Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.

Introduction: To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which HIV viraemia is concentrating. Methods: We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013-2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, one-year age bands and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia concentrates. Results: Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 and men aged 30-34 were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or had already achieved 95-95-95 targets. Conclusions: The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.

Increasing intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity despite declining HIV incidence in Uganda.

HIV incidence has been declining in Africa with scale-up of HIV interventions. However, there is limited data on HIV evolutionary trends in African populations with waning epidemics. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a twenty-five-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from persons living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994 to 2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011 to 2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was estimated using the Shannon diversity index and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral sub-groups, including by migration status. 9,931 HIV sequences were available from 4,999 PLHIV, including 3,060 and 1,939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (p<0.001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (p<0.001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by more than four-fold. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While p24 intra-subtype genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, diversity and divergence of gp41 increased through 2017. Inter- and intra-subtype viral diversity increased across all population sub-groups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics in declining African HIV epidemics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but new infections continue to appear. The design of effective prevention strategies requires the demographic characterisation of individuals acting as sources of infection, which is the aim of this study. METHODS: Between 2014 and 2018, the HPTN 071 PopART study was conducted to quantify the public health benefits of ART. Viral samples from 7124 study participants in Zambia were deep-sequenced as part of HPTN 071-02 PopART Phylogenetics, an ancillary study. We used these sequences to identify likely transmission pairs. After demographic weighting of the recipients in these pairs to match the overall HIV-positive population, we analysed the demographic characteristics of the sources to better understand transmission in the general population. FINDINGS: We identified a total of 300 likely transmission pairs. 178 (59·4%) were male to female, with 130 (95% CI 110-150; 43·3%) from males aged 25-40 years. Overall, men transmitted 2·09-fold (2·06-2·29) more infections per capita than women, a ratio peaking at 5·87 (2·78-15·8) in the 35-39 years source age group. 40 (26-57; 13·2%) transmissions linked individuals from different communities in the trial. Of 288 sources with recorded information on drug resistance mutations, 52 (38-69; 18·1%) carried viruses resistant to first-line ART. INTERPRETATION: HIV-1 transmission in the HPTN 071 study communities comes from a wide range of age and sex groups, and there is no outsized contribution to new infections from importation or drug resistance mutations. Men aged 25-39 years, underserved by current treatment and prevention services, should be prioritised for HIV testing and ART. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Digital measurement of SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from 7 million contacts.

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.

Public health use of HIV phylogenetic data in sub-Saharan Africa: ethical issues.

Phylogenetic analyses of HIV are an increasingly accurate method of clarifying population-level patterns of transmission and linking individuals or groups with transmission events. Viral genetic data may be used by public health agencies to guide policy interventions focused on clusters of transmission or segments of the population in which transmission is concentrated. Analyses of HIV phylogenetics in high-income countries have often found that clusters of transmission play a significant role in HIV epidemics. In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV phylogenetic analyses to date suggest that clusters of transmission play a relatively minor role in local epidemics. Such analyses could nevertheless be used to guide priority setting and HIV public health programme design in Africa for sub-populations in which transmission events are more concentrated. Phylogenetic analysis raises ethical issues, in part due to the range of potential benefits and potential harms (ie, risks). Potential benefits include (1) improving knowledge of transmission patterns, (2) informing the design of focused public health interventions for subpopulations in which transmission is concentrated, (3) identifying and responding to clusters of transmission, (4) reducing stigma (in some cases) and (5) informing estimates of the (cost-)effectiveness of HIV treatment programmes. Potential harms include (1) privacy infringements, (2) increasing stigma (in some cases), (3) reducing trust in public health programmes, and (4) increased prosecution of legal cases where HIV transmission, homosexuality or sex work is criminalised. This paper provides analysis of relevant issues with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa in order to inform consultations regarding ethical best practice for HIV phylogenetics.

Limited emergence of resistance to integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) in ART-experienced participants failing dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy: a cross-sectional analysis of a Northeast Nigerian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Due to the high prevalence of resistance to NNRTI-based ART since 2018, consolidated recommendations from the WHO have indicated dolutegravir as the preferred drug of choice for HIV treatment globally. There is a paucity of resistance outcome data from HIV-1 non-B subtypes circulating across West Africa. AIMS: We characterized the mutational profiles of persons living with HIV from a cross-sectional cohort in North-East Nigeria failing a dolutegravir-based ART regimen. METHODS: WGS of plasma samples collected from 61 HIV-1-infected participants following virological failure of dolutegravir-based ART were sequenced using the Illumina platform. Sequencing was successfully completed for samples from 55 participants. Following quality control, 33 full genomes were analysed from participants with a median age of 40 years and median time on ART of 9 years. HIV-1 subtyping was performed using SNAPPy. RESULTS: Most participants had mutational profiles reflective of exposure to previous first- and second-line ART regimens comprised NRTIs and NNRTIs. More than half of participants had one or more drug resistance-associated mutations (DRMs) affecting susceptibility to NRTIs (17/33; 52%) and NNRTIs (24/33; 73%). Almost a quarter of participants (8/33; 24.4%) had one or more DRMs affecting tenofovir susceptibility. Only one participant, infected with HIV-1 subtype G, had evidence of DRMs affecting dolutegravir susceptibility-this was characterized by the T66A, G118R, E138K and R263K mutations. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a low prevalence of resistance to dolutegravir; the data are therefore supportive of the continual rollout of dolutegravir as the primary first-line regimen for ART-naive participants and the preferred switch to second-line ART across the region. However, population-level, longer-term data collection on dolutegravir outcomes are required to further guide implementation and policy action across the region.

Prolidase Deficiency Causes Spontaneous T Cell Activation and Lupus-like Autoimmunity.

Prolidase deficiency (PD) is a multisystem disorder caused by mutations in the PEPD gene, which encodes a ubiquitously expressed metallopeptidase essential for the hydrolysis of dipeptides containing C-terminal proline or hydroxyproline. PD typically presents in childhood with developmental delay, skin ulcers, recurrent infections, and, in some patients, autoimmune features that can mimic systemic lupus erythematosus. The basis for the autoimmune association is uncertain, but might be due to self-antigen exposure with tissue damage, or indirectly driven by chronic infection and microbial burden. In this study, we address the question of causation and show that Pepd-null mice have increased antinuclear autoantibodies and raised serum IgA, accompanied by kidney immune complex deposition, consistent with a systemic lupus erythematosus-like disease. These features are associated with an accumulation of CD4 and CD8 effector T cells in the spleen and liver. Pepd deficiency leads to spontaneous T cell activation and proliferation into the effector subset, which is cell intrinsic and independent of Ag receptor specificity or antigenic stimulation. However, an increase in KLRG1+ effector CD8 cells is not observed in mixed chimeras, in which the autoimmune phenotype is also absent. Our findings link autoimmune susceptibility in PD to spontaneous T cell dysfunction, likely to be acting in combination with immune activators that lie outside the hemopoietic system but result from the abnormal metabolism or loss of nonenzymatic prolidase function. This knowledge provides insight into the role of prolidase in the maintenance of self-tolerance and highlights the importance of treatment to control T cell activation.

Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. METHODS: In this modelling study, we fitted an individual-based model to the HIV epidemic and HIV care cascade in 21 high prevalence communities in Zambia and South Africa that were part of the PopART cluster-randomised trial (intervention period Nov 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2017). The model represents coverage of home-based testing and counselling by age and sex, delivered as part of the trial, antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake, and any changes in national guidelines on ART eligibility. In PopART, communities were randomly assigned to one of three arms: arm A received the full PopART intervention for all individuals who tested positive for HIV, arm B received the intervention with ART provided in accordance with national guidelines, and arm C received standard of care. We fitted the model to trial data twice using Approximate Bayesian Computation, once before data unblinding and then again after data unblinding. We compared projections of intervention impact with observed effects, and for four different scenarios of UTT up to Jan 1, 2030 in the study communities. FINDINGS: Compared with standard of care, a 51% (95% credible interval 40-60) reduction in HIV incidence is projected if the trial intervention (arms A and B combined) is continued from 2020 to 2030, over and above a declining trend in HIV incidence under standard of care. INTERPRETATION: A widespread and continued commitment to UTT via home-based testing and counselling can have a substantial effect on HIV incidence in high prevalence communities. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020, with the sweep occurring at different times in each region. This period coincided with a large number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control the epidemic, making it difficult to estimate the relative transmissibility of variants. In this paper, we model the spatial spread of these variants in England using a meta-population agent-based model which correctly characterizes the regional variation in cases and distribution of variants. As a test of robustness, we additionally estimated the relative transmissibility of multiple variants using a statistical model based on the renewal equation, which simultaneously estimates the effective reproduction number R. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12-1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65-1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k-38 k) deaths could have been prevented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands.

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log10 increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

OpenABM-Covid19-An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing, and vaccination programmes. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.

The epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 app.

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the emergence of digital contact tracing to help to prevent the spread of the disease. A mobile phone app records proximity events between app users, and when a user tests positive for COVID-19, their recent contacts can be notified instantly. Theoretical evidence has supported this new public health intervention1-6, but its epidemiological impact has remained uncertain7. Here we investigate the impact of the National Health Service (NHS) COVID-19 app for England and Wales, from its launch on 24 September 2020 to the end of December 2020. It was used regularly by approximately 16.5 million users (28% of the total population), and sent approximately 1.7 million exposure notifications: 4.2 per index case consenting to contact tracing. We estimated that the fraction of individuals notified by the app who subsequently showed symptoms and tested positive (the secondary attack rate (SAR)) was 6%, similar to the SAR for manually traced close contacts. We estimated the number of cases averted by the app using two complementary approaches: modelling based on the notifications and SAR gave an estimate of 284,000 (central 95% range of sensitivity analyses 108,000-450,000), and statistical comparison of matched neighbouring local authorities gave an estimate of 594,000 (95% confidence interval 317,000-914,000). Approximately one case was averted for each case consenting to notification of their contacts. We estimated that for every percentage point increase in app uptake, the number of cases could be reduced by 0.8% (using modelling) or 2.3% (using statistical analysis). These findings support the continued development and deployment of such apps in populations that are awaiting full protection from vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity and transmission.

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have enabled researchers to monitor its spread and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission, we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the United Kingdom. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high and by a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost or occasionally fixed at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity, patterns that are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to arise infrequently but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.

Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state.

Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple and Google's Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties to explore how digital exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, and mobility scenarios. In a model with 15% participation, we found that exposure notification could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6% and could effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe this can provide health authorities in Washington state and beyond with guidance on how exposure notification can complement traditional interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis.

Background: In May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preliminary assessment of the epidemiological impact of the Test and Trace programme using publicly available data. Methods: We used COVID-19 daily case data from Public Health England to infer incidence of new infections and estimate the reproduction number (R) for each of the 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England and nationally, before and after the launch of the Test and Trace programme on the Isle of Wight. We used Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate R and compared the Isle of Wight with other UTLAs using a synthetic control method. Findings: We observed significant decreases in incidence and R on the Isle of Wight immediately after the launch of the Test and Trace programme. The Isle of Wight had a marked reduction in R, from 1·3 before the Test and Trace programme to 0·5 after by one of our measures, and went from having the third highest R before the Test and Trace programme, to the twelfth lowest afterwards compared with other UTLAs. Interpretation: Our results show that the epidemic on the Isle of Wight was controlled quickly and effectively after the launch of Test and Trace. Our findings highlight the need for further research to determine the causes of the reduction in the spread of the disease, as these could be translated into local and national non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the period before a treatment or vaccination for COVID-19 becomes available. Funding: Li Ka Shing Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.

A Comprehensive Genomics Solution for HIV Surveillance and Clinical Monitoring in Low-Income Settings.

Viral genetic sequencing can be used to monitor the spread of HIV drug resistance, identify appropriate antiretroviral regimes, and characterize transmission dynamics. Despite decreasing costs, next-generation sequencing (NGS) is still prohibitively costly for routine use in generalized HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we present veSEQ-HIV, a high-throughput, cost-effective NGS sequencing method and computational pipeline tailored specifically to HIV, which can be performed using leftover blood drawn for routine CD4 cell count testing. This method overcomes several major technical challenges that have prevented HIV sequencing from being used routinely in public health efforts; it is fast, robust, and cost-efficient, and generates full genomic sequences of diverse strains of HIV without bias. The complete veSEQ-HIV pipeline provides viral load estimates and quantitative summaries of drug resistance mutations; it also exploits information on within-host viral diversity to construct directed transmission networks. We evaluated the method's performance using 1,620 plasma samples collected from individuals attending 10 large urban clinics in Zambia as part of the HPTN 071-2 study (PopART Phylogenetics). Whole HIV genomes were recovered from 91% of samples with a viral load of >1,000 copies/ml. The cost of the assay (30 GBP per sample) compares favorably with existing VL and HIV genotyping tests, proving an affordable option for combining HIV clinical monitoring with molecular epidemiology and drug resistance surveillance in low-income settings.

Ethics of instantaneous contact tracing using mobile phone apps in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In this paper we discuss ethical implications of the use of mobile phone apps in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact tracing is a well-established feature of public health practice during infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics. However, the high proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission in COVID-19 means that standard contact tracing methods are too slow to stop the progression of infection through the population. To address this problem, many countries around the world have deployed or are developing mobile phone apps capable of supporting instantaneous contact tracing. Informed by the on-going mapping of 'proximity events' these apps are intended both to inform public health policy and to provide alerts to individuals who have been in contact with a person with the infection. The proposed use of mobile phone data for 'intelligent physical distancing' in such contexts raises a number of important ethical questions. In our paper, we outline some ethical considerations that need to be addressed in any deployment of this kind of approach as part of a multidimensional public health response. We also, briefly, explore the implications for its use in future infectious disease outbreaks.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing.

The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines ("lockdowns") that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.