Update of the risk assessment of inorganic arsenic in food.

The European Commission asked EFSA to update its 2009 risk assessment on arsenic in food carrying out a hazard assessment of inorganic arsenic (iAs) and using the revised exposure assessment issued by EFSA in 2021. Epidemiological studies show that the chronic intake of iAs via diet and/or drinking water is associated with increased risk of several adverse outcomes including cancers of the skin, bladder and lung. The CONTAM Panel used the benchmark dose lower confidence limit based on a benchmark response (BMR) of 5% (relative increase of the background incidence after adjustment for confounders, BMDL05) of 0.06 µg iAs/kg bw per day obtained from a study on skin cancer as a Reference Point (RP). Inorganic As is a genotoxic carcinogen with additional epigenetic effects and the CONTAM Panel applied a margin of exposure (MOE) approach for the risk characterisation. In adults, the MOEs are low (range between 2 and 0.4 for mean consumers and between 0.9 and 0.2 at the 95th percentile exposure, respectively) and as such raise a health concern despite the uncertainties.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2022.

This report presents the epidemiological analysis of African swine fever (ASF) during 2022 based on the surveillance and pig population data submitted by the European Union (EU) affected countries and one neighbouring country. Coinciding with regulatory changes and an important decrease in ASF outbreaks in 2022 in the EU, the number of domestic pig samples tested as part of active surveillance decreased by 80%, while the number of samples from passive surveillance almost doubled compared with 2021. Most outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU were detected by testing clinical suspicions (93% of outbreaks), followed by tracing activities (5%) and weekly testing of the first two dead pigs per establishment (2%). Although most of the wild boar samples came from hunted animals, the probability of detecting PCR-positive animals was much higher in wild boar found dead. The ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU decreased by 79% while a decrease of 40% in the wild boar cases was observed in comparison with 2021. This was strongly marked in Romania, Poland and Bulgaria, with a reduction of 50-80% compared with 2021. In many countries, an important decrease in the number of pig establishments was observed, especially of small establishments with fewer than 100 pigs. The regional between farm incidence and proportion of pigs lost due to ASF in the EU was in general very low (average of 1%) apart from some regions in Romania. The impact of ASF on wild boar populations was variable, with a decline in wild boar abundance observed in certain countries versus a stable or even increased population after ASF introduction. This supports the negative relationship observed in this report between the proportion of the country with restricted zones due to ASF in wild boar and wild boar hunting bags.

Technical specifications for a baseline survey on the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in pigs.

The European Commission requested scientific and technical assistance in the preparation of a EU-wide baseline survey protocol for a European Union (EU) coordinated monitoring programme on the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) in pigs. The objective of the survey is to estimate the MRSA prevalence in batches of fattening pigs at slaughter at both European and national levels, with a 95% level of confidence and a level of precision of 10% considering an expected prevalence of 50%. The survey protocol defines the target population, the sample size for the survey, sample collection requirements, the analytical methods (for isolation, identification, phenotypic susceptibility testing and further genotypic testing of MRSA isolates), the data reporting requirements and the plan of analysis. The samples are to be analysed according to the laboratory protocols available on the European Union Reference Laboratory (EURL-AR) website. Generalised linear models will be used to estimate proportion (with 95% confidence intervals) of batches of slaughter pigs tested positive to MRSA. The necessary data to be reported by the EU Member States to support this baseline survey are presented in three data models. The results of the survey should be reported using the EFSA data collection framework.

Guidance on the use of the benchmark dose approach in risk assessment.

The Scientific Committee (SC) reconfirms that the benchmark dose (BMD) approach is a scientifically more advanced method compared to the no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) approach for deriving a Reference Point (RP). The major change compared to the previous Guidance (EFSA SC, 2017) concerns the Section 2.5, in which a change from the frequentist to the Bayesian paradigm is recommended. In the former, uncertainty about the unknown parameters is measured by confidence and significance levels, interpreted and calibrated under hypothetical repetition, while probability distributions are attached to the unknown parameters in the Bayesian approach, and the notion of probability is extended to reflect uncertainty of knowledge. In addition, the Bayesian approach can mimic a learning process and reflects the accumulation of knowledge over time. Model averaging is again recommended as the preferred method for estimating the BMD and calculating its credible interval. The set of default models to be used for BMD analysis has been reviewed and amended so that there is now a single set of models for quantal and continuous data. The flow chart guiding the reader step-by-step when performing a BMD analysis has also been updated, and a chapter comparing the frequentist to the Bayesian paradigm inserted. Also, when using Bayesian BMD modelling, the lower bound (BMDL) is to be considered as potential RP, and the upper bound (BMDU) is needed for establishing the BMDU/BMDL ratio reflecting the uncertainty in the BMD estimate. This updated guidance does not call for a general re-evaluation of previous assessments where the NOAEL approach or the BMD approach as described in the 2009 or 2017 Guidance was used, in particular when the exposure is clearly lower (e.g. more than one order of magnitude) than the health-based guidance value. Finally, the SC firmly reiterates to reconsider test guidelines given the wide application of the BMD approach.

Conversion of calcium-l-methylfolate and (6S)-5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid glucosamine salt into dietary folate equivalents.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA) was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the conversion of calcium-l-methylfolate and (6S)-5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid glucosamine salt (collectively called 5-MTHF hereafter) into dietary folate equivalents (DFE). Following a systematic review, the conclusions of the opinion are based on one intervention study in adults for intakes < 400 µg/day and three intervention studies in adults for intakes ≥ 400 µg/day. At intakes below 400 µg/day, folic acid (FA) is assumed to be linearly related to responses of biomarkers of intake and status and is an appropriate comparator for deriving a DFE conversion factor for 5-MTHF. It is proposed to use the same factor as for folic acid for conversion of 5-MTHF into DFE for intakes < 400 µg/day. As such intake levels are unlikely to be exceeded through fortified food consumption, the conversion factor of 1.7 relative to natural food folate (NF) could be applied to 5-MTHF added to foods and to food supplements providing < 400 µg/day. At 400 µg/day, 5-MTHF was found to be more bioavailable than folic acid and a conversion factor of 2 is proposed for this intake level and for higher intakes. The derived DFE equations are DFE = NF + 1.7 × FA + 1.7 × 5-MTHF for fortified foods and food supplements providing intakes < 400 µg/day; and DFE = NF + 1.7 × FA + 2.0 × 5-MTHF for food supplements providing intakes ≥ 400 µg/day. Although this assessment applies to calcium-L-methylfolate and 5-MTHF glucosamine salt, it is considered that the influence of the cation on bioavailability is likely to be within the margin of error of the proposed DFE equations. Therefore, the proposed equations can also be applied to 5-MTHF associated with other cations.

Evaluation of the shucking of certain species of scallops contaminated with domoic acid with a view to the production of edible parts meeting the safety requirements foreseen in the Union legislation.

EFSA was asked by the European Commission to provide information on the levels of domoic acid (DA) in whole scallops that would ensure that levels in edible parts are below the regulatory limit after shucking. This should include five species of scallops. In addition, EFSA was asked to recommend the number of scallops to be used in an analytical sample. To address these questions, EFSA received suitable data on DA for only one scallop species, Pecten maximus, i.e. data on pooled samples of edible and non-edible parts. A large part of the concentration levels was above the limit of quantification (LOQ) and only these data were used for the assessment. Shucking in most cases resulted in a strong decrease in the toxin levels. Statistical analysis of the data showed that levels in whole scallops should not exceed 24 mg DA/kg, 59 mg DA/kg and 127 mg DA/kg to ensure that levels in, respectively, gonads, muscle and muscle plus gonads are below the regulatory limit of 20 mg DA/kg with 99% certainty. Such an analysis was not possible for the other scallop species. In the absence of data from member states, published data of variations between scallops were used to calculate the sample size to ensure a 95% correct prediction on whether the level in scallops in an area or lot is correctly predicted to be compliant/non-compliant. It was shown that 10 scallops per sample would be sufficient to predict with 95% certainty if DA levels in the area/lot were twofold below or above the regulatory limit for the highest reported coefficient of variance (CV) of 1.06. To predict with 95% certainty for levels between 15 and 27 mg DA/kg, a pooled sample of more than 30 scallops would have to be tested.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures.

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

Evaluation of the shucking of certain species of scallops contaminated with lipophilic toxins with a view to the production of edible parts meeting the safety requirements foreseen in the Union legislation.

EFSA was asked by the European Commission to provide information on levels of lipophilic shellfish toxins in whole scallops that would ensure levels in edible parts below the regulatory limits after shucking, i.e. removal of non-edible parts. This should include the okadaic acid (OA), the azaspiracid (AZA) and the yessotoxin (YTX) groups, and five species of scallops. In addition, EFSA was asked to recommend the number of scallops in an analytical sample. To address these questions, EFSA received suitable data on the three toxin groups in two scallop species, Aequipecten opercularis and Pecten maximus, i.e. data on individual and pooled samples of edible and non-edible parts from contamination incidents. The majority of the concentration levels were below limit of quantification (LOQ)/limit of detection (LOD), especially in adductor muscle but also in gonads. Shucking in most cases resulted in a strong decrease in the toxin levels. For Pecten maximus, statistical analysis showed that levels in whole scallops should not exceed 256 µg OA eq/kg or 217 µg AZA1 eq/kg to ensure that levels in gonads are below the regulatory limits of 160 µg OA or AZA1 eq/kg with 99% certainty. Such an analysis was not possible for yessotoxins or any toxin in Aequipecten opercularis and an assessment could only be based on upper bound levels. To ensure a 95% correct prediction on whether the level in scallops in an area or lot is correctly predicted to be compliant/non-compliant, it was shown that 10 scallops per sample would be sufficient to predict with 95% certainty if levels of OA-group toxins in the area/lot were 25% below or above the regulatory limit. However, to predict with a 95% certainty for levels between 140 and 180 µg OA eq/kg, a pooled sample of more than 30 scallops would have to be tested.

Rift Valley Fever - assessment of effectiveness of surveillance and control measures in the EU.

Effectiveness of surveillance and control measures against Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Mayotte (overseas France) and in continental EU were assessed using mathematical models. Surveillance for early detection of RVF virus circulation implies very low design prevalence values and thus sampling a high number of animals, so feasibility issues may rise. Passive surveillance based on notified abortions in ruminants is key for early warning and at present the only feasible surveillance option. The assessment of vaccination and culling against RVF in Mayotte suggests that vaccination is more effective when quickly implemented throughout the population, e.g. at a rate of 200 or 2,000 animals vaccinated per day. Test and cull is not an option for RVF control in Mayotte given the high number of animals that would need to be tested. If the risk of RVFV introduction into the continental EU increases, ruminant establishments close to possible points of disease incursion should be included in the surveillance. An enhanced surveillance on reproductive disorders should be applied during summer in risk areas. Serosurveillance targets of 0.3% animals should be at least considered. RVF control measures possibly applied in the continental EU have been assessed in the Netherlands, as an example. Culling animals on farms within a 20 km radius of detected farms appears as the most effective measure to control RVF spread, although too many animals should be culled. Alternative measures are vaccination in a 50 km radius around detection, ring vaccination between 20 and 50 km and culling of detected farms. The assessment of zoning showed that, following RVFV introduction and considering an R0 = 2, a mean vector dispersal of 10 km and 10 farms initially detected, RVFV would spread beyond a radius of up to 100 km or 50 km from the infected area with 10% or 55% probability, respectively.

Rift Valley Fever - epidemiological update and risk of introduction into Europe.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by a broad spectrum of mosquito species, especially Aedes and Culex genus, to animals (domestic and wild ruminants and camels) and humans. Rift Valley fever is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula, with periodic epidemics characterised by 5-15 years of inter-epizootic periods. In the last two decades, RVF was notified in new African regions (e.g. Sahel), RVF epidemics occurred more frequently and low-level enzootic virus circulation has been demonstrated in livestock in various areas. Recent outbreaks in a French overseas department and some seropositive cases detected in Turkey, Tunisia and Libya raised the attention of the EU for a possible incursion into neighbouring countries. The movement of live animals is the most important pathway for RVF spread from the African endemic areas to North Africa and the Middle East. The movement of infected animals and infected vectors when shipped by flights, containers or road transport is considered as other plausible pathways of introduction into Europe. The overall risk of introduction of RVF into EU through the movement of infected animals is very low in all the EU regions and in all MSs (less than one epidemic every 500 years), given the strict EU animal import policy. The same level of risk of introduction in all the EU regions was estimated also considering the movement of infected vectors, with the highest level for Belgium, Greece, Malta, the Netherlands (one epidemic every 228-700 years), mainly linked to the number of connections by air and sea transports with African RVF infected countries. Although the EU territory does not seem to be directly exposed to an imminent risk of RVFV introduction, the risk of further spread into countries neighbouring the EU and the risks of possible introduction of infected vectors, suggest that EU authorities need to strengthen their surveillance and response capacities, as well as the collaboration with North African and Middle Eastern countries.

An extended and unified modeling framework for benchmark dose estimation for both continuous and binary data.

Protection and safety authorities recommend the use of model averaging to determine the benchmark dose approach as a scientifically more advanced method compared with the no-observed-adverse-effect-level approach for obtaining a reference point and deriving health-based guidance values. Model averaging however highly depends on the set of candidate dose-response models and such a set should be rich enough to ensure that a well-fitting model is included. The currently applied set of candidate models for continuous endpoints is typically limited to two models, the exponential and Hill model, and differs completely from the richer set of candidate models currently used for binary endpoints. The objective of this article is to propose a general and wide framework of dose response models, which can be applied both to continuous and binary endpoints and covers the current models for both type of endpoints. In combination with the bootstrap, this framework offers a unified approach to benchmark dose estimation. The methodology is illustrated using two data sets, one with a continuous and another with a binary endpoint.

Neethling vaccine proved highly effective in controlling lumpy skin disease epidemics in the Balkans.

Despite the wide use of the live attenuated Neethling lumpy skin disease (LSD) vaccine, only limited data existed on its efficacy and effectiveness prior to the large LSD epidemic in the Balkans, which took place during 2016-2017. In addition, analysis of risk factors for the disease was hardly performed with proper control for vaccination effects and potential differences in exposure to the virus. Data from the LSD epidemics in six Balkan countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) and Albania) affected during 2016 were analyzed to determine vaccine effectiveness (VE) and risk factors for LSD infection at the farm level. Vaccination was performed along the occurrence of the epidemics and thus vaccination status of some of the farms changed during the epidemic. To allow for this, left truncated and right censored survival analysis was used in a mixed effects Cox proportional hazard regression model to calculate VE and risk factors for LSD. The results indicated of an average VE of 79.8% (95% CI: 73.2-84.7)) in the six countries, with the lowest VE of 62.5% documented in Albania and up to VE of more than 97% as documented in Bulgaria and Serbia. Analysis of time from vaccination to development of protective immunity showed that VE mostly developed during the first 14 days after vaccination. Data from Greece showed that the vaccination adjusted hazard ratio for LSD was 5.7 higher in grazing farms compared to non-grazing farms. However, due to a difference in geographical location of grazing and non-grazing farms and higher vaccination rate in non-grazing farms, this effect can be at least partly attributed to indirect protection due to herd immunity provided by surrounding vaccinated farms.

Trace element fingerprinting of blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) shells and soft tissues successfully reveals harvesting locations.

Globally, aquaculture products are expected to account for >60% of total seafood produce by 2030. In the European Union, the seafood sector is of considerable economic importance to member states with household spending on seafood produce totalling €54.8 billion in 2016. Within the EU, shellfish aquaculture supports livelihoods and employment in many rural communities throughout the region. Harmful algal blooms pose considerable risk to consumer safety and in turn, stability of the shellfish market. If contaminated produce was to make it to the market the health risk to the public could be considerable, but the damage to the sector through loss of trust in producers would also be significant. Mytilus edulis account for a considerable portion of the aquaculture sector in the Northeast Atlantic. At present, no scientific tool is available to industry regulators, to allow them to trace mussel produce to its source, uphold food safety standards and ensure consumer confidence. The present study uses chemical analysis of shells and soft tissues to classify individual M. edulis to their site of harvest. The use of random forest classification of trace element composition has revealed location specific elemental signatures for all examined sites. This led to the correct classification of 100% of individuals sampled to their respective harvesting locations, including two sites located just 6 km apart within the same bay. The protocol demonstrated here provides the basis for a scientifically driven traceability framework for shellfish produce.

Update of the Scientific Opinion on the risks to plant health posed by Xylella fastidiosa in the EU territory.

EFSA was asked to update the 2015 EFSA risk assessment on Xylella fastidiosa for the territory of the EU. In particular, EFSA was asked to focus on potential establishment, short- and long-range spread, the length of the asymptomatic period, the impact of X. fastidiosa and an update on risk reduction options. EFSA was asked to take into account the different subspecies and Sequence Types of X. fastidiosa. This was attempted throughout the scientific opinion but several issues with data availability meant that this could only be partially achieved. Models for risk of establishment showed most of the EU territory may be potentially suitable for X. fastidiosa although southern EU is most at risk. Differences in estimated areas of potential establishment were evident among X. fastidiosa subspecies, particularly X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex which demonstrated areas of potential establishment further north in the EU. The model of establishment could be used to develop targeted surveys by Member States. The asymptomatic period of X. fastidiosa varied significantly for different host and pathogen subspecies combinations, for example from a median of approximately 1 month in ornamental plants and up to 10 months in olive, for pauca. This variable and long asymptomatic period is a considerable limitation to successful detection and control, particularly where surveillance is based on visual inspection. Modelling suggested that local eradication (e.g. within orchards) is possible, providing sampling intensity is sufficient for early detection and effective control measures are implemented swiftly (e.g. within 30 days). Modelling of long-range spread (e.g. regional scale) demonstrated the important role of long-range dispersal and the need to better understand this. Reducing buffer zone width in both containment and eradication scenarios increased the area infected. Intensive surveillance for early detection, and consequent plant removal, of new outbreaks is crucial for both successful eradication and containment at the regional scale, in addition to effective vector control. The assessment of impacts indicated that almond and Citrus spp. were at lower impact on yield compared to olive. Although the lowest impact was estimated for grapevine, and the highest for olive, this was based on several assumptions including that the assessment considered only Philaenus spumarius as a vector. If other xylem-feeding insects act as vectors the impact could be different. Since the Scientific Opinion published in 2015, there are still no risk reduction options that can remove the bacterium from the plant in open field conditions. Short- and long-range spread modelling showed that an early detection and rapid application of phytosanitary measures, consisting among others of plant removal and vector control, are essential to prevent further spread of the pathogen to new areas. Further data collection will allow a reduction in uncertainty and facilitate more tailored and effective control given the intraspecific diversity of X. fastidiosa and wide host range.

Associations between animal welfare indicators and Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens under commercial settings: A case study.

Few studies have previously investigated how poor animal welfare might be associated with infection of zoonotic pathogens in humans. This paper assesses the predictive value of the presence of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chicken flocks when animal-based measures related to footpad dermatitis, hock burns, body lesions and arthritis are identified under commercial conditions (high density). The study population included 32 flocks analysed on farm and at slaughter, slaughtered between April and August 2008 in six different slaughter plants in Brittany, France. Welfare and health indicators are those indicated by the European legislation and sampling was carried out in the framework of the European baseline survey on the prevalence of Campylobacter in broiler chicken. Caecal contents, sampled both on farm and at slaughter, and carcass skin samples from the neck and breast at slaughter, were investigated for the presence of Campylobacter spp. Logistic models/classification trees were used to estimate the probability of the presence (or absence) of a specific foodborne pathogen in a flock based on specific animal-based measures (or combinations of measures) in order to study the potential relationship between welfare indicators and foodborne pathogen prevalence/incidence levels. On farm, flocks with more than 25% animals with severe lesions on between 25 and 50% of the footpad are predicted to be Campylobacter-positive whereas flocks where less than 13 individuals have arthritis are predicted to be Campylobacter-negative. The error rate on farm and at slaughter was 10 and 4% respectively indicating good predicting abilities. A poor welfare environment may result in stress, which reduces chicken immunocompetence making them more susceptible to Campylobacter spp. An infection with Campylobacter spp may lead to impaired defence and susceptibility to other pathogens which may result in greater intestinal excretion. Poor welfare and high growing rate lead to digestive troubles that lead to litter humidity. Litter humidity that, among other things, causes footpad dermatitis may also influence the horizontal transmission of the Campylobacter spp. infection due to the normal coprophagic behaviour of poultry. Reducing welfare problems by a better management of rearing conditions would not only improve broiler welfare, but it would also decrease the risks of Campylobacter contamination, of carcass condemnations and of economic loss for the poultry industry.

Update: use of the benchmark dose approach in risk assessment.

The Scientific Committee (SC) reconfirms that the benchmark dose (BMD) approach is a scientifically more advanced method compared to the NOAEL approach for deriving a Reference Point (RP). Most of the modifications made to the SC guidance of 2009 concern the section providing guidance on how to apply the BMD approach. Model averaging is recommended as the preferred method for calculating the BMD confidence interval, while acknowledging that the respective tools are still under development and may not be easily accessible to all. Therefore, selecting or rejecting models is still considered as a suboptimal alternative. The set of default models to be used for BMD analysis has been reviewed, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) has been introduced instead of the log-likelihood to characterise the goodness of fit of different mathematical models to a dose-response data set. A flowchart has also been inserted in this update to guide the reader step-by-step when performing a BMD analysis, as well as a chapter on the distributional part of dose-response models and a template for reporting a BMD analysis in a complete and transparent manner. Finally, it is recommended to always report the BMD confidence interval rather than the value of the BMD. The lower bound (BMDL) is needed as a potential RP, and the upper bound (BMDU) is needed for establishing the BMDU/BMDL per ratio reflecting the uncertainty in the BMD estimate. This updated guidance does not call for a general re-evaluation of previous assessments where the NOAEL approach or the BMD approach as described in the 2009 SC guidance was used, in particular when the exposure is clearly smaller (e.g. more than one order of magnitude) than the health-based guidance value. Finally, the SC firmly reiterates to reconsider test guidelines given the expected wide application of the BMD approach.

Translation of disease associated gene signatures across tissues.

It has recently been shown that disease associated gene signatures can be identified by profiling tissue other than the disease related tissue. In this paper, we investigate gene signatures for Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) using gene expression profiling of both disease related tissue (colon) and surrogate tissue (rectum). Gene specific joint ANOVA models were used to investigate differentially expressed genes between the IBS patients and the healthy controls taken into account both intra and inter tissue dependencies among expression levels of the same gene. Classification algorithms in combination with feature selection methods were used to investigate the predictive power of gene expression levels from the surrogate and the target tissues. We conclude based on the analyses that expression profiles of the colon and the rectum tissue could result in better predictive accuracy if the disease associated genes are known.

Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms.

In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3-4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3°C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale.

The Schmallenberg virus epidemic in Europe-2011-2013.

During the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) epidemic, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) collected data on SBV occurrence across Europe in order to provide an assessment of spread and impact. By May 2013, twenty-nine countries were reporting to EFSA and twenty-two countries had reported cases of SBV. The total number of SBV herds reported was 13,846 and the number of SBV laboratory confirmed herds was 8730. The surveillance activities were based on the detection of SBV clinical cases (either adults or newborns). Malformation in newborns was the most commonly reported clinical sign of SBV-infection. All countries were able to provide the date when the first suspicion of SBV in the herd was reported and nineteen could report the location of the herd at a regional level. This allowed the spread of SBV in Europe to be measured both temporally and spatially. The number of SBV confirmed herds started to increase in December 2011 and two peaks were observed in 2012 (February and May). Confirmed herds continued to be reported in 2012 and into 2013. An increase during winter 2012 and spring 2013 was again observed, but the number of confirmed herds was lower than in the previous year. SBV spread rapidly throughout Europe from the initial area of detection. SBV was detected above the latitude of 60° North, which exceeds the northern expansion observed during the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2006-2009. The impact of SBV was calculated as ratio of the number of herds with at least one malformed SBV positive foetus and the total number of herds in this region. The 75th percentile of the malformations ratio in the various affected countries for the whole reporting period was below 1% and 3% for cattle and sheep herds, respectively. International data collection on emerging diseases represents a challenge as the nature of available data, data quality and the proportion of reported cases may vary widely between affected countries. Surveillance activities on emerging animal diseases are often structured only for case detection making the estimation of infection/diseases prevalence and the investigation of risk factors difficult. The impact of the disease must be determined to allow risk managers to take appropriate decisions. Simple within-herd impact indicators suitable for emerging disease outbreaks should be defined that could be measured as part of routine animal health surveillance programmes and allow for rapid and reliable impact assessment of emerging animal health diseases.

Modelling the continental-scale spread of Schmallenberg virus in Europe: approaches and challenges.

Following its emergence in northern Europe in 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a vector-borne disease transmitted by the bites of Culicoides midges, has spread across much of the continent. Here we develop simple models to describe the spread of SBV at a continental scale and, more specifically, within and between NUTS2 regions in Europe. The model for the transmission of SBV between regions suggests that vector dispersal is the principle mechanism for transmission, even at the continental scale. The within-region model indicates that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst regions in the force of infection for cattle and sheep farms. Moreover, there is considerable under-ascertainment of SBV-affected holdings, though the level of under-ascertainment varies between regions. We contrast the relatively simple approach adopted in this study with the more complex continental-scale micro-simulation models which have been developed for pandemic influenza and discuss the strengths, weaknesses and data requirements of both approaches.