Maritime transport and regional climate change impacts in large EU islands and archipelagos.

Maritime transport is a vital sector for global trade and the world economy. Particularly for islands, there is also an important social dimension of this sector, since island communities strongly rely on it for a connection with the mainland and the transportation of goods and passengers. Furthermore, islands are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, as the rising sea level and extreme events are expected to induce severe impacts. Such hazards are anticipated to also affect the operations of the maritime transport sector by affecting either the port infrastructure or ships en route. The present study is an effort to better comprehend and assess the future risk of maritime transport disruption in six European islands and archipelagos, and it aims at supporting regional to local policy and decision-making. We employ state-of-the-art regional climate datasets and the widely used impact chain approach to identify the different components that might drive such risks. Larger islands (e.g., Corsica, Cyprus and Crete) are found to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change on maritime operations. Our findings also highlight the importance of adopting a low-emission pathway, since this will keep the risk of maritime transport disruption similar to present levels or even slightly decreased for some islands because of an enhanced adaptation capacity and advantageous demographic changes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41207-023-00370-6.

Genomic profiling of climate adaptation in Aedes aegypti along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal indicates nongradual expansion of the disease vector.

Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion. By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Aedes aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal (200-1300 m), we identify putatively adaptive traits and describe the species' genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two differentiated clusters with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300 m) and all other lowland populations (≤800 m). We revealed nonsynonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern. Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. Local high-altitude adaptation could be one explanation of the population's phenotypic cold tolerance. Carrying alleles relevant for survival under colder climate increases the likelihood of this highland population to a worldwide expansion into other colder ecoregions.

The ecophysiological plasticity of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus concerning overwintering in cooler ecoregions is driven by local climate and acclimation capacity.

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus transmit diseases such as dengue, and are of major public health concern. Driven by climate change and global trade/travel both species have recently spread to new tropic/subtropic regions and Ae. albopictus also to temperate ecoregions. The capacity of both species to adapt to new environments depends on their ecophysiological plasticity, which is the width of functional niches where a species can survive. Mechanistic distribution models often neglect to incorporate ecophysiological plasticity especially in regards to overwintering capacity in cooler habitats. To portray the ecophysiological plasticity concerning overwintering capability, we conducted temperature experiments with multiple populations of both species originating from an altitudinal gradient in South Asia and tested as follows: the cold tolerance of eggs (-2 °C- 8 days and - 6 °C- 2 days) without and with an experimental winter onset (acclimation: 10 °C- 60 days), differences between a South Asian and a European Ae. albopictus population and the temperature response in life cycles (13 °C, 18 °C, 23 °C, 28 °C). Ecophysiological plasticity in overwintering capacity in Ae. aegypti is high in populations originating from low altitude and in Ae. albopictus populations from high altitude. Overall, ecophysiological plasticity is higher in Ae. albopictus compared to Ae. aegypti. In both species acclimation and in Ae. albopictus temperate continental origin had a huge positive effect on survival. Our results indicate that future mechanistic prediction models can include data on winter survivorship of both, tropic and subtropic Ae. aegypti, whereas for Ae. albopictus this depends on the respective temperate, tropical region the model is focusing on. Future research should address cold tolerance in multiple populations worldwide to evaluate the full potential of the ecophysiological plasticity in the two species. Furthermore, we found that Ae. aegypti can survive winter cold especially when acclimated and will probably further spread to colder ecoregions driven by climate change.

Does winter cold really limit the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Europe?

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti is a potential vector for several arboviruses including dengue and Zika viruses. The species seems to be restricted to subtropical/tropical habitats and has difficulties in establishing permanent populations in southern Europe, probably due to constraints during the winter season. The aim of this study was to systematically analyze the cold tolerance (CT) of Ae. aegypti in its most cold-resistant life stage, the eggs. METHODS: The CT of Ae. aegypti eggs was compared with that of Ae. albopictus which is well established in large parts of Europe. By systematically studying the literature (meta-analysis), we recognized that CT has been rarely tested in Ae. aegypti eggs, but eggs can survive at zero and sub-zero temperatures for certain exposure periods. To overcome potential bias from experimental differences between studies, we then conducted species comparisons using a harmonized high-resolution CT measuring method. From subtropical populations of the same origin, the survival (hatching in %) and emergence of adults of both species were measured after zero and sub-zero temperature exposures for up to 9 days (3 °C, 0 °C and - 2 °C: ≤ 9 days; - 6 °C: ≤ 2 days). RESULTS: Our data show that Ae. aegypti eggs can survive low and sub-zero temperatures for a short time period similar to or even better than those of Ae. albopictus. Moreover, after short sub-zero exposures of eggs of both species, individuals still developed into viable adults (Ae. aegypti: 3 adults emerged after 6 days at - 2 °C, Ae. albopictus: 1 adult emerged after 1 day at - 6 °C). CONCLUSIONS: Thus, both the literature and the present experimental data indicate that a cold winter may not be the preventing factor for the re-establishment of the dengue vector Ae. aegypti in southern Europe.

Causative classification of river flood events.

A wide variety of processes controls the time of occurrence, duration, extent, and severity of river floods. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in enhancing the accuracy of local and regional flood frequency estimates and support the detection and interpretation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper provides a critical review of existing causative classifications of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events, discusses their validity and applications, and identifies opportunities for moving toward more comprehensive approaches. So far no unified definition of causative mechanisms of flood events exists. Existing frameworks for classification of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events adopt different perspectives: hydroclimatic (large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric state at the time of the event), hydrological (catchment scale precipitation patterns and antecedent catchment state), and hydrograph-based (indirectly considering generating mechanisms through their effects on hydrograph characteristics). All of these approaches intend to capture the flood generating mechanisms and are useful for characterizing the flood processes at various spatial and temporal scales. However, uncertainty analyses with respect to indicators, classification methods, and data to assess the robustness of the classification are rarely performed which limits the transferability across different geographic regions. It is argued that more rigorous testing is needed. There are opportunities for extending classification methods to include indicators of space-time dynamics of rainfall, antecedent wetness, and routing effects, which will make the classification schemes even more useful for understanding and estimating floods. This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Water ExtremesScience of Water > Hydrological ProcessesScience of Water > Methods.

Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal--A Systematic Synthesis of Literature.

BACKGROUND: Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. METHODOLOGY: A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. CONCLUSION: Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.

Risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), their altitudinal distribution and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal.

BACKGROUND: The presence of the recently introduced primary dengue virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in Nepal, in association with the likely indigenous secondary vector Aedes albopictus, raises public health concerns. Chikungunya fever cases have also been reported in Nepal, and the virus causing this disease is also transmitted by these mosquito species. Here we report the results of a study on the risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors, their elevational ceiling of distribution, and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We collected immature stages of mosquitoes during six monthly cross-sectional surveys covering six administrative districts along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal that extended from Birgunj (80 m above sea level [asl]) to Dhunche (highest altitude sampled: 2,100 m asl). The dengue vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were commonly found up to 1,350 m asl in Kathmandu valley and were present but rarely found from 1,750 to 2,100 m asl in Dhunche. The lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was commonly found throughout the study transect. Physiographic region, month of collection, collection station and container type were significant predictors of the occurrence and co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were significant predictors of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors abundance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that chikungunya and dengue virus vectors have already established their populations up to the High Mountain region of Nepal and that this may be attributed to the environmental and climate change that has been observed over the decades in Nepal. The rapid expansion of the distribution of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region, previously considered to be non-endemic for dengue and chikungunya fever, calls for urgent actions to protect the health of local people and tourists travelling in the central Himalayas.

Species composition, seasonal occurrence, habitat preference and altitudinal distribution of malaria and other disease vectors in eastern Nepal.

BACKGROUND: It is increasingly recognized that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) with shifts of disease vectors to higher altitudes and latitudes. In particular, an increasing risk of malaria and dengue fever epidemics in tropical highlands and temperate regions has been predicted in different climate change scenarios. The aim of this paper is to expand the current knowledge on the seasonal occurrence and altitudinal distribution of malaria and other disease vectors in eastern Nepal. METHODS: Adult mosquitoes resting indoors and outdoors were collected using CDC light trap and aspirators with the support of flash light. Mosquito larvae were collected using locally constructed dippers. We assessed the local residents' perceptions of the distribution and occurrence of mosquitoes using key informant interview techniques. Generalized linear models were fitted to assess the effect of season, resting site and topography on the abundance of malaria vectors. RESULTS: The known malaria vectors in Nepal, Anopheles fluviatilis, Anopheles annularis and Anopheles maculatus complex members were recorded from 70 to 1,820 m above sea level (asl). The vectors of chikungunya and dengue virus, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, the vector of lymphatic filariasis, Culex quinquefasciatus, and that of Japanese encephalitis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, were found from 70 to 2,000 m asl in eastern Nepal. Larvae of Anopheles, Culex and Aedes species were recorded up to 2,310 m asl. Only season had a significant effect on the abundance of An. fluviatilis, season and resting site on the abundance of An. maculatus complex members, and season, resting site and topography on the abundance of An. annularis. The perceptions of people on mosquito occurrence are consistent with entomological findings. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first vertical distribution records of vector mosquitoes in eastern Nepal and suggests that the vectors of malaria and other diseases have already established populations in the highlands due to climatic and other environmental changes. As VBD control programmes have not been focused on the highlands of Nepal, these findings call for actions to start monitoring, surveillance and research on VBDs in these previously disease-free, densely populated and economically important regions.

Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector-control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade, the incidence of confirmed malaria has declined significantly in Nepal. The aim of this paper is to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal. METHODS: Hotspot analysis was used to visualize the spatio-temporal variation of malaria incidence over the years at village level and generalized additive mixed models were fitted to assess the association of malaria incidence with climatic variables and vector control interventions. RESULTS: Opposing trends of malaria incidence were observed in two high-risk malaria districts of eastern and far-western Nepal after the introduction of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The confirmed malaria incidence was reduced from 2.24 per 10,000 in 2007 to 0.31 per 10,000 population in 2011 in Morang district but increased from 3.38 to 8.29 per 10,000 population in Kailali district. Malaria hotspots persisted mostly in the same villages of Kailali district, whereas in Morang district malaria hotspots shifted to new villages after the introduction of LLINs. A 1° C increase in minimum and mean temperatures increased malaria incidence by 27% (RR =1.27, 95% CI =1.12-1.45) and 25% (RR =1.25, 95% CI =1.11-1.43), respectively. The reduction in malaria incidence was 25% per one unit increase of LLINs (RR =0.75, 95% CI =0.62-0.92). The incidence of malaria was 82% lower in Morang than in Kailali district (RR =0.18, 95% CI =0.11-0.33). CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest that LLIN coverage should be scaled up to entire districts rather than high-incidence foci only. Climatic factors should be considered for malaria micro-stratification, mosquito repellents should be prescribed for those living in forests, forest fringe and foothills and have regular visits to forests, and imported cases should be controlled by establishing fever check posts at border crossings.

Malaria control in Nepal 1963-2012: challenges on the path towards elimination.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is still a priority public health problem of Nepal where about 84% of the population are at risk. The aim of this paper is to highlight the past and present malaria situation in this country and its challenges for long-term malaria elimination strategies. METHODS: Malariometric indicator data of Nepal recorded through routine surveillance of health facilities for the years between 1963 and 2012 were compiled. Trends and differences in malaria indicator data were analysed. RESULTS: The trend of confirmed malaria cases in Nepal between 1963 and 2012 shows fluctuation, with a peak in 1985 when the number exceeded 42,321, representing the highest malaria case-load ever recorded in Nepal. This was followed by a steep declining trend of malaria with some major outbreaks. Nepal has made significant progress in controlling malaria transmission over the past decade: total confirmed malaria cases declined by 84% (12,750 in 2002 vs 2,092 in 2012), and there was only one reported death in 2012. Based on the evaluation of the National Malaria Control Programme in 2010, Nepal recently adopted a long-term malaria elimination strategy for the years 2011-2026 with the ambitious vision of a malaria-free Nepal by 2026. However, there has been an increasing trend of Plasmodium falciparum and imported malaria proportions in the last decade. Furthermore, the analysis of malariometric indicators of 31 malaria-risk districts between 2004 and 2012 shows a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of confirmed malaria and of Plasmodium vivax, but not in the incidence of P. falciparum and clinically suspected malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the achievements the country has made over the last decade, Nepal is preparing to move towards malaria elimination by 2026. However, considerable challenges lie ahead. These include especially, the need to improve access to diagnostic facilities to confirm clinically suspected cases and their treatment, the development of resistance in parasites and vectors, climate change, and increasing numbers of imported cases from a porous border with India. Therefore, caution is needed before the country embarks towards malaria elimination.

Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach.

This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5°C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9°C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (~3.2°C) and an overall increase (~8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one.