Machine learning models for assessing risk factors affecting health care costs: 12-month exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation.

Introduction: Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (ECR) has proven to be effective and cost-effective dominant treatment option in health care. However, the contribution of well-known risk factors for prognosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) to predict health care costs is not well recognized. Since machine learning (ML) applications are rapidly giving new opportunities to assist health care professionals' work, we used selected ML tools to assess the predictive value of defined risk factors for health care costs during 12-month ECR in patients with CAD. Methods: The data for analysis was available from a total of 71 patients referred to Oulu University Hospital, Finland, due to an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) event (75% men, age 61 ± 12 years, BMI 27 ± 4 kg/m2, ejection fraction 62 ± 8, 89% have beta-blocker medication). Risk factors were assessed at the hospital immediately after the cardiac event, and health care costs for all reasons were collected from patient registers over a year. ECR was programmed in accordance with international guidelines. Risk analysis algorithms (cross-decomposition algorithms) were employed to rank risk factors based on variances in their effects. Regression analysis was used to determine the accounting value of risk factors by entering first the risk factor with the highest degree of explanation into the model. After that, the next most potent risk factor explaining costs was added to the model one by one (13 forecast models in total). Results: The ECR group used health care services during the year at an average of 1,624 ± 2,139€ per patient. Diabetes exhibited the strongest correlation with health care expenses (r = 0.406), accounting for 16% of the total costs (p < 0.001). When the next two ranked markers (body mass index; r = 0.171 and systolic blood pressure; r = - 0.162, respectively) were added to the model, the predictive value was 18% for the costs (p = 0.004). The depression scale had the weakest independent explanation rate of all 13 risk factors (explanation value 0.1%, r = 0.029, p = 0.811). Discussion: Presence of diabetes is the primary reason forecasting health care costs in 12-month ECR intervention among ACS patients. The ML tools may help decision-making when planning the optimal allocation of health care resources.

Machine learning models in predicting health care costs in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome: A prospective pilot study.

Background: Health care budgets are limited, requiring the optimal use of resources. Machine learning (ML) methods may have an enormous potential for effective use of health care resources. Objective: We assessed the applicability of selected ML tools to evaluate the contribution of known risk markers for prognosis of coronary artery disease to predict health care costs for all reasons in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome (n = 65, aged 65 ± 9 years) for 1-year follow-up. Methods: Risk markers were assessed at baseline, and health care costs were collected from electronic health registries. The Cross-decomposition algorithms were used to rank the considered risk markers based on their impacts on variances. Then regression analysis was performed to predict costs by entering the first top-ranking risk marker and adding the next-best markers, one by one, to build up altogether 13 predictive models. Results: The average annual health care costs were €2601 ± €5378 per patient. The Depression Scale showed the highest predictive value (r = 0.395), accounting for 16% of the costs (P = .001). When the next 2 ranked markers (LDL cholesterol, r = 0.230; and left ventricular ejection fraction, r = -0.227, respectively) were added to the model, the predictive value was 24% for the costs (P = .001). Conclusion: Higher depression score is the primary variable forecasting health care costs in 1-year follow-up among acute coronary syndrome patients. The ML tools may help decision-making when planning optimal utilization of treatment strategies.

Interactive multiobjective optimization for finding the most preferred exercise therapy modality in knee osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: There are no explicit guidelines or tools available to support clinicians in selecting exercise therapy modalities according to the characteristics of individual patients despite the apparent need. OBJECTIVE: This study develops a methodology based on a novel multiobjective optimization model and examines its feasibility as a decision support tool to support healthcare professionals in comparing different modalities and identifying the most preferred one based on a patient's needs. METHODS: Thirty-one exercise therapy modalities were considered from 21 randomized controlled trials. A novel interactive multiobjective optimization model was designed to characterize the efficacy of an exercise therapy modality based on five objectives: minimizing cost, maximizing pain reduction, maximizing disability improvement, minimizing the number of supervised sessions, and minimizing the length of the treatment period. An interactive model incorporates clinicians' preferences in finding the most preferred exercise therapy modality for each need. Multiobjective optimization methods are mathematical algorithms designed to identify the optimal balance between multiple conflicting objectives among available solutions/alternatives. They explicitly evaluate the conflicting objectives and support decision-makers in identifying the best balance. An experienced research-oriented physiotherapist was involved as a decision-maker in the interactive solution process testing the proposed decision support tool. RESULTS: The proposed methodology design and interactive process of the tool, including preference information, graphs, and exercise suggestions following the preferences, can help clinicians to find the most preferred exercise therapy modality based on a patient's needs and health status; paving the way to individualize recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: We examined the feasibility of our decision support tool using an interactive multiobjective optimization method designed to help clinicians balance between conflicting objectives to find the most preferred exercise therapy modality for patients with knee osteoarthritis. The proposed methodology is generic enough to be applied in any field of medical and healthcare settings, where several alternative treatment options exist.KEY MESSAGESWe demonstrate the potential of applying Interactive multiobjective optimization methods in a decision support tool to help clinicians compare different exercise therapy modalities and identify the most preferred one based on a patient's needs.The usability of the proposed decision support tool is tested and demonstrated in prescribing exercise therapy modalities to treat knee osteoarthritis patients.