Predicting Daily Aerobiological Risk Level of Potato Late Blight Using C5.0 and Random Forest Algorithms under Field Conditions.

Late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans, is a major disease of the potato crop with a strong negative impact on tuber yield and tuber quality. The control of late blight in conventional potato production systems is often through weekly application of prophylactic fungicides, moving away from a sustainable production system. In support of integrated pest management practices, machine learning algorithms were proposed as tools to forecast aerobiological risk level (ARL) of Phytophthora infestans (>10 sporangia/m3) as inoculum to new infections. For this, meteorological and aerobiological data were monitored during five potato crop seasons in Galicia (northwest Spain). Mild temperatures (T) and high relative humidity (RH) were predominant during the foliar development (FD), coinciding with higher presence of sporangia in this phenological stage. The infection pressure (IP), wind, escape or leaf wetness (LW) of the same day also were significantly correlated with sporangia according to Spearman's correlation test. ML algorithms such as random forest (RF) and C5.0 decision tree (C5.0) were successfully used to predict daily sporangia levels, with an accuracy of the models of 87% and 85%, respectively. Currently, existing late blight forecasting systems assume a constant presence of critical inoculum. Therefore, ML algorithms offer the possibility of predicting critical levels of Phytophthora infestans concentration. The inclusion of this type of information in forecasting systems would increase the exactitude in the estimation of the sporangia of this potato pathogen.

Examining Phenotypic Traits Contributing to the Spread in Northern European Potato Crops of EU_41_A2, a New Clonal Lineage of Phytophthora infestans.

Until recently, genotypes of Phytophthora infestans were regionally distributed in Europe, with populations in western Europe being dominated by clonal lineages and those in northern Europe being genetically diverse because of frequent sexual reproduction. However, since 2013 a new clonal lineage (EU_41_A2) has successfully established itself and expanded in the sexually recombining P. infestans populations of northern Europe. The objective of this study was to study phenotypic traits of the new clonal lineage of P. infestans, which may explain its successful establishment and expansion within sexually recombining populations. Fungicide sensitivity, aggressiveness, and virulence profiles of isolates of EU_41_A2 were analyzed and compared with those of the local sexual populations from Denmark, Norway, and Estonia. None of the phenotypic data obtained from the isolates collected from Denmark, Estonia, and Norway independently explained the invasive success of EU_41_A2 within sexual Nordic populations. Therefore, we hypothesize that the expansion of this new genotype could result from a combination of fitness traits and more favorable environmental conditions that have emerged in response to climate change.

The influence of timing the application of nitrogen fertilizer on early blight (Alternaria solani).

BACKGROUND: Field experiments were carried out in 2016 and 2017 to study the influence of timing the application of nitrogen fertilizer (N-fertilizer) on the susceptibility of potatoes to early blight. We hypothesized that potatoes that receive N-fertilizer as split applications or a one-time application at emergence will have a higher N content and be less susceptible to early blight than those that receive N-fertilizer as a one-time application before planting. N-fertilizer was applied either as a one-time application before planting or at emergence and as split applications. RESULTS: Potatoes that did not receive N-fertilizer were more susceptible to early blight [high area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC)] than those that did receive N-fertilizer (low AUDPC). The timing of N-fertilizer application had a significant effect on the susceptibility of potatoes to early blight. Potatoes that received the entire quantity of N-fertilizer at emergence or as split applications had higher N contents and were less susceptible to early blight than those that received the entire quantity of N-fertilizer before planting. Potatoes that did not receive N-fertilizer had a markedly lower starch yield than potatoes that received N-fertilizer. Potatoes that received the entire quantity of N-fertilizer before planting had a lower starch yield than potatoes that received the entire quantity of N-fertilizer at emergence or as split applications. CONCLUSION: N-fertilizer applied as a one-time application at emergence or as a split application was the best treatment to ensure both high N content and lower attack of early blight, which confirms our hypothesis. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.