Factors Impacting Physician Prognostic Accuracy in Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: A recent study showed that the accuracy of heart failure (HF) cardiologists and family doctors to predict mortality in outpatients with HF proved suboptimal, performing less well than models. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to evaluate patient and physician factors associated with physician accuracy. METHODS: The authors included outpatients with HF from 11 HF clinics. Family doctors and HF cardiologists estimated patient 1-year mortality. They calculated predicted mortality using the Seattle HF Model and followed patients for 1 year to record mortality (or urgent heart transplant or ventricular assist device implant as mortality-equivalent events). Using multivariable logistic regression, the authors evaluated associations among physician experience and confidence in estimates, duration of patient-physician relationship, patient-physician sex concordance, patient race, and predicted risk, with concordant results between physician and model predictions. RESULTS: Among 1,643 patients, 1-year event rate was 10% (95% CI: 8%-12%). One-half of the estimates showed discrepant results between model and physician predictions, mainly owing to physician risk overestimation. Discrepancies were more frequent with increasing patient risk from 38% in low-risk to ∼75% in high-risk patients. When making predictions on male patients, female HF cardiologists were 26% more likely to have discrepant predictions (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.58-0.94). HF cardiologist estimates in Black patients were 33% more likely to be discrepant (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.45-0.99). Low confidence in predictions was associated with discrepancy. Analyses restricted to high-confidence estimates showed inferior calibration to the model, with risk overestimation across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Discrepant physician and model predictions were more frequent in cases with perceived increased risk. Model predictions outperform physicians even when they are confident in their predictions. (Predicted Prognosis in Heart Failure [INTUITION]; NCT04009798).

The design of studies testing the effectiveness of risk-guided care has many challenges: a scoping review addressing key considerations.

OBJECTIVES: Studies evaluating the effectiveness of care based on patients' risk of adverse outcomes (risk-guided care) use a variety of study designs. In this scoping review, using examples, we review characteristics of relevant studies and present key design features to optimize the trustworthiness of results. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched five online databases for studies evaluating the effect of risk-guided care among adults on clinical outcomes, process, or cost. Pairs of reviewers independently performed screening and data abstraction. We descriptively summarized the study design and characteristics. RESULTS: Among 14,561 hits, we identified 116 eligible studies. Study designs included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), post hoc analysis of RCTs, and retrospective or prospective cohort studies. Challenges and sources of bias in the design included limited performance of predictive models, contamination, inadequacy to address the credibility of subgroup effects, absence of differences in care across risk strata, reporting only process measures as opposed to clinical outcomes, and failure to report benefits and harms. CONCLUSION: To assess the benefit of risk-guided care, RCTs provide the most trustworthy evidence. Observational studies offer an alternative but are hampered by confounding and other limitations. Reaching valid conclusions when testing risk-guided care requires addressing the challenges identified in our review.

Endomyocardiofibrosis in the Americas Collaborative Study: The EMF-SIAC Registry.

Endomyocardiofibrosis (EMF) is a restrictive cardiomyopathy characterized by subendocardial fibrosis due to eosinophilic myocardial infiltration. EMF may commonly present with heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation (AF). Immunosuppression can be effective in early stages, but not in the chronic phase. Our objective was to describe the characteristics of EMF patients in the Americas. This registry is a retrospective multicenter cross-sectional study including patients ≥18 years-old with EMF diagnosed by imaging methods, according to the Mocumbi criteria. Clinical, biochemical, and imaging variables were analyzed. On the 54 patients included, 28 (52%) were male with an age of 47 years. The etiology was idiopathic in 47 (87%) patients, familial in 4 (7%), and secondary to chemotherapy in 2 (3.5%). We detected a history of HF in 41 patients (76%), AF in 19 (35%), and ischemic stroke in 8 (15%). The diagnosis was made by echocardiography in all patients, and 38% had Cardiac Resonance or Computed Tomography. Thirty-five patients (65%) presented a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%, 11 (21%) severe mitral regurgitation, and 18 (33%) severe tricuspid regurgitation. In 17 patients (32%) the diagnosis was confirmed by endomyocardial biopsy. Among medical therapy, 72% received beta-blockers, 63% vasodilators, 65% mineralocorticoid antagonists, 7.4% SGLT2 inhibitors, and 11% corticosteroids. Subendocardial resection was performed in 9 (16%) patients and mitral valve replacement in 11 (20%) patients. In conclusion, EMF patients had a high prevalence of HF, AF, and embolic events. The diagnosis was frequently made in an advanced stage when HF management and surgery were the only effective treatments.

Predicting 1-Year Mortality in Outpatients With Heart Failure With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction: Do Empiric Models Outperform Physician Intuitive Estimates? A Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have demonstrated that physicians often err in estimating patient prognosis. No studies have directly compared physician to model predictive performance in heart failure (HF). We aimed to compare the accuracy of physician versus model predictions of 1-year mortality. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study on 11 HF clinics in 5 provinces in Canada included consecutive consented outpatients with HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (<40%). By collecting clinical data, we calculated predicted 1-year mortality using the Seattle HF Model (SHFM), the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic HF score, and the HF Meta-Score. HF cardiologists and family doctors, blinded to model predictions, estimated patient 1-year mortality. During 1-year follow-up, we recorded the composite end point of mortality, urgent ventricular assist device implant, or heart transplant. We compared physicians and model discrimination (C statistic), calibration (observed versus predicted event rate), and risk reclassification. RESULTS: The study included 1643 patients with ambulatory HF with a mean age of 65 years, 24% female, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 28%. Over 1-year follow-up, 9% had an event. The SHFM had the best discrimination (SHFM C statistic 0.76; HF Meta-Score 0.73; Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure 0.70) and calibration. Physicians' discrimination differed little (0.75 for HF cardiologists and 0.73 for family doctors) but both physician groups substantially overestimated risk by >10% in both low- and high-risk patients (poor calibration). In risk reclassification analysis, among patients without events, the SHFM better classified 51% in comparison to HF cardiologists and 43% in comparison to family doctors. In patients with events, the SHFM erroneously assigned lower risk to 44% in comparison to HF cardiologists and 34% in comparison to family doctors. CONCLUSIONS: Family doctors and HF cardiologists showed adequate risk discrimination, with however substantial overestimation of absolute risk. Predictive models showed higher accuracy. Incorporating models in family and HF cardiology practices may improve patient care and resource use in HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04009798.

The impact of obesity and LVAD-bridging on heart transplant candidate outcomes: a linked STS INTERMACS - OPTN/UNOS data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data integrating waitlist and postheart transplant (HT) mortality have evaluated outcomes of left ventricular assist device (LVAD)-bridged strategy vs no LVAD according to patient characteristics. We evaluated waitlist and post-HT mortality in LVAD-bridged vs nonbridged patients based on body mass index (BMI). METHODS: We included linked adults listed for HT in Organ Procurement and Transplant Network/United Network for Organ Sharing and patients receiving durable LVAD as bridge to HT or candidacy in Society of Thoracic Surgeons/Interagency Mechanical Circulatory Support databases (2010-2019). Using BMI at listing or LVAD implant, we categorized patients as underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5-24.99 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.99 kg/m2), and obese (≥30 kg/m2). Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models informed the effect of LVAD-bridged and nonbridged strategy by BMI on waitlist, post-HT, and overall mortality (including waitlist and post-HT mortality). RESULTS: Among 11,216 LVAD-bridged and 17,122 nonbridged candidates, bridged candidates were more frequently obese (37.3% vs 28.6%) (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis indicated increased waitlist mortality in LVAD-bridged vs nonbridged with overweight (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.36) or obesity (HR 1.35, 95%CI 1.17-1.56) in comparison to normal weight candidates (HR 1.02, 95%CI 0.88-1.19) (p-interaction < 0.001). Post-transplant mortality was not statistically different in LVAD-bridged vs nonbridged patients across BMI categories (p-interaction = 0.26). There was a nonsignificant graded increase in overall mortality in LVAD-bridged with overweight (HR 1.53, 95%CI 1.39-1.68) or obesity (HR 1.61, 95%CI 1.46-1.78) compared to nonbridged patients (p-interaction = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: LVAD-bridged candidates with obesity had higher waitlist mortality compared to nonbridged candidates with obesity. Post-transplant mortality was similar in LVAD-bridged and nonbridged patients, but obesity remained associated with increased mortality in both groups. This study may aid clinicians and advanced heart failure patients with obesity in decision-making.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Graft Dysfunction Early After Heart Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a prevailing option for the management of severe early graft dysfunction. This systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aims to evaluate (1) mortality, (2) rates of major complications, (3) prognostic factors, and (4) the effect of different VA-ECMO strategies on outcomes in adult heart transplant (HT) recipients supported with VA-ECMO. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic search and included studies of adults (≥18 years) who received VA-ECMO during their index hospitalization after HT and reported on mortality at any timepoint. We pooled data using random effects models. To identify prognostic factors, we analysed IPD using mixed effects logistic regression. We assessed the certainty in the evidence using the GRADE framework. We included 49 observational studies of 1477 patients who received VA-ECMO after HT, of which 15 studies provided IPD for 448 patients. There were no differences in mortality estimates between IPD and non-IPD studies. The short-term (30-day/in-hospital) mortality estimate was 33% (moderate certainty, 95% confidence interval [CI] 28%-39%) and 1-year mortality estimate 50% (moderate certainty, 95% CI 43%-57%). Recipient age (odds ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) and prior sternotomy (OR 1.57, 95% CI 0.99-2.49) are associated with increased short-term mortality. There is low certainty evidence that early intraoperative cannulation and peripheral cannulation reduce the risk of short-term death. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients who receive VA-ECMO for early graft dysfunction do not survive 30 days or to hospital discharge, and one-half do not survive to 1 year after HT. Improving outcomes will require ongoing research focused on optimizing VA-ECMO strategies and care in the first year after HT.

Increased Mortality in Patients With Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Toronto, Canada.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a reduction in patients seeking timely consultation for illnesses that are not related to COVID-19. Previously, we reported a decline in the number of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic vs that in 2019. We aimed to determine the consequences of these early trends on ADHF-patient morbidity and mortality. Methods: We compared consecutive patients presenting with ADHF to 3 academic medical centres in Toronto, Canada from March 1-September 28, 2020, vs those from the same time period in 2019. We used multivariate logistic regression models to evaluate whether the odds of hospitalization after presenting to the ED, recurrent ED visits or readmission within 30 days, and in-hospital all-cause mortality differed by timeframe. Results: We observed that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a lower total number of patients presented to the hospital with ADHF, vs that in 2019. Despite this difference, the probability of being admitted to the hospital did not differ for patients seen in 2020 vs 2019. Among ADHF patients admitted to the hospital, however, we observed a significantly higher proportion being admitted to the intensive care unit, and a relative 66% increase in in-hospital mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 era, compared to that in 2019. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that improved messaging may be needed for patients living with chronic health conditions, including HF, during the pandemic, to educate and encourage them to present to hospital services when in need.

Contexte: La maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) s'est traduite par une diminution du nombre de patients demandant des consultations médicales pour des états de santé sans lien avec la COVID-19. Nous avons précédemment décrit une diminution du nombre de consultations aux urgences et d'hospitalisations en raison d'une insuffisance cardiaque aiguë décompensée (ICAD) au cours de la pandémie de COVID-19 en 2020, par rapport à 2019. Nous avons voulu déterminer les conséquences de ces tendances précoces sur la morbidité et la mortalité chez les patients atteints d'ICAD. Méthodologie: Nous avons comparé les données pour les patients consécutifs atteints d'ICAD de trois centres médicaux hospitaliers de Toronto (Canada) traités entre le 1er mars et le 28 septembre 2020 et durant la même période en 2019. À l'aide de modèles de régression logistique multivariée, nous avons évalué les différences entre les probabilités d'hospitalisation après une consultation aux urgences, de consultations récurrentes aux urgences ou de réadmission dans les 30 jours suivant la visite initiale, ainsi que de mortalité hospitalière toutes causes confondues pour les patients vus durant ces deux périodes. Résultats: Durant la pandémie de COVID-19, le nombre total de patients atteints d'ICAD s'étant présentés à l'hôpital a été plus faible que celui relevé pour l'année 2019. Malgré cet écart, la probabilité d'admission à l'hôpital ne différait pas pour les patients vus en 2020 et en 2019. Parmi les patients atteints d'ICAD admis à l'hôpital, nous avons toutefois observé une proportion significativement plus élevée de séjours aux soins intensifs et une hausse relative de 66 % du taux de mortalité hospitalière, en comparant les données de 2020 (pandémie de COVID-19) et celles de 2019. Conclusions: Nos observations indiquent qu'il pourrait être nécessaire d'améliorer la communication avec les patients atteints de problèmes de santé chroniques (y compris l'IC) en situation de pandémie de façon à mieux les informer et à les encourager à consulter les services hospitaliers lorsque nécessaire.

Predicted heart mass for size matching in obese heart transplant donors and recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Predicted heart mass (PHM) was neither derived nor evaluated in an obese population. Our objective was to evaluate size mismatch using actual body weight or ideal body weight (IBW)-adjusted PHM on mortality and risk assessment. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult recipients with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 or recipients of donors with BMI≥30 kg/m2 from the ISHLT registry. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate 30-day and 1-year mortality. The two models were compared using net reclassification index. RESULTS: 10,817 HT recipients, age 55 (IQR 46-62) years, 23% female, BMI 31 kg/m2 (IQR 28-33) were included. Donors were age 34 (IQR 24-44) years, 31% female, and BMI 31 kg/m2 (IQR 26-34). There was a significant nonlinear association between mortality and actual PHM but not IBW-adjusted PHM. Undersizing using actual PHM was associated with higher 30-day and 1-year mortality (p < .01), not seen with IBW-adjusted PHM. Actual PHM better risk classified .6% (95% CI .3-.8) patients compared to IBW-adjusted PHM. CONCLUSION: Actual PHM can be used for size matching when assessing mortality risk in obese recipients or recipients of obese donors. There is no advantage to re-calculating PHM using IBW to define candidate risk at the time of organ allocation.

Predictors of Survival and Favorable Neurologic Outcome in Patients Treated with eCPR: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) can improve survival in selected patients with cardiac arrest (CA). In this meta-analysis, we evaluated factors associated with short-term survival and favorable neurologic outcome (FNO) post-eCPR. In June 2019, we systematically searched electronic databases for studies reporting on survival and predictors associated with short-term survival or FNO post-eCPR using multivariable analysis. We meta-analyzed outcomes and predictors using the inverse variance method with a random-effects model. We identified 92 studies with 13 factors amenable to meta-analysis. Pooled short-term survival and FNO were 25% and 16% respectively. Lower lactate, return of spontaneous circulation, shockable rhythm, shorter CPR duration, baseline pH, shorter low-flow time, and history of hypertension were significantly associated with short-term survival. In addition, shockable rhythm, lower lactate, and use of targeted temperature management were associated with FNO. The identified factors associated with short-term survival and FNO post-eCPR could guide prognosis prediction at the time of CA.

Association between continuous-flow left ventricular assist device infections requiring long-term antibiotic use and post-heart transplant morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF STUDY: There exists controversy regarding the impact of infection in patients with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) on post-heart transplant outcomes. This study evaluated the association between infections during LVAD support and the risk of early and late post-heart transplant infection, rejection, and mortality in transplant recipients bridged with an LVAD. METHODS: This is a single-center retrospective observational cohort study of consecutive adults supported with a continuous flow LVAD undergoing heart transplant between 2006 and 2019 at the Toronto General Hospital. The grade of LVAD infection was classified as per International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation guidelines. Patients were divided into three groups: (1) patients with LVAD-specific infection confirmed with positive cultures requiring long-term antibiotic use until the time of transplant; (2) patients with any type of infection in whom antibiotics were stopped at least 1 month before transplant; (3) patients without any infections between LVAD implant and transplant. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate early- and late-post transplant outcomes, respectively. RESULTS: We included 75 LVAD recipients: 16 (21%) patients had a chronic LVAD-related infection on suppressive antibiotics, 30 (40%) had a resolved infection, and 29 (39%) had no infections. During a median post-transplant follow-up time of 4 (2 to 7) years, 65 (87%) patients developed infections, 43 (64%) rejections, and 17 (23%) deaths. Both short- and long-term risks of infection, rejection, and mortality did not differ significantly among the groups. CONCLUSION: LVAD patients with infections did not have a significantly higher risk of infection, rejection, or mortality at any time point after transplant.

Prognostic value of natriuretic peptides in heart failure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Risk models, informing optimal long-term medical management, seldom use natriuretic peptides (NP) in ascertaining the absolute risk of outcomes for HF patients. Individual studies evaluating the prognostic value of NPs in HF patients have reported varying effects, arriving at best estimates requires a systematic review. We systematically summarized the best evidence regarding the prognostic value of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and NT-proBNP in predicting mortality and hospitalizations in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients. We searched bibliographic databases from 2005 to 2018 and included studies evaluating the association of BNP or NT-proBNP with mortality or hospitalization using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. We pooled hazard ratios using random-effect models, explored heterogeneity using pre-specified subgroup analyses, and evaluated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations and Development Evaluation framework. We identified 67 eligible studies reporting on 76,178 ambulatory HF patients with a median BNP of 407 pg/mL (261-574 pg/mL). Moderate to high-quality evidence showed that a 100-pg/mL increase in BNP was associated with a 14% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22); a 1-log-unit increase was associated with a 51% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.41-1.61) and 48% increased hazard of mortality or hospitalization (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.29-1.69). With moderate to high certainty, we observed a 14% independent relative increase in mortality, translating to a clinically meaningful increase in absolute risk even for low-risk patients. The observed associations may help in developing more accurate risk models that incorporate NPs and accurately prognosticate HF patients.

Incidence and impact of primary graft dysfunction in adult heart transplant recipients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a leading cause of early mortality after heart transplant (HTx). To identify PGD incidence and impact on mortality, and to elucidate risk factors for PGD, we systematically reviewed studies using the ISHLT 2014 Consensus Report definition and reporting the incidence of PGD in adult HTx recipients. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in January 2020 including studies reporting the incidence of PGD in adult HTx recipients. We used a random effects model to pool the incidence of PGD among HTx recipients and, for each PGD severity, the mortality rate among those who developed PGD. For prognostic factors evaluated in ≥2 studies, we used random effects meta-analyses to pool the adjusted odds ratios for development of PGD. The GRADE framework informed our certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: Of 148 publications identified, 36 observational studies proved eligible. With moderate certainty, we observed pooled incidences of 3.5%, 6.6%, 7.7%, and 1.6% and 1-year mortality rates of 15%, 21%, 41%, and 35% for mild, moderate, severe and isolated right ventricular-PGD, respectively. Donor factors (female sex, and undersized), recipient factors (creatinine, and pre-HTx use of amiodarone, and temporary or durable mechanical support), and prolonged ischemic time proved associated with PGD post-HTx. CONCLUSION: Our review suggests that the incidence of PGD may be low but its risk of mortality high, increasing with PGD severity. Prognostic factors, including undersized donor, recipient use of amiodarone pre-HTx and recipient creatinine may guide future studies in exploring donor and/or recipient selection and risk mitigation strategies.

Mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock supported with VA ECMO: A systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the impact of etiology on 29,289 patients.

BACKGROUND: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) is associated with variable outcomes. In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the mortality after VA ECMO across multiple etiologies of cardiogenic shock (CS). METHODS: In June 2019, we performed a systematic search selecting observational studies with ≥10 adult patients reporting on short-term mortality (30-day or mortality at discharge) after initiation of VA ECMO by CS etiology published after 2009. We performed meta-analyses using random effect models and used metaregression to evaluate mortality across CS etiology. RESULTS: We included 306 studies (29,289 patients): 25 studies on after heart transplantation (HTx) (771 patients), 13 on myocarditis (906 patients), 33 on decompensated heart failure (HF) (3,567 patients), 64 on after cardiotomy shock (8,231 patients), 10 on pulmonary embolism (PE) (221 patients), 80 on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (7,774 patients), and 113 on after cardiac arrest [CA] (7,814 patients). With moderate certainty on effect estimates, we observed significantly different mortality estimates for various etiologies (p < 0.001), which is not explained by differences in age and sex across studies: 35% (95% CI: 29-42) for after HTx, 40% (95% CI: 33-46) for myocarditis, 53% (95% CI: 46-59) for HF, 52% (95% CI: 38-66) for PE, 59% (95% CI: 56-63) for cardiotomy, 60% (95% CI: 57-64) for AMI, 64% (95% CI: 59-69) for post‒in-hospital CA, and 76% (95% CI: 69-82) for post-out‒of-hospital CA. Univariable metaregression showed that variation in mortality estimates within etiology group was partially explained by population age, proportion of females, left ventricle venting, and CA. CONCLUSIONS: Using an overall estimate of mortality for patients with CS requiring VA ECMO is inadequate given the differential outcomes by etiology. To further refine patient selection and management to improve outcomes, additional studies evaluating patient characteristics impacting outcomes by specific CS etiology are needed.

The Effect of Age on Outcomes After Destination-Therapy Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation: An Analysis of the IMACS Registry.

BACKGROUND: As patients with advanced heart failure are living longer, defining the impact of left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) on outcomes in an aging population is of great importance. We describe overall survival, rates of adverse events (AEs), and post-AE survival in patients age ≥ 70 years vs age 50-69 years after destination-therapy (DT) LVAD implantation. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted with the use of the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (IMACS) registry. All adults age ≥ 50 years with a continuous-flow DT LVAD from 2013 to 2017 were included. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes were the incidence of and survival after gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, infection, stroke, pump thrombosis, pump exchange, and right-side heart failure. Mortality and AEs were assessed with the use of competing risk models. RESULTS: At total of 5,572 patients were included: 3,700 aged 50-69 and 1,872 aged ≥ 70. All-cause mortality by 42 months was 55.8% in patients aged ≥ 70 and 44.8% in patients aged 50-69 (P = 0.001). Patients aged ≥ 70 had a 37.8% higher risk of death after DT LVAD implantation (hazard ratio 1.378, 95% CI 1.251-1.517). Patients aged ≥ 70 had higher risk of GI bleeding but lower risk of right-side heart failure. There was no difference between age groups for risk of infection or stroke. Experiencing any AE was associated with an increased risk of death that did not vary with age. CONCLUSIONS: Patients aged ≥ 70 years have reduced survival after DT LVAD, in part because of increased GI bleeding, while the incidence of other AEs is similar to that of patients aged 50-69 years. Careful patient selection beyond age alone may allow for optimal outcomes after DT LVAD implantation.

Exercise rehabilitation in cardiac resynchronization: systematic review and a meta-analysis.

The benefit of exercise training in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) recipients is not well established. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of exercise training on clinical outcomes in CRT recipients.A comprehensive search until 2019 was conducted of MEDLINE, Epub, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases as well as a bibliographic hand search to identify additional studies. We included all studies that compared aerobic exercise interventions in adults treated with CRT devices with adults treated with usual CRT care. These studies evaluated patient clinical characteristics, exercise testing measures, hemodynamic measures, echocardiography parameters, biomarkers and adverse events. Independent reviewers evaluated study eligibility, abstracted data and assessed risk of bias in duplicate. We used random-effect meta-analysis methods to estimate mean differences and odds ratios. Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation system were used to quantify absolute effects and quality of evidence. I2 was used to evaluate heterogeneity.We identified seven studies, six randomized control trials and one observational study, totaling 332 CRT patients in the exercise intervention and 534 patients receiving usual care. Peak VO2 was 2.4 ml/kg/min higher in the exercise group in comparison with the control group (pooled mean difference 2.26, 95% CI 1.38-3.13, I2 = 53%, high quality). AT-VO2 improved with exercise rehabilitation, and heterogeneity was considered low (pooled mean difference 3.96, 95% CI 2.68-5.24, I2 = 0.0%, moderate quality).Peak VO2 and AT-VO2 are increased with aerobic exercise in CRT recipients, demonstrating a significant improvement in functional capacity.

Resting Heart Rate as an Important Predictor of Mortality and Morbidity in Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Resting heart rate is a risk factor of adverse heart failure outcomes; however, studies have shown controversial results. This meta-analysis evaluates the association of resting heart rate with mortality and hospitalization and identifies factors influencing its effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically searched electronic databases in February 2019 for studies published in 2005 or before that evaluated the resting heart rate as a primary predictor or covariate of multivariable models of mortality and/or hospitalization in adult ambulatory patients with heart failure. Random effects inverse variance meta-analyses were performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to assess evidence quality. Sixty-two studies on 163,445 patients proved eligible. Median population heart rate was 74 bpm (interquartile range 72-76 bpm). A 10-bpm increase was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.13, high quality). Overall, subgroup analyses related to patient characteristics showed no changes to the effect estimate; however, there was a strongly positive interaction with age showing increasing risk of all-cause mortality per 10 bpm increase in heart rate. CONCLUSIONS: High-quality evidence demonstrates increasing resting heart rate is a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in ambulatory patients with heart failure on optimal medical therapy, with consistent effect across most patient factors and an increased risk trending with older age.

Reduced Rate of Hospital Presentations for Heart Failure During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Toronto, Canada.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in public health measures and health care reconfigurations likely to have impact on chronic disease care. We aimed to assess the volume and characteristics of patients presenting to hospitals with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic compared with a time-matched 2019 cohort. Patients presenting to hospitals with ADHF from March 1, to April 19, 2020 and 2019 in an urban hospital were examined. Multivariable logistic-regression models were used to evaluate the difference in probability of ADHF-related hospitalization between the 2 years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a total of 1106 emergency department (ED) visits for dyspnea or peripheral edema were recorded, compared with 800 ED visits in 2019. A decrease in ADHF-related ED visits of 43.5% (14.8%-79.4%, P = 0.002) and ADHF-related admissions of 39.3% (8.6%-78.5%, P = 0.009) was observed compared with 2019. Patients with ADHF presenting to hospitals (n = 128) were similar in age, sex, and comorbidities compared with the 2019 cohort (n = 186); however, a higher proportion had recent diagnoses of heart failure. Upon ED presentation, the relative probability of hospitalization or admission to intensive care was not statistically different. There was a trend toward higher in-hospital mortality in 2020. The decline in ADHF-related hospitalizations raises the timely question of how patients with heart failure are managing beyond the acute-care setting and reinforces the need for public education on the availability and safety of emergency services throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Post-transplant survival in adult congenital heart disease patients as compared to dilated and ischemic cardiomyopathy patients; an analysis of the thoracic ISHLT registry.

Previous studies have shown that adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) is associated with high early post-transplant mortality but improved long-term survival in comparison to the overall heart transplant population. We aimed to evaluate survival outcomes of ACHD in adult transplant recipient patients as specifically compared to ischemic (ICM) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) groups. Adult heart transplant recipients between 2004 and 2014 were identified from the ISHLT registry. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to evaluate overall survival, 1-year survival, and 1-year conditional survival among etiology groups and multivariable Cox proportional hazard (PH) models to assess the association between etiology of cardiomyopathy and 1-year and long-term all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality. We included 30 130 heart transplant recipients. One-year survival was 78.3% in ACHD, 84.3% in ICM, and 86.2% in DCM patients (P < .001). By multivariable analysis, during first post-transplant year, ACHD and ICM patients were at significantly higher mortality risk than DCM. Adjusted post-transplant mortality risk, conditional on 1-year survival, was not statistically different in ACHD and DCM while ICM patients had 17% higher long-term mortality risk than DCM patients leading to overall worse outcomes in ICM patients. Therefore, ICM patients have poorer outcomes in comparison to both DCM and ACHD patients.