam investment, this research has been initiated to address problems confronting yam productivity in eight countries of SSA and beyond: Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, Papua New Guinea, Jamaica, and Columbia. Research options developed were to be deployed and disseminated. Key technologies include the adaptive yam minisett technique (AYMT), varieties adapted to low soil fertility and drought, nematode-resistant cultivars (NRC), and crop management and postharvest practices (CMPP). This article aims at estimating the potential economic returns, the expected number of beneficiaries, and poverty reduction consequent to the adoption of technology options. Estimates show that the new land area that will be covered by the technologies in the eight countries will range between 770,000 ha and 1,000,000 ha with the highest quota accounted for by AYMT. The net present value will range between US$584 and US$1392 million and was highest for the NRC. The CMPP had the lowest benefit-cost ratio of 7.74. About 1,049,000 people would be moved out of poverty by these technologies by 2037 in the region. These technologies are less responsive to changes in cost than that in adoption rate. Therefore, the realization of the potential economic gains depends on the rate and extent of adoption of these technologies. Giving the knowledge-intensive nature of some of these interventions, capacity building of potential adopters will be critical to increasing the sustainability of the yam sector, thereby enhancing food security and reducing poverty.

The poverty impacts of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria: A counterfactual analysis.

Adoption of improved agricultural technologies has long been recognized as critical for reducing poverty through increased productivity, incomes, and asset accumulation. Using a nationally representative survey data from a sample of over 1500 households in Nigeria, this paper evaluates the impacts of adoption of improved cowpea varieties on income and asset poverty reduction using an endogenous switching regression model. The results showed that adoption of improved cowpea varieties increased per capita household income and asset ownership by 17 and 24 percentage points, respectively. The results based on the observed and counterfactual income and asset distributions further showed that adoption reduced both income poverty and asset poverty by 5 percentage points. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy options for increasing adoption and impacts of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria.

Agricultural technology adoption and household welfare: Measurement and evidence.

Previous studies on the adoption and impacts of improved crop varieties have relied on self-reported adoption status of the surveyed households. However, in the presence of weak variety maintenance and poorly functioning seed certification system, measurement errors in self-reported adoption status can be considerable. This paper investigates how such measurement errors can lead to biased welfare estimates. Using DNA-fingerprinting based varietal identification as a benchmark, we find that misclassification in self-reported adoption status is considerable, with significant false negative and positive response rates. We empirically show that such measurement errors lead to welfare estimates that are biased towards zero and substantially understate the poverty reduction effects of adoption. While the empirical evidence suggests attenuation bias, our theoretical exposition and simulations demonstrate that upward bias and sign reversal effects are also possible. The results point to the need for improved monitoring of the diffusion process of improved varieties through innovative adoption data collection approaches to generate robust evidence for prioritizing and justifying investments in agricultural research and extension.

Ex-ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub-Saharan Africa.

This study undertakes an ex-ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio-economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate.

Identifying crop research priorities based on potential economic and poverty reduction impacts: The case of cassava in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

It is widely recognized that increasing agricultural production to the levels needed to feed an expanding world population requires sharply increased public investment in research and development and widespread adoption of new technologies, but funding for national and international agricultural research has rather declined in recent years. In this situation, priority setting has become increasingly important for allocating scarce research resources among competing needs to achieve greater impacts. Using partial equilibrium economic surplus models and poverty impact simulations, this paper assesses cassava research priorities in Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, and Asia based on the potential economic and poverty reduction impacts of alternative research and technology options. The results showed that efficient planting material production and distribution systems and sustainable crop and soil fertility management practices have the greatest expected economic and poverty reduction impacts in the three regions. Lack of clean planting materials is a major constraint to adoption and it is envisaged that efficient production and distribution systems for planting material can accelerate technology adoption by farmers. Similarly, sustainable crop and soil fertility management practices play a key role in closing the observed yield gaps, especially in Africa. The paper discusses the results of the priority assessment for key cassava research options and concludes with the implications for cassava research priorities.

Productivity and Welfare Effects of Nigeria's e-Voucher-Based Input Subsidy Program.

In an attempt to go beyond the so called "smart" subsidies, Nigeria has embarked on a potentially innovative mobile phone-based input subsidy program that provides fertilizer and improved seed subsidies through electronic vouchers. In this article, we examined the productivity and welfare effects of the program using household-level data from rural Nigeria. The article employed instrumental variable regression approach to control for the potential endogeneity of the input subsidy program. Our results suggest that the program is effective in improving productivity and welfare outcomes of beneficiary smallholders. The size of the estimated effects suggests a large improvement in productivity and welfare outcomes. Moreover, the distributional effects of the program suggest no heterogeneity effects based on gender and farm land size. These results are robust to using alternative measurements of program participation. The benefit-cost ratio of 1.11 suggests that the program is marginally cost-effective. Overall, our results suggest that while improving average productivity is a good outcome for improving food security, improving the distributional outcome of the program by targeting the most disadvantaged groups would maximize the program's contribution to food security and poverty reduction.

Impacts of extension access and cooperative membership on technology adoption and household welfare.

This paper examines the impacts of access to extension services and cooperative membership on technology adoption, asset ownership and poverty using household-level data from rural Nigeria. Using different matching techniques and endogenous switching regression approach, we find that both extension access and cooperative membership have a positive and statistically significant effect on technology adoption and household welfare. Moreover, we find that both extension access and cooperative membership have heterogeneous impacts. In particular, we find evidence of a positive selection as the average treatment effects of extension access and cooperative membership are higher for farmers with the highest propensity to access extension and cooperative services. The impact of extension services on poverty reduction and of cooperatives on technology adoption is significantly stronger for smallholders with access to formal credit than for those without access. This implies that expanding rural financial markets can maximize the potential positive impacts of extension and cooperative services on farmers' productivity and welfare.

Measuring the impacts of adaptation strategies to drought stress: The case of drought tolerant maize varieties.

This study measured the impacts of drought tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on productivity, welfare, and risk exposure using household and plot-level data from rural Nigeria. The study employed an endogenous switching regression approach to control for both observed and unobserved sources of heterogeneity between adopters and non-adopters. Our results showed that adoption of DTMVs increased maize yields by 13.3% and reduced the level of variance by 53% and downside risk exposure by 81% among adopters. This suggests that adoption had a "win-win" outcome by increasing maize yields and reducing exposure to drought risk. The gains in productivity and risk reduction due to adoption led to a reduction of 12.9% in the incidence of poverty and of 83.8% in the probability of food scarcity among adopters. The paper concluded that adoption of DTMVs was not just a simple coping strategy against drought but also a productivity enhancing and welfare improving strategy. The results point to the need for policies and programs aimed at enhancing adoption as an adaptation strategy to drought stress in Nigeria and beyond.

An Assessment of Willingness To Pay by Maize and Groundnut Farmers for Aflatoxin Biocontrol Product in Northern Nigeria.

In Nigeria, Aflasafe is a registered biological product for reducing aflatoxin infestation of crops from the field to storage, making the crops safer for consumption. The important questions are whether farmers will purchase and apply this product to reduce aflatoxin contamination of crops, and if so under what conditions. A study was carried out to address these questions and assess determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for the product among maize and groundnut farmers in Kano and Kaduna states in Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to collect primary data from 492 farmers. The majority of farmers who had direct experience with Aflasafe (experienced farmers) in Kano (80.7%) and Kaduna (84.3%) had a WTP bid value equal to or greater than the threshold price ($10) at which Aflasafe was to be sold. The mean WTP estimates for Aflasafe for experienced farmers in Kano and Kaduna were statistically the same. However, values of $3.56 and $7.46 were offered in Kano and Kaduna states, respectively, by farmers who had never applied Aflasafe (inexperienced farmers), and the difference here was significant (P < 0.01). Regression results indicate that contact with extension agents (P < 0.01) and access to credit (P < 0.05) positively and significantly influenced the probability that a farmer would be willing to pay more for Aflasafe than the threshold price. Lack of awareness of the importance of Aflasafe was the major reason cited by inexperienced farmers (64% in Kano state and 21% in Kaduna state) for not using the product. A market strategy promoting a premium price for aflatoxin-safe produce and creating awareness and explaining the availability of Aflasafe to potential users should increase Aflasafe usage.

Will farmers intend to cultivate Provitamin A genetically modified (GM) cassava in Nigeria? Evidence from a k-means segmentation analysis of beliefs and attitudes.

Analysis of market segments within a population remains critical to agricultural systems and policy processes for targeting new innovations. Patterns in attitudes and intentions toward cultivating Provitamin A GM cassava are examined through the use of a combination of behavioural theory and k-means cluster analysis method, investigating the interrelationship among various behavioural antecedents. Using a state-level sample of smallholder cassava farmers in Nigeria, this paper identifies three distinct classes of attitude and intention denoted as low opposition, medium opposition and high opposition farmers. It was estimated that only 25% of the surveyed population of farmers was highly opposed to cultivating Provitamin A GM cassava.