Down's syndrome: screening and antenatal diagnosis regionally in England and Wales 1989-2008.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate regional changes that occurred in screening for Down's syndrome (trisomy 21) in England and Wales from 1989 to 2008. METHODS: The National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register has collected data on all ante- and postnatal diagnoses of Down's syndrome in England and Wales since 1989 (n = 27,954). The percentages of (i) diagnoses made antenatally, (ii) antenatal diagnoses that had nuchal translucency (NT) measured, and (iii) antenatal diagnoses in mothers aged 37 and over with advanced maternal age as the sole recorded indication for diagnosis are presented according to where the mother lived (Government Office Region), year of diagnosis (1989-1994, 1995-2000, 2001-2006, 2007-2008), and maternal age (<37 years, ≥37 years). RESULTS: The percentage of cases diagnosed antenatally has increased in younger women but varies between regions. It remained relatively constant at approximately 70% in older women. The use of NT measurement in antenatal screening has expanded rapidly but varies regionally, being most common in London and the South East where, in 2007-2008, over 75% of antenatal diagnoses in older women had NT measured. The sole indication of advanced maternal age has substantially reduced, and was less than 10% in older mothers in all regions in 2007-2008. CONCLUSIONS: There are regional and maternal age variations in Down's syndrome screening and diagnosis. Some regions used NT measurements, and eliminated advanced maternal age as sole reason for antenatal diagnostic testing more quickly than others. The reasons for variations need to be identified and addressed to ensure that when new screening techniques become available, regional differences are minimized.

The proportions of Down's syndrome pregnancies detected prenatally in England and Wales from 1989 to 2004.

OBJECTIVES: The proportion of Down's syndrome pregnancies detected prenatally in England and Wales is lower in younger mothers than in older mothers. This paper examines the reasons for this apparent age inequality. METHODS: We used data from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR) to examine the time trend of the proportion of Down's syndrome pregnancies diagnosed prenatally according to maternal age over the years 1989-2004 in England and Wales. RESULTS: A lower proportion of younger mothers had their Down's syndrome pregnancy detected prenatally than older mothers; however, this gap has been closing over time. For example, for mothers under 25 years of age only 13% of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected prenatally from 1989 to 1992, with this figure rising to 34% in 2001-2004, compared with proportions of 74% in both periods for mothers over 44 years of age. A lower uptake of screening among younger women could not explain these differences. The differences in detection rates of the screening methods according to maternal age, particularly of the older screening tests, could account for these differences. CONCLUSIONS: The closing gap between the proportions of younger and older women having their affected pregnancy prenatally diagnosed is a confirmation of the improvement of screening methods over time.

Recurrences of free trisomy 21: analysis of data from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the recurrence risk of a free trisomy 21 pregnancy. METHODS: Data from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR), which contains information on nearly all cases of Down syndrome between 1989 and 2001 in England and Wales were used. Among 11 281 women with a Down syndrome pregnancy who had had at least one previous pregnancy there were 95 women who had had a previous Down syndrome pregnancy. RESULTS: Women who have had a previous Down syndrome pregnancy have a constant absolute excess risk above their maternal age-related risk of having a subsequent affected pregnancy. This absolute excess risk is determined by the age at which the affected pregnancy occurred and is higher for younger than for older women. For example, after a Down syndrome pregnancy at age 20, this excess is 0.62% (95% CI: 0.24 to 1.15%) at early second trimester, and, after one at age 40, it is 0.04% (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.07%). CONCLUSION: More precise risk estimates by single year of maternal age for use in genetic counselling are provided, but they need validation from other studies before they are incorporated in the risk estimation routines used in Down syndrome screening programmes.

Risk of a Down syndrome live birth in women 45 years of age and older.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the risk of a Down syndrome (DS) live birth for women 45 years of age and over. METHODS: A meta-analysis of data from five published articles, 13 EUROCAT congenital anomaly population registers and two unpublished sources. RESULTS: Information was available on the number of DS live births occurring amongst 13,745 live births to women 45 years of age and over. Information was also available on DS pregnancies diagnosed prenatally that were subsequently terminated. These pregnancies were adjusted for expected fetal loss to estimate the number of live births that would have occurred in the absence of prenatal diagnoses, when a total of 471 DS live births were estimated to have occurred. The risk of a DS birth did not increase for women 45 years of age and over. The average risk was 34 per 1000 births (95% CI: 31-37). CONCLUSION: The risk of a DS live birth for women 45 years of age and over is considerably lower than has often been previously assumed. The most likely explanation is that women of this age are more likely to miscarry DS pregnancies than younger mothers.

Using Down syndrome serum screening results to predict low birthweight.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the use of prenatal maternal serum screening results for Down syndrome, for the prediction of low (<2500 g) and very low (<1500 g) birthweight. DESIGN: Record linkage of maternal serum screening results with the corresponding birth records. PARTICIPANTS: 42 259 women whose pregnancies had been screened for the risk of Down syndrome. SETTING: Three East London maternity units, between February 1989 and August 1998. RESULTS: Estimates were made of the effectiveness of single markers only for the prediction of low birthweight, and of multiple markers together with mother's weight and smoking habit. As reported previously, high levels of the single markers alpha-fetoprotein and total human chorionic gonadotrophin, inhibin A, and low levels of unconjugated oestriol were associated with low birthweight. However, the best prediction was obtained when multiple serum markers comprising alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and inhibin A were used in combination together with mother's weight and adjustment for smoking habit. For a false-positive rate of 5%, this combination predicted 23% of low birthweight and 39% of very low birthweight babies, possibly the best method of prediction to date. CONCLUSION: Prediction of low birthweight derived from Down syndrome screening could be used, for little extra cost, to advise on place of delivery or to select candidates for randomised clinical trials of low birthweight prevention.

Comparison of models of maternal age-specific risk for Down syndrome live births.

OBJECTIVES: To display and compare the different published formulae that specify the association between maternal age and the risk of a Down syndrome live birth. METHODS: Papers published since 1987 on the prevalence of Down syndrome live births in relation to maternal age were located using MEDLINE and the references given in other papers. The data series and the models fitted to them were plotted to obtain a visual idea of their similarities and differences. RESULTS: The observed and modelled age-specific rates for Down syndrome births were remarkably similar in all published series of data for women up to the age of 35, were reasonably similar for women aged 35 to 45, but differed for women older than 45. CONCLUSION: In practice, the overall small differences in age-related risk between the different studies did not materially affect the performance of antenatal screening for Down syndrome. If a choice is to be made, the analysis based on the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR) has marginal advantages since it is based on the largest data set and the corresponding model fits the data well. More data is needed to clarify the pattern of risk with maternal age among women over 45 years of age.

Revised estimates of the maternal age specific live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To revise the estimates of maternal age specific live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome in the absence of antenatal screening and selective termination using newly available data. SETTING AND DESIGN: Data were used from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR), which contains information on nearly all antenatally or postnatally diagnosed cases of Down's syndrome in which a karyotype was confirmed between 1989 and 1998 in England and Wales. It is the largest single series of data on the prevalence of Down's syndrome. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The prevalence does not continue increasing at an increasing rate with age above age 45 as has been previously assumed. Above this age the rate of increase declines with increasing age. The overall age pattern is sigmoidal. A new logit logistic model is proposed which fits the data well. The risk of a Down's syndrome live birth is given by: risk=1/(1+exp(7.330-4.211/(1+exp(-0.282x(age-37.23))))).

Mortality and cancer incidence in persons with Down's syndrome, their parents and siblings.

A cohort study of 1425 persons with Down's syndrome (DS), and of their parents (447 mothers, 435 fathers) and siblings (1176), was set up to investigate death rates from various causes and cancer incidence patterns. In individuals with DS the all-cause death rate was six times that of the national population (SMR = 622: 95% CI 559-693), the excess being attributable to many different causes. These included: leukaemia (SMR = 1304: 95% CI 651-2334); diabetes mellitus (SMR = 982: 95% CI 267-2515); Alzheimer's disease (SMR = 22028: 95% CI 7137-51326); epilepsy (SMR = 1727: 95% CI 744-3403); and congenital anomalies (SMR = 4987: 95% CI 4175-5955). The overall survival showed marked improvements for successive birth cohorts, particularly at young ages. For mothers and fathers of persons with DS, all-cause death rates were 20% lower than national rates and there were no significant excesses from any specific cause. For siblings, all-cause death rates were similar to national rates; the only condition with a significantly raised mortality ratio was colo-rectal cancer (SMR = 793: 95% CI 216-2031), but this may well be a chance finding.

Mortality and cancer incidence in persons with numerical sex chromosome abnormalities: a cohort study.

Mortality and cancer incidence were assessed in a cohort of 1373 patients with numerical sex chromosome abnormalities diagnosed at three cytogenetics centres in Britain during 1959-90, and were compared with expectations from national rates. Four hundred patients with Turner's syndrome were followed, of whom 62 died, with a relative risk (RR) of death of 4.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.22-5.39). Turner's syndrome patients had greatly raised risks of death from diseases of the nervous, cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and genitourinary systems. One hundred and sixty three deaths occurred among 646 patients with Klinefelter's syndrome with a 47,XXY constitution, giving an RR of 1.63 (1.40-1.91). Mortality in these patients was significantly raised from diabetes and diseases of the cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems. There was also significantly increased mortality for patients with X polysomy (RR = 2.11 (1.43-3.02)) and Y polysomy (RR = 1.90 (1.20-2.85)), the former with significantly increased mortality from cardiovascular disease and the latter from respiratory disease. The only significantly raised risks of cancer incidence or mortality in the cohort were for lung cancer and breast cancer in patients with Klinefelter's syndrome with a 47,XXY constitution, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in men with more than three sex chromosomes.

Socioeconomic inequalities in risk of congenital anomaly.

AIMS: To investigate socioeconomic inequalities in the risk of congenital anomalies, focusing on risk of specific anomaly subgroups. METHODS: A total of 858 cases of congenital anomaly and 1764 non-malformed control births were collected between 1986 and 1993 from four UK congenital malformation registers, for the purposes of a European multicentre case control study on congenital anomaly risk near hazardous waste landfill sites. As a measure of socioeconomic status, cases and controls were given a value for the area level Carstairs deprivation index, by linking the postcode of residence at birth to census enumeration districts (areas of approximately 150 households). RESULTS: Risk of non-chromosomal anomalies increased with increasing socioeconomic deprivation. The risk in the most deprived quintile of the deprivation index was 40% higher than in the most affluent quintile. Some malformation subgroups also showed increasing risk with increasing deprivation: all cardiac defects, malformations of the cardiac septa, malformations of the digestive system, and multiple malformations. No evidence for socioeconomic variation was found for other non-chromosomal malformation groups, including neural tube defects and oral clefts. A decreasing risk with increasing deprivation found for all chromosomal malformations and Down's syndrome in unadjusted analyses, occurred mainly as a result of differences in the maternal age distribution between social classes. CONCLUSION: Our data, although based on limited numbers of cases and geographical coverage, suggest that more deprived populations have a higher risk of congenital anomalies of non-chromosomal origin and some specific anomalies. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings and to explore their aetiological implications.

National Confidential Enquiry into counselling for genetic disorders by non-geneticists: general recommendations and specific standards for improving care.

OBJECTIVES: To assess genetic counselling by non-geneticists and to improve clinical practice. DESIGN: National retrospective review of casenotes. SETTING: Antenatal, paediatric, medical, and surgical units. SAMPLE: 1293 genetic events were identified, involving potentially avoidable cases of Down's syndrome, neural tube defect, cystic fibrosis, beta thalassaemia major and late onset medullary carcinoma of the thyroid (multiple endocrine neoplasia). Notes were available for review in 888 (69%) of these cases. OUTCOMES: Documented counselling, offers of relevant genetic screening and prenatal diagnosis. RESULTS: Clinical audit was frustrated by poor quality hospital records lacking evidence of counselling. Non-geneticist clinicians concentrate on the management of disease, and may overlook the need for counselling and recording data which patients will later need for decisions about reproduction or disease prevention. Counselling, screening and prenatal diagnosis were sometimes impossible because of late booking in pregnancy, or because of delayed diagnosis of an earlier affected child with cystic fibrosis. There are marked regional inequalities of access to genetic services, particularly for minority ethnic groups with increased risks of thalassaemia. Although patients were selected for this enquiry because they had known high risks of genetic disorders, on average less than half were referred to medical geneticists. General recommendations relevant for improvement of care for patients and families with medical genetic needs and those specific for each disorder are given. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of the quality of genetic care becomes increasingly important as genetic counselling spreads beyond the narrow confines of specialist genetic services. Even though the events studied in this enquiry largely occurred between 1991 and 1995, there is little reason to believe that clinicians in general have become markedly better trained in medical genetics. The General Medical Council and Medical Royal Colleges should urgently consider the need for a national policy for improving undergraduate and postgraduate medical, nursing and midwifery education in genetics. Commissioners of clinical services should require that genetic management be at least as well-documented as surgical operations, drug records and informed consent, perhaps by using a nationally agreed pro-forma for prenatal diagnosis. Regular audit of counselling provided by non-geneticists is necessary to confirm that clinical improvements are occurring and standards are being met. The Confidential Enquiry provides data for a systematic approach to clinical governance of genetics in all specialities. This sets the scene for multi-speciality NHS genetic services capable of giving patients greater consistency both in access and in quality.

Is there evidence of clustering in Down syndrome?

BACKGROUND: Associations between environmental hazards and the occurrence of congenital anomalies may be detectable by seeking evidence of non-random occurrence of cases (clusters). There have been a number of anecdotal reports of occurrences of clusters of Down syndrome (DS). METHODS: Data from a national register of cytogenetic diagnoses of Down syndrome births and legal terminations occurring between 1989 and 1995 were used to examine the possibility of clustering. Space-time clustering at Regional Health Authority (RHA) level was examined by comparing the expected monthly number of DS pregnancies given the maternal age distribution, with the observed numbers. Knox's method was used to determine if any clustering of RHA of unexpectedly high prevalence had occurred. Seasonality was also investigated by comparing monthly expected and observed numbers of DS pregnancies. Time clustering was examined by using the scan statistic to determine whether a statistically significant excess of pregnancies in any 3-month period occurred in any individual or adjacent groups of District Health Authority (DHA). RESULTS: The numbers of DS pregnancies were no higher than expected (P < 0.05) in the same RHA over consecutive months. There was no evidence of any seasonality of DS pregnancies (P > 0.5). Only two individual DHA and three pairs of adjacent DHA had significantly high scan statistics (P < 0.03), but as over 400 statistical tests had been completed 12 clusters would be expected to have occurred due to chance alone. CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of any space-time clustering in DS at DHA level.

Intergenerational influences affecting birth outcome. I. Birthweight for gestational age in the children of the 1958 British birth cohort.

There is considerable literature on intergenerational influences on birthweight. Few studies have been able to investigate such influences on the more basic measures of birthweight for gestational age and gestational age itself. This paper considers fetal growth. The investigations are derived from the 1958 British birth cohort followed from birth to age 33 years. Included were questions on physical and social characteristics of each parent and the grandparents, and birth details of parent and first child. In the present study, fetal growth in non-preterm babies, after adjustment for the known effects of smoking and sex of the child, is explained best by factors relating to the parent's own growth, primarily in utero, but also to adulthood. There are small additional effects of education or social class but not of parent's gestational age. Only 15% of the variability in the child's fetal growth can be explained by the mother's characteristics and approximately 7% by the father's. Parent's own fetal growth accounts for nearly half of the variability if unadjusted for other factors and nearly a third after adjustment for sex of child, smoking, parental height and weight, maternal age at menarche and paternal age at first birth. Parental fetal growth makes the greatest anthropometric contribution.