Forecasting New Tuberculosis Cases in Malaysia: A Time-Series Study Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model.

Background The application of the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely employed in predicting cases of infectious diseases. It has shown a positive impact on public health early warning surveillance due to its capability in producing reliable forecasting values. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for new tuberculosis (TB) cases using time-series data from January 2013 to December 2018 in Malaysia and to forecast monthly new TB cases for 2019. Materials and methods The ARIMA model was executed using data gathered between January 2013 and December 2018 in Malaysia. Subsequently, the well-fitted model was employed to make projections for new TB cases in the year 2019. To assess the efficacy of the model, two key metrics were utilized: the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and stationary R-squared. Furthermore, the sufficiency of the model was validated via the Ljung-Box test. Results The results of this study revealed that the ARIMA (2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 model proved to be the most suitable choice, exhibiting the lowest MAPE value of 6.762. The new TB cases showed a clear seasonality with two peaks occurring in March and December. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 55.8% with a p-value (Ljung-Box test) of 0.356. Conclusions The application of the ARIMA model has developed a simple, precise, and low-cost forecasting model that provides a warning six months in advance for monitoring the TB epidemic in Malaysia, which exhibits a seasonal pattern.

Factors Associated With Nosocomial COVID-19 Infection Among Health Care Workers in an Urban-Setting Malaysia Hospital.

This single-center study aimed to explore the factors associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in a hospital. All laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases among health care workers (HCWs) in a tertiary hospital in Malaysia were analyzed cross-sectionally from January 25, 2020, to September 10, 2021. A total of 897 HCWs in the hospital had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection during the study period. Around 37.4% of HCWs were suspected to acquire COVID-19 infection from the hospital workplace. Factors associated with lower odds of workplace COVID-19 transmission were being females, ≥30 years old, fully vaccinated, and working as clinical support staff. Involvement in COVID-19 patient care was significantly associated with higher odds (adjusted odds ratio = 3.53) of workplace COVID-19 transmission as compared with non-workplace transmission. Most HCWs in the tertiary hospital acquired COVID-19 infection from non-workplace settings. During a pandemic, it is important to communicate with HCWs about the risk of both workplace and non-workplace COVID-19 transmission and to implement measures to reduce both workplace and non-workplace COVID-19 transmission.

Prevalence of seizures in brain tumor: A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Prevalence of seizures in brain tumors vary substantially between studies even with similar histopathological types. We aimed to identify the seizure prevalence of the commonest types of brain tumors. METHODS: Systematic computerized search of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were performed. The meta-analysis of pooled prevalence and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for tumor-related seizures were calculated by using a random effect model. Based on the 2014 epilepsy definition, a mean seizure prevalence of 60 % is used to indicate high seizure prevalence in this study. RESULTS: 74 studies that reported seizure prevalence with 23,116 patients were included in this meta-analysis. These tumors has higher seizure incidence rate (at least 60 %) with pooled prevalence of 63 % for adult with low-grade astrocytoma (95 % CI: 57-68 %), 65 % for oligodendroglioma (95% CI: 57-72 %), 72 % for oligoastrocytoma (95 % CI: 67-77 %), 81 % for ganglioglioma (95 % CI: 66-97 %) and 94 % for DNET (94 % CI: 83-100 %). CONCLUSION: This study highlights the type of brain tumors that carry a high seizure prevalence. Screening for subtle seizures and early management of seizures may be beneficial in patients with low-grade astrocytoma (adult), oligodendroglioma, oligoastrocytoma, ganglioglioma or DNET brain tumor.

Propagation of a hospital-associated cluster of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals are vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks. Intrahospital transmission of the disease is a threat to the healthcare systems as it increases morbidity and mortality among patients. It is imperative to deepen our understanding of transmission events in hospital-associated cases of COVID-19 for timely implementation of infection prevention and control measures in the hospital in avoiding future outbreaks. We examined the use of epidemiological case investigation combined with whole genome sequencing of cases to investigate and manage a hospital-associated cluster of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: An epidemiological investigation was conducted in a University Hospital in Malaysia from 23 March to 22 April 2020. Contact tracing, risk assessment, testing, symptom surveillance, and outbreak management were conducted following the diagnosis of a healthcare worker with SARS-CoV-2 by real-time PCR. These findings were complemented by whole genome sequencing analysis of a subset of positive cases. RESULTS: The index case was symptomatic but did not fulfill the initial epidemiological criteria for routine screening. Contact tracing suggested epidemiological linkages of 38 cases with COVID-19. Phylogenetic analysis excluded four of these cases. This cluster included 34 cases comprising ten healthcare worker-cases, nine patient-cases, and 15 community-cases. The epidemic curve demonstrated initial intrahospital transmission that propagated into the community. The estimated median incubation period was 4.7 days (95% CI: 3.5-6.4), and the serial interval was 5.3 days (95% CI: 4.3-6.5). CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the contribution of integrating epidemiological investigation and whole genome sequencing in understanding disease transmission in the hospital setting. Contact tracing, risk assessment, testing, and symptom surveillance remain imperative in resource-limited settings to identify and isolate cases, thereby controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. The use of whole genome sequencing complements field investigation findings in clarifying transmission networks. The safety of a hospital population during this COVID-19 pandemic may be secured with a multidisciplinary approach, good infection control measures, effective preparedness and response plan, and individual-level compliance among the hospital population.

Implementation of a COVID-19 surveillance programme for healthcare workers in a teaching hospital in an upper-middle-income country.

INTRODUCTION: The reporting of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) mortality among healthcare workers highlights their vulnerability in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Some low- and middle-income countries have highlighted the challenges with COVID-19 testing, such as inadequate capacity, untrained laboratory personnel, and inadequate funding. This article describes the components and implementation of a healthcare worker surveillance programme in a designated COVID-19 teaching hospital in Malaysia. In addition, the distribution and characteristics of healthcare workers placed under surveillance are described. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A COVID-19 healthcare worker surveillance programme was implemented in University Malaya Medical Centre. The programme involved four teams: contact tracing, risk assessment, surveillance and outbreak investigation. Daily symptom surveillance was conducted over fourteen days for healthcare workers who were assessed to have low-, moderate- and high-risk of contracting COVID-19. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted for data collected over 24 weeks, from the 6th of March 2020 to the 20th of August 2020. RESULTS: A total of 1,174 healthcare workers were placed under surveillance. The majority were females (71.6%), aged between 25 and 34 years old (64.7%), were nursing staff (46.9%) and had no comorbidities (88.8%). A total of 70.9% were categorised as low-risk, 25.7% were moderate-risk, and 3.4% were at high risk of contracting COVID-19. One-third (35.2%) were symptomatic, with the sore throat (23.6%), cough (19.8%) and fever (5.0%) being the most commonly reported symptoms. A total of 17 healthcare workers tested positive for COVID-19, with a prevalence of 0.3% among all the healthcare workers. Risk category and presence of symptoms were associated with a positive COVID-19 test (p<0.001). Fever (p<0.001), cough (p = 0.003), shortness of breath (p = 0.015) and sore throat (p = 0.002) were associated with case positivity. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 symptom surveillance and risk-based assessment have merits to be included in a healthcare worker surveillance programme to safeguard the health of the workforce.

Gravid oviposition sticky trap and dengue non-structural 1 antigen test for early surveillance of dengue in multi-storey dwellings: study protocol of a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a global disease, transmitted by the Aedes vectors. In 2018, there were 80 615 dengue cases with 147 deaths in Malaysia. Currently, the nationwide surveillance programs are dependent on Aedes larval surveys and notifications of lab-confirmed human infections. The existing, reactive programs appear to lack sensitivity and proactivity. More efficient dengue vector surveillance/control methods are needed. METHODS: A parallel, cluster, randomized controlled, interventional trial is being conducted for 18 months in Damansara Damai, Selangor, Malaysia, to determine the efficacy of using gravid oviposition sticky (GOS) trap and dengue non-structural 1 (NS1) antigen test for early surveillance of dengue among Aedes mosquitoes to reduce dengue outbreaks. Eight residential apartments were randomly assigned into intervention and control arms. GOS traps are set at the apartments to collect Aedes weekly, following which dengue NS1 antigen is detected in these mosquitoes. When a dengue-positive mosquito is detected, the community will be advised to execute vector search-and-destroy and protective measures. The primary outcome concerns the the percentage change in the (i) number of dengue cases and (ii) durations of dengue outbreaks. Whereas other outcome measures include the change in density threshold of Aedes and changes in dengue-related knowledge, attitude and practice among cluster inhabitants. DISCUSSION: This is a proactive and early dengue surveillance in the mosquito vector that does not rely on notification of dengue cases. Surveillance using the GOS traps should be able to efficiently provide sufficient coverage for multistorey dwellings where population per unit area is likely to be higher. Furthermore, trapping dengue-infected mosquitoes using the GOS trap, helps to halt the dengue transmission carried by the mosquito. It is envisaged that the results of this randomized controlled trial will provide a new proactive, cheap and targeted surveillance tool for the prevention and control of dengue outbreaks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This is a parallel-cluster, randomized controlled, interventional trial, registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT03799237), on 8th January 2019 (retrospectively registered).

Adherence to Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) management of dengue infection in adults (revised 2nd edition).

The Malaysian Dengue Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) have been developed to provide evidence-based guidance in the management of dengue infections. The use of these guidelines is essential to ensure its recommendations are being practiced. However, the adherence to the guidelines for management of dengue (revised 2nd edition) by healthcare providers still remains unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the proportion among healthcare providers that adhere to this Dengue CPG. A retrospective cohort study of dengue cases registered from 1 January 2014 to 1 June 2015 was conducted in public hospitals and health clinics in Selangor, Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur. Adherence to the CPG recommendations were recorded by reviewing patients' case notes. Overall proportion of adherence in clinical components of the recommendation were (7.1 to 100.0% versus 7.7 to 73.8%) in history taking, (6.7 to 100.0% versus 12.3 to 60.0%) in physical examinations, (18.4 to 100.0% versus 23.1 to 83.2%) in assessment of warning signs, (0.6 to 100.0% versus 12.3 to 87.7%) in assessment of haemodynamic status, (60.0 to 100.0% versus 27.7 to 40.0%) in diagnosis, (46.6 to 80.0% versus 52.3%) in case notifications, (73.2 to 100.0% versus 89.2 to 96.9%) in performing specific laboratory investigations and (7.9 to 100.0% versus 21.5%) in monitoring, for outpatient versus inpatient, respectively. Adherence trends were demonstrated to be higher in hospital settings compared to outpatient settings. Adherence to this Dengue CPG varies widely with overall good clinical outcomes observed.