Child injuries in Ethiopia: A review of the current situation with projections.

BACKGROUND: Heavy burden of child injuries and lack of policy response in Ethiopia call for an improved understanding of the situation and development of action plans from multiple governmental agencies and stakeholders. METHODS: A consortium of international and Ethiopian researchers and stakeholders used extensive literature review and mixed analytical methods to estimate and project the burden of fatal and non-fatal child unintentional injuries in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2030. Estimates were derived for children aged 0-14 years. Data sources include a longitudinal study conducted by the Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia and the World Bank as well as model-based estimates from World Health Organization 2017 and Global Burden of Disease 2016 project. RESULTS: Injuries caused about 25 thousand deaths among 0-14-year olds in Ethiopia in 2015. The leading cause of fatal child unintentional injuries in Ethiopia was road-traffic injuries, followed by fire, heat and hot substances and drowning. The death rate due to injuries among 0-14 years olds was about 50 percent higher in males than females. Rural children were exposed to a greater risk of injury than their urban peers. The longitudinal survey suggests that the incidence rate of child injuries increased during the period 2011-2014. The annual mortality caused by injuries is projected to increase from 10,697 in 2015 to 11,279 in 2020 and 11,989 in 2030 among children under 5 years, an increase of 12 percentage points in 15 years. The number of deaths among 0-14-year olds will be 26,463, 27,807, and 30,364 respectively in 2015, 2020, and 2030. CONCLUSIONS: As the first multisectoral collaboration on child injuries in Ethiopia, this study identified gaps in understanding of the burden of child injuries in Ethiopia. In consultation with Ethiopian government and other stakeholders, we propose starting an injury surveillance system at health clinics and hospitals and building an intervention package based on existing platforms.

Implications of adopting new WHO guidelines for antiretroviral therapy initiation in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the implications of implementing the World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 guidelines for antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in adults and adolescents with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which recommend initiating ART at a CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4+) threshold of ≤ 350 cells/mm(3) instead of ≤ 200 cells/mm(3), which was the earlier threshold. METHODS: Between April and May 2010, CD4+ test results were collected for all HIV-infected patients recorded in the pre-ART and ART registers of 19 high-patient-load health centres in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and the regions of Amhara, Oromia, SNNPR (Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's Region) and Tigray. At 12 centres patient records were independently reviewed to assess data accuracy. To estimate the total number of patients who would need ART at health centres if Ethiopia adopted the new WHO guidelines, the number of patients needing ART based on current guidelines were added to the number of asymptomatic patients enrolled in pre-ART with a CD4+ count > 200 but ≤ 350 cells/mm(3) FINDINGS: Adoption of the new WHO guidelines would increase the total number of patients on ART in the 19 health centres in Ethiopia by about 30%: from 3583 to 4640. CONCLUSION: The shift in the CD4+ threshold for ART initiation will substantially increase the demand for ART in Ethiopia. Since under the current systems only 60% of Ethiopia's patients in need of ART are receiving the medications, scaling up ART programmes to accommodate the increased demand for drugs will not be possible unless government funding and support increase concurrently.