Tracing the origin of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-like Spike sequences detected in wastewater

ImportanceThe origin of highly divergent "cryptic" SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences, which appear in wastewater but not clinical samples, is unknown. These wastewater sequences have harbored many of the same mutations that later emerged in Omicron variants. If these enigmatic sequences are human-derived and transmissible, they could both be a source of future variants and a valuable tool for forecasting sequences that should be incorporated into vaccines and therapeutics. ObjectiveTo determine whether enigmatic SARS-CoV-2 lineages detected in wastewater have a human or non-human (i.e., animal) source. DesignOn January 11, 2022, an unusual Spike sequence was detected in municipal wastewater from a metropolitan area. Over the next four months, more focused wastewater sampling resolved the source of this variant. SettingThis study was performed in Wisconsin, United States, which has a comprehensive program for detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. ParticipantsComposite wastewater samples were used for this study; therefore, no individuals participated. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)The primary outcome was to determine the host(s) responsible for shedding this variant in wastewater. Both human and non-human hosts were plausible candidates at the studys outset. ResultsThe presence of the cryptic virus was narrowed from a municipal wastewater sample (catchment area >100,000 people) to an indoor wastewater sample from a single facility (catchment area [~]30 people), indicating the human origin of this virus. Extraordinarily high concentrations of viral RNA ([~]520,000,000 genome copies / L and [~]1,600,000,000 genome copies / L in June and August 2022, respectively) were detected in the indoor wastewater sample. The virus sequence harbored a combination of fixed nucleotide substitutions previously observed only in Pango lineage B.1.234, a variant that circulated at low levels in Wisconsin from October 2020 to February 2021. Conclusions and RelevanceHigh levels of persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding from the gastrointestinal tract of an infected individual likely explain the presence of evolutionarily advanced "cryptic variants" observed in some wastewater samples. Key points QuestionWhat is the source of unusual SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-like Spike variants detected in wastewater but not in clinical samples? FindingsWe identified a cryptic SARS-CoV-2 lineage in wastewater collected at a central wastewater treatment facility and traced its source to a single wastewater outlet serving six restrooms. The virus in this sample resembled a 2020-2021 lineage except for the Spike protein, in which Omicron-like variants were observed. MeaningProlonged shedding from the human gastrointestinal tract is the most likely source for evolutionarily advanced SARS-CoV-2 variant sequences found in wastewater.

Separating Signal from Noise in Wastewater Data: An Algorithm to Identify Community-Level COVID-19 Surges

Wastewater monitoring has shown promise in providing an early warning for new COVID-19 outbreaks, but to date, no approach has been validated to reliably distinguish signal from noise in wastewater data and thereby alert officials to when the data show a need for heightened public health response. We analyzed 62 weeks of data from 19 sites participating in the North Carolina Wastewater Monitoring Network to characterize wastewater metrics before and around the Delta and Omicron surges. We found that, on average, wastewater data identified new outbreaks four to five days before case data (reported based on the earlier of the symptom start date or test collection date). At most sites, correlations between wastewater and case data were similar regardless of how wastewater concentrations were normalized, and correlations were slightly stronger with county-level cases than sewershed-level cases, suggesting that officials may not need to geospatially align case data with sewershed boundaries to gain insights into disease transmission. Wastewater trend lines showed clear differences in the Delta versus Omicron surge trajectories, but no single wastewater metric (detectability, percent change, or flow-population normalized viral concentrations) adequately indicated when these surges started. After iteratively examining different combinations of these three metrics, we developed a simple algorithm that identifies unprecedented signals in the wastewater to help clarify changes in communities COVID-19 burden. Our novel algorithm accurately identified the start of both the Delta and Omicron surges in 84% of sites, potentially providing public health officials with an automated way to flag community-level COVID-19 surges.

Wastewater surveillance using ddPCR reveals highly accurate tracking of omicron variant due to altered N1 probe binding efficiency

Wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 is being used worldwide to understand COVID-19 infection trends in a community. We found the emergence and rapid timeline for dominance of the Omicron variant was accurately reflected in wastewater when measured with droplet digital (dd)PCR. We were able to distinguish Omicron from the circulating Delta variant because Omicron has a mutation in the N1 probe binding region that diminished the fluorescent signal within individual droplets. The ddPCR platform may be advantageous for wastewater surveillance since analysis of the data can segregate fluorescent signals from different individual templates. In contrast, platforms such as qPCR that rely solely on the intensity of fluorescence for quantification would not distinguish a subset of variants with mutations affecting the reaction and could underestimate SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. The proportion of Omicron in wastewater was tightly correlated to clinical cases in five cities and provided a higher resolution timeline of appearance and dominance (>75%) than sequenced clinical samples, which were limited in less populated areas. Taken together, this work demonstrates wastewater is a reliable metric for tracking SARS-CoV-2 at a population level.

Evaluation of sampling frequency and normalization of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations for capturing COVID-19 burdens in the community

Wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 provides an approach for assessing the infection burden across a city. For these data to be useful for public health, measurement variability and the relationship to case data need to be established. We measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the influent of twelve wastewater treatment plants from August 2020 to January 2021. Replicate samples demonstrated that N1 gene target concentrations varied by {+/-}21% between technical replicate filters and by {+/-}14% between duplicate assays. COVID-19 cases were correlated significantly (rho[≥]0.70) to wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations for seven plants, including large and small cities. SARS-CoV-2 data normalized to flow improved correlations to reported COVID-19 cases for some plants but normalizing to a spiked recovery control (BCoV) or a fecal marker (PMMoV or HF183) generally reduced correlations. High frequency sampling demonstrated that a minimum of two samples collected per week was needed to maintain accuracy in trend analysis. We found a significantly different ratio of COVID-19 cases to SARS-CoV-2 loads in one of three large communities, suggesting a higher rate of undiagnosed cases. These data demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance can provide a useful community-wide metric to assess the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.