A Critique and Examination of the Polysocial Risk Score Approach: Predicting Cognition in the Health and Retirement Study.

Polysocial risk scores were recently proposed as a strategy to improve clinical relevance of knowledge about social determinants of health. The objective of this paper was to assess if the polysocial risk score model improves prediction of cognition and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older adults beyond simpler models including a smaller set of key social determinants of health. We used a sample of 13,773 individuals aged 50+ at baseline from the 2006 to 2018 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a US population-based longitudinal cohort. Four linear mixed models were compared: two simple models including a priori selected covariates and two polysocial risk score models which used LASSO regularization to select covariates among 9 or 21 candidate social predictors. All models included age. Predictive accuracy was assessed via R-squared and root mean-squared prediction error (RMSPE) using training/test split and cross-validation. For predicting cognition, the simple model including age, race, gender, and education had an R-squared of 0.31 and an RMSPE of 0.880. Compared with this, the most complex polysocial risk score selected 12 predictors (R-squared=0.35 and RMSPE=0.858; 2.2% improvement). For all-cause mortality, the simple model including age, race, gender, and education had an AUROC of 0.747, while the most complex polysocial risk score did not demonstrate improved performance (AUROC = 0.745). Models built on a smaller set of key social determinants performed comparably to models built on a more complex set of social "risk factors".

History of Low Hourly Wage and All-Cause Mortality Among Middle-aged Workers.

Importance: Earning a low wage is an increasingly recognized public health concern, yet little research exists on the long-term health consequences of sustained low-wage earning. Objective: To examine the association of sustained low-wage earning and mortality in a sample of workers with hourly wage reported biennially during peak midlife earning years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal study included 4002 US participants, aged 50 years or older, from 2 subcohorts of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2018) who worked for pay and reported earning hourly wages at 3 or more time points during a 12-year period during their midlife (1992-2004 or 1998-2010). Outcome follow-up occurred from the end of the respective exposure periods until 2018. Exposures: Low-wage-less than the hourly wage for full-time, full-year work at the federal poverty line-earning history was categorized as never earning a low wage, intermittently earning a low wage, and sustained earning a low wage. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cox proportional hazards and additive hazards regression models sequentially adjusted for sociodemographics, and economic and health covariates were used to estimate associations between low-wage history and all-cause mortality. We examined interaction with sex or employment stability on multiplicative and additive scales. Results: Of the 4002 workers (aged 50-57 years at the beginning of exposure period and 61-69 years at the end), 1854 (46.3%) were female; 718 (17.9%) experienced employment instability; 366 (9.1%) had a history of sustained low-wage earning; 1288 (32.2%) had intermittent low-wage earning periods; and 2348 (58.7%) had never earned a low wage. In unadjusted analyses, those who had never earned low wages experienced 199 deaths per 10 000 person-years, those with intermittent low wages, 208 deaths per 10 000 person-years, and those with sustained low wages, 275 deaths per 10 000 person-years. In models adjusted for key sociodemographic variables, sustained low-wage earning was associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07-1.71) and excess deaths (66; 95% CI, 6.6-125); these findings were attenuated with additional adjustments for economic and health covariates. Significant excess death and elevated mortality risk were observed for workers with sustained low-wage exposure and employment fluctuations (eg, for sustained low-wage × employment fluctuated, HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.35-3.53; for sustained low-wage × stable employment, HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.89,-1.54; P for interaction = .003). Conclusions and Relevance: Sustained low-wage earning may be associated with elevated mortality risk and excess deaths, especially when experienced alongside unstable employment. If causal, our findings suggest that social and economic policies that improve the financial standing of low-wage workers (eg, minimum wage laws) could improve mortality outcomes.

Association of Low Hourly Wages in Middle Age With Faster Memory Decline in Older Age: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study.

Little research has investigated the long-term relationship between low wages and memory decline, despite the growing share of low-wage workers in the US labor market. Here, we examined whether cumulative exposure to low wages over 12 years in midlife is associated with memory decline in later life. Using 1992-2016 data from the Health and Retirement Study, we analyzed data from 2,879 individuals born in 1936-1941 using confounder-adjusted linear mixed-effects models. Low-wage work was defined as an hourly wage lower than two-thirds of the federal median wage for the corresponding year and was categorized into "never," "intermittent," and "sustained" based on wages earned from 1992 to 2004. Memory function was measured at each study visit from 2004 to 2016 via a memory composite score. The confounder-adjusted annual rate of memory decline among "never" low-wage earners was -0.12 standard units (95% confidence interval: -0.13, -0.10). Compared with this, memory decline among workers with sustained earning of low midlife wages was significantly faster (ßtime×sustained = -0.014, 95% confidence interval: -0.02, -0.01), corresponding to an annual rate of -0.13 standard units for this group. Sustained low-wage earning in midlife was significantly associated with a downward trajectory of memory performance in older age. Enhancing social policies to protect low-wage workers may be especially beneficial for their cognitive health.

Awareness and attitudes towards advance care planning in primary care: role of demographic, socioeconomic and religiosity factors in a cross-sectional Lebanese study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess awareness and attitudes towards engaging in advance care planning (ACP) and their relationship with demographic, socioeconomic and religiosity factors among Lebanese middle-aged to older-aged adults in primary care. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey study. SETTING: Tertiary referral hospital in Beirut, Lebanon. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 215 middle-aged to older-aged adults. RESULTS: Out of 215 participants, 18.6% of participants knew about ACP; 94% favoured truth-telling; 87.4% favoured healthcare autonomy; 77.2% favoured documenting their own health values and preferences; and 29.3% were willing to undergo life-prolonging interventions. Among participants who were aware of ACP, 67.5% preferred ACP documentation and 85% had negative attitudes towards life-sustaining interventions. Women were more aware about ACP than men. Those who were willing to undergo life-prolonging interventions were found to be men and had higher religiosity scores. CONCLUSION: Large deficit in ACP awareness was evident despite the high preference for healthcare autonomy. Medical and public health efforts should strive to enhance patients' ACP awareness and engagement in ACP while considering factors relevant to gender, culture and religiosity.

Work Hours and Cognitive Function: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment is a public health burden. Our objective was to investigate associations between work hours and cognitive function. METHODS: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants (n = 2,497; 50.7% men; age range 44-84 years) reported hours per week worked in all jobs in Exams 1 (2000-2002), 2 (2002-2004), 3 (2004-2005), and 5 (2010-2011). Cognitive function was assessed (Exam 5) using the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (version 2), a measure of global cognitive functioning; the Digit Symbol Coding, a measure of processing speed; and the Digit Span test, a measure of attention and working memory. We used a prospective approach and linear regression to assess associations for every 10 hours of work. RESULTS: Among all participants, associations of hours worked with cognitive function of any type were not statistically significant. In occupation-stratified analyses (interaction p = 0.051), longer work hours were associated with poorer global cognitive function among Sales/Office and blue-collar workers, after adjustment for age, sex, physical activity, body mass index, race/ethnicity, educational level, annual income, history of heart attack, diabetes, apolipoprotein E-epsilon 4 allele (ApoE4) status, birth-place, number of years in the United States, language spoken at MESA Exam 1, and work hours at Exam 5 (ß = -0.55, 95% CI = -0.99, -0.09) and (ß = -0.80, -1.51, -0.09), respectively. In occupation-stratified analyses (interaction p = 0.040), we also observed an inverse association with processing speed among blue-collar workers (adjusted ß = -0.80, -1.52, -0.07). Sex, race/ethnicity, and ApoE4 did not significantly modify associations between work hours and cognitive function. CONCLUSION: Weak inverse associations were observed between work hours and cognitive function among Sales/Office and blue-collar workers.

The injury severity score or the new injury severity score for predicting mortality, intensive care unit admission and length of hospital stay: experience from a university hospital in a developing country.

INTRODUCTION: Limited research has been performed to compare the predictive abilities of the injury severity score (ISS) and the new ISS (NISS) in the developing world. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From January 2001 until January 2003 all trauma patients admitted to the American University of Beirut Medical Centre were enrolled. The statistical performance of the ISS/NISS in predicting mortality, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and length of hospital stay (LOS dichotomised as <10 or > or =10 days) was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration statistic. RESULTS: A total of 891 consecutive patients were enrolled. The ISS and NISS were equivalent in predicting survival, and both performed better in patients younger than 65 years of age. However, the ISS predicted ICU admission and LOS better than the NISS. However, these predictive abilities were lower for the geriatric trauma patients aged 65 years and above compared to the other age groups. DISCUSSION: There are conflicting results in the literature about the abilities of ISS and NISS to predict mortality. However, this is the first study to report that ISS has a superior ability in predicting both LOS and ICU admission. CONCLUSION: The scoring of trauma severity may need to be individualised to different countries and trauma systems.