The Use and Effectiveness of Selected Alternative Markers for Insulin Sensitivity and Secretion Compared with Gold Standard Markers in Dietary Intervention Studies in Individuals without Diabetes: Results of a Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The gold-standard techniques for measuring insulin sensitivity and secretion are well established. However, they may be perceived as invasive and expensive for use in dietary intervention studies. Thus, surrogate markers have been proposed as alternative markers for insulin sensitivity and secretion. This systematic review aimed to identify markers of insulin sensitivity and secretion in response to dietary intervention and assess their suitability as surrogates for the gold-standard methodology. METHODS: Three databases, PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane were searched, intervention studies and randomised controlled trials reporting data on dietary intake, a gold standard of analysis of insulin sensitivity (either euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp or intravenous glucose tolerance test and secretion (acute insulin response to glucose), as well as surrogate markers for insulin sensitivity (either fasting insulin, area under the curve oral glucose tolerance tests and HOMA-IR) and insulin secretion (disposition index), were selected. RESULTS: We identified thirty-five studies that were eligible for inclusion. We found insufficient evidence to predict insulin sensitivity and secretion with surrogate markers when compared to gold standards in nutritional intervention studies. CONCLUSIONS: Future research is needed to investigate if surrogate measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion can be repeatable and reproducible in the same way as gold standards.

Effects of alpha-glucosidase-inhibiting drugs on acute postprandial glucose and insulin responses: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Despite considerable literature supporting the potential health benefits of reducing postprandial glucose (PPG), and insulin (PPI) exposures, the size of a clinically relevant reduction is currently unknown. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify effects of alpha-glucosidase-inhibiting (AGI) drugs on acute PPG and PPI responses. METHODS: We searched EMBASE and MEDLINE until March 13, 2018 for controlled studies using AGI drugs together with a standardized carbohydrate load or mixed meal. The mean incremental PPG and PPI levels were calculated as outcomes. Meta-analyses, stratified by diabetes state, were performed by using random effects models. RESULTS: The 66 included publications comprised 127 drug-control comparisons for PPG, and 106 for PPI, mostly testing acarbose or miglitol. The absolute effects on PPG were larger among individuals with diabetes (-1.5 mmol/l mean PPG [95% CI -1.9, -1.1] by acarbose, and -1.6 [-1.9, -1.4] by miglitol) as compared to individuals without diabetes (-0.4 [95% CI -0.5, -0.3] by acarbose, and -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4] by miglitol). Relative reductions in PPG by both drugs were similar for diabetic and non-diabetic individuals (43-54%). Acarbose and miglitol also significantly reduced mean PPI, with absolute and relative reductions being largest among individuals without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The present meta-analyses provide quantitative estimates of reductions of PPG and PPI responses by AGI drugs in diabetes and non-diabetic individuals. These data can serve as benchmarks for clinically relevant reductions in PPG and PPI via drug or diet and lifestyle interventions.

Effects of dietary macronutrients on liver fat content in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Dietary macronutrient composition may affect hepatic liver content and its associated diseases, but the results from human intervention trials have been equivocal or underpowered. We aimed to assess the effects of dietary macronutrient composition on liver fat content by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials in adults. Four databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and COCHRANE Library) were systematically searched for trials with isocaloric diets evaluating the effect of dietary macronutrient composition (energy percentages of fat, carbohydrates, and protein, and their specific types) on liver fat content as assessed by magnetic resonance techniques, computed tomography or liver biopsy. Data on change in liver fat content were pooled by random or fixed-effects meta-analyses and expressed as standardized mean difference (SMD). We included 26 randomized controlled trials providing data for 32 comparisons on dietary macronutrient composition. Replacing dietary fat with carbohydrates did not result in changes in liver fat (12 comparisons, SMD 0.01 (95% CI -0.36; 0.37)). Unsaturated fat as compared with saturated fat reduced liver fat content (4 comparisons, SMD -0.80 (95% CI -1.09; -0.51)). Replacing carbohydrates with protein reduced liver fat content (5 comparisons, SMD -0.33 (95% CI -0.54; -0.12)). Our meta-analyses showed that replacing carbohydrates with total fat on liver fat content was not effective, while replacing carbohydrates with proteins and saturated fat with unsaturated fat was. More well-performed and well-described studies on the effect of types of carbohydrates and proteins on liver fat content are needed, especially studies comparing proteins with fats.

Reducing postprandial glucose in dietary intervention studies and the magnitude of the effect on diabetes-related risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Reducing postprandial hyperglycemia has beneficial effects on diabetes-related risk factors, but the magnitude of the reduction needed to achieve such an effect is unknown. The purpose of the study was to quantify the relationship of acute glucose and insulin postprandial responses with longer-term effects on diabetes-related risk factors by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis of dietary intervention studies. METHODS: We systematically searched EMBASE and MEDLINE. Dietary intervention studies among any human population aiming to reduce postprandial glycemia, with actual measures of postprandial glucose (PPG) and/or insulin (PPI) as acute exposures (incremental area under the curve, iAUC) as well as markers of glucose metabolism (fasting glucose, HbA1c) and insulin sensitivity (fasting insulin, HOMA-IR) after at least 4 weeks of diet intervention as outcomes were included. Meta-analyses were performed for the effects on acute exposures and on diabetes-related risk factors. The relationship between changes in acute exposures and changes in risk factor outcomes was estimated by meta-regression analyses. RESULTS: Out of the 13,004 screened papers, 13 papers with 14 comparisons were included in the quantitative analysis. The dietary interventions acutely reduced mean PPG [mean difference (MD), - 0.27 mmol/l; 95% CI - 0.41 to - 0.14], but not mean PPI (MD - 7.47 pmol/l; 95% CI - 16.79 to 1.86). There were no significant overall effects on fasting glucose and insulin. HbA1c was reduced by - 0.20% (95% CI - 0.35 to - 0.05). Changes in acute PPG were significantly associated with changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) [per 10% change in PPG: ß = 0.085 (95% CI 0.003, 0.167), k = 14], but not with fasting insulin [ß = 1.20 (95% CI - 0.32, 2.71), k = 12]. Changes in acute PPI were not associated with changes in FPG [per 10% change in PPI: ß = - 0.017 (95% CI - 0.056, 0.022), k = 11]. CONCLUSIONS: Only a limited number of postprandial glucose-lowering dietary intervention studies measured acute postprandial exposures to PPG/PPI during the interventions. In this small heterogeneous set of studies, an association was found between the magnitude of the acute postprandial responses and the change in fasting glucose, but no other outcomes. More studies are needed to quantify the relationship between acute postprandial changes and long-term effects on risk factors.

Phenotypic and lifestyle determinants of HbA1c in the general population-The Hoorn Study.

AIM: To investigate the relative contribution of phenotypic and lifestyle factors to HbA1c, independent of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2h post-load glucose (2hPG), in the general population. METHODS: The study populations included 2309 participants without known diabetes from the first wave of the Hoorn Study (1989) and 2619 from the second wave (2006). Multivariate linear regression models were used to analyze the relationship between potential determinants and HbA1c in addition to FPG and 2hPG. The multivariate model was derived in the first wave of the Hoorn Study, and replicated in the second wave. RESULTS: In both cohorts, independent of FPG and 2hPG, higher age, female sex, larger waist circumference, and smoking were associated with a higher HbA1c level. Larger hip circumference, higher BMI, higher alcohol consumption and vitamin C intake were associated with a lower HbA1c level. FPG and 2hPG together explained 41.0% (first wave) and 53.0% (second wave) of the total variance in HbA1c. The combination of phenotypic and lifestyle determinants additionally explained 5.7% (first wave) and 3.9% (second wave). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that, independent of glucose, phenotypic and lifestyle factors are associated with HbA1c, but the contribution is relatively small. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the low correlation between glucose levels and HbA1c in the general population.

Hepatic saturated fatty acid fraction is associated with de novo lipogenesis and hepatic insulin resistance.

Hepatic steatosis is associated with poor cardiometabolic health, with de novo lipogenesis (DNL) contributing to hepatic steatosis and subsequent insulin resistance. Hepatic saturated fatty acids (SFA) may be a marker of DNL and are suggested to be most detrimental in contributing to insulin resistance. Here, we show in a cross-sectional study design (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03211299) that we are able to distinguish the fractions of hepatic SFA, mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids in healthy and metabolically compromised volunteers using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS). DNL is positively associated with SFA fraction and is elevated in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver and type 2 diabetes. Intriguingly, SFA fraction shows a strong, negative correlation with hepatic insulin sensitivity. Our results show that the hepatic lipid composition, as determined by our 1H-MRS methodology, is a measure of DNL and suggest that specifically the SFA fraction may hamper hepatic insulin sensitivity.

Adherence to dietary guidelines in relation to visceral fat and liver fat in middle-aged men and women: the NEO study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear to what extent adherence to dietary guidelines may specifically affect visceral fat and liver fat. We aimed to study the association between the Dutch Healthy Diet Index (DHD-index) and total body fat, visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and hepatic triglyceride content (HTGC) in middle-aged men and women. DESIGN: In this cross-sectional study, VAT was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in 2580 participants, and HTGC by proton-MR spectroscopy in 2083 participants. Habitual dietary intake and physical activity were estimated by questionnaire. Adherence to the current Dutch dietary guidelines was estimated by the 2015 DHD-index score based on the thirteen components (vegetables, fruit, wholegrain products, legumes, nuts, dairy, fish, tea, liquid fats, red meat, processed meat, sweetened beverages, and alcohol). The DHD-index ranges between 0 and 130 with a higher score indicating a healthier diet. We used linear regression to examine associations of the DHD-index with VAT and HTGC, adjusted for age, smoking, education, ethnicity, basal metabolic rate, energy restricted diet, menopausal state, physical activity, total energy intake, and total body fat. We additionally excluded the components one by one to examine individual contributions to the associations. RESULTS: Included participants (43% men) had a mean (SD) age of 56 (6) years and DHD-index score of 71 (15). A 10-point higher DHD-index score was associated with 2.3 cm2 less visceral fat (95% CI; -3.5; -1.0 cm2) and less liver fat (0.94 times, 95% CI; 0.90; 0.98). Of all components, exclusion of dairy attenuated the associations with TBF and VAT. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to the dietary guidelines as estimated by the DHD-index was associated with less total body fat, and with less visceral and liver fat after adjustment for total body fat. These findings might contribute to better understanding of the mechanisms underlying associations between dietary habits and cardiometabolic diseases.

Impact of isocaloric exchanges of carbohydrate for fat on postprandial glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and free fatty acid responses-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Varying the macronutrient composition of meals alters acute postprandial responses, but the effect sizes for specific macronutrient exchanges have not been quantified by systematic reviews. Therefore the aim is to quantify the effect size of exchanging fat for carbohydrates in mixed meals on postprandial glucose (PPG), insulin (PPI), triglycerides (PPTG), and free fatty acids (PPFFA) responses by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. A systematic literature search was undertaken on randomized controlled trials comparing isocaloric high fat with high carbohydrate meals, with comparable protein contents and at least one postprandial glycemic- and one lipid outcome. The outcome data were extracted and expressed as mean postprandial levels over 2 h. Ten studies involving 14 comparisons met the eligibility criteria. Data were available for meta-analysis from 347 participants, consuming mixed meals containing 250-1003 kcal, and total fat contents of 33.3-75.6 percentage of energy (en%) (intervention) versus 0-31.7 en% (control). Each 10en% increase in fat, replacing carbohydrates produced a mean reduction in PPG of 0.32 mmol/l (95% CI -0.64 to -0.00, p = 0.047), a reduction in PPI of 18.2 pmol/l (95% CI -24.86 to -11.54), an increase in PPTG of 0.06 mmol/l (95% CI 0.02 to 0.09, p = 0.004), with no statistically significant effect on PPFFA. Modest exchange of carbohydrates for fats in mixed meals significantly reduces PPG and PPI and increases PPTG responses. The quantitative relationships derived here may be applied to predict responses, and to design and optimize meal macronutrient compositions in dietary intervention studies.

The Rate of Glucose Appearance Is Related to Postprandial Glucose and Insulin Responses in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Stable Isotope Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is often assumed that lower postprandial glucose (PPG) and insulin (PPI) responses are induced by slower glucose influx from the gut (e.g., by delayed carbohydrate digestion). However, changes in the rate of appearance of glucose in the peripheral circulation [rate of appearance of exogenous glucose (RaE)] may be accompanied by changes in endogenous glucose production (EGP) and the rate of disappearance of total glucose into tissues (RdT). The quantitative relationships between reductions in RaE and PPG/PPI levels are unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to perform a meta-analysis to quantify the effect of changes in RaE on changes in PPG and PPI levels (primary) and EGP and RdT (secondary). METHODS: We systematically searched the Scopus, Medline, and Cochrane library databases through 10 January 2019 for randomized, controlled, carbohydrate-rich interventions that aimed to reduce RaE in humans, measured using dual or triple stable isotope methods. The 2-h net incremental AUCs for all variables were extracted or calculated. Relationships between RaE and outcomes were quantified by weighted regression analyses. RESULTS: There were 12 articles, including 17 comparisons, that satisfied the inclusion criteria. The subjects were mainly men (60%), with age and BMI ranges of 18-40 y and 20.0-27.5 kg/m2, respectively. A 10% reduction in RaE was associated with reductions in PPG levels, PPI levels, and the RdT of 7% (95% CI: 2%, 12%; P = 0.010), 8% (95% CI: 2%, 13%; P = 0.012), and 11% (95% CI: 4%, 17%; P = 0.005), respectively, but was not significantly associated with a change in EGP (13%; 95% CI: -7%, 33%; P = 0.176). All fluxes together explained 70% and 26% of the variances in PPG and PPI levels, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In adults, reducing glucose RaE by diet is associated with significant reductions in PPG levels, PPI levels, and the rate of glucose disposal. This trial was registered in the PROSPERO database with identifier CRD42018084824.

Associations Between Linoleic Acid Intake and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Among U.S. Men and Women.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between intakes of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and type 2 diabetes risk in three prospective cohort studies of U.S. men and women. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We followed 83,648 women from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) (1980-2012), 88,610 women from NHSII (1991-2013), and 41,771 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS) (1986-2012). Dietary data were collected every 2-4 years by using validated food-frequency questionnaires. Self-reported incident diabetes, identified biennially, was confirmed by using a validated supplementary questionnaire. RESULTS: During 4.93 million person-years of follow-up, 18,442 type 2 diabetes cases were documented. Dietary n-6 PUFAs accounted for 4.4-6.8% of total energy, on average, and consisted primarily of linoleic acid (LA) (≥98%). In multivariate-adjusted models, hazard ratios (95% CIs) of type 2 diabetes risk comparing extreme n-6 PUFA quintiles (highest vs. lowest) were 0.91 (0.85, 0.96) (P trend = 0.002) for total n-6 PUFAs and 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) (P trend = 0.01) for LA. In an isocaloric substitution model, diabetes risk was 14% (95% CI 5%, 21%) (P = 0.002) lower when LA isocalorically replaced saturated fats (5% of energy), 17% (95% CI 9%, 24%) (P < 0.001) lower for trans fats (2% of energy), or 9% (95% CI 17%, 0.1%) (P = 0.047) lower for carbohydrates (5% of energy). Replacing n-3 PUFAs or monounsaturated fats with LA was not significantly associated with type 2 diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides additional evidence that LA intake is inversely associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, especially when replacing saturated fatty acids, trans fats, or carbohydrates.

Plant-derived polyunsaturated fatty acids and markers of glucose metabolism and insulin resistance: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled feeding trials.

The objective of this meta-analysis was to investigate the effects of plant-derived polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on glucose metabolism and insulin resistance. Scopus and PubMed databases were searched until January 2018. Eligible studies were randomized controlled feeding trials that investigated the effects of a diet high in plant-derived PUFA as compared with saturated fatty acids (SFA) or carbohydrates and measured markers of glucose metabolism and insulin resistance as outcomes. Data from 13 relevant studies (19 comparisons of plant-derived PUFA with control) were retrieved. Plant-derived PUFA did not significantly affect fasting glucose (-0.01 mmol/L (95 % CI - 0.06 to 0.03 mmol/L)), but lowered fasting insulin by 2.6 pmol/L (-4.9 to -0.2 pmol/L) and homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) by 0.12 units (-0.23 to - 0.01 units). In dose-response analyses, a 5% increase in energy (En%) from PUFA significantly reduced insulin by 5.8 pmol/L (95% CI -10.2 to -1.3 pmol/L), but not glucose (change -0.07, 95% CI -0.17 to 0.04 mmol/L) and HOMA-IR (change - 0.24, 95% CI -0.56 to 0.07 units). In subgroup analyses, studies with higher PUFA dose (upper tertiles) reduced insulin (-6.7, -10.5 to -2.9 pmol/L) and HOMA-IR (-0.28, -0.45 to -0.12 units), but not glucose (-0.09, 95% CI -0.18 to 0.01 mmol/L), as compared with an isocaloric control. Subgroup analyses showed no differences in effects between SFA and carbohydrates as replacement nutrients (p interaction ≥0.05). Evidence from randomized controlled trials indicated that plant-derived PUFA as an isocaloric replacement for SFA or carbohydrates probably reduces fasting insulin and HOMA-IR in populations without diabetes.

A prospective study on glucagon responses to oral glucose and mixed meal and 7-year change in fasting glucose.

INTRODUCTION: The role of insufficient glucagon suppression after an oral load in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the association between glucagon responses at baseline and fasting glucose levels 7 years later. METHODS: Data of the Hoorn Meal Study were used, an observational cohort study among 121 persons without diabetes with a mean age of 61.1 ± 6.7 years and 50% being female. The glucagon response to an oral glucose tolerance test and mixed meal test was expressed as early and late incremental area under the curve. The association with change in fasting glucose levels at follow-up was assessed by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The early glucagon response following the mixed meal test was associated with an increase in fasting glucose levels of 0.18 mmol/L (95%-CI: 0.04-0.31, P = 0.01), per unit increase in the incremental area under the curve of glucagon, adjusted for confounders. No significant associations were observed for the late response after the mixed meal test or oral glucose tolerance test. CONCLUSIONS: Within a population without diabetes, relative lack of glucagon suppression early after a meal was associated with increased glucose levels over time, suggesting a role of insufficient glucagon suppression in the deterioration of glycaemic control.

Sweet Snacks Are Positively and Fruits and Vegetables Are Negatively Associated with Visceral or Liver Fat Content in Middle-Aged Men and Women.

BACKGROUND: Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and hepatic triglyceride content (HTGC) are major risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the association of dietary intake of the main food groups with VAT and HTGC in middle-aged men and women. METHODS: We used data from the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study, a population-based study including 6671 participants aged 45-65 y at baseline. In this cross-sectional analysis, VAT and HTGC were assessed by magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy, respectively, as the primary outcomes. Habitual intake of main food groups (dairy, meat, fish, fruits and vegetables, sweet snacks, and fats and oils) was estimated through the use of a food-frequency questionnaire. We examined associations of intake of different food groups with VAT and HTGC by linear regression analysis stratified by sex and adjusted for age, smoking, education, ethnicity, physical activity, basal metabolic rate, energy-restricted diet, menopausal state, and total energy intake. RESULTS: In women, a 100-g/d higher intake of dairy was associated with 2.0 cm2 less VAT (95% CI: -3.4, -0.7 cm2) and a 0.95-fold lower HTGC (95% CI: 0.90-, 0.99-fold). Moreover, a 100-g/d higher intake of fruit and vegetables was associated with 1.6 cm2 less VAT (95% CI: -2.9, -0.2 cm2) in women. Fruit and vegetables were negatively associated (0.95; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.00) with HTGC, and sweet snacks were positively associated (1.29; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.63). Patterns were weaker but similar in men. Fish intake was not associated with VAT or HTGC and plant-based fat and oil intake were only associated with VAT after adjustment for total body fat. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some variation in the strength of the associations between men and women, dietary intake of sweet snacks was positively associated with HTGC, and fruit and vegetable intake were negatively associated with visceral and liver fat content. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results. The Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov with identifier NCT03410316.

Relative contributions of preprandial and postprandial glucose exposures, glycemic variability, and non-glycemic factors to HbA 1c in individuals with and without diabetes.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: There is substantial interest in dietary approaches to reducing postprandial glucose (PPG) responses, but the quantitative contribution of PPG to longer-term glycemic control (reflected in glycated hemoglobin, HbA1c) in the general population is not known. This study quantified the associations of preprandial glucose exposure, PPG exposure, and glycemic variability with HbA1c and estimated the explained variance in HbA1c in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). SUBJECTS/METHODS: Participants in the A1c-Derived Average Glucose (ADAG) study without T2D (n = 77) or with non-insulin-treated T2D and HbA1c<6.5% (T2DHbA1c < 6.5%, n = 63) or HbA1c ≥ 6.5% (T2DHbA1c ≥ 6.5%, n = 34) were included in this analysis. Indices of preprandial glucose, PPG, and glycemic variability were calculated from continuous glucose monitoring during four periods over 12 weeks prior to HbA1c measurement. In linear regression models, we estimated the associations of the glycemic exposures with HbA1c and calculated the proportion of variance in HbA1c explained by glycemic and non-glycemic factors (age, sex, body mass index, and ethnicity). RESULTS: The factors in the analysis explained 35% of the variance in HbA1c in non-diabetic individuals, 49% in T2DHbA1c < 6.5%, and 78% in T2DHbA1c ≥ 6.5%. In non-diabetic individuals PPG exposure was associated with HbA1c in confounder-adjusted analyses (P < 0.05). In the T2DHbA1c < 6.5% group, all glycemic measures were associated with HbA1c (P < 0.05); preprandial glucose and PPG accounted for 14 and 18%, respectively, of the explained variation. In T2DHbA1c ≥ 6.5%, these glycemic exposures accounted for more than 50% of the variation in HbA1c and with equal relative contributions. CONCLUSIONS: Among the glycemic exposures, PPG exposure was most strongly predictive of HbA1c in non-diabetic individuals, suggesting that interventions targeting lowering of the PPG response may be beneficial for long-term glycemic maintenance. In T2D, preprandial glucose and PPG exposure contributed equally to HbA1c.

Monounsaturated fats from plant and animal sources in relation to risk of coronary heart disease among US men and women.

Background: Monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) improve blood lipid profiles in intervention studies, but prospective evidence with regard to MUFA intake and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk is limited and controversial. Objective: We investigated the associations of cis MUFA intake from plant (MUFA-P) and animal (MUFA-A) sources with CHD risk separately among 63,442 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1990-2012) and 29,942 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1990-2012). Design: Intakes of MUFA-Ps and MUFA-As were calculated by using validated food-frequency questionnaires collected every 4 y. Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD cases (n = 4419) were confirmed by medical record review. Results: During follow-up, MUFA-Ps and MUFA-As contributed 5.8-7.9% and 4.2-5.4% of energy on average, respectively. When MUFA-Ps were modeled to isocalorically replace other macronutrients, HRs (95% CIs) of CHD were 0.83 (0.68, 1.00) for saturated fatty acids (SFAs; 5% of energy), 0.86 (0.76, 0.97) for refined carbohydrates (5% of energy), and 0.80 (0.70, 0.91) for trans fats (2% of energy) (P = 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001, respectively). For MUFA-As, corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for the same isocaloric substitutions were 1.04 (0.79, 1.38) for SFAs, 1.11 (0.91, 1.35) for refined carbohydrates, and 0.88 (0.77, 1.01) for trans fats (P = 0.76, 0.31, and 0.08, respectively). Given the common food sources of SFAs and MUFA-As (Spearman correlation coefficients of 0.81-0.83 between these groups of fatty acids), we further estimated CHD risk when the sum of MUFA-As and SFAs (5% of energy) was replaced by MUFA-Ps, and found that the HR was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.90; P < 0.001) for this replacement. Conclusions: The largely different associations of MUFA-Ps and MUFA-As with CHD risk suggest that plant-based foods are the preferable sources of MUFAs for CHD prevention. These findings are observational and warrant confirmation in intervention settings. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00005152 and NCT00005182.

Circulating Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids as Biomarkers for Dietary Intake across Subgroups: The CODAM and Hoorn Studies.

AIMS: To evaluate whether participant characteristics and way of expressing circulating fatty acids (FA) influence the strengths of associations between self-reported intake and circulating levels of linoleic acid (LA), alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses were performed in pooled data from the CODAM (n = 469) and Hoorn (n = 702) studies. Circulating FA were measured by gas liquid chromatography and expressed as proportions (% of total FA) and concentrations (µg/mL). Dietary intakes were calculated from a validated food frequency questionnaire. Effects of participant characteristics on associations between dietary and circulating FA were calculated using interaction analyses. RESULTS: Standardized regression coefficients between dietary FA and proportions of circulating FA (% of total FA) were LA ß = 0.28, ALA ß = 0.13, EPA ß = 0.34, and DHA ß = 0.45. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and presence of CVD influenced associations for LA; gender influenced LA, EPA, and DHA; alcohol intake influenced LA and DHA; and glucose tolerance status influenced ALA (p values interaction <0.05). Coefficients for circulating FA as concentrations were LA ß = 0.19, ALA ß = 0.10, EPA ß = 0.31, and DHA ß = 0.41. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that characteristics such as BMI, alcohol intake, and expressing circulating FA as proportions or concentrations, influence associations between dietary and circulating FA.

External Validation of a Tool Predicting 7-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes or Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases. DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance. PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95% CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95% CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95% CI 0.66-0.75]). CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

Size and shape of the associations of glucose, HbA1c, insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes: the Hoorn Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA1c, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA1c, 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA1c with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA1c, HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers.

Heterogeneity in glucose response curves during an oral glucose tolerance test and associated cardiometabolic risk.

We aimed to examine heterogeneity in glucose response curves during an oral glucose tolerance test with multiple measurements and to compare cardiometabolic risk profiles between identified glucose response curve groups. We analyzed data from 1,267 individuals without diabetes from five studies in Denmark, the Netherlands and the USA. Each study included between 5 and 11 measurements at different time points during a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test, resulting in 9,602 plasma glucose measurements. Latent class trajectories with a cubic specification for time were fitted to identify different patterns of plasma glucose change during the oral glucose tolerance test. Cardiometabolic risk factor profiles were compared between the identified groups. Using latent class trajectory analysis, five glucose response curves were identified. Despite similar fasting and 2-h values, glucose peaks and peak times varied greatly between groups, ranging from 7-12 mmol/L, and 35-70 min. The group with the lowest and earliest plasma glucose peak had the lowest estimated cardiovascular risk, while the group with the most delayed plasma glucose peak and the highest 2-h value had the highest estimated risk. One group, with normal fasting and 2-h values, exhibited an unusual profile, with the highest glucose peak and the highest proportion of smokers and men. The heterogeneity in glucose response curves and the distinct cardiometabolic risk profiles may reflect different underlying physiologies. Our results warrant more detailed studies to identify the source of the heterogeneity across the different phenotypes and whether these differences play a role in the development of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

Circulating linoleic acid and alpha-linolenic acid and glucose metabolism: the Hoorn Study.

PURPOSE: Data on the relation between linoleic acid (LA) and alpha-linolenic acid (ALA) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk are scarce and inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of serum LA and ALA with fasting and 2 h post-load plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). METHOD: This study included 667 participants from third examination (2000) of the population-based Hoorn study in which individuals with glucose intolerance were overrepresented. Fatty acid profiles in serum total lipids were measured at baseline, in 2000. Diabetes risk markers were measured at baseline and follow-up in 2008. Linear regression models were used in cross-sectional and prospective analyses. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses (n = 667), serum LA was inversely associated with plasma glucose, both in fasting conditions (B = -0.024 [-0.045, -0.002]) and 2 h after glucose tolerance test (B = -0.099 [-0.158, -0.039]), but not with HbA1c (B = 0.000 [-0.014, 0.013]), after adjustment for relevant factors. In prospective analyses (n = 257), serum LA was not associated with fasting (B = 0.003 [-0.019, 0.025]) or post-load glucose (B = -0.026 [-0.100, 0.049]). Furthermore, no significant associations were found between serum ALA and glucose metabolism in cross-sectional or prospective analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, serum LA was inversely associated with fasting and post-load glucose in cross-sectional, but not in prospective analyses. Further studies are needed to elucidate the exact role of serum LA and ALA levels and dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids in glucose metabolism.