Forest fire probability under ENSO conditions in a semi-arid region: a case study in Guanajuato.

Fires can pose a threat to forest ecosystems when those ecosystems are not fire-adapted or when forest community conditions make them vulnerable to wildfires. Thus, investigating fire-prone environmental conditions is urgently needed to create action plans that preserve these ecosystems. In this sense, climate variables can determine the environmental conditions favorable for forest fires. Our study confirms that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is an essential climate indicator for forest fires, as it is related to maximum temperatures and low humidity, representing the stress conditions for vegetation prone to fires. This study explores the extent to which ENSO phases can modulate climatic conditions that lead to high VPD over Guanajuato, a semi-arid region in central Mexico, during the dry season (March-April-May). Using fire occurrence data from MODIS (2000-2019) and Landsat 5 (1998-1999), we developed a climatic probability model for the occurrence of forest fires using VPD estimated from ERA5 reanalysis for each ENSO phase. We found that VPD and the occurrence of forest fires were higher during El Niño than under Neutral and La Niña years, with a higher risk of forest fire occurrence in Guanajuato's southern region. This study concludes that it is necessary to implement regional and local fire management plans, especially where the largest number of natural protected areas is located.

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries.

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others.

Intervenção coronária percutânea por acesso transradial em pacientes idosos vs. não-idosos / Percutaneous coronary intervention using transradial access in elderly vs. non-elderly patients

INTRODUÇÃO: A via radial é objeto de interesse crescente de cardiologistas intervencionistas, por oferecer diversas vantagens, entre elas a redução da taxa de sangramento e eventos cardíacos adversos maiores (ECAM). Entretanto, apesar de os idosos apresentarem maior risco de sangramento da via de acesso, a utilização da via radial é motivo de controvérsias, pela maior complexidade anatômica desses pacientes. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo, que incluiu pacientes submetidos a intervenção coronária percutânea (ICP) por via radial, divididos nos grupos idoso (> 65 anos) e não-idoso (< 65 anos). Foram analisados os perfis clínico, angiográfico e do procedimento, além da evolução tanto inicial como tardia. RESULTADOS: No grupo idoso foram incluídos 131 pacientes (145 ICPs) e no grupo não-idoso, 149 pacientes (176 ICPs). O grupo idoso apresentou mais frequentemente menor índice de massa corporal e de tabagistas, e maiores taxas de insuficiência renal crônica, doença arterial periférica, quadros clínicos estáveis, doença multiarterial e lesões calcificadas. Não houve diferença nas taxas de troca de via de acesso (4,8% vs. 3,4%), tempo de fluoroscopia (15,3 ± 10,3 minutos vs. 16,1 ± 10,3 minutos), tempo do procedimento (40,6 ± 26,4 minutos vs. 46,4 ± 53,6 minutos), sucesso tanto angiográfico (96,3% vs. 97,5%) como clínico (94,5% vs. 95,4%), ECAM (3,4% vs. 3,4%) e sangramentos (0,21% vs. 0,6%) na fase hospitalar. No seguimento tardio também não houve diferença nas taxas de ECAM (9,6% vs. 11%). CONCLUSÕES: Apesar da maior complexidade tanto clínica como angiográfica, a realização de ICP por via radial em idosos é segura e eficaz, com elevado índice de sucesso do procedimento e baixa taxa de complicações hospitalares e tardias.

BACKGROUND: Radial access is the object of increasing interest for interventional cardiologists, providing several advantages, including a reduction of bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) rates. However, even though elderly patients have a greater risk of access site bleedings, the use of the radial approach is controversial, due to the greater anatomical complexity of these patients. METHODS: Retrospective study including patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCIs) using the radial access divided into an elderly (> 65 years) and a non-elderly (< 65 years) group. Clinical, angiographic and procedural characteristics as well as early and late follow-up outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS: The elderly group included 131 patients (145 PCIs) and the non-elderly group, 149 patients (176 PCIs). The elderly group presented lower body mass index and fewer smokers and higher rates of chronic renal failure, peripheral arterial disease, stable coronary artery disease, multivessel disease and calcified lesions. There was no difference in the rate of access-site crossover (4.8% vs. 3.4%), fluoroscopy time (15.3 ± 10.3 minutes vs. 16.1 ± 10.3 minutes), procedure time (40.6 ± 26.4 minutes vs 46.4 ± 53.6 minutes), angiographic (96.3% vs 97.5%) and clinical (94.5% vs 95.4%) success, MACE (3.4% vs 3.4%) and bleedings (0.21% vs 0.6%) during hospitalization. In the late follow-up there was no difference in the MACE rates (9.6% vs 11%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the greater clinical and angiographic complexity, PCI using the radial access is safe and effective, with a high procedural success rate and low in-hospital and late follow-up complication rates.

Increasing development in the surroundings of U.S. National Park Service holdings jeopardizes park effectiveness.

Protected areas are cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, but they are in danger of becoming islands in a sea of human dominated landscapes. Our question was if protected areas may even foster development in their surroundings because they provide amenities that attract development, thus causing the isolation of the ecosystems they were designed to protect. Our study analyzed historic aerial photographs and topographical maps to reconstruct road development and building growth within and around Indiana Dunes and Pictured Rocks National Lakeshores in the U.S. Great Lakes region from 1938 to 2005, and to estimate the effects of park creation in 1966 on changes in landscape patterns. Historic U.S. census housing density data were used as a baseline to compare observed changes to. Our results showed that park establishment was effective in reducing and stopping the fragmenting impact of development within park boundaries. However, increased amenity levels following park establishment led to enhanced development in the surroundings of both parks. In the extreme case of Indiana Dunes, building density outside the park increased from 45 to 200buildings/km(2) and road density almost doubled from 3.6 to 6.6km/km(2) from 1938 to 2005. Development rates of change were much higher than in the broader landscape, particularly after park establishment. The potential amenity effect was up to 9500 new buildings in the 3.2-km zone around Indiana Dunes between 1966 and 2005. For Pictured Rocks the absolute effect was smaller but up to 70% of the observed building growth was potentially due to amenity effects. Our findings highlight the need for conservation planning at broader scales, incorporating areas beyond the boundaries of protected areas.