COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria.

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.

From Ebola to COVID-19: emergency preparedness and response plans and actions in Lagos, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lagos state is the industrial nerve centre of Nigeria and was the epicentre of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Nigeria as it is now for the current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak. This paper describes how the lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak in 2014 informed the emergency preparedness of the State ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak and guided response. DISCUSSION: Following the Ebola outbreak in 2014, the Lagos State government provided governance by developing a policy on emergency preparedness and biosecurity and provided oversight and coordination of emergency preparedness strategies. Capacities for emergency response were strengthened by training key staff, developing a robust surveillance system, and setting up a Biosafety Level 3 laboratory and biobank. Resource provision, in terms of finances and trained personnel for emergencies was prioritized by the government. With the onset of COVID-19, Lagos state was able to respond promptly to the outbreak using the centralized Incident Command Structure and the key activities of the Emergency Operations Centre. Contributory to effective response were partnerships with the private sectors, community engagement and political commitment. CONCLUSION: Using the lessons learned from the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Lagos State had gradually prepared its healthcare system for a pandemic such as COVID-19. The State needs to continue to expand its preparedness to be more resilient and future proof to respond to disease outbreaks. Looking beyond intra-state gains, lessons and identified best practices from the past and present should be shared with other states and countries.

Psychosocial health effects of Covid-19 infection on persons in treatment centers in Lagos, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Prior research has highlighted the psychosocial impact of infectious diseases on individuals and the community at large. However, little is known about the psychosocial implications of COVID-19. This study set out to determine the rate as well as correlates of anxiety and depressive symptoms among persons managed as in-patients for COVID-19 in Lagos, Nigeria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted an online survey between April to June ending 2020 using a consecutive sampling technique of persons positive for COVID-19 and who were managed as in-patients across five (5) treatment centres in Lagos, Nigeria. The survey collected information on demographic as well as clinical data including suicidality. Anxiety and depressive symptoms were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: There were one hundred and sixty participants in total. The mean age of respondents was 36.4 (±9.7) years with a higher proportion (56.9%) being males. With regards to diagnosis, 28.1% and 27.5% of the respondents were categorised as probable cases of depression and anxiety respectively, while 3.8% respondents reported suicidal ideation. Majority of the respondents (61.9%) reported the fear of infecting their loved ones. The variables that showed association with psychiatric morbidity were a past history of an emotional concern, employment status, guilt about infecting others and boredom. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a high burden of psychological/psychiatric morbidity among persons treated for COVID-19, particularly persons who have had prior emotional concerns. The findings from this study reiterate the need to pay attention to the mental health of people during disease outbreaks and to incorporate psychosocial interventions as part of the management package.

Full autopsy in a confirmed COVID-19 patient in Lagos, Nigeria - A case report.

OBJECTIVES: To report the postmortem findings of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive individual who died in Lagos (Nigeria) in June 2020 and to investigate the cause, pathogenesis as well as pathological changes noticed during the examination. METHODS: Complete postmortem examination was performed according to standard procedures in a regular autopsy suite using personal protective equipment including N95 masks, goggles and disposable gowns. The diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing on postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs. RESULTS: A 47-year-old man with a medical history of well controlled hypertension and dyslipidaemia died after long hours of transportation for medical care in a hospital in Lagos. He tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on ante- and postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs. Autopsy revealed pneumonia with diffuse alveolar damage, disseminated intravascular coagulopathy and hypovolaemic shock. CONCLUSIONS: Autopsy can be performed on decedents who died from or with SARS-CoV-2 infection in a low resource environment such as ours. A standard autopsy room was used while deploying recommended infection prevention control and regular decontamination. The clinical details, autopsy findings such as diffuse alveolar damage and airway inflammation were consistent with a COVID-19 related pathology. While the decedent had 'controlled' co-morbidity, he succumbed to multi-organ failure occasioned by shock and disseminated intravascular coagulopathy.

'Long COVID': persistent COVID-19 symptoms in survivors managed in Lagos State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease once thought to be a respiratory infection is now recognised as a multi-system disease affecting the respiratory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, neurological, immune, and hematopoietic systems. An emerging body of evidence suggests the persistence of COVID-19 symptoms of varying patterns among some survivors. This study aimed to describe persistent symptoms in COVID-19 survivors and investigate possible risk factors for these persistent symptoms. METHODS: The study used a retrospective study design. The study population comprised of discharged COVID-19 patients. Demographic information, days since discharge, comorbidities, and persistent COVID-19 like symptoms were assessed in patients attending the COVID-19 outpatient clinic in Lagos State. Statistical analysis was done using STATA 15.0 software (StataCorp Texas) with significance placed at p-value < 0.05. RESULTS: A total of 274 patients were enrolled in the study. A majority were within the age group > 35 to ≤49 years (38.3%), and male (66.1%). More than one-third (40.9%) had persistent COVID-19 symptoms after discharge, and 19.7% had more than three persistent COVID-like symptoms. The most persistent COVID-like symptoms experienced were easy fatigability (12.8%), headaches (12.8%), and chest pain (9.8%). Symptomatic COVID-19 disease with moderate severity compared to mild severity was a predictor of persistent COVID-like symptoms after discharge (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Findings from this study suggests that patients who recovered from COVID-19 disease may still experience COVID-19 like symptoms, particularly fatigue and headaches. Therefore, careful monitoring should be in place after discharge to help mitigate the effects of these symptoms and improve the quality of life of COVID-19 survivors.

A national survey of public awareness of antimicrobial resistance in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: One of the objectives of the Global Action Plan by the World Health Organization (WHO) to contain antimicrobial resistance (AMR), is to improve global awareness through effective communication and education. Comprehensive information on the level of awareness of AMR among Nigerian public is deficient. This study was therefore designed to assess the current level of awareness and knowledge of the Nigerian public of AMR. METHODS: Pre-tested and validated questionnaire was used to obtain information from the general public across the six geopolitical zones (North Central, North East, North West, South East, South South and South West) in Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling was used to select one state from each zone and respondents were selected through a multi-stage sampling technique. Responses to eight questions were used to grade the level of knowledge categorized as poor, fair and good. Collation and analysis of data were performed at the Microbiology Department of the Nigerian Institute of Medical Research (NIMR), Lagos, Nigeria, using SPSS version 24.0. RESULTS: Questionnaires from 482 respondents comprising 242 (50.2%) females and 240 (49.8%) males from six states (Lagos, Ebonyi, Delta, Plateau, Borno and Jigawa) were analyzed. Of the 482 respondents, 322 (66.8%) had taken antibiotics in the last six months out of which 31.3% were without prescription. 26.1% of respondents believe they don't need to complete the dosage as long as they feel better. Although 272(56.5%) of the respondents were familiar with the term "antibiotic resistance", only 40(8.3%) had good knowledge of AMR. A majority (76.6%) believed that they were powerless to stop the spread of AMR. There was no association between the gender of respondents and knowledge of AMR (p = 0.13). However, respondents from Ebonyi and Delta states in southern Nigeria were more likely to have good knowledge of AMR (X2 = 53.22, P < 0.0001). The respondents in the urban area had a higher score for knowledge level compared to the rural dwellers, though this was not statistically significant within and across states. CONCLUSION: This survey provides an insight into the level of AMR awareness and antibiotic use in the wider Nigeria public. Our findings show that about a third of the general public consume antibiotics obtained without prescription. There is an overall poor understanding of antimicrobial resistance and/or proper use of antibiotics among respondents. It is critical that more holistic public enlightenment programs are carried out to increase awareness of AMR and promote responsible use of antibiotics.

Clinical presentation, case management and outcomes for the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Success in curtailing the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) depends largely on a sound understanding of the epidemiologic and clinical profile of cases in a population as well as the case management approach. This study documents the presenting characteristics, treatment modalities and outcomes of the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria. METHODS: This retrospective study used medical records of the first 32 patients admitted and discharged from the Mainland Hospital, Lagos State, southwest Nigeria between February 27 and April 6, 2020. The outcomes of interest were death, promptness of admission process and duration of hospitalization. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 38.1 years (SD: 15.5) and 66% were male. Three-quarters (75%) of the patients presented in moderately severe condition while 16% were asymptomatic. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (59%) and dry cough (44%). The mean time between a positive test result and admission was 1.63 days (SD: 1.31). Almost all (97%) the patients were treated with lopinavir-ritonavir with no recorded death. The median duration of hospital stay was 12 days (IQR: 9-13.5). CONCLUSION: In this preliminary analysis of the first COVID-19 cases in Nigeria, clinical presentation was mild to moderate with no mortality. Processes to improve promptness of admission and reduce hospital stay are required to enhance the response to COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Lassa virus RNA detection from suspected cases in Nigeria, 2011-2017.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of Lassa fever is crucial to confirm cases, as well as to control/prevent nosocomial and community-based transmission and initiation of treatment, which is still limited in the country. Thus, we aimed at providing some information on the laboratory detection of Lassa from suspected cases in Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of seasonal Lassa fever outbreaks data from 1,263 samples analyzed using Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) at the Virology Research Laboratory, College of Medicine, University of Lagos/Lagos University Teaching Hospital between year 2011 and 2017. Data were analyzed using the 21st edition of SPSS statistical software (2015). RESULTS: The RT-PCR test confirmed the presence of Lassa in 112 (8.9%) comprising 61 (54.4%) males, 48 (42.9%) females and 3 (2.7%) individuals without gender information. Those aged between 18 and 49 years were mostly affected. There was a decline in the detection of Lassa from 4.7% in 2011/2012 to less than 1% by the 2014/2015. However, during the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 seasons the detection rates increased to 10.4% and 15.1% respectively. The Northern region of Nigeria reported high confirmed cases of Lassa. The South Western region also witnessed an increased Lassa fever positivity rate of 13.4% of which Lagos and Ogun states being the focal state of Lassa activity in the region. CONCLUSION: These established the need for heightening the continued surveillance for Lassa as well as the establishment of other testing facilities within these endemic regions for prompt diagnosis of Lassa fever.

Clinical profile and containment of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in two large West African cities, Nigeria, July-September 2014.

INTRODUCTION: The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Nigeria began when an infected diplomat from Liberia arrived in Lagos, the most populous city in Africa, with subsequent transmission to another large city. METHODS: First-, second-, and third-generation contacts were traced, monitored, and classified. Symptomatic contacts were managed at Ebola treatment centers as suspected, probable, and confirmed EVD cases using standard operating procedures adapted from the World Health Organization EVD guidelines. Reverse transcription PCR tests confirmed EVD. Socio-demographic, clinical, hospitalization, and outcome data of the July-September 2014 Nigeria EVD cohort were analyzed. RESULTS: The median age of the 20 EVD cases was 33 years (interquartile range 26-62 years). More females (55%), health workers (65%), and persons <40 years old (60%) were infected than males, non-health workers, and persons aged ≥40 years. No EVD case management worker contracted the disease. Presenting symptoms were fever (85%), fatigue (70%), and diarrhea (65%). Clinical syndromes were gastroenteritis (45%), hemorrhage (30%), and encephalopathy (15%). The case-fatality rate was 40% and there was one mental health complication. The average duration from symptom onset to presentation was 3±2 days among survivors and 5±2 days for non-survivors. The mean duration from symptom onset to discharge was 15±5 days for survivors and 11±2 days for non-survivors. Mortality was higher in the older age group, males, and those presenting late. CONCLUSION: The EVD outbreak in Nigeria was characterized by the severe febrile gastroenteritis syndrome typical of the West African outbreak, better outcomes, rapid containment, and no infection among EVD care-providers. Early case detection, an effective incident management system, and prompt case management with on-site mobilization and training of local professionals were key to the outcome.

Biosafety level-2 laboratory diagnosis of Zaire Ebola virus disease imported from Liberia to Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Global travel is an efficient route of transmission for highly infectious pathogens and increases the chances of such pathogens moving from high disease-endemic areas to new regions. We describe the rapid and safe identification of the first imported case of Ebola virus disease in a traveler to Lagos, Nigeria, using conventional reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in a biosafety level (BSL)-2 facility. CASE PRESENTATION: On 20 July 2014, a traveler arrived from Liberia at Lagos International Airport and was admitted to a private hospital in Lagos, with clinical suspicion of Ebola virus disease. METHODOLOGY AND OUTCOME: Blood and urine specimens were collected, transported to the Virology Unit Laboratory at the College of Medicine, University of Lagos, and processed under stringent biosafety conditions for viral RNA extraction. RT-PCR was set-up to query the Ebola, Lassa and Dengue fever viruses. Amplicons for pan-filoviruses were detected as 300 bp bands on a 1.5% agarose gel image; there were no detectable bands for Lassa and Dengue viral RNA. Nucleotide BLAST and phylogenetic analysis of sequence data of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (L) gene confirmed the sequence to be Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV/Hsap/NGA/2014/LIB-NIG 01072014; Genbank: KM251803.1). CONCLUSION: Our BSL-2 facility in Lagos, Nigeria, was able to safely detect Ebola virus disease using molecular techniques, supporting the reliability of molecular detection of highly infectious viral pathogens under stringent safety guidelines in BSL-2 laboratories. This is a significant lesson for the many under-facilitated laboratories in resource-limited settings, as is predominantly found in sub-Saharan Africa.

An evaluation of psychological distress and social support of survivors and contacts of Ebola virus disease infection and their relatives in Lagos, Nigeria: a cross sectional study--2014.

BACKGROUND: By September 2014, an outbreak of Ebola Viral Disease (EVD) in West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal and Nigeria, had recorded over 4500 and 2200 probable or confirmed cases and deaths respectively. EVD, an emerging infectious disease, can create fear and panic among patients, contacts and relatives, which could be a risk factor for psychological distress. Psychological distress among this subgroup could have public health implication for control of EVD, because of potential effects on patient management and contact tracing. We determined the Prevalence, pattern and factors associated with psychological distress among survivors and contacts of EVD and their relatives. METHODS: In a descriptive cross sectional study, we used General Health Questionnaire to assess psychological distress and Oslo Social Support Scale to assess social support among 117 participants who survived EVD, listed as EVD contacts or their relatives at Ebola Emergency Operation Center in Lagos, Nigeria. Factors associated with psychological distress were determined using chi square/odds ratio and adjusted odds ratio. RESULTS: The mean age and standard deviation of participants was 34 +/ - 9.6 years. Of 117 participants, 78 (66.7%) were females, 77 (65.8%) had a tertiary education and 45 (38.5%) were health workers. Most frequently occurring psychological distress were inability to concentrate (37.6%) and loss of sleep over worry (33.3%). Losing a relation to EVD outbreak (OR = 6.0, 95% CI, 1.2-32.9) was significantly associated with feeling unhappy or depressed while being a health worker was protective (OR = 0.4, 95% CI, 0.2-0.9). Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) showed losing a relation (AOR = 5.7, 95% CI, 1.2-28.0) was a predictor of "feeling unhappy or depressed", loss of a relation (AOR = 10.1, 95% CI, 1.7-60.7) was a predictor of inability to concentrate. CONCLUSIONS: Survivors and contacts of EVD and their relations develop psychological distress. Development of psychological distress could be predicted by loss of family member. It is recommended that psychiatrists and other mental health specialists be part of case management teams. The clinical teams managing EVD patients should be trained on recognition of common psychological distress among patients. A mental health specialist should review contacts being monitored for EVD for psychological distress or disorders.

Sociodemographic correlates of modifiable risk factors for hypertension in a rural local government area of oyo state South west Nigeria.

Modifiable risk factors of hypertension contribute significantly to all-cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. The study aimed to determine the prevalence of and the association of modifiable risk factors with hypertension in rural community. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 166 male and 201 female adults of 18 years and above using cluster sampling technique. Data were collected using modified WHO STEPS instrument and hypertensive subjects were defined as those with systolic greater than or equal to 140 and diastolic of 90 mmHg. Data were analyzed with SPSS version 17 with level of significance at P < 0.05. The mean age of the subjects was 36.36 (±16.88) years and mean systolic and diastolic pressures were 124 (±16.93) and 76.32 (±11.85) mmHg, respectively. The prevalence of hypertension was high (22.9%) in this rural communities but awareness was low, 10.71%. The prevalence of alcohol consumption, sedentary lifestyle, abnormal weight, inadequate sleep, smoking, significant stress, and female use of hormonal contraceptives was 149 (40.6%), 91 (24.8%), 88 (24.0%), 122 (33.2%), 14 (3.8%), 65 (17.7%), and 53 (26.5%), respectively. Overweight, sex, inadequate sleep, and stress were established as positive predictors of hypertension. The rising prevalence of hypertension and its modifiable risk factors in rural communities require prompt interventions directed at reversing these trends.