Dispersal limitation and fire feedbacks maintain mesic savannas in Madagascar.

Madagascar is regarded by some as one of the most degraded landscapes on Earth, with estimates suggesting that 90% of forests have been lost to indigenous Tavy farming. However, the extent of this degradation has been challenged: paleoecological data, phylogeographic analysis, and species richness indicate that pyrogenic savannas in central Madagascar predate human arrival, even though rainfall is sufficient to allow forest expansion into central Madagascar. These observations raise a question-if savannas in Madagascar are not anthropogenic, how then are they maintained in regions where the climate can support forest? Observation reveals that the savanna-forest boundary coincides with a dispersal barrier-the escarpment of the Central Plateau. Using a stepping-stone model, we show that in a limited dispersal landscape, a stable savanna-forest boundary can form because of fire-vegetation feedbacks. This phenomenon, referred to as range pinning, could explain why eastern lowland forests have not expanded into the mesic savannas of the Central Highlands. This work challenges the view that highland savannas in Madagascar are derived by human-lit fires and, more importantly, suggests that partial dispersal barriers and strong nonlinear feedbacks can pin biogeographical boundaries over a wide range of environmental conditions, providing a temporary buffer against climate change.

Comment on "The global tree restoration potential".

Bastin et al's estimate (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) that tree planting for climate change mitigation could sequester 205 gigatonnes of carbon is approximately five times too large. Their analysis inflated soil organic carbon gains, failed to safeguard against warming from trees at high latitudes and elevations, and considered afforestation of savannas, grasslands, and shrublands to be restoration.

Palaeo-trajectories of forest savannization in the southern Congo.

Tropical savannah and forest are thought to represent alternative stable states in ecosystem structure in some climates. The implication is that biomes are maintained by positive feedbacks, e.g. with fire, and that historical distributions could play a role in determining modern ones. In this context, climate alone does not govern transitions between biomes, and understanding the causes and pathways of such transitions becomes crucial. Here, we use a multi-proxy analysis of a 2000-year core to evaluate modes of transition in vegetation structure and fire regimes. We demonstrate a first transition ca 1540 BP, when a cyclic fire regime entered a forested landscape, eventually resulting, by ca 1060 BP, in a transition to a more open savannah-like or mosaicked structure. This pattern may parallel currently accelerating fire regimes in tropical forests suggesting that fires can savannize forests, but perhaps more slowly than feared. Finally, ca 540 BP, a drought combined with anthropogenic influences resulted in a conclusive transition to savannah, probably resembling the modern landscape in the region. We show here that fire interacted with drought to transition forest to savannah, suggesting that disturbance by fire can be a major driver of biome change.

A 2000-year sediment record reveals rapidly changing sedimentation and land use since the 1960s in the Upper Mara-Serengeti Ecosystem.

The Mara River basin is a trans-boundary basin of international importance. It forms the headwaters of the Nile River and serves as the primary dry season water source for an estimated 1.1 million rural people and the largest remaining overland migration of 1.4 million wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem. Changes throughout the basin are impacting the quantity and quality of the Mara River, yet the historical context of environmental conditions in the basin is not well known. We collected sediment cores throughout the wetland at the mouth of the Mara River, and we used isotopic dating methods and a suite of analyses to examine historical patterns of sediment quantity and source, mercury contamination, and carbon and nutrient loading. Our results show that ecological conditions in the Mara River basin were fairly stable over paleoecological time scales (2000-1000 years before present), but there has been a period of rapid change in the basin over the last 250 years, particularly since the 1960s. A shift in the source and quantity of sediments in the river began in the late 1700s and became much more pronounced in the 1950s and 1960s, coincident with increasing mercury concentrations. The quantity of sediment from the Upper Mara increased, particularly since 1960, but the proportion of total sediment from this region decreased as the Talek and Middle Mara portions of the basin began producing more sediment. The decadal oscillation in sediment accumulation was congruent with known periods of extreme precipitation events. Carbon and nitrogen loading also increased since the 1960s, and the shift in the isotopic ratio of nitrogen provides evidence for increased anthropogenic loading. Altogether, these data likely reflect patterns of change also experienced in other basins throughout East Africa.

Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1900.

Accurate estimates of historical forest extent and associated deforestation rates are crucial for quantifying tropical carbon cycles and formulating conservation policy. In Africa, data-driven estimates of historical closed-canopy forest extent and deforestation at the continental scale are lacking, and existing modelled estimates diverge substantially. Here, we synthesize available palaeo-proxies and historical maps to reconstruct forest extent in tropical Africa around 1900, when European colonization accelerated markedly, and compare these historical estimates with modern forest extent to estimate deforestation. We find that forests were less extensive in 1900 than bioclimatic models predict. Resultantly, across tropical Africa, ~ 21.7% of forests have been deforested, yielding substantially slower deforestation than previous estimates (35-55%). However, deforestation was heterogeneous: West and East African forests have undergone almost complete decline (~ 83.3 and 93.0%, respectively), while Central African forests have expanded at the expense of savannahs (~ 1.4% net forest expansion, with ~ 135,270 km2 of savannahs encroached). These results suggest that climate alone does not determine savannah and forest distributions and that many savannahs hitherto considered to be degraded forests are instead relatively old. These data-driven reconstructions of historical biome distributions will inform tropical carbon cycle estimates, carbon mitigation initiatives and conservation planning in both forest and savannah systems.

Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change.

Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

Land-use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa.

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R(2)  = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.