Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform.

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda's green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda's green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Incorporating natural capital into economy-wide impact analysis: a case study from Alberta.

Traditionally, decision-makers have relied on economic impact estimates derived from conventional economy-wide models. Conventional models lack the environmental linkages necessary for examining environmental stewardship and economic sustainability, and in particular the ability to assess the impact of policies on natural capital. This study investigates environmentally extended economic impact estimation on a regional scale using a case study region in the province of Alberta known as the Foothills Model Forest (FMF). Conventional economic impact models are environmentally extended in pursuit of enhancing policy analysis and local decision-making. It is found that the flexibility of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach offers potential for environmental extension, with a solid grounding in economic theory. The CGE approach may be the tool of the future for more complete integrated environment and economic impact assessment.