Investigating the Potential Strategic Implications of COVID-19 for Biological Weapons Pursuit: A New Expert Simulation.

To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the strategic decisionmaking of leaders with respect to biological weapons, this study employed a prospective simulation technique called Asynchronous Strategic Dynamics Red Teaming. Using an immersive, multimedia simulation conducted remotely and asynchronously, the effort engaged 240 carefully selected and curated expert participants in either biological weapons or the countries of interest (as well as 60 naïve participants). Across our sample of 30 countries, simulated interest in pursuing some type of biological weapons program (defensive or offensive) remained low to moderate. While such interest increased after the simulated onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was limited overall, with only a handful of states showing salient increases in offensive biological weapon interest. When directly referencing why their countries might have changed their post-COVID-19 interest in biological weapons, the most commonly cited reasons were: (1) COVID-19 demonstrated the power of biological weapons to disrupt societies and cause large-scale economic harm, and (2) the pandemic revealed either the state's own or its rivals' vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, as well as an inability to efficiently respond and contain such diseases. In sum, despite a global pandemic with massive consequences, the simulation revealed that most states are not likely to dramatically change their strategic posture regarding pursuit of offensive biological weapons.

Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study.

Biological threat characterization (BTC) involves laboratory research conducted for the purpose of biological defense. BTC research is important for improving biological risk assessment and informing resource prioritization. However, there are also risks involved in BTC work, including potential for escape from the laboratory or the misuse of research results. Using a modified Delphi study to gather opinions from U.S. experts in biosecurity and biodefense, this analysis explores what principles and safeguards can maximize the benefits of BTC research and ensure that it is conducted safely and securely. Delphi participants were asked to give their opinions about the need for BTC research by the U.S. government (USG); risks of conducting this research; rules or guidelines that should be in place to ensure that the work is safe and accurate; components of an effective review and prioritization process; rules for when characterization of a pathogen can be discontinued; and recommendations about who in the USG should be responsible for BTC prioritization decisions. The findings from this research reinforce the need for BTC research at the federal level as well as a need for continued review and oversight of this research to maximize its effectiveness and reduce the risks involved. It also demonstrates the need for further discussion of what would constitute a "red line" for biothreat characterization research-research that should not be performed for safety, ethical, or practical reasons-and guidelines for when there is sufficient research in a given topic area so that the research can be considered completed.

Understanding the Adoption Process of National Security Technology: An Integration of Diffusion of Innovations and Volitional Behavior Theories.

After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. government initiated several national security technology adoption programs. The American public, however, has been skeptical about these initiatives and adoption of national security technologies has been mandated, rather than voluntary. We propose and test a voluntary behavioral intention formation model for the adoption of one type of new security technology: portable radiation detectors. Portable radiation detectors are an efficient way of detecting radiological and nuclear threats and could potentially prevent loss of life and damage to individuals' health. However, their functioning requires that a critical mass of individuals use them on a daily basis. We combine the explanatory advantages of diffusion of innovation with the predictive power of two volitional behavior frameworks: the theory of reasoned action and the health belief model. A large sample survey (N = 1,482) investigated the influence of factors identified in previous diffusion of innovation research on portable radiation detector adoption intention. Results indicated that nonfinancial incentives, as opposed to financial incentives, should be emphasized in persuasive communications aimed at fostering adoption. The research provides a new integration of diffusion of innovation elements with determinants of volitional behavior from persuasion literature, and offers recommendations on effective communication about new security technologies to motivate public adoption and enhance national safety.

Cross-Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat.

This article uses a game-theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross-milieu terrorist collaboration-the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists' collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision-making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right-wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right- or left-wing extremists. The game-theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.

Sexual assault: a report on human immunodeficiency virus postexposure prophylaxis.

The objective of this report is to describe an urban county hospital human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection prevention protocol offering prophylactic combination antiretroviral medications to female victims of sexual assault. A retrospective chart review was conducted from June, 2007 through June, 2008 of 151 women who were prescribed antiretroviral prophylaxis by protocol. All women receiving HIV prophylaxis initially screened HIV seronegative. Of the 58 women who reported taking any HIV prophylaxis, 36 (62%) were HIV screened at 12 and/or 24 weeks and none had HIV seroconverted. Although the initiation of an HIV post exposure prophylaxis protocol for sexual assault in a county hospital population is feasible, patient follow-up for counseling and HIV serostatus evaluation is an identified barrier.

Chapter 14 : Biological and chemical terrorism : a unique threat

The prospect of chemical or biological terrorism, especially an event that causes mass casualties (i.e., a weapon of mass destruction) poses a great challenge to the U.S. health care system. The use of infectious organisms or toxic compounds by terrorist can have immediate and long-term effects. But even if our understanding of terrorism is inchoate, it is also important to keep the real risks in perspective. The terrorist operates in a diferent world than state-run military, and the contrast is especially important when it comes to developing chemical or biological weapons. Past experience and the nature of chemical or chemical or biological agents suggest that terrorists will rely upon conventional explosives. Some large casuality events could result, however from the application of large quantities of toxic nerve agents, or efficiently aerosolized pathogens. In such cases, hospitals and other emergency health care facilities may be forced to make stark choices in triaging patients. Given the heightened awareness of the real or perceived threat of chemical or biological terrorism in today's society, it is also likely thet mass psychogenic illness may present itself in a given population. Distinguishing such events with actual cases of biological and chemical terrorism may be quite difficult, at least early on (AU)