Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in an Oman-Based Cohort.

Objectives: This study aimed to design a machine learning-based prediction framework to predict the presence or absence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a cohort of Omani patients. Methods: Data of 219 patients from 2006 to 2019 were extracted from Sultan Qaboos University Hospital's electronic records. Among these, 138 patients had SLE, while the remaining 81 had other rheumatologic diseases. Clinical and demographic features were analysed to focus on the early stages of the disease. Recursive feature selection was implemented to choose the most informative features. The CatBoost classification algorithm was utilised to predict SLE, and the SHAP explainer algorithm was applied on top of the CatBoost model to provide individual prediction reasoning, which was then validated by rheumatologists. Results: CatBoost achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.95 and a sensitivity of 92%. The SHAP algorithm identified four clinical features (alopecia, renal disorders, acute cutaneous lupus and haemolytic anaemia) and the patient's age as having the greatest contribution to the prediction. Conclusion: An explainable framework to predict SLE in patients and provide reasoning for its prediction was designed and validated. This framework enables clinicians to implement early interventions that will lead to positive healthcare outcomes.

Cytomegalovirus Infections in the Atypical Host: A Case Series of Clinical Conundra.

Background Cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation may occur as the shedding of the virus from various body sites or could represent an active disease that might be fatal if untreated. Distinguishing between the two states may prove very difficult. The role of the CMV disease in patients with hematological malignancies or transplant patients is more defined than that in other immunocompromised patients where neither anti-CMV prophylaxis is used nor plasma CMV levels are monitored. Here, we try to examine cases with CMV viremia in the latter group of patients in an attempt to make a distinction between CMV infection and disease to determine which patients would benefit from treatment. Methods Elderly patients, patients with rheumatological disorders, and patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and with clinical suspicion of CMV disease who were referred to the infectious diseases service at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital were examined from 1 January 2018 to 31 January 2023. We added a patient we found in our referral log book from 2012. Clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory data were retrieved from the hospital information system. Plasma CMV levels and CMV body fluid levels including pulmonary samples obtained from bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) in suspected cases of CMV pneumonitis and gastrointestinal (GI) CMV levels obtained from stool and gastrointestinal tissue biopsies in suspected cases of gastrointestinal CMV disease were collected. COBAS® AmpliPrep/COBAS® TaqMan®assay (Roche Molecular Systems, Inc., Branchburg, NJ) was used to measure CMV copies per milliliter. Results A total of 28 patients were considered to have CMV disease, 12 of whom were elderly (≥60 years) and the rest were young and middle aged (Y/M). The most common comorbidities of the elderly included chronic kidney disease (CKD), hypertension (HTN), and diabetes mellitus (DM). In the Y/M group, seven patients had systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), one had antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) associated vasculitis, four patients had IBD, two had IBD plus primary immunodeficiencies (one patient had agammaglobulinemia and one had combined deficiencies), and one patient had combined immunodeficiency. CKD was a common finding in the SLE patients. Diarrhea was the most common CMV presentation occurring in 19 patients (67.9%), being bloody in 10 patients. Four patients had pulmonary presentations, and four had hematological presentations in the form of anemia or pancytopenia. Nineteen patients were given CMV antiviral treatment, and one patient received it during the first episode but not in the second episode. Twenty-eight-day mortality in the treated group was 20% versus 55.5% in the untreated group. The majority of the deaths occurred in the SLE and elderly patients. Thrombocytopenia occurred in 60.7%, 70.6% of whom died signaling a potential predictive role for thrombocytopenia in early empirical CMV antiviral treatment and in prognosis. Conclusion The difficulty in distinguishing CMV infection from CMV disease remains a concern in the elderly and SLE patients. In our small study, there was a survival benefit in early screening for CMV and initiating preemptive CMV antiviral therapy in these two groups even before CMV disease is proven. This urgency was not observed for patients with IBD or primary immunodeficiencies. A major common factor for CMV disease was CKD, whereas thrombocytopenia was an indicator of disease and prognosis.

Characteristics of SLE patients with symptomatic COVID-19: Single centre experience at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital over a 30-month period.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemic was declared by WHO in March 2020. Severity of disease varied from asymptomatic to fatal infection. Severe disease was found to be associated with hyperinflammation syndrome. Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is treated with various immunosuppressive agents, intensity of which depends on the severity of the disease. We aimed to study the characteristic of SLE patients infected with COVID-19. METHODS: 352 patients with SLE were included in this observational cross-section study conducted over a 30-month period beginning from 24th February 2020 (first COVID cases documented in Oman) until end of July 2022. Data were retrieved from electronic medical records and through questionnaire handed to patients in OPD or filled through phone calls. RESULTS: 40.6% of SLE patients developed COVID-19 infection with mean age of 37 years and maintaining their male to female ratio as in SLE disease. Majority of the patients in both COVID-infected and non-infected groups had SLE disease activity of zero. Sore throat and cough were present in almost all patients. Other common symptoms were myalgia/arthralgia (94%) followed by fever. Significant difference between the groups was in severity of SLE and in lung involvement. No difference was noted between the two groups in other parameters including regarding the frequency of medication. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study of COVID-19 in SLE patients in the Gulf Council Countries (GCCs). A significant difference between COVID-infected and uninfected groups was seen in the SLE disease activity and whether lung was involved in the SLE patients. We found no impact for DM, HTN, BMI, IHD, lupus nephrites of SLE medication on COVID-19 infection.

Transition readiness in adolescents and young adults with chronic rheumatic disease in Oman: today's needs and future challenges.

INTRODUCTION: In Oman, the ""transition" of health care of adolescents to adult care occurs at a young age, like many other GCC countries for cultural reasons. In order to address this concern, this study was conducted to determine the transition readiness skills of adolescents and young adults with childhood onset rheumatic diseases using a cross-cultural adaptation of the UNC TRxANSITION scale. METHODS: We used a professionally translated/back translated, provider-administered UNC TRxANSITION Scale. This 32-question scale measures HCT in 10 domains including knowledge about diagnosis or treatment, diet, reproductive health, school/work, insurance, ability to self-manage and identification of new health providers. The maximum transitional score of 10, was categorized as low (1-4), moderate (4 - 7) and high (7 -10) transitional readiness scores. RESULTS: We enrolled 81 Omani adolescents and young adults (AYA) with chronic childhood onset rheumatic diseases. The cohort consisted of 79% females, with mean age of 15.8 years (± 3.53) and mean disease duration of 6.95 years (± 4.83). Our cohort's overall mean score is low 5.22 (±1.68). Only 14.8% of the cohort achieved a high transition score (≥7). Significant direct relationship was observed between age and the mean transition readiness score (r = .533, P < .001). The mean transition readiness score in the younger age group (10-13 years) was 4.07 (±1.29), the middle age group (14-18 years) was 5.43 (±1.27), while the older age group (19-21 year), was 6.12 (±1.81). Mean transition score of youngest age group was found to be significantly lower than the other two age groups (p = .003). CONCLUSION: Overall, the transition readiness of AYA in Oman is low compared to other western countries indicating the need to initiate a health care transition preparation program for patients with chronic diseases across the country. In addition, we need to establish regional guidelines to address the transfer and transition policies to be in line to international recommendations. As transition continues after transfer, and is preferably guided by adolescent developmental status rather than chronological age, it would be preferable to refer to the transition and transfer policies 9rather than transitional age policy) to be in line to international recommendations.

A multicenter longitudinal study of the prevalence and mortality rate of systemic lupus erythematosus patients in Oman: Oman Lupus Study.

AIM: This study is a longitudinal multicenter study which aims to find the prevalence, the demographic data, survival and mortality rates of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Oman. METHOD: All Omani patients, pediatrics and adults diagnosed with SLE, who fulfill either the 1997 American College of Rheumatology or Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics classifications criteria for SLE were included from January 2006 till February 2020. RESULTS: In total 1160 patients were included in this cohort. Data analysis showed that patient's ages ranged from 2-82 years with female predominance and female-to-male ratio of 7:1 (87.7% female,12.3% male). The mean prevalence of SLE among different age groups was 38.8 (range 5-63 per 100 000 inhabitants). The mortality rate was found to be 5%. Male patients had significantly higher mortality rate than females (7.6% vs 5.4%, P value = .04). Sepsis was the commonest cause of mortality (34%). The coexistence of systemic sclerosis correlates significantly with death (P = .002). Survival analysis in our data showed 5, 10, 20, 40-year survival rates of 100%, 100%, 99% and 90% respectively for antinuclear antibody (ANA) positive patients and lower survival rate for ANA negative patients with 5,10, 20, 40-year survival rates of 100, 99%, 99% and 75%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the mean prevalence of SLE in Oman to be 38.8 (range 5-63) per 100 000 inhabitants. The 40-year survival rate among patients with positive ANA was found to be 90%, while patients with negative ANA had worse survival outcomes.