Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012-2017.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.

Spatiotemporal evolutionary epidemiology of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in West Africa and Nigeria, 2006-2015.

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) was first observed in Nigeria in early 2006 and has now spread to more than 17 African countries having severe economic and public health implications. Here, we explore the spatiotemporal patterns of viral dispersal both among West African countries and within Nigeria using sequence data from hemagglutinin (HA) gene region of the virus. Analyses were performed within a statistical Bayesian framework using phylodynamic models on data sets comprising of all publically available HA sequence data collected from seven West African countries and Egypt between 2006 and 2015. Our regional-level analyses indicated that H5N1 in West Africa originated in Nigeria in three geopolitical regions, specifically north central and north-east, where backyard poultry and wild birds are in frequent contact, as well as south-west, a major commercial poultry area, then dispersed to West African countries. We inferred significant virus dispersal routes between Niger and Nigeria on one side and Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Egypt on the other. Furthermore, south-west Nigeria identified as a primary source for virus dispersal within Nigeria as well as to Niger in 2006 and 2008. Niger was an important epicentre for the virus spread into other West African countries in 2015. Egyptian introductions from West Africa were sporadic and resulted most likely from poultry trade with Nigeria rather than contact with infected wild birds. Our inferred viral dispersal routes reflected the large-scale unrestricted movements of infected poultry in the region. Our study illustrates the ability of phylodynamic models to trace important HPAIV dispersal routes at a regional and national level. Our results have clear implications for the control and prevention of this pathogen across scales and will help improve molecular surveillance of transboundary HPAIVs.

Epidemiological analysis, serological prevalence and genotypic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease in Nigeria 2008-2009.

The epidemiological situation of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is uncertain in Nigeria, where the disease is endemic, and the majority of outbreaks are unreported. Control measures for FMD in Nigeria are not being implemented due to the absence of locally produced vaccines and an official ban on vaccine importation. This study summarizes the findings of a 3-year study aimed at quantifying the seroprevalence of FMD, its distribution in susceptible species and the genetic diversity of FMDV isolated from the Plateau State of Nigeria. A 29% FMD prevalence was estimated using 3ABC enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (3ABC ELISA). Farms with suspected FMD nearby, with contact with wildlife, that used drugs or FMD vaccines or with >100 animals, and animals of large ruminant species and in pastures other than nomadic grazing were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with FMD. Antibodies against five FMDV serotypes, (A, O, SAT1, SAT2 and SAT3) were detected by the virus neutralization test (VNT) at various titres (<100->800) from all tested sera from most parts of the region. This is probably the first report of the presence of FMDV SAT3 in Nigeria. Further studies to investigate the potential probable presence and prevalence of SAT 3 virus in Nigeria are required. Tissue samples collected from clinical animals were positive for FMDV. Virus isolates were sequenced and confirmed as serotype A. All of the isolates showed marked genetic homogeneity with >99% genetic identity in the VP1 region and were most closely related to a previously described virus collected from Cameroon in 2000. This study provides knowledge on the epidemiological situation of FMD in Plateau State, Nigeria, and will probably help to develop effective control and preventive strategies for the disease in Nigeria and other countries in the West African subregion.

Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions.

The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value<0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a "catastrophic situation". A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value<0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value<0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies.

Global animal disease surveillance.

Development and implementation of global animal disease surveillance has been limited by the lack of information systems that enable near real-time data capturing, sharing, analysis, and related decision- and policy-making. The objective of this paper is to describe requirements for global animal disease surveillance, including design and functionality of tools and methods for visualization and analysis of animal disease data. The paper also explores the potential application of techniques for spatial and spatio-temporal analysis on global animal disease surveillance, including for example, landscape genetics, social network analysis, and Bayesian modeling. Finally, highly pathogenic avian influenza data from Denmark and Sweden are used to illustrate the potential application of a novel system (Disease BioPortal) for data sharing, visualization, and analysis for regional and global surveillance efforts.

Temporospatial clustering of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Israel and Palestine, 2006-2007.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic to the Middle East and there is a perception that political instability and limited resources have led to the uncontrolled circulation of FMD virus throughout the region. Certain aspects of FMD epidemiology in the Middle East remain unknown. The goal of this study was to identify the geographical location, temporal extent and direction of spread of clusters of 70 FMD outbreaks reported in Israel and Palestine from February 4, 2006, through July 15, 2007. The space-time permutation model of the scan statistic test detected nine significant (P < 0.1) clusters. Significant (P < 0.05) direction of spread was identified in four of the nine clusters. The Gaza Strip, where no outbreaks were reported, or a nearby location, seemed to be the origin of a cluster of outbreaks located in Hadarom (April 2007); a cluster of outbreaks centered in West Bank (February 2006) may be linked with spread from Northern Israel; a cluster in Hazafon (January 2007) seemed to have originated from nearby the Jordan borders; and a cluster located in Northern Hazafon was likely related to areas next to the Lebanon and Syrian borders. The association between the clusters in West Bank and earlier Israeli samples and between the cluster in Hazafon and Jordan was also supported (P < 0.05) by phylogenetic analysis of samples collected from the outbreaks. These results suggest that the FMD outbreaks reported in Israel and Palestine in 2006 and 2007 were likely a consequence of different epidemics associated with the circulation and spread of FMD virus strains from different regions of the Middle East.