A time-to-event modelling of sputum conversion within two months after antituberculosis initiation among drug-susceptible smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients: Implementation of internal and external validation.

Delayed sputum conversion has been associated with a higher risk of treatment failure or relapse among drug susceptible smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients. Several contributing factors have been identified in many studies, but the results varied across regions and countries. Therefore, the current study aimed to develop a predictive model that explained the factors affecting time to sputum conversion within two months after initiating antituberculosis agents among Malaysian with drug-susceptible smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients. Retrospective data of pulmonary tuberculosis patients followed up at a tertiary hospital in the Northern region of Malaysia from 2013 until 2018 were collected and analysed. Nonlinear mixed-effect modelling software (NONMEM 7.3.0) was used to develop parametric survival models. The final model was further validated using Kaplan-Meier-visual predictive check (KM-VPC) approach, kernel-based hazard rate estimation method and sampling-importance resampling (SIR) method. A total of 224 patients were included in the study, with 34.4 % (77/224) of the patients remained positive at the end of 2 months of the intensive phase. Gompertz hazard function best described the data. The hazard of sputum conversion decreased by 39 % and 33 % for moderate and advanced lesions as compared to minimal baseline of chest X-ray severity, respectively (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 0.61; 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI), (0.44-0.84) and 0.67, 95 % CI (0.53-0.84)). Meanwhile, the hazard also decreased by 59 % (aHR, 0.41; 95 % CI, (0.23-0.73)) and 48 % (aHR, 0.52; 95 % CI, (0.35-0.79)) between active and former drug abusers as compared to non-drug abuser, respectively. The successful development of the internally and externally validated final model allows a better estimation of the time to sputum conversion and provides a better understanding of the relationship with its predictors.

Semi-physiological Pharmacokinetic Model of Clozapine and Norclozapine in Healthy, Non-smoking Volunteers: The Impact of Race and Genetics.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Clozapine is the medication of choice for treatment-resistant schizophrenia. However, it has a complex metabolism and unexplained interindividual variability. The current work aims to develop a pharmacokinetic model of clozapine and norclozapine in non-smokers and assess the impact of demographic and genetic predictors. METHODS: Healthy volunteers were recruited in a population pharmacokinetic study. Blood samples were collected at 30 min and 1, 2, 3, 5 and 8 h following a single flat dose of clozapine (12.5 mg). The clozapine and norclozapine concentrations were measured via high-performance liquid chromatography-ultraviolet method. A semi-physiological pharmacokinetic model of clozapine and norclozapine was developed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Clinical and genetic predictors were evaluated, including CYP1A2 (rs762551) and ABCB1 (rs2032582), using restriction fragment length polymorphism. RESULTS: A total of 270 samples were collected from 33 participants. The data were best described using a two-compartment model for clozapine and a two-compartment model for norclozapine with first-order absorption and elimination and pre-systemic metabolism. The estimated (relative standard error) clearance of clozapine and norclozapine were 27 L h-1 (31.5 %) and 19.6 L h-1 (30%), respectively. Clozapine clearance was lower in sub-Saharan Africans (n = 4) and higher in Caucasians (n = 9) than Asians (n = 20). Participants with CYP1A2 (rs762551) (n = 18) and ABCB1 (rs2032582) (n = 12) mutant alleles had lower clozapine clearance in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to develop a semi-physiological pharmacokinetic model of clozapine and norclozapine accounting for the pre-systemic metabolism. Asians required lower doses of clozapine as compared with Caucasians, while clozapine pharmacokinetics in sub-Saharan Africans should be further investigated in larger trials.

Genetic and clinical predictors of rifapentine and isoniazid pharmacokinetics in paediatrics with tuberculosis infection.

OBJECTIVES: Twelve weekly doses of rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP regimen) are recommended for TB preventive therapy in children with TB infection. However, they present with variability in the pharmacokinetic profiles. The current study aimed to develop a pharmacokinetic model of rifapentine and isoniazid in 12 children with TB infection using NONMEM. METHODS: Ninety plasma and 41 urine samples were collected at Week 4 of treatment. Drug concentrations were measured using a validated HPLC-UV method. MassARRAY® SNP genotyping was used to investigate genetic factors, including P-glycoprotein (ABCB1), solute carrier organic anion transporter B1 (SLCO1B1), arylacetamide deacetylase (AADAC) and N-acetyl transferase (NAT2). Clinically relevant covariates were also analysed. RESULTS: A two-compartment model for isoniazid and a one-compartment model for rifapentine with transit compartment absorption and first-order elimination were the best models for describing plasma and urine data. The estimated (relative standard error, RSE) of isoniazid non-renal clearance was 3.52 L·h-1 (23.1%), 2.91 L·h-1 (19.6%), and 2.58 L·h-1 (20.0%) in NAT2 rapid, intermediate and slow acetylators. A significant proportion of the unchanged isoniazid was cleared renally (2.7 L·h-1; 8.0%), while the unchanged rifapentine was cleared primarily through non-renal routes (0.681 L·h-1; 3.6%). Participants with the ABCB1 mutant allele had lower bioavailability of rifapentine, while food prolonged the mean transit time of isoniazid. CONCLUSIONS: ABCB1 mutant allele carriers may require higher rifapentine doses; however, this must be confirmed in larger trials. Food did not affect overall exposure to isoniazid and only delayed absorption time.

Predictive model of recurrent ischemic stroke: model development from real-world data.

Background: There are established correlations between risk factors and ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence; however, does the hazard of recurrent IS change over time? What is the predicted baseline hazard of recurrent IS if there is no influence of variable predictors? This study aimed to quantify the hazard of recurrent IS when the variable predictors were set to zero and quantify the secondary prevention influence on the hazard of recurrent ischemic stroke. Methods: In the population cohort involved in this study, data were extracted from 7,697 patients with a history of first IS attack registered with the National Neurology Registry of Malaysia from 2009 to 2016. A time-to-recurrent IS model was developed using NONMEM version 7.5. Three baseline hazard models were fitted into the data. The best model was selected using maximum likelihood estimation, clinical plausibility, and visual predictive checks. Results: Within the maximum 7.37 years of follow-up, 333 (4.32%) patients had at least one incident of recurrent IS. The data were well described by the Gompertz hazard model. Within the first 6 months after the index IS, the hazard of recurrent IS was predicted to be 0.238, and 6 months after the index attack, it reduced to 0.001. The presence of typical risk factors such as hyperlipidemia [HR, 2.22 (95%CI: 1.81-2.72)], hypertension [HR, 2.03 (95%CI: 1.52-2.71)], and ischemic heart disease [HR, 2.10 (95%CI: 1.64-2.69)] accelerated the hazard of recurrent IS, but receiving antiplatelets (APLTs) upon stroke decreased this hazard [HR, 0.59 (95%CI: 0.79-0.44)]. Conclusion: The hazard of recurrent IS magnitude differs during different time intervals based on the concomitant risk factors and secondary prevention.

Pharmacometric modeling of drug adverse effects: an application of mixture models in schizophrenia spectrum disorder patients treated with clozapine.

Clozapine has superior efficacy to other antipsychotics yet is underutilized due to its adverse effects, such as neutropenia, weight gain, and tachycardia. The current investigation aimed to introduce a pharmacometric approach to simultaneously model drug adverse effects, with examples from schizophrenia spectrum patients receiving clozapine. The adverse drug effects were represented as a function of time by incorporating a mixture model to describe individual susceptibility to the adverse effects. Applications of the proposed method were presented by analyzing retrospective data from patients' medical records in Psychiatric Clinic, Penang General Hospital. Tachycardia, weight gain, and absolute neutrophils count (ANC) decrease were best described by an offset, a piecewise linear, and a transient surge function, respectively. 42.9% of the patients had all the adverse effects, including weight gain (0.01 kg/m2 increase every week over a baseline of 24.7 kg/m2 until stabilizing at 279 weeks), ANC decrease (20% decrease from 4540 cells/µL week 12-20.8), and tachycardia (14% constant increase over a baseline of 87.9 bpm for a clozapine maintenance dose of 450 mg daily). 32.5% of the patients had only tachycardia, while the remaining 24.6% had none of the adverse effects. A new pharmacometric approach was proposed to describe adverse drug effects with examples of clozapine-induced weight gain, ANC drop, and tachycardia. The current approach described the longitudinal time changes of continuous data while assessing patient susceptibility. Furthermore, the model revealed the possible co-existence of ANC drop and weight gain; thus, neutrophil monitoring might predict future changes in body weight.

A Retrospective Study on Tuberculous Lymphadenitis: A Finding from Multicenter Referral Hospitals.

Background: Extrapulmonary tuberculosis represents about 14% of all cases of tuberculosis (TB) in Malaysia. The aim of the study includes the evaluation of sociodemographic factors, clinical manifestations, comorbidities among patients with tuberculous lymphadenitis and their treatment outcomes. Methods: The retrospective study was conducted from 2006 to 2008. Data on sociodemographic along with histopathological results were collected. The signs and symptoms were also recorded from TB registers, treatment cards, and TB medical personal files using the standard data collection tool. Among multiple variables, the significant factors identified by univariate analysis were included in the multivariate logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios with the 95% confidence intervals. The statistically significant P value was considered <0.05. Results: There were 348 (57%) males, and on the other hand, 262 (43%) females which shows almost equal incidence rate of lymphadenitis in both genders. The age group was observed from 2 to 83 years old. Therefore, the age group between 26 and 35 years showed 194 (31.8%) patients diagnosed with lymphadenitis and followed by 16-25 years (21%). The mean age was found as 34.3 ± 14.6 years were majorly reported with positive diagnosis. One hundred and ninety-six (32.1%) Malay population were found with tuberculous lymphadenitis followed by the Chinese population of 148 (24.3%). The other prominent races were Pilipino, Indonesians, and other expatriates. Geographically, patients were from 386 (63.3%) urban population were found positive for lymphadenitis and over 224 (36.7%) population of the rural region. The treatment outcome was observed 444 (72.8%) with successful treatment. The World Health Organization states the types of treatment failures, and accordingly, 85 (13.9%) patients were continued with the therapy that can be due to noncompliance or relapse of TB. Among the unsuccessful outcomes, 194 patients of age group 26-35 years, 65 (33.5%) were reported and 38 (29.7%) patients out of 128 between ages of 16-25 years. Blood test results showed erythrocyte sedimentation rate >10 in 280 (45.9%) patients. Therefore, among 280, there were 115 (41.1%) patients were found to have unsuccessful treatment showing very strong association with P < 0.001. Conclusion: The finding signifies that effect of weight loss on poor treatment outcomes' and active screening measures for patients with comorbidities are therefore recommended in patients with tuberculous lymphadenitis along with improvements in the diagnosis and early management of comorbidities complications. As young age group was found to have poor or unsuccessful treatment outcomes and required aggressive strategy together with educating patients can further increase the treatment success rate.

Time-Dissociated Pharmacokinetic Pharmacodynamic Model of Cyclosporine Among Malaysian Renal Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Cyclosporine is an essential component of many immunosuppressive regimens. However, its pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling has not been widely investigated. This study aims to develop a time-dissociated PKPD model of cyclosporine in renal transplant patients. METHODS: Medical records of renal transplant patients at Penang General Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. A time-dissociated PKPD model with covariate effects was developed using NONMEM to evaluate renal graft function response, quantified as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), toward the cyclosporine cumulative exposure (area under the concentration-time curve). The final model was integrated into a tool to predict the potential outcome. Individual eGFR predictions were evaluated based on the clinical response recorded as acute rejection/nephrotoxicity events. RESULTS: A total of 1256 eGFR readings with 2473 drug concentrations were obtained from 107 renal transplant patients receiving cyclosporine. An Emax drug effect with a linear drug toxicity model best described the data. The baseline renal graft level (E0), maximum effect (Emax), area under the concentration-time curve achieving 50% of the maximum effect, and nephrotoxicity slope were estimated as 12.9 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, 50.7 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, 1740 ng·h·mL-1, and 0.00033, respectively. The hemoglobin level was identified as a significant covariate affecting the E0. The model discerned acute rejection from nephrotoxicity in 19/24 cases. CONCLUSIONS: A time-dissociated PKPD model successfully described a large number of observations and was used to develop an online tool to predict renal graft response. This may help discern early rejection from nephrotoxicity, especially for patients unwilling to undergo a biopsy or those waiting for biopsy results.

A Repeated Time-to-Positive Symptoms Improvement among Malaysian Patients with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders Treated with Clozapine.

Clozapine remains the drug of choice for resistant schizophrenia. However, its dose-response relationship is still controversial. The current investigation aimed to develop a repeated time-to-positive symptoms improvement following the onset of clozapine treatment in Malaysian schizophrenia spectrum disorder patients. Data from patients' medical records in the Psychiatric Clinic, Penang General Hospital, were retrospectively analyzed. Several parametric survival models were evaluated using nonlinear mixed-effect modeling software (NONMEM 7.3.0). Kaplan-Meier-visual predictive check (KM-VPC) and sampling-importance resampling (SIR) methods were used to validate the final model. A total of 116 patients were included in the study, with a mean follow-up of 306 weeks. Weibull hazard function best fitted the data. The hazard of positive symptoms improvement decreased 4% for every one-year increase in age over the median of 41 years (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 0.96; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), (0.93-0.98)). However, patients receiving a second atypical antipsychotic agent had four-folds higher hazard (aHR, 4.01; 95% CI, (1.97-7.17)). The hazard increased 2% (aHR, 1.02; 95% CI, (1.01-1.03)) for every 1 g increase in the clozapine six months cumulative dose over the median of 34 g. The developed model provides essential information on the hazard of positive symptoms improvement after the first clozapine dose administration, including modifiable predictors of high clinical importance.

Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Obese Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-based Study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and obesity are established risk factors for stroke. The current study aimed to assess risk factors of ischemic stroke recurrence in diabetic patients based on their body mass index (BMI). METHODS: A total of 4005 diabetic patients who had a history of ischemic stroke were identified in a retrospective cross-sectional dataset from the Malaysian National Neurology Registry. Patients were classified based on BMI, and multivariable regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between risk factors and recurrent ischemic stroke. RESULTS: Among obese patients, those with ischemic heart disease (aOR, 1.873; 95% CI, 1.131-3.103), received formal education (aOR, 2.236; 95% CI, 1.306-3.830), and received anti-diabetic medication (aOR, 1.788; 95% CI, 1.180-2.708) had a higher stroke recurrence risk, while receiving angiotensin receptors blockers (aOR, 0.261; 95% CI, 0.126-0.543) lowered the odds of recurrence. Overweight patients with hypertension (aOR, 1.011; 95% CI, 1.002-1.019) for over 10 years (aOR, 3.385; 95% CI, 1.088-10.532) and diabetes prior to the first stroke (aOR, 1.823; 95% CI, 1.020-3.259) as well as those received formal education (aOR, 2.403; 95% CI, 1.126-5.129) had higher odds of stroke recurrence, while receiving angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (aOR, 0.244; 95% CI, 0.111-0.538) lowered the recurrence risk. Normal weight East Malaysians (aOR, 0.351; 95% CI, 0.164-0.750) receiving beta-blockers (aOR, 0.410; 95% CI, 0.174-0.966) had lower odds of stroke recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Ischemic heart disease, hypertension, receiving anti-hypertensive agents, and educational level were independent predictors of recurrent stroke in obese patients. Managing the modifiable risk factors can decrease the odds of stroke recurrence.

Risk factors for mortality among COVID-19 patients.

AIMS: COVID-19 is a current global pandemic. However, comprehensive global data analyses for its mortality risk factors are lacking. The current investigation aimed to assess the predictors of death among COVID-19 patients from worldwide open access data. METHODS: A total of 828 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with definite outcomes were retrospectively identified from open access individual-level worldwide data. Univariate followed by multivariable regression analysis were used to evaluate the association between potential risk factors and mortality. RESULTS: Majority of the patients were males 59.1% located in Asia 69.3%. Based on the data, older age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.079; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), 1.064-1.095 per year increase), males (aOR, 1.607; 95% CI, 1.002-2.576), patients with hypertension (aOR, 3.576; 95% CI, 1.694-7.548), diabetes mellitus (aOR, 12.234; 95% CI, 4.126-36.272), and patients located in America (aOR, 7.441; 95% CI, 3.546-15.617) were identified as the risk factors of mortality among COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Males, advanced age, hypertension patients, diabetes mellitus patients, and patients located in America were the independent risk factors of death among COVID-19 patients. Extra attention is required to be given to these factors and additional studies on the underlying mechanisms of these effects.

Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Cyclosporine Among Malaysian Renal Transplant Patients: An Evaluation of Methods to Handle Missing Doses in Conventional Drug-Monitoring Data.

Cyclosporine is a primary drug in transplant immunosuppression regimens. It has a narrow therapeutic index and variable pharmacokinetic behavior. This study aimed to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of cyclosporine in Malaysian renal transplant recipients as well as to evaluate the performances of different methodsfor handling missing doses. A total of 2804 concentrationts predose and 2 hours after doses were collected retrospectively from 113 renal transplant patients on cyclosporine in Penang General Hospital. Model structure and pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling software. Missing doses were handled using different methods to evaluate their performance. Covariate analysis was performed using stepwise forward addition (P < .05) followed by backward elimination (P < .001). Prediction-corrected visual predictive check and sampling-importance resampling methods were used to validate the final model. A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. All methods to handle missing doses performed well with the missing dose method being superior to other methods and thus was applied in the final model. Cyclosporine clearance (CL/F) was estimated as 15.1 L/h, and volume of distribution (V/F) was 108 L. Postoperative time, sex, and calcium channel blockers were identified as significant covariates on CL/F, whereas sex and cholesterol level were identified as significant covariates on V/F. This is the first population pharmacokinetic model developed in Malaysian renal transplant patients using a large sample with an evaluation of different methods to handle missing doses in less informative conventional therapeutic drug-monitoring data.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Clozapine: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Clozapine is a second-generation antipsychotic drug that is considered the most effective treatment for refractory schizophrenia. Several clozapine population pharmacokinetic models have been introduced in the last decades. Thus, a systematic review was performed (i) to compare published pharmacokinetics models and (ii) to summarize and explore identified covariates influencing the clozapine pharmacokinetics models. METHODS: A search of publications for population pharmacokinetic analyses of clozapine either in healthy volunteers or patients from inception to April 2019 was conducted in PubMed and SCOPUS databases. Reviews, methodology articles, in vitro and animal studies, and noncompartmental analysis were excluded. RESULTS: Twelve studies were included in this review. Clozapine pharmacokinetics was described as one-compartment with first-order absorption and elimination in most of the studies. Significant interindividual variations of clozapine pharmacokinetic parameters were found in most of the included studies. Age, sex, smoking status, and cytochrome P450 1A2 were found to be the most common identified covariates affecting these parameters. External validation was only performed in one study to determine the predictive performance of the models. CONCLUSIONS: Large pharmacokinetic variability remains despite the inclusion of several covariates. This can be improved by including other potential factors such as genetic polymorphisms, metabolic factors, and significant drug-drug interactions in a well-designed population pharmacokinetic model in the future, taking into account the incorporation of larger sample size and more stringent sampling strategy. External validation should also be performed to the previously published models to compare their predictive performances.