Modeling a Large-Scale Historic Aquifer Test: Insight into the Hydrogeology of a Regional Fault Zone.

Faults can act as flow barriers or conduits to groundwater flow by introducing heterogeneity in permeability. We examine the hydrogeology of the Sandwich Fault Zone, a 137 km long zone of high-angle faults in northern Illinois, using a large-scale historic aquifer test. The fault zone is poorly understood at depth due to the majority of the faults being buried by glacial deposits and its near-vertical orientation which limits geologic sampling across faults. The aquifer test-perhaps one of the largest in terms of overall withdrawal in North American history-was conducted in 1942 at a facility adjacent to the fault zone. More than 34,000 m3 /day was pumped for 37 days from nine multiaquifer wells open to the stratified Cambrian-Ordovician sandstone aquifer system. We modeled the aquifer test using a transient MODFLOW-USG model and simulated pumping wells with the CLN package. We tested numerous fault core/damage zone conceptualizations and calibrated to drawdown values recorded at production and observation wells. Our analysis indicates that the fault zone is a low-permeability feature that inhibits lateral movement of groundwater and that there is at least an order of magnitude decrease in horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the fault core compared to the undeformed sandstone. Large head declines have occurred north of the fault zone (over 300 m since predevelopment conditions) and modifying fault zone parameters significantly affects calibration to regional drawdown on a decadal scale. The flow-barrier behavior of the fault zone has important implications for future groundwater availability in this highly stressed region.

Developing Potentiometric Surfaces and Flow Fields with a Head-Specified MODFLOW Model.

Investigating changes in an aquifer system often involves comparison of observed heads from different synoptic measurements, generally with potentiometric surfaces developed by hand or a statistical approach. Alternatively, head-specified MODFLOW models, in which constant head cells simulate observed heads, generate gridded potentiometric surfaces that explicitly account for Darcy's Law and mass balance. We developed a transient head-specified MODFLOW model for the stratified Cambrian-Ordovician sandstone aquifer system of northeastern Illinois to analyze flow within its 275 m deep cone of depression. Potentiometric surfaces were developed using static heads from production wells regardless of open interval; hence assuming no vertical head difference. This assumption was tested against steady-state, head-specified models of each sandstone strata for 1980 and 2014. The results indicate that the original conceptual model was appropriate in 1980 but not 2014, where a vertical head difference had developed at the center of the cone of depression. For earlier years, when the head difference was minimal, the transient head-specified model compared well with a traditional, flow-specified model. In later years, the transient head-specified model overestimated removal of water from storage. MODFLOW facilitates the development of a time-series of potentiometric surfaces and can easily be modified to test the impacts of different conceptual models, such as assumptions on vertical head differences. For this study of a deep confined aquifer, MODFLOW also offers advantages in generating potentiometric surfaces and flow fields over statistical interpolation techniques, although future research is needed to assess its performance in other settings.

Predicting Redox Conditions in Groundwater at a Regional Scale.

Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.