Probabilistic description of dissipative chaotic scattering.

We investigate the extent to which the probabilistic properties of chaotic scattering systems with dissipation can be understood from the properties of the dissipation-free system. For large energies, a fully chaotic scattering leads to an exponential decay of the survival probability P(t)∼e^{-κt}, with an escape rate κ that decreases with energy. Dissipation leads to the appearance of different finite-time regimes in P(t). We show how these different regimes can be understood for small dissipations and long times from the (effective) escape rate κ (including the nonhyperbolic regime) of the conservative system, until the energy reaches a critical value at which no escape is possible. More generally, we argue that for small dissipation and long times the surviving trajectories in the dissipative system are distributed according to the conditionally invariant measure of the conservative system at the corresponding energy. Quantitative predictions of our general theory are compared with numerical simulations in the Hénon-Heiles model.

Nonassortative relationships between groups of nodes are typical in complex networks.

Decomposing a graph into groups of nodes that share similar connectivity properties is essential to understand the organization and function of complex networks. Previous works have focused on groups with specific relationships between group members, such as assortative communities or core-periphery structures, developing computational methods to find these mesoscale structures within a network. Here, we go beyond these two traditional cases and introduce a methodology that is able to identify and systematically classify all possible community types in directed multi graphs, based on the pairwise relationship between groups. We apply our approach to 53 different networks and find that assortative communities are the most common structures, but that previously unexplored types appear in almost every network. A particularly prevalent new type of relationship, which we call a source-basin structure, has information flowing from a sparsely connected group of nodes (source) to a densely connected group (basin). We look in detail at two online social networks-a new network of Twitter users and a well-studied network of political blogs-and find that source-basin structures play an important role in both of them. This confirms not only the widespread appearance of nonassortative structures but also the potential of hitherto unidentified relationships to explain the organization of complex networks.

Modelling daily weight variation in honey bee hives.

A quantitative understanding of the dynamics of bee colonies is important to support global efforts to improve bee health and enhance pollination services. Traditional approaches focus either on theoretical models or data-centred statistical analyses. Here we argue that the combination of these two approaches is essential to obtain interpretable information on the state of bee colonies and show how this can be achieved in the case of time series of intra-day weight variation. We model how the foraging and food processing activities of bees affect global hive weight through a set of ordinary differential equations and show how to estimate the parameters of this model from measurements on a single day. Our analysis of 10 hives at different times shows that the estimation of crucial indicators of the health of honey bee colonies are statistically reliable and fall in ranges compatible with previously reported results. The crucial indicators, which include the amount of food collected (foraging success) and the number of active foragers, may be used to develop early warning indicators of colony failure.

Spatial interactions in urban scaling laws.

Analyses of urban scaling laws assume that observations in different cities are independent of the existence of nearby cities. Here we introduce generative models and data-analysis methods that overcome this limitation by modelling explicitly the effect of interactions between individuals at different locations. Parameters that describe the scaling law and the spatial interactions are inferred from data simultaneously, allowing for rigorous (Bayesian) model comparison and overcoming the problem of defining the boundaries of urban regions. Results in five different datasets show that including spatial interactions typically leads to better models and a change in the exponent of the scaling law.

Scaling laws and dynamics of hashtags on Twitter.

In this paper, we quantify the statistical properties and dynamics of the frequency of hashtag use on Twitter. Hashtags are special words used in social media to attract attention and to organize content. Looking at the collection of all hashtags used in a period of time, we identify the scaling laws underpinning the hashtag frequency distribution (Zipf's law), the number of unique hashtags as a function of sample size (Heaps' law), and the fluctuations around expected values (Taylor's law). While these scaling laws appear to be universal, in the sense that similar exponents are observed irrespective of when the sample is gathered, the volume and the nature of the hashtags depend strongly on time, with the appearance of bursts at the minute scale, fat-tailed noise, and long-range correlations. We quantify this dynamics by computing the Jensen-Shannon divergence between hashtag distributions obtained τ times apart and we find that the speed of change decays roughly as 1/τ. Our findings are based on the analysis of 3.5×109 hashtags used between 2015 and 2016.

Unraveling the Origin of Social Bursts in Collective Attention.

In the era of social media, every day billions of individuals produce content in socio-technical systems resulting in a deluge of information. However, human attention is a limited resource and it is increasingly challenging to consume the most suitable content for one's interests. In fact, the complex interplay between individual and social activities in social systems overwhelmed by information results in bursty activity of collective attention which are still poorly understood. Here, we tackle this challenge by analyzing the online activity of millions of users in a popular microblogging platform during exceptional events, from NBA Finals to the elections of Pope Francis and the discovery of gravitational waves. We observe extreme fluctuations in collective attention that we are able to characterize and explain by considering the co-occurrence of two fundamental factors: the heterogeneity of social interactions and the preferential attention towards influential users. Our findings demonstrate how combining simple mechanisms provides a route towards understanding complex social phenomena.

Structure of resonance eigenfunctions for chaotic systems with partial escape.

Physical systems are often neither completely closed nor completely open, but instead are best described by dynamical systems with partial escape or absorption. In this paper we introduce classical measures that explain the main properties of resonance eigenfunctions of chaotic quantum systems with partial escape. We construct a family of conditionally invariant measures with varying decay rates by interpolating between the natural measures of the forward and backward dynamics. Numerical simulations in a representative system show that our classical measures correctly describe the main features of the quantum eigenfunctions: their multifractal phase-space distribution, their product structure along stable and unstable directions, and their dependence on the decay rate. The (Jensen-Shannon) distance between classical and quantum measures goes to zero in the semiclassical limit for long- and short-lived eigenfunctions, while it remains finite for intermediate cases.

Micro-, meso-, macroscales: The effect of triangles on communities in networks.

Mesoscale structures (communities) are used to understand the macroscale properties of complex networks, such as their functionality and formation mechanisms. Microscale structures are known to exist in most complex networks (e.g., large number of triangles or motifs), but they are absent in the simple random-graph models considered (e.g., as null models) in community-detection algorithms. In this paper we investigate the effect of microstructures on the appearance of communities in networks. We find that alone the presence of triangles leads to the appearance of communities even in methods designed to avoid the detection of communities in random networks. This shows that communities can emerge spontaneously from simple processes of motiff generation happening at a microlevel. Our results are based on four widely used community-detection approaches (stochastic block model, spectral method, modularity maximization, and the Infomap algorithm) and three different generative network models (triadic closure, generalized configuration model, and random graphs with triangles).

Testing Statistical Laws in Complex Systems.

The availability of large datasets requires an improved view on statistical laws in complex systems, such as Zipf's law of word frequencies, the Gutenberg-Richter law of earthquake magnitudes, or scale-free degree distribution in networks. In this Letter, we discuss how the statistical analysis of these laws are affected by correlations present in the observations, the typical scenario for data from complex systems. We first show how standard maximum-likelihood recipes lead to false rejections of statistical laws in the presence of correlations. We then propose a conservative method (based on shuffling and undersampling the data) to test statistical laws and find that accounting for correlations leads to smaller rejection rates and larger confidence intervals on estimated parameters.

Taming chaos to sample rare events: The effect of weak chaos.

Rare events in nonlinear dynamical systems are difficult to sample because of the sensitivity to perturbations of initial conditions and of complex landscapes in phase space. Here, we discuss strategies to control these difficulties and succeed in obtaining an efficient sampling within a Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo framework. After reviewing previous successes in the case of strongly chaotic systems, we discuss the case of weakly chaotic systems. We show how different types of nonhyperbolicities limit the efficiency of previously designed sampling methods, and we discuss strategies on how to account for them. We focus on paradigmatic low-dimensional chaotic systems such as the logistic map, the Pomeau-Maneville map, and area-preserving maps with mixed phase space.

The common origin of symmetry and structure in genetic sequences.

Biologists have long sought a way to explain how statistical properties of genetic sequences emerged and are maintained through evolution. On the one hand, non-random structures at different scales indicate a complex genome organisation. On the other hand, single-strand symmetry has been scrutinised using neutral models in which correlations are not considered or irrelevant, contrary to empirical evidence. Different studies investigated these two statistical features separately, reaching minimal consensus despite sustained efforts. Here we unravel previously unknown symmetries in genetic sequences, which are organized hierarchically through scales in which non-random structures are known to be present. These observations are confirmed through the statistical analysis of the human genome and explained through a simple domain model. These results suggest that domain models which account for the cumulative action of mobile elements can explain simultaneously non-random structures and symmetries in genetic sequences.

A network approach to topic models.

One of the main computational and scientific challenges in the modern age is to extract useful information from unstructured texts. Topic models are one popular machine-learning approach that infers the latent topical structure of a collection of documents. Despite their success-particularly of the most widely used variant called latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-and numerous applications in sociology, history, and linguistics, topic models are known to suffer from severe conceptual and practical problems, for example, a lack of justification for the Bayesian priors, discrepancies with statistical properties of real texts, and the inability to properly choose the number of topics. We obtain a fresh view of the problem of identifying topical structures by relating it to the problem of finding communities in complex networks. We achieve this by representing text corpora as bipartite networks of documents and words. By adapting existing community-detection methods (using a stochastic block model (SBM) with nonparametric priors), we obtain a more versatile and principled framework for topic modeling (for example, it automatically detects the number of topics and hierarchically clusters both the words and documents). The analysis of artificial and real corpora demonstrates that our SBM approach leads to better topic models than LDA in terms of statistical model selection. Our work shows how to formally relate methods from community detection and topic modeling, opening the possibility of cross-fertilization between these two fields.

Monte Carlo sampling in diffusive dynamical systems.

We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements, where deviations from a diffusive process are most prominent. We search for initial conditions using a proposal that correlates states in the Markov chain constructed via a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We show that our method outperforms the direct sampling method and also Metropolis-Hastings methods with alternative proposals. We test our general method through numerical simulations in 1D (box-map) and 2D (Lorentz gas) systems.

Using text analysis to quantify the similarity and evolution of scientific disciplines.

We use an information-theoretic measure of linguistic similarity to investigate the organization and evolution of scientific fields. An analysis of almost 20 M papers from the past three decades reveals that the linguistic similarity is related but different from experts and citation-based classifications, leading to an improved view on the organization of science. A temporal analysis of the similarity of fields shows that some fields (e.g. computer science) are becoming increasingly central, but that on average the similarity between pairs of disciplines has not changed in the last decades. This suggests that tendencies of convergence (e.g. multi-disciplinarity) and divergence (e.g. specialization) of disciplines are in balance.

Stochastic dynamics and the predictability of big hits in online videos.

The competition for the attention of users is a central element of the Internet. Crucial issues are the origin and predictability of big hits, the few items that capture a big portion of the total attention. We address these issues analyzing 10^{6} time series of videos' views from YouTube. We find that the average gain of views is linearly proportional to the number of views a video already has, in agreement with usual rich-get-richer mechanisms and Gibrat's law, but this fails to explain the prevalence of big hits. The reason is that the fluctuations around the average views are themselves heavy tailed. Based on these empirical observations, we propose a stochastic differential equation with Lévy noise as a model of the dynamics of videos. We show how this model is substantially better in estimating the probability of an ordinary item becoming a big hit, which is considerably underestimated in the traditional proportional-growth models.

Importance-sampling computation of statistical properties of coupled oscillators.

We introduce and implement an importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm to study systems of globally coupled oscillators. Our computational method efficiently obtains estimates of the tails of the distribution of various measures of dynamical trajectories corresponding to states occurring with (exponentially) small probabilities. We demonstrate the general validity of our results by applying the method to two contrasting cases: the driven-dissipative Kuramoto model, a paradigm in the study of spontaneous synchronization; and the conservative Hamiltonian mean-field model, a prototypical system of long-range interactions. We present results for the distribution of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent and a time-averaged order parameter. Among other features, our results show most notably that the distributions exhibit a vanishing standard deviation but a skewness that is increasing in magnitude with the number of oscillators, implying that nontrivial asymmetries and states yielding rare or atypical values of the observables persist even for a large number of oscillators.

Impact of lexical and sentiment factors on the popularity of scientific papers.

We investigate how textual properties of scientific papers relate to the number of citations they receive. Our main finding is that correlations are nonlinear and affect differently the most cited and typical papers. For instance, we find that, in most journals, short titles correlate positively with citations only for the most cited papers, whereas for typical papers, the correlation is usually negative. Our analysis of six different factors, calculated both at the title and abstract level of 4.3 million papers in over 1500 journals, reveals the number of authors, and the length and complexity of the abstract, as having the strongest (positive) influence on the number of citations.

Sampling Motif-Constrained Ensembles of Networks.

The statistical significance of network properties is conditioned on null models which satisfy specified properties but that are otherwise random. Exponential random graph models are a principled theoretical framework to generate such constrained ensembles, but which often fail in practice, either due to model inconsistency or due to the impossibility to sample networks from them. These problems affect the important case of networks with prescribed clustering coefficient or number of small connected subgraphs (motifs). In this Letter we use the Wang-Landau method to obtain a multicanonical sampling that overcomes both these problems. We sample, in polynomial time, networks with arbitrary degree sequences from ensembles with imposed motifs counts. Applying this method to social networks, we investigate the relation between transitivity and homophily, and we quantify the correlation between different types of motifs, finding that single motifs can explain up to 60% of the variation of motif profiles.

Temporal-varying failures of nodes in networks.

We consider networks in which random walkers are removed because of the failure of specific nodes. We interpret the rate of loss as a measure of the importance of nodes, a notion we denote as failure centrality. We show that the degree of the node is not sufficient to determine this measure and that, in a first approximation, the shortest loops through the node have to be taken into account. We propose approximations of the failure centrality which are valid for temporal-varying failures, and we dwell on the possibility of externally changing the relative importance of nodes in a given network by exploiting the interference between the loops of a node and the cycles of the temporal pattern of failures. In the limit of long failure cycles we show analytically that the escape in a node is larger than the one estimated from a stochastic failure with the same failure probability. We test our general formalism in two real-world networks (air-transportation and e-mail users) and show how communities lead to deviations from predictions for failures in hubs.

Quantum signatures of classical multifractal measures.

A clear signature of classical chaoticity in the quantum regime is the fractal Weyl law, which connects the density of eigenstates to the dimension D(0) of the classical invariant set of open systems. Quantum systems of interest are often partially open (e.g., cavities in which trajectories are partially reflected or absorbed). In the corresponding classical systems D(0) is trivial (equal to the phase-space dimension), and the fractality is manifested in the (multifractal) spectrum of Rényi dimensions D(q). In this paper we investigate the effect of such multifractality on the Weyl law. Our numerical simulations in area-preserving maps show for a wide range of configurations and system sizes M that (i) the Weyl law is governed by a dimension different from D(0)=2, and (ii) the observed dimension oscillates as a function of M and other relevant parameters. We propose a classical model that considers an undersampled measure of the chaotic invariant set, explains our two observations, and predicts that the Weyl law is governed by a nontrivial dimension D(asymptotic)