Data-driven malaria prevalence prediction in large densely populated urban holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa.

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 104 participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10-2, MSE ≤ 7 × 10-3, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways.

Assessment of PMTCT Success Rates Based on Antiretroviral Interventions and Feeding Options: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The success of any prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) program is assessed by the proportion of HIV-exposed infants that sero-convert at the end of all risk exposures. Although adopting the best feeding option for HIV-exposed infants is one of the factors that impact PMTCT outcomes, there is limited data on the assessment of PMTCT success rates based on antiretroviral interventions and feeding options. This study assesses the success rate of PMTCT service based on antiretroviral interventions and feeding options. METHODS: Eighty-five HIV-infected mothers previously in care were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Folders and structured questionnaires were used to extract data on mother-infant pair and the first CD4, count of infected mothers on enrolment at PMTCT clinic. Dry blood spot samples were obtained from exposed infants for early infant diagnosis. Results were analyzed using the SPSS software. RESULTS: The mean age of enrolled mothers was 31.3 ± 4.4 years, and an average CD4+ T-lymphocyte count of 368.6 ± 216.2 cells/µl. Seven (8.2%) of the HIV-exposed infants were positive for HIV-1 based on early infant diagnosis results. Overall PMTCT success rate (PMTCTSR) was 91.8%. HIV-1 prevalence of 5.0%, 0% and 21.1% was found among infants of patients who opted for breastfeeding, replacement feeding, and mixed feeding respectively thus yielding PMTCT success rates of 95%, 100% and 78.9%. Pediatric antiretroviral interventions success rates in HIV-exposed infants was 95.8%, 80.0% and 66.7% based on age groups ≤ 6 months, > 6 ≤ 12 months, and > 12 ≤ 18 months respectively. CONCLUSION AND GLOBAL HEALTH IMPLICATIONS: Quality PMTCT service is vital for successful prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Implementation of more dynamic approaches such as adherence to option B+ guidelines in PMTCT service in our settings can further reduce mother-to-child transmission of HIV and improve outcomes.

Affinity proteomics reveals elevated muscle proteins in plasma of children with cerebral malaria.

Systemic inflammation and sequestration of parasitized erythrocytes are central processes in the pathophysiology of severe Plasmodium falciparum childhood malaria. However, it is still not understood why some children are more at risks to develop malaria complications than others. To identify human proteins in plasma related to childhood malaria syndromes, multiplex antibody suspension bead arrays were employed. Out of the 1,015 proteins analyzed in plasma from more than 700 children, 41 differed between malaria infected children and community controls, whereas 13 discriminated uncomplicated malaria from severe malaria syndromes. Markers of oxidative stress were found related to severe malaria anemia while markers of endothelial activation, platelet adhesion and muscular damage were identified in relation to children with cerebral malaria. These findings suggest the presence of generalized vascular inflammation, vascular wall modulations, activation of endothelium and unbalanced glucose metabolism in severe malaria. The increased levels of specific muscle proteins in plasma implicate potential muscle damage and microvasculature lesions during the course of cerebral malaria.

Circulatory hepcidin is associated with the anti-inflammatory response but not with iron or anemic status in childhood malaria.

Cerebral malaria (CM) and severe malarial anemia (SMA) are the most serious life-threatening clinical syndromes of Plasmodium falciparum infection in childhood. Therefore, it is important to understand the pathology underlying the development of CM and SMA as opposed to uncomplicated malaria (UM). Increased levels of hepcidin have been associated with UM, but its level and role in severe malarial disease remains to be investigated. Plasma and clinical data were obtained as part of a prospective case-control study of severe childhood malaria at the main tertiary hospital of the city of Ibadan, Nigeria. Here, we report that hepcidin levels are lower in children with SMA or CM than in those with milder outcome (UM). While different profiles of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were observed between the malaria syndromes, circulatory hepcidin levels remained associated with the levels of its regulatory cytokine interleukin-6 and of the anti-inflammatory cytokine inerleukin-10, irrespective of iron status, anemic status, and general acute-phase response. We propose a role for hepcidin in anti-inflammatory processes in childhood malaria.

Severe childhood malaria syndromes defined by plasma proteome profiles.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral malaria (CM) and severe malarial anemia (SMA) are the most serious life-threatening clinical syndromes of Plasmodium falciparum infection in childhood. Therefore it is important to understand the pathology underlying the development of CM and SMA, as opposed to uncomplicated malaria (UM). Different host responses to infection are likely to be reflected in plasma proteome-patterns that associate with clinical status and therefore provide indicators of the pathogenesis of these syndromes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Plasma and comprehensive clinical data for discovery and validation cohorts were obtained as part of a prospective case-control study of severe childhood malaria at the main tertiary hospital of the city of Ibadan, an urban and densely populated holoendemic malaria area in Nigeria. A total of 946 children participated in this study. Plasma was subjected to high-throughput proteomic profiling. Statistical pattern-recognition methods were used to find proteome-patterns that defined disease groups. Plasma proteome-patterns accurately distinguished children with CM and with SMA from those with UM, and from healthy or severely ill malaria-negative children. CONCLUSIONS: We report that an accurate definition of the major childhood malaria syndromes can be achieved using plasma proteome-patterns. Our proteomic data can be exploited to understand the pathogenesis of the different childhood severe malaria syndromes.

Haemoglobinuria among children with severe malaria attending tertiary care in Ibadan, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Haemoglobinuria is one of the manifestations of severe malaria and results from severe intravascular haemolysis. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency has been implicated in its aetiology. Haemoglobinuria may be associated with severe anaemia and, less frequently, acute renal failure. METHODS: A prospective case-control study was carried out to determine the incidence of haemoglobinuria as confirmed by dipstick urinalysis, microscopy and spectrophotometric measurement, among children with severe malaria. A total of 251 children presenting at the Children's Emergency Ward with severe malaria were recruited over a period of 21 months. The G6PD status and the outcomes of severe malaria in children with and without haemoglobinuria was studied with respect to renal failure, the recurrence of haemoglobinuria and blood pressure changes over a three-month follow-up period. RESULTS: It was found that the incidence of haemoglobinuria among children with severe malaria is 19.1%. Children <5 years constituted 76.8% of all the study patients. Patients with haemoglobinuria had median age of 52.5 months, which was significantly higher than 35 months in patients without haemoglobinuria (p=0.001). Although, haemaglobinuria was commoner among boys (54.2%) than girls (45.8%), the difference was not statistically significant. There were no significant differences between children with and without haemoglobinuria regarding their nutritional status or parasite densities. Among the clinical features of the study patients, only jaundice was significantly associated with haemoglobinuria (p=0.0001). Renal failure occurred in three out of 48 children with haemoglobinuria and in none of the 203 without. There was not recurrence of haemoglobinuria in the follow-up period. At discharge, blood pressure was elevated in six children (one previously haemoglobinuric), but all returned to normal within the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Haemoglobinuria was a prominent feature of severe malaria and it was significantly associated with jaundice at presentation. Haemoglobinuria was commoner in older children than younger children but not related to sex. G6PD deficiency was not an independent predictor of the occurrence or outcome of haemoglobinuria. Blood pressure was not affected by haemoglobinuria on admission nor during follow-up.