Heterotrophic consumption may mask increasing primary production fuelled by anthropogenic nutrient loading in the northern Arabian/Persian Gulf.

Monthly measurements of nitrate, nitrite, ammonium and phosphate at three stations off Kuwait during 2002-2015 revealed considerable inter-annual variability, broadly corresponding to fluctuations in the Shatt-al-Arab River discharge, but a lack of secular increasing trend. Nutrient enrichment experiments during two seasons revealed nitrate uptake, chlorophyll build-up and growth of micro-phytoplankton, even in the presence of ammonium, provided the availability of phosphate. Primary production was mostly nitrogen limited, but anthropogenic nitrogen supply may eventually make it phosphorus limited, especially in summer and in the open Gulf. Anthropogenic nutrient inputs appear to have enhanced biological productivity of the northern Gulf, but heterotrophic consumption, indicated by high respiration rates, probably prevented accumulation of phytoplankton biomass, accounting for the observed lack of chlorophyll increase over the past three decades. Consequently high total organic carbon and emerging hypoxia in the Gulf may lead to expansion/intensification of the oxygen minimum zone of the Arabian Sea.