Development and validation of a simple machine learning tool to predict mortality in leptospirosis.

Predicting risk factors for death in leptospirosis is challenging, and identifying high-risk patients is crucial as it might expedite the start of life-saving supportive care. Admission data of 295 leptospirosis patients were enrolled, and a machine-learning approach was used to fit models in a derivation cohort. The comparison of accuracy metrics was performed with two previous models-SPIRO score and quick SOFA score. A Lasso regression analysis was the selected model, demonstrating the best accuracy to predict mortality in leptospirosis [area under the curve (AUC-ROC) = 0.776]. A score-based prediction was carried out with the coefficients of this model and named LeptoScore. Then, to simplify the predictive tool, a new score was built by attributing points to the predictors with importance values higher than 1. The simplified score, named QuickLepto, has five variables (age > 40 years; lethargy; pulmonary symptom; mean arterial pressure < 80 mmHg and hematocrit < 30%) and good predictive accuracy (AUC-ROC = 0.788). LeptoScore and QuickLepto had better accuracy to predict mortality in patients with leptospirosis when compared to SPIRO score (AUC-ROC = 0.500) and quick SOFA score (AUC-ROC = 0.782). The main result is a new scoring system, the QuickLepto, that is a simple and useful tool to predict death in leptospirosis patients at hospital admission.

Progressive disseminated histoplasmosis in HIV-positive patients.

BACKGROUND: Histoplasmosis is the most common endemic mycosis among people living with advanced HIV infection. PURPOSE: Describe general aspects and challenges of this disease and its association with HIV. RESEARCH DESIGN: Review of literature. STUDY SAMPLE: Articles found using different combinations of terms including "disseminated histoplasmosis" and AIDS/HIV or immunosuppression in PubMed, Scopus, WHO Global health library, and Scielo database. ANALYSIS: We look for information on epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of histoplasmosis in AIDS patients. RESULTS: Histoplasmosis is caused by Histoplasma capsulatum, a dimorphic fungus encountered throughout the world, mainly in soil enriched with bat and bird excreta. Progressive disseminated histoplasmosis is the main presentation of this mycosis in people living with advanced HIV and is fatal if left untreated. Symptoms include a systemic disease characterized by fever, weight loss, night sweats, skin manifestations, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, and septic shock. Diagnostic tests include culture, visualization of H. capsulatum by direct and histopathological examination, serology, antigen, molecular, and skin testing. Patients with disseminated disease require aggressive and prolonged treatment to eradicate the pathogen and include amphotericin B and itraconazole. In many low income countries of endemic regions, histoplasmosis in HIV-positive patients is often undiagnosed or misdiagnosed as another opportunistic infection, due to the similarity in clinical manifestations and to the paucity of better diagnostic tests. CONCLUSION: Histoplasmosis remains a neglected disease. Few studies about the disease and expensive treatments make it difficult to reduce the morbidity and mortality of this condition. Public health services and physicians must be aware of histoplasmosis' burden among the HIV-positive population.