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SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape. One Sentence SummaryAnalysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in King County, Washington show that diverse areas in the same metropolitan region can have different epidemic dynamics.
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Despite the continued spread of SARS-CoV-2 and emergence of variants of concern (VOC) that are capable of escaping preexisting immunity, therapeutic options are underutilized. In addition to preventing severe disease in high-risk patients, antivirals may contribute to interrupting transmission chains. The FDA has granted emergency use authorizations for two oral drugs, molnupiravir and paxlovid. Initial clinical trials suggested an efficacy advantage of paxlovid, giving it a standard-of-care-like status in the United States. However, recent retrospective clinical studies suggested a more comparable efficacy of both drugs in preventing complicated disease and case-fatalities in older adults. For a direct efficacy comparison under controlled conditions, we assessed potency of both drugs against SARS-CoV-2 in two relevant animal models; the Roborovski dwarf hamster model for severe COVID-19 in high-risk patients and the ferret model of upper respiratory tract disease and transmission. After infection of dwarf hamsters with VOC omicron, paxlovid and molnupiravir were efficacious in mitigating severe disease and preventing death. However, a pharmacokinetics-confirmed human equivalent dose of paxlovid did not significantly reduce shed SARS-CoV-2 titers in ferrets and failed to block virus transmission to untreated direct-contact ferrets, whereas transmission was fully suppressed in a group of animals treated with a human-equivalent dose of molnupiravir. Prophylactic administration of molnupiravir to uninfected ferrets in direct contact with infected animals blocked productive SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whereas all contacts treated with prophylactic paxlovid became infected. These data confirm retrospective reports of similar therapeutic benefit of both drugs for older adults, and reveal that treatment with molnupiravir, but not paxlovid, may be suitable to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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BACKGROUNDOver 20% of cases and 0.4% of deaths from Covid-19 occur in children. Following demonstration of safety and efficacy of the adjuvanted, recombinant spike protein vaccine NVX-CoV2373 in adults, the PREVENT-19 trial enrolled adolescents. METHODSSafety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of NVX-CoV2373 were evaluated in adolescents aged 12 to <18 years in an expansion of PREVENT-19, a phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial in the United States. Participants were randomized 2:1 to two doses of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo 21 days apart, and followed for a median of 2 months after second vaccination. Primary end points were serologic non-inferiority of neutralizing antibody (NA) responses compared with young adults (18 to <26 years) in PREVENT-19, protective efficacy against laboratory-confirmed Covid-19, and assessment of reactogenicity/safety. RESULTSAmong 2,247 participants randomized between April-June 2021, 1,491 were allocated to NVX-CoV2373 and 756 to placebo. Post-vaccination, the ratio of NA geometric mean titers in adolescents compared to young adults was 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3 to 1.7). Twenty Covid-19 cases (all mild) occurred: 6 among NVX-CoV2373 and 14 among placebo recipients (vaccine efficacy [VE]: 79.5%, 95% CI, 46.8 to 92.1). All sequenced viral genomes (11/20) were identified as Delta variant (Delta variant VE: 82.0% [95% CI: 32.4 to 95.2]). Reactogenicity was largely mild-to-moderate, transient, and more frequent in NVX-CoV2373 recipients and after the second dose. Serious adverse events were rare and evenly distributed between treatments. CONCLUSIONSNVX-CoV2373 was safe, immunogenic, and efficacious in the prevention of Covid-19 and those cases caused by the Delta variant in adolescents. (Funded by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health; PREVENT-19 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04611802).
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BackgroundThere are reports of viral RNA and symptom rebound in people with COVID-19 treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Since the natural course of viral and symptom trajectories of COVID-19 has not been well described, we evaluated the incidence of viral and symptom rebound in untreated outpatients with mild-moderate COVID-19. MethodsThe study population included 568 participants enrolled in the ACTIV-2/A5401 platform trial who received placebo. Anterior nasal swabs were collected for SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing on days 0-14, 21 and 28. Participants recorded the severity of 13 targeted symptoms daily from day 0 to 28. Viral rebound was defined as [≥]0.5 log10 viral RNA copies/mL increase and symptom rebound was defined as a 4-point total symptom score increase from baseline. Baseline was defined as study day 4 (primary analysis) or 8 days from symptom onset (secondary analysis). FindingsIn both the primary and secondary analyses, 12% of participants had viral rebound. Viral rebounders were older than non-rebounders (median 54 vs 47 years, P=0.04). Symptom rebound occurred in 27% of participants after initial symptom improvement and in 10% of participants after initial symptom resolution. The combination of high-level viral rebound to [≥]5.0 log10 RNA copies/mL and symptom rebound after initial improvement was observed in 1-2% of participants. InterpretationViral RNA rebound or symptom relapse in the absence of antiviral treatment is common, but the combination of high-level viral and symptom rebound is rare. FundingThis study was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; ACTIV-2/A5401 ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04518410.
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Between November 2021 and February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants co-circulated in the United States, allowing for co-infections and possible recombination events. We sequenced 29,719 positive samples during this period and analyzed the presence and fraction of reads supporting mutations specific to either the Delta or Omicron variant. We identified 18 co-infections, one of which displayed evidence of a low Delta-Omicron recombinant viral population. We also identified two independent cases of infection by a Delta-Omicron recombinant virus, where 100% of the viral RNA came from one clonal recombinant. In the three cases, the 5-end of the viral genome was from the Delta genome, and the 3-end from Omicron including the majority of the spike protein gene, though the breakpoints were different. Delta-Omicron recombinant viruses were rare, and there is currently no evidence that Delta-Omicron recombinant viruses are more transmissible between hosts compared to the circulating Omicron lineages.
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The long-term evolution of viruses is ultimately due to viral mutants that arise within infected individuals and transmit to other individuals. Here we use deep sequencing to investigate the transmission of viral genetic variation among individuals during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak that infected the vast majority of crew members on a fishing boat. We deep-sequenced nasal swabs to characterize the within-host viral population of infected crew members, using experimental duplicates and strict computational filters to ensure accurate variant calling. We find that within-host viral diversity is low in infected crew members. The mutations that did fix in some crew members during the outbreak are not observed at detectable frequencies in any of the sampled crew members in which they are not fixed, suggesting viral evolution involves occasional fixation of low-frequency mutations during transmission rather than persistent maintenance of within-host viral diversity. Overall, our results show that strong transmission bottlenecks dominate viral evolution even during a superspreading event with a very high attack rate.
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Summary ParagraphSARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have triggered distinct infection waves in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, culminating in currently all-time high incidence rates of VOC omicron. Orally available direct-acting antivirals such as molnupiravir promise to improve disease management and limit SARS-CoV-2 spread. However, molnupiravir efficacy against VOC delta was questioned based on clinical trial results and its potency against omicron is unknown. This study evaluates molnupiravir against a panel of relevant VOC in three efficacy models: primary human airway epithelium organoids, the ferret model of upper respiratory disease, and a lethal Roborovski dwarf hamster efficacy model of severe COVID-19-like acute lung injury. All VOC were equally efficiently inhibited by molnupiravir in cultured cells and organoids. Treatment consistently reduced upper respiratory VOC shedding in ferrets and prevented viral transmission. Pathogenicity in the dwarf hamsters was VOC-dependent and highest for gamma, omicron, and delta with fulminant lung histopathology. Oral molnupiravir started 12 hours after infection resulted in complete survival of treated dwarf hamsters independent of challenge VOC. However, reduction in lung virus differed VOC-dependently, ranging from one (delta) to four (gamma) orders of magnitude compared to vehicle-treated animals. Dwarf hamsters infected with VOC omicron showed significant individual variation in response to treatment. Virus load reduction was significant in treated males, but not females. The dwarf hamster model recapitulates mixed efficacy of molnupiravir seen in human trials and alerts that therapeutic benefit of approved antivirals must be continuously reassessed in vivo as new VOC emerge.
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In late 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern (VoC) was reported with many mutations in the viral spike protein that were predicted to enhance transmissibility and allow viral escape of neutralizing antibodies. Within weeks of the first report of B.1.1.529, this VoC has rapidly spread throughout the world, replacing previously circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2 and leading to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases even in populations with high levels of vaccine- and infection-induced immunity. Initial studies have shown that B.1.1.529 is less sensitive to protective antibody conferred by previous infections and vaccines developed against earlier lineages of SARS-CoV-2. The ability of B.1.1.529 to spread even among vaccinated populations has led to a global public health demand for updated vaccines that can confer protection against B.1.1.529. We report here the rapid development of a replicating RNA vaccine expressing the B.1.1.529 spike and show that this B.1.1.529-targeted vaccine is immunogenic in mice and hamsters. Interestingly, we found that mice previously immunized with A.1-specific vaccines failed to elevate neutralizing antibody titers against B.1.1.529 following B.1.1.529-targeted boosting, suggesting pre-existing immunity may impact the efficacy of B.1.1.529-targeted boosters. Furthermore, we found that our B.1.1.529-targeted vaccine provides superior protection compared to the ancestral A.1-targeted vaccine in hamsters challenged with the B.1.1.529 VoC after a single dose of each vaccine. One Sentence SummaryRapidly developed RNA vaccine protects against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant
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The rapid emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants raises a number of public health questions including the capability of diagnostic tests to detect new strains, the efficacy of vaccines, and how to map the geographical distribution of variants to better understand patterns of transmission and possible load on healthcare resources. Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) is the primary method for detecting and tracing the emergence of new variants, but it is expensive, and it can take weeks before sequence data is available in public repositories. Here, we describe a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)-based genotyping approach that is significantly less expensive, accelerates reporting on SARS-CoV-2 variants, and can be implemented in any testing lab performing PCR. Specific Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and indels are identified that have high positive percent agreement (PPA) and negative percent agreement (NPA) compared to NGS for the major genotypes that circulated in 2021. Using a 48-marker panel, testing on 1,128 retrospective samples yielded a PPA and NPA in the 96.3 to 100% and 99.2 to 100% range, respectively, for the top 10 most prevalent lineages. The effect on PPA and NPA of reducing the number of panel markers was also explored. In addition, with the emergence of Omicron, we also developed an Omicron genotyping panel that distinguishes the Delta and Omicron variants using four (4) highly specific SNPs. Data from testing demonstrates the capability to use the panel to rapidly track the growing prevalence of the Omicron variant in the United States in December 2021.
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SARS-CoV-2 remdesivir resistance mutations have been generated in vitro but have not been reported in patients receiving treatment with the antiviral agent. We present a case of an immunocompromised patient with acquired B-cell deficiency who developed an indolent, protracted course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Remdesivir therapy alleviated symptoms and produced a transient virologic response, but her course was complicated by recrudescence of high-grade viral shedding. Whole genome sequencing identified a mutation, E802D, in the nsp12 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, which was not present in pre-treatment specimens. In vitro experiments demonstrated that the mutation conferred a [~]6-fold increase in remdesivir IC50 but resulted in a fitness cost in the absence of remdesivir. Sustained clinical and virologic response was achieved after treatment with casirivimab-imdevimab. Although the fitness cost observed in vitro may limit the risk posed by E802D, this case illustrates the importance of monitoring for remdesivir resistance and the potential benefit of combinatorial therapies in immunocompromised patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Amplicon-based sequencing methods have been central in characterizing the diversity, transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2, but need to be rigorously assessed for clinical utility. Here, we validated the Swift Biosciences SARS-CoV-2 Swift Normalase Amplicon Panels using remnant clinical specimens. High quality genomes meeting our established library and sequence quality criteria were recovered from positive specimens with a 95% limit of detection of [≥] 40.08 SARS-CoV-2 copies/PCR reaction. Breadth of genome recovery was evaluated across a range of Ct values (11.3 - 36.7, median 21.6). Out of 428 positive samples, 406 (94.9%) generated genomes with < 10% Ns, with a mean genome coverage of 13,545X {+/-} SD 8,382X. No genomes were recovered from PCR-negative specimens (n = 30), or from specimens positive for non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses (n = 20). Compared to whole-genome shotgun metagenomic sequencing (n = 14) or Sanger sequencing for the spike gene (n = 11), pairwise identity between consensus sequences was 100% in all cases, with highly concordant allele frequencies (R2 = 0.99) between Swift and shotgun libraries. When samples from different clades were mixed at varying ratios, expected variants were detected even in 1:99 mixtures. When deployed as a clinical test, 268 tests were performed in the first 23 weeks with a median turnaround time of 11 days, ordered primarily for outbreak investigations and infection control.
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IntroductionSince March of 2020, over 210 million SARS-CoV-2 cases have been reported and roughly five billion doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine have been delivered. The rise of the more infectious delta variant has recently indicated the value of reinstating previously relaxed non-pharmacological and test-driven preventative measures. These efforts have been met with resistance, due, in part, to a lack of site-specific quantitative evidence which can justify their value. As vaccination rates continue to increase, a gap in knowledge exists regarding appropriate thresholds for escalation and de-escalation of COVID-19 preventative measures. MethodsWe conducted a series of simulation experiments, trialing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus in a hypothesized working environment that is subject to COVID-19 infections from the surrounding community. We established cohorts of individuals who would, in simulation, work together for a set period of time. With these cohorts, we tested the rates of workplace and community acquired infections based on applied isolation strategies, community infection rates (CIR), scales of testing, non-pharmaceutical interventions, variant predominances and testing strategies, vaccination coverages, and vaccination efficacies of the members included. Permuting through each combination of these variables, we estimated expected case counts for 33,462 unique workplace scenarios. ResultsWhen the CIR is 5 new confirmed cases per 100,000 or fewer, and at 50% of the workforce is vaccinated with a 95% efficacious vaccine, then testing daily with an antigen-based or PCR based test in only unvaccinated workers will result in less than one infection through 4,800 person weeks. When the community infection rate per 100,000 persons is less than or equal to 60, and the vaccination coverage of the workforce is 100% with 95% vaccine efficacy then no masking or routine testing + isolation strategies are needed to prevent workplace acquired infections regardless of variant predominance. Identifying and isolating workers with antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing methods results in the same or fewer workplace acquired infections than testing with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods. ConclusionsSpecific scenarios exist in which preventative measures taken to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread, including masking, and testing plus isolation strategies can safely be relaxed. Further, efficacious testing with quarantine strategies exist for implementation in only unvaccinated cohorts in a workplace. Due to shorter turnaround time, antigen-based testing with lower sensitivity is more effective than PCR testing with higher sensitivities in comparable testing strategies. The general reference interactive heatmap we provide can be used for site specific, immediate, parameter-based case count predictions to inform appropriate institutional policy making.
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Resistance mutations to monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapy has been reported, but in the non-immunosuppressed population, it is unclear if in vivo emergence of SARS-CoV-2 resistance mutations alters either viral replication dynamics or therapeutic efficacy. In ACTIV-2/A5401, non-hospitalized participants with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were randomized to bamlanivimab (700mg or 7000mg) or placebo. Treatment-emergent resistance mutations were significantly more likely detected after bamlanivimab 700mg treatment than placebo (7% of 111 vs 0% of 112 participants, P=0.003). There were no treatment-emergent resistance mutations among the 48 participants who received bamlanivimab 7000mg. Participants with emerging mAb resistant virus had significantly higher pre-treatment nasopharyngeal and anterior nasal viral load. Intensive respiratory tract viral sampling revealed the dynamic nature of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, with evidence of rapid and sustained viral rebound after emergence of resistance mutations, and worsened symptom severity. Participants with emerging bamlanivimab resistance often accumulated additional polymorphisms found in current variants of concern/interest and associated with immune escape. These results highlight the potential for rapid emergence of resistance during mAb monotherapy treatment, resulting in prolonged high level respiratory tract viral loads and clinical worsening. Careful virologic assessment should be prioritized during the development and clinical implementation of antiviral treatments for COVID-19.
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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged at the end of 2019 and has been responsible for the still ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Prophylactic vaccines have been authorized by the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the prevention of COVID-19. Identification of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) is important to assess vaccine protection efficacy, including their ability to protect against emerging SARS- CoV-2 variants of concern (VoC). Here we report the generation and use of a recombinant (r)SARS-CoV-2 USA/WA1/2020 (WA-1) strain expressing Venus and a rSARS-CoV-2 expressing mCherry and containing mutations K417N, E484K, and N501Y found in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) glycoprotein of the South African (SA) B.1.351 (beta, {beta}) VoC, in bifluorescent-based assays to rapidly and accurately identify human monoclonal antibodies (hMAbs) able to neutralize both viral infections in vitro and in vivo. Importantly, our bifluorescent-based system accurately recapitulated findings observed using individual viruses. Moreover, fluorescent- expressing rSARS-CoV-2 and the parental wild-type (WT) rSARS-CoV-2 WA-1 had similar viral fitness in vitro, as well as similar virulence and pathogenicity in vivo in the K18 human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) transgenic mouse model of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We demonstrate that these new fluorescent-expressing rSARS- CoV-2 can be used in vitro and in vivo to easily identify hMAbs that simultaneously neutralize different SARS-CoV-2 strains, including VoC, for the rapid assessment of vaccine efficacy or the identification of prophylactic and/or therapeutic broadly NAbs for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoCs) are impacting responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present a comparison of the SARS-CoV-2 USA-WA1/2020 (WA-1) strain with B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 VoCs and identify significant differences in viral propagation in vitro and pathogenicity in vivo using K18-hACE2 transgenic mice. Passive immunization with plasma from an early pandemic SARS-CoV-2 patient resulted in significant differences in the outcome of VoC-infected mice. WA-1-infected mice were protected by plasma, B.1.1.7-infected mice were partially protected, and B.1.351-infected mice were not protected. Serological correlates of disease were different between VoC-infected mice, with B.1.351 triggering significantly altered cytokine profiles than other strains. In this study, we defined infectivity and immune responses triggered by VoCs and observed that early 2020 SARS-CoV-2 human immune plasma was insufficient to protect against challenge with B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 in the mouse model.
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More than one year into a global pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 is now defined by a variety of rapidly evolving variant lineages. Several FDA authorized molecular diagnostic tests have been impacted by viral variation, while no reports of viral variation affecting antigen test performance have occurred to date. While determining the analytical sensitivity of the Quidel Sofia SARS Antigen FIA test (Sofia 2), we uncovered a high viral load specimen that repeatedly tested negative by this antigen test. Whole genome sequencing of the specimen uncovered two mutations, T205I and D399N, present in the nucleocapsid protein of the isolate. All six SARS-CoV-2 positive clinical specimens available in our laboratory with a D399N nucleocapsid mutation and CT < 31 were not detected by the Sofia 2 but detected by the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag Card, while clinical specimens with the T205I mutation were detected by both assays. Testing of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid with these variants demonstrated an approximate 1000-fold loss in sensitivity for the Quidel Sofia SARS Antigen FIA test associated with the D399N mutation, while the BinaxNOW and Quidel Quickvue SARS Antigen tests were unaffected by the mutation. The D399N nucleocapsid mutation has been relatively uncommon to date, appearing in only 0.02% of genomes worldwide at time of writing. Our results demonstrate how routine pathogen genomics can be integrated into the clinical microbiology laboratory to investigate diagnostic edge cases, as well as the importance of profiling antigenic diversity outside of the spike protein for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics.
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Across 20 vaccine breakthrough cases detected at our institution, all 20 (100%) infections were due to variants of concern (VOC) and had a median Ct of 20.2 (IQR=17.1-23.3). When compared to 5174 contemporaneous samples sequenced in our laboratory, VOC were significantly enriched among breakthrough infections (p < .05).
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With the availability of widespread SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, high-throughput quantitative anti-spike serological testing will likely become increasingly important. Here, we investigated the performance characteristics of the recently FDA authorized semi-quantitative anti-spike AdviseDx SARS-CoV-2 IgG II assay compared to the FDA authorized anti-nucleocapsid Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG, Roche elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2-S, EuroImmun Anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA, and GenScript surrogate virus neutralization assays and examined the humoral response associated with vaccination, natural protection, and breakthrough infection. The AdviseDx assay had a clinical sensitivity at 14 days post-symptom onset or 10 days post PCR detection of 95.6% (65/68, 95% CI: 87.8-98.8%) with two discrepant individuals seroconverting shortly thereafter. The AdviseDx assay demonstrated 100% positive percent agreement with the four other assays examined using the same symptom onset or PCR detection cutoffs. Using a recently available WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody, we provide assay unit conversion factors to international units for each of the assays examined. We performed a longitudinal survey of healthy vaccinated individuals, finding median AdviseDx immunoglobulin levels peaked seven weeks post-first vaccine dose at approximately 4,000 IU/mL. Intriguingly, among the five assays examined, there was no significant difference in antigen binding level or neutralizing activity between two seropositive patients protected against SARS-CoV-2 infection in a previously described fishing vessel outbreak and five healthcare workers who experienced vaccine breakthrough of SARS-CoV-2 infection - all with variants of concern. These findings suggest that protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot currently be predicted exclusively using in vitro antibody assays against wildtype SARS-CoV-2 spike. Further work is required to establish protective correlates of protection for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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BackgroundRapid dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data to public repositories has enabled widespread study of viral genomes, but studies of longitudinal specimens from infected persons are relatively limited. Analysis of longitudinal specimens enables understanding of how host immune pressures drive viral evolution in vivo. Methods and findingsHere we performed sequencing of 49 longitudinal SARS-CoV-2-positive samples from 20 patients in Washington State collected between March and September of 2020. Viral loads declined over time with an average increase in RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) of 0.87 per day. We found that there was negligible change in SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences over time, but identified a number of nonsynonymous variants at low frequencies across the genome. We observed enrichment for a relatively small number of these variants, all of which are now seen in consensus genomes across the globe at low prevalence. In one patient, we saw rapid emergence of various low-level deletion variants at the N-terminal domain of the spike glycoprotein, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with reduced neutralization potency from sera. In a subset of samples that were sequenced using metagenomic methods, differential gene expression analysis showed a downregulation of cytoskeletal genes that was consistent with a loss of ciliated epithelium during infection and recovery. We also identified co-occurrence of bacterial species in samples from multiple hospitalized individuals. ConclusionsThese results demonstrate that the intrahost genetic composition of SARS-CoV-2 is dynamic during the course of COVID-19, and highlight the need for continued surveillance and deep sequencing of minor variants.
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Molecular testing for infectious diseases is generally both very sensitive and specific. Well-designed PCR primers rarely cross-react with other analytes, and specificities seen during test validation are often 100%. However, analytical specificities measured during validation may not reflect real-world performance across the entire testing process. Here, we use the unique environment of SARS-CoV-2 screening among otherwise well individuals to examine the false positivity rate of high throughput so-called "sample-to-answer" nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) on three commercial assays: the Hologic Panther Fusion(R), Hologic Aptima(R) transcription mediated amplification (TMA), and Roche cobas(R) 6800. We used repetitive sampling of the same person as the gold standard to determine test specificity rather than retesting of the same sample. We examined 451 people repetitively sampled over 7 months via nasal swab, comprising 7,242 results. During the study period there were twelve positive tests (0.17%) from 9 people. Eight positive tests (0.11%, five individuals) were considered bona fide true positives based on repeat positives or outside testing and epidemiological data. One positive test had no follow-up testing or metadata and could not be adjudicated. Three positive tests (three individuals) did not repeat as positive on a subsequent collection, nor did the original positive specimen test positive on an orthogonal platform. We consider these three tests false positives and estimate the overall false positive rate of high-throughput automated, sample-to-answer NAAT testing to be approximately 0.041% (3/7242). These data help laboratorians, epidemiologists, and regulators understand specificity and positive predictive value associated with high-throughput NAAT testing.
