BSE risk posed by ruminant collagen and gelatine derived from bones.

The European Commission requested an estimation of the BSE risk (C-, L- and H-BSE) from gelatine and collagen derived from ovine, caprine or bovine bones, and produced in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 853/2004, or Regulation (EC) No 1069/2009 and its implementing Regulation (EU) No 142/2011. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the BSE infectivity, measured in cattle oral infectious dose 50 (CoID50), in a small size batch of gelatine including one BSE-infected bovine or ovine animal at the clinical stage. The model was built on a scenario where all ruminant bones could be used for the production of gelatine and high-infectivity tissues remained attached to the skull (brain) and vertebral column (spinal cord). The risk and exposure pathways defined for humans and animals, respectively, were identified. Exposure routes other than oral via food and feed were considered and discussed but not assessed quantitatively. Other aspects were also considered as integrating evidence, like the epidemiological situation of the disease, the species barrier, the susceptibility of species to BSE and the assumption of an exponential dose-response relationship to determine the probability of BSE infection in ruminants. Exposure to infectivity in humans cannot be directly translated to risk of disease because the transmission barrier has not yet been quantified, although it is considered to be substantial, i.e. much greater amounts of infectivity would be needed to successfully infect a human and greater in the oral than in the parenteral route of exposure. The probability that no new case of BSE in the cattle or small ruminant population would be generated through oral exposure to gelatine made of ruminant bones is 99%-100% (almost certain) This conclusion is based on the current state of knowledge, the epidemiological situation of the disease and the current practices, and is also valid for collagen.

A review of cleaning and disinfection guidelines and recommendations following an outbreak of classical scrapie.

Classical scrapie is a prion disease of small ruminants, the infectious agent of which has been shown to be extremely persistent in the environment. Cleaning and disinfection (C&D) after a scrapie outbreak is currently recommended by many governments' veterinary advisors and implemented in most farms affected. Yet, the effectiveness of these procedures remains unclear. The aim of this study was to review existing literature and guidelines regarding farm C&D protocols following classical scrapie outbreaks and assess their effectiveness and the challenges that translation of policy and legislative requirements present at a practical level. A review of the literature was conducted to identify the on-farm C&D protocols used following outbreaks of scrapie, assess those materials with high risk for persistence of the scrapie agent on farms, and review the existing evidence of the effectiveness of recommended C&D protocols. An expert workshop was also organised in Great Britain (GB) to assess: the decision-making process used when implementing C&D protocols on GB farms, the experts' perceptions on the effectiveness of these protocols and changes needed, and their views on potential recommendations for policy and research. Outputs of the literature review revealed that the current recommended protocol for C&D [1 h treatment with sodium hypochlorite containing 20,000 ppm free chlorine or 2 M sodium hydroxide (NaOH)] is based on laboratory experiments. Only four field farm experiments have been conducted, indicating a lack of data on effectiveness of C&D protocols on farms by the re-occurrence of scrapie infection post re-stocking. Recommendations related to the control of outdoor environment, which are difficult and expensive to implement, vary between countries. The expert workshop concluded that there are no practical, cost-effective C&D alternatives to be considered at this time, with control therefore based on C&D only in combination with additional time restrictions on re-stocking and replacement with non-susceptible livestock or more genetically resistant types, where available. Participants agreed that C&D should still be completed on scrapie affected farms, as it is considered to be "good disease practice" and likely to reduce the levels of the prion protein. Participants felt that any additional protocols developed should not be "too prescriptive" (should not be written down in specific policies) because of significant variation in farm types, farm equipment and installations. Under this scenario, control of classical scrapie on farms should be designed with a level of C&D in combination with re-stocking temporal ban and replacement with livestock of limited susceptibility.

Using network analysis to identify seasonal patterns and key nodes for risk-based surveillance of pig diseases in Italy.

The description of the pattern of livestock movements between herds provides essential information for both improving risk-based surveillance and to understand the likely spread of infectious diseases. This study provides a description of the temporal pattern of pig movements recorded in Italy on a 4-year period (2013-2016). Data, provided by the National Livestock registry, were described by social network analysis and the application of a walk-trap algorithm for community detection. Our results show a highly populated community located in Northern Italy, which is the focal point of the Italian industrial pig production and as a general pattern an overall decline of medium and backyard farms and an increase in the number of large farms, in agreement with the trend observed by other EU pig-producing countries. A seasonal pattern of all the parameters evaluated, including the number of active nodes in both the intensive and smaller production systems, emerged: that is characterized by a higher number of movements in spring and autumn, linked with the breeding and production cycle as pigs moved from the growing to the finishing phase and with periods of increased slaughtering at Christmas and Easter. The same pattern was found when restricting the analysis to imported pig batches. Outbreaks occurring during these periods would have a greater impact on the spread of infectious diseases; therefore, targeted surveillance may be appropriate. Finally, potential super-spreader nodes have been identified and represent 0.47% of the total number of pig holdings (n = 477). Those nodes are present during the whole study period with a similar ranking in their potential of being super-spreaders. Most of them were in Northern Italy, but super-spreaders with high mean out-degree centrality were also located in other Regions. Seasonality, communities and super-spreaders should be considered when planning surveillance activity and when applying disease control strategies.

Integration of computational tools, data analysis and social science into food safety risk assessment.

The EU-FORA Fellowship Programme 'Integration of tools and social science into food safety risk assessments' was proposed by the Food Standards Agency (FSA), the government department responsible for food safety in the UK. The working programme was organised into four modules, covering different areas of risk assessment, including microbiological risk assessment, chemical risk assessment, exposure assessment, risk prioritisation and the integration of risk assessment with social science. During this period, the fellow had the unique opportunity to gain experience in different fields of risk assessment, namely how to conduct a systematic review, to assess the risk of microbiological and chemical hazards, to make use of modelling tools for exposure assessment and risk prioritisation, to write scientific reports for committees and networks at the national level and to understand the role of social science in risk assessment. In addition, the fellow was able to attend several meetings, seminars, courses and workshops that helped him to gain further insight in the field of food science. The complete programme enabled a fast learning curve that allowed the fellow to have an overview of the different tools that can be employed in the wide field of food safety risk assessment, in order to acquire skills and competences that can be used in his future career.

Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom.

In 2018 prion disease was detected in camels at an abattoir in Algeria for the first time. The emergence of prion disease in this species made it prudent to assess the probability of entry of the pathogen into the United Kingdom (UK) from this region. Potentially contaminated products were identified as evidenced by other prion diseases. The aggregated probability of entry of the pathogen was estimated as very high and high for legal milk and cheese imports respectively and very high, high and high for illegal meat, milk and cheese products respectively. This aggregated probability represents a qualitative assessment of the probability of one or more entry events per year into the UK; it gives no indication of the number of entry events per year. The uncertainty associated with these estimates was high due to the unknown variation in prevalence of infection in camels and an uncertain number and type of illegal products entering the UK. Potential public health implications of this pathogen are unknown although there is currently no evidence of zoonotic transmission of prion diseases other than bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans.

Estimating the amount of Chronic Wasting Disease infectivity passing through abattoirs and field slaughter.

Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a highly infectious, naturally occurring, transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE, or prion disease) affecting many cervid species. CWD has been widely circulating in North America since it was first reported in 1967. In 2016, the first European case of prion disease in deer was reported and confirmed in Norway. There have since been several confirmed several cases in reindeer and moose and in one red deer in Norway, and recently in a moose in Finland. There is concern over the susceptibility of certain species, especially domestic livestock, to CWD. Recently, a study was presented showing transmission to cynomolgus macaques. Although preliminary, these results raise concerns that CWD may be transmissible to humans. This quantitative risk assessment estimates, by stochastic simulation, the titre of infectivity (herein referred to as "infectivity"), that would pass into the human food chain and environment (in the UK) as a result of a single CWD positive red deer passing through an abattoir, or being field dressed. The model estimated that around 11,000 mouse i.c. log ID50 units would enter the human food chain through the farmed route or wild route. The model estimated that there are around 83,000 mouse i.c. log ID50 units in a deer carcase, compared to around 22,000 in a sheep carcase infected with scrapie, mainly due to the size difference between a red deer and a sheep. For farmed deer, the model estimated that 87% of total carcase infectivity would become animal by-product category 3 material, with only 13% going to the food chain and a small amount to wastewater via the abattoir floor. For wild deer, the model estimated that on average, 85% of total carcase infectivity would be buried in the environment, with 13% going to the food chain and 2% to category 3 material which may be used as a protein source in other industries. Results indicate that if CWD was found in the UK there would be a risk of prions entering the human food chain and the environment. However, it is unclear if humans would be susceptible to CWD following consumption of contaminated meat, or what the environmental impact would be. This risk assessment highlights the need for further research in order to quantify the infectivity in all tissue types, in particular blood, gastrointestinal (GI) tract and skeletal muscle.

Spatio-temporal and risk factor analysis of alleles related to Scrapie resistance in sheep in Great Britain before, during and after a national breeding program.

Certain genotypes of sheep have been identified to increase their susceptibility (the VRQ allele) or resistance (the ARR allele) to classical scrapie. This study's aim was to assess the spatio-temporal pattern of the ARR and VRQ alleles in Great Britain (GB) and to explore the risk factors associated to their presence. Data was collected from the GB scrapie active surveillance program, the sheep and goat inventory survey (GB census survey) and the agricultural survey for the period 2002-2015. Spatio-temporal trends of genotypes were assessed through the use of choropleth maps, spatial cluster and linear regression analyses. Multivariable mixed effect logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the resistant or susceptible genotypes, and breeds, farm purpose, animal purpose, surveillance stream, country location and herd size. The results show a significant upward trend in the frequency of most resistant ARR alleles (1.15% per year, 95%CI: 0.76-1.53) and significant downward trend of most susceptible VRQ alleles (-0.40% per year; 95%CI: -0.69 to -0.10]. The trend continues after the termination of the national scrapie plan in 2009. Breeds such as Herdwick (OR = 0,26; 95%CI: 0.14-0.46), Shetland (OR = 0.22; 95%CI: 0.13-0.39), Swaledale (OR = 0.58; 95%CI: 0.47-0.73), Scottish blackface (OR = 0.54; 95%CI: 0.41-0.71) and Welsh Montain (OR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.44-0.79) were identified with lower odds ratios of having the resistant ARR allele, while Beulah speckled face (OR = 1.58; 95%CI: 1.04-2.41), Jacob (OR = 2.91; 95%CI: 1.33-6.40), Lleyn (OR = 2.94; 95%CI: 1.28-6.74) and Suffolk (OR = 2.19; 95%CI: 1.69-2.84) had higher odds ratios of having the ARR allele. Other risk factors associated to presence of ARR allele were finishing farms (OR = 1.15; 95%CI: 1.06-1.24) and farms in Scotland (OR = 0,78; 95%CI: 0.73-0.83) and in Lowland grazing areas (OR = 1.53; 95%CI: 1.39-1.67). Factors associated with presence the VRQ genotype were farms in Scotland (OR = 0,85; 95%CI: 0.77-0.93) and breeds such as Herdwick (OR = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.08-4.97), Shetland (OR = 4.12; 95%CI: 2.20-7.73) and Sweledale (OR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.10-2.09). For the most resistant genotype, two significant spatial clusters were identified: a high-risk cluster in the south-west of GB (RR = 1.51, p < 0.001) and a low-risk cluster in northern GB (RR = 0.65, p < 0.001). For the most susceptible genotypes, one significant high-risk cluster was identified in Wales (RR = 2.89 and p = 0.013). Surveillance for classical scrapie could be improved with a risk-based approach by focussing on those areas and farm types identified to have higher frequency of VRQ alleles and less frequency of ARR alleles. Scrapie control strategies could focus on developing breeding programs on farms with Shetland, Herdwick and Swaledale breeds.

Estimating the impact on food and edible materials of changing scrapie control measures: The scrapie control model.

Multiple controls established during the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic were not solely applied to BSE in cattle, but were implemented for scrapie in sheep and goats due to concerns over the occurrence of BSE in sheep. In the absence of BSE in sheep being observed, control measures for prion diseases are now being evaluated to ensure they remain proportionate to risk. This risk assessment, aims to estimate, by use of stochastic simulation, the impact of reducing controls for Specified Risk Materials (SRM) from sheep at abattoir. Three scenarios have been included: 1) current list of SRM; 2) brain and spinal cord of adult sheep; and 3) the brain of adult sheep. Results indicate the total amount of infectivity passing through British abattoirs is highest for atypical scrapie with nearly 3,500,000 Ovine Oral (OO) ID50 per year. The majority of this infectivity enters Category 1 waste for incineration, with only 13,000 OO ID50 per year within edible products. Under Scenario 2, an additional 4000 OO ID50 per year would be classified as edible products from the lifting of restrictions on the distal ileum of adult sheep. However, if SRM removal was limited to brain, an additional 110,000 OO ID50 per year would be permitted into edible products with the lifting of restrictions on the spinal cord of adult sheep. For classical scrapie, there is a mean estimate of infectivity of 30,000 OO ID50 per year at abattoir. This is lower than for atypical scrapie due to the lower occurrence of this disease in Great Britain. However, more infectivity is destined to reach the food chain as the disease is peripherally distributed in the carcase. The highest contributor to the total amount of infectivity consumed per year is the intestines (duodenum and jejunum). If SRM removal is limited to the brain and spinal cord of sheep over 12 months of age, there is an approximate mean increase from 19,000 to 21,000 OO ID50 per year diverted to edible products. If the SRM list is restricted to brain only, this increases to over 23,000 OO ID50 per year. For the potential of sheep-BSE, there is a very low estimate of 29 OO ID50 per year in total from carcases entering abattoir, due to the potential very rare occurrence of this disease. Given changes in SRM regulations there is a change of an additional 4 OO ID50 per year being diverted to edible products.

Updated quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the BSE risk posed by processed animal protein (PAP).

EFSA was requested: to assess the impact of a proposed quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) 'technical zero' on the limit of detection of official controls for constituents of ruminant origin in feed, to review and update the 2011 QRA, and to estimate the cattle bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) risk posed by the contamination of feed with BSE-infected bovine-derived processed animal protein (PAP), should pig PAP be re-authorised in poultry feed and vice versa, using both light microscopy and ruminant qPCR methods, and action limits of 100, 150, 200, 250 and 300 DNA copies. The current qPCR cannot discriminate between legitimately added bovine material and unauthorised contamination, or determine if any detected ruminant material is associated with BSE infectivity. The sensitivity of the surveillance for the detection of material of ruminant origin in feed is currently limited due to the heterogeneous distribution of the material, practicalities of sampling and test performance. A 'technical zero' will further reduce it. The updated model estimated a total BSE infectivity four times lower than that estimated in 2011, with less than one new case of BSE expected to arise each year. In the hypothetical scenario of a whole carcass of an infected cow entering the feed chain without any removal of specified risk material (SRM) or reduction of BSE infectivity via rendering, up to four new cases of BSE could be expected at the upper 95th percentile. A second model estimated that at least half of the feed containing material of ruminant origin will not be detected or removed from the feed chain, if an interpretation cut-off point of 100 DNA copies or more is applied. If the probability of a contaminated feed sample increased to 5%, with an interpretation cut-off point of 300 DNA copies, there would be a fourfold increase in the proportion of all produced feed that is contaminated but not detected.

Assessment of biosecurity and control measures to prevent incursion and to limit spread of emerging transboundary animal diseases in Europe: An expert survey.

Decision-makers and risk managers are often called upon to prioritise on and recommend suitable measures to prevent the risk of introduction and spread of pathogens. The main objective of this study was to assess the perceptions of experts in Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom concerning the importance, effectiveness, feasibility, costs and acceptability of selected biosecurity measures to prevent the introduction and limit the spread of rabies, blue tongue (BT) and classical swine fever (CSF). After identifying the most relevant measures by the project team, an expert knowledge elicitation was implemented through a questionnaire. After preliminary descriptive analyses, a number of statistical calculations were performed such as weighted medians, Spearman rank correlation tests, Wilcoxon comparison tests and ranking of measures. Three experts from each country completed the questionnaires, one expert for each disease. The mean answer rates for CSF, BT and rabies were 73%, 100% and 99% respectively. "Tracing system for live animal trade" was highlighted as very relevant in all diseases. The implementation of a "restriction zone after a suspicion or confirmation" was also rated as a relevant measure, especially for CSF. We identified generally a small correlation between costs and the other criteria. Among the rabies experts, measures related to "zoonotic risk" were rated highly, supporting the idea of a One Health approach. Disagreement among experts concerned 43 measures for the three pathogens: the debated measures were "control of the wildlife CSF status", "arthropod-vector control" and "rabies vaccination for domestic animals". Facing budget restriction, decision-makers need to prioritise their actions and make efficient prevention choices. With this study, we aimed to provide elements for reflection and to inform priority setting. The results can be applied through the implementation of similar surveys or directly from the knowledge already gathered in this study.

Assessing the time taken for a surveillance system to detect a re-emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle.

During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in July 2001 the European Commission established a surveillance scheme for the comprehensive sampling of all BSE clinical suspects, healthy slaughter (HS) animals >30months, and all emergency slaughter and fallen stock animals tested when >24months. With the exponential decline in classical BSE cases, this comprehensive surveillance system has been successively modified to become risk-based, targeting those exit streams and ages where cases from the original epidemic are most likely to be detected. Such reductions in testing are not without losses in the information subsequently collected, which could affect the sensitivity of the surveillance system to relatively small changes in the underlying prevalence of BSE across the European Union (EU). Here we report on a cohort-based approach to estimate the time taken for EU surveillance to observe a theoretical re-emergence of BSE in cattle. A number of surveillance schemes were compared. The baseline scheme considered detection being triggered by at least one case in the 'age window' 48-72 months in the fallen stock or emergency slaughter exit streams. Alternative schemes changed the start and end of this age window as well as considering testing for HS cattle. Under the baseline scheme, an estimated 15 years would lapse ([2.5th, 97.5th] percentiles=[10,24]) prior to detection, during which time 2867 infected animals ([2.5th, 97.5th]=[1722,6967]) would enter the slaughter population. These animals would be predominantly young animals (majority <24months) showing no clinical signs. This baseline scheme reduced the time to detection by 2 years, compared to a scheme where only clinical suspects were tested assuming BSE symptoms are recognised to the same degree by veterinary surgeons. Additional testing of younger animals did not improve detection as young infected animals were unlikely to test positive, but testing of older animals reduced the time to detection. Testing of HS animals >72months reduced the time to detection by one year compared to the baseline model, but would incur a high financial cost, e.g. testing HS animals >72months of age for 14 years would entail approximately 50.4 million additional tests. A limitation of the results is that there is no guarantee that current detection methods, optimised for detection of classical BSE, would identify a novel prion disease in cattle and it is currently difficult to envisage plausible routes by which a re-emergence of classical BSE could occur in Europe.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases born after the total feed ban.

Sixty bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases of Classical or unknown type (BARB-60 cases) were born after the date of entry into force of the EU total feed ban on 1 January 2001. The European Commission has requested EFSA to provide a scientific opinion on the most likely origin(s) of these BARB-60 cases; whether feeding with material contaminated with the BSE agent can be excluded as the origin of any of these cases and, if so, whether there is enough scientific evidence to conclude that such cases had a spontaneous origin. The source of infection cannot be ascertained at the individual level for any BSE case, including these BARB-60 cases, so uncertainty remains high about the origin of disease in each of these animals, but when compared with other biologically plausible sources of infection (maternal, environmental, genetic, iatrogenic), feed-borne exposure is the most likely. This exposure was apparently excluded for only one of these BARB-60 cases. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the data collected through the field investigation of these cases, due to a time span of several years between the potential exposure of the animal and the confirmation of disease, recall difficulty, and the general paucity of documented objective evidence available in the farms at the time of the investigation. Thus, feeding with material contaminated with the BSE agent cannot be excluded as the origin of any of the BARB-60 cases, nor is it possible to definitively attribute feed as the cause of any of the BARB-60 cases. A case of disease is classified as spontaneous by a process of elimination, excluding all other definable possibilities; with regard to the BARB-60 cases, it is not possible to conclude that any of them had a spontaneous origin.

Assessing the sensitivity of European surveillance for detecting BSE in cattle according to international standards.

European surveillance for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), initiated in 2001, has shown a steady exponential decline in the number of infected cattle, demonstrating that control measures have been effective. In 2016 23 European countries out of 28 demonstrated negligible risk status for the disease. The international standard setting body, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), prescribes that for countries where there is a non-negligible BSE risk, surveillance should allow the detection of one case per 100,000 in the adult cattle population with 95% confidence (Type A surveillance). The Cattle TSE Monitoring Model (C-TSEMM) was developed to estimate the sensitivity of surveillance systems to detect BSE in cattle. The model includes a cohort-based back calculation model to estimate the number and age of infected animals, the subset of those that are detectable by the diagnostic test, and the stream by which infected animals exit the standing population, that is, healthy slaughter, emergency slaughter, fallen stock and clinical suspects. Data collected by the European Commission (EC) and European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), containing the details of over 91 million cattle tested within the European Member States (EU25) surveillance scheme from 2002 to 2011, was used to populate the model. When considering the EU25 surveillance scheme as a single epidemiological unit, the model estimated that the surveillance scheme in place exceeded the OIE required threshold for Type A surveillance, and that a revised monitoring system excluding all healthy slaughter animals would also exceed this threshold. Results indicated a variation in individual country sensitivity of surveillance with seven countries (Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Poland and the UK) exceeding the required threshold individually. Key assumptions included the fitting of an exponential distribution for all countries to describe the decline in prevalence over time and, for those members with no detected cases of BSE, an estimated area prevalence was used as a proxy. These results were part of the evidence base that lifted the testing requirement for healthy slaughter animals in European countries in 2013. The model has been maintained and updated by EFSA each year with the addition of new member states, and updated surveillance data.

A quantitative assessment of the amount of prion diverted to Category 1 materials and wastewater during processing.

In this article the development and parameterization of a quantitative assessment is described that estimates the amount of TSE infectivity that is present in a whole animal carcass (bovine spongiform encephalopathy [BSE] for cattle and classical/atypical scrapie for sheep and lambs) and the amounts that subsequently fall to the floor during processing at facilities that handle specified risk material (SRM). BSE in cattle was found to contain the most oral doses, with a mean of 9864 BO ID50 s (310, 38840) in a whole carcass compared to a mean of 1851 OO ID50 s (600, 4070) and 614 OO ID50 s (155, 1509) for a sheep infected with classical and atypical scrapie, respectively. Lambs contained the least infectivity with a mean of 251 OO ID50 s (83, 548) for classical scrapie and 1 OO ID50 s (0.2, 2) for atypical scrapie. The highest amounts of infectivity falling to the floor and entering the drains from slaughtering a whole carcass at SRM facilities were found to be from cattle infected with BSE at rendering and large incineration facilities with 7.4 BO ID50 s (0.1, 29), intermediate plants and small incinerators with a mean of 4.5 BO ID50 s (0.1, 18), and collection centers, 3.6 BO ID50 s (0.1, 14). The lowest amounts entering drains are from lambs infected with classical and atypical scrapie at intermediate plants and atypical scrapie at collection centers with a mean of 3 × 10(-7) OO ID50 s (2 × 10(-8) , 1 × 10(-6) ) per carcass. The results of this model provide key inputs for the model in the companion paper published here.

A quantitative assessment of the prion risk associated with wastewater from carcass-handling facilities.

Wastewater from facilities processing livestock that may harbor transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) infectivity is permitted under license for application to land where susceptible livestock may have access. Several previous risk assessments have investigated the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) associated with wastewater effluents; however, the risk of exposure to classical scrapie and atypical scrapie has not been assessed. With the prevalence of certain TSEs (BSE in cattle and classical scrapie in sheep) steadily in decline, and with considerable changes in the structure of carcass-processing industries in Great Britain, a reappraisal of the TSE risk posed by wastewater is required. Our results indicate that the predicted number of new TSE infections arising from the spreading of wastewater on pasture over one year would be low, with a mean of one infection every 1,000 years for BSE in cattle (769, 555,556), and one infection every 30 years (16, 2,500), and 33 years (16, 3,333) for classical and atypical scrapie, respectively. It is assumed that the values and assumptions used in this risk assessment remain constant. For BSE in cattle the main contributors are abattoir and rendering effluent, contributing 35% and 22% of the total number of new BSE infections. For TSEs in sheep, effluent from small incinerators and rendering plants are the major contributors (on average 32% and 31% of the total number of new classical scrapie and atypical scrapie infections). This is a reflection of the volume of carcass material and Category 1 material flow through such facilities.

Assessing the risks of West Nile virus-infected mosquitoes from transatlantic aircraft: implications for disease emergence in the United Kingdom.

The number of West Nile virus (WNV)-infected mosquitoes aboard aircraft from the United States that arrive in the United Kingdom each summer was determined using a quantitative risk assessment. In the worst-case scenario, when WNV levels in mosquitoes are high (at epidemic levels) the probability of at least one WNV-infected mosquito being introduced into the United Kingdom was predicted to be 0.99. During these periods, a mean of 5.2 infected mosquitoes were estimated to be aboard flights from the United States to the United Kingdom during May to October, with 90% certainty that the exact value lies between one and ten mosquitoes. Heathrow airport was predicted to receive the majority of the infected mosquitoes (72.1%). Spatial analysis revealed the region surrounding Heathrow satisfies the criteria for potential WNV exposure as both WNV-competent mosquitoes and susceptible wild bird species are present. This region is, therefore, recommended for targeted, risk-based surveillance of WNV-infected mosquitoes in addition to an increased awareness of the risks to horses, birds and humans.

Exposure assessment of TSEs from the landspreading of meat and bone meal.

Recent changes in European legislation have meant that certain processed abattoir waste, which has been appropriately heat treated and ground to a specified particle size, can be spread on nonpasture agricultural land. This has opened the way for the potential landspreading of mammalian meat and bone meal (mMBM) derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption. This article reports on two separate case studies (Study 1 carried out in Great Britain (GB) and Study 2 carried out in Ireland) on the potential exposure to TSE infectivity following the spreading of abattoir waste (derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption) on nonpasture agricultural land. For Study 1, the average TSE infectivity on nonpasture agricultural land per year from sheep with scrapie was found to be higher (five orders of magnitude) than that estimated for BSE in cattle (3.9 x 10(-3) Ovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil compared to 3.3 x 10(-8) Bovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil). The mean estimate for BSE in sheep was 8.1 x 10(-6) Ovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil. The mean level of infectivity in mMBM was assessed to be 1.2 x 10(-5) and 2.36 x 10(-5) ID(50)/ton of mMBM for Study 1 and 2, respectively. For Study 2 the spreading of mMBM was estimated to result in infectivity on nonpasture land of 1.62 x 10(-8) Bovine Oral ID(50)/m(3). The mean simulated probability of infection per year per bovine animal was 1.11 x 10(-9). Given the low infectivity density and corresponding low risks to bovines the spreading of mMBM could be considered a viable alternative for the utilization of mMBM.

A quantitative assessment of the risks from illegally imported meat contaminated with foot and mouth disease virus to Great Britain.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.