RESUMO
There has been growing attention on the effect of COVID-19 on white-matter microstructure, especially among those that self-isolated after being infected. There is also immense scientific interest and potential clinical utility to evaluate the sensitivity of single-shell diffusion MRI methods for detecting such effects. In this work, the sensitivities of three single-shell-compatible diffusion MRI modeling methods are compared for detecting the effect of COVID-19, including diffusion-tensor imaging, diffusion-tensor decomposition of orthogonal moments and correlated diffusion imaging. Imaging was performed on self-isolated patients at baseline and 3-month follow-up, along with age- and sex-matched controls. We demonstrate through simulations and experimental data that correlated diffusion imaging is associated with far greater sensitivity, being the only one of the three single-shell methods to demonstrate COVID-19-related brain effects. Results suggest less restricted diffusion in the frontal lobe in COVID-19 patients, but also more restricted diffusion in the cerebellar white matter, in agreement with several existing studies highlighting the vulnerability of the cerebellum to COVID-19 infection. These results, taken together with the simulation results, suggest that a significant proportion of COVID-19 related white-matter microstructural pathology manifests as a change in water diffusivity. Interestingly, different b-values also confer different sensitivities to the effects. No significant difference was observed in patients at the 3-month follow-up, likely due to the limited size of the follow-up cohort. To summarize, correlated diffusion imaging is shown to be a sensitive single-shell diffusion analysis approach that allows us to uncover opposing patterns of diffusion changes in the frontal and cerebellar regions of COVID-19 patients, suggesting the two regions react differently to viral infection.
RESUMO
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naive baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance StatementThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.