Whole-brain diffusion tensor imaging predicts 6-month functional outcome in acute intracerebral haemorrhage.

INTRODUCTION: Small vessel disease (SVD) causes most spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and is associated with widespread microstructural brain tissue disruption, which can be quantified via diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) metrics: mean diffusivity (MD) and fractional anisotropy (FA). Little is known about the impact of whole-brain microstructural alterations after SVD-related ICH. We aimed to investigate: (1) association between whole-brain DTI metrics and functional outcome after ICH; and (2) predictive ability of these metrics compared to the pre-existing ICH score. METHODS: Sixty-eight patients (38.2% lobar) were retrospectively included. We assessed whole-brain DTI metrics (obtained within 5 days after ICH) in cortical and deep grey matter and white matter. We used univariable logistic regression to assess the associations between DTI and clinical-radiological variables and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale > 2). We determined the optimal predictive variables (via LASSO estimation) in: model 1 (DTI variables only), model 2 (DTI plus non-DTI variables), model 3 (DTI plus ICH score). Optimism-adjusted C-statistics were calculated for each model and compared (likelihood ratio test) against the ICH score. RESULTS: Deep grey matter MD (OR 1.04 [95% CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.010) and white matter MD (OR 1.11 [95% CI 1.01-1.23], p = 0.044) were associated (univariate analysis) with poor outcome. Discrimination values for model 1 (0.67 [95% CI 0.52-0.83]), model 2 (0.71 [95% CI 0.57-0.85) and model 3 (0.66 [95% CI 0.52-0.82]) were all significantly higher than the ICH score (0.62 [95% CI 0.49-0.75]). CONCLUSION: Our exploratory study suggests that whole-brain microstructural disruption measured by DTI is associated with poor 6-month functional outcome after SVD-related ICH. Whole-brain DTI metrics performed better at predicting recovery than the existing ICH score.

Predicting prognosis for adults with depression using individual symptom data: a comparison of modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data. METHODS: Individual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (k = 3, n = 1722) and test (k = 3, n = 918) nine models. Predictors included depressive and anxiety symptoms, social support, life events and alcohol use. Weighted sum scores were developed using coefficient weights derived from network centrality statistics (models 1-3) and factor loadings from a confirmatory factor analysis (model 4). Unweighted sum score models were tested using elastic net regularised (ENR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (models 5 and 6). Individual items were then included in ENR and OLS (models 7 and 8). All models were compared to one another and to a null model (mean post-baseline Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) score in the training data: model 9). Primary outcome: BDI-II scores at 3-4 months. RESULTS: Models 1-7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1-6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact. CONCLUSIONS: Any of the modelling techniques (models 1-7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression.

Acute corticospinal tract diffusion tensor imaging predicts 6-month functional outcome after intracerebral haemorrhage.

INTRODUCTION: Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) can assess the structural integrity of the corticospinal tract (CST) in vivo. We aimed to investigate whether CST DTI metrics after intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) are associated with 6-month functional outcome and can improve the predictive performance of the existing ICH score. METHODS: We retrospectively included 42 patients with DTI performed within 5 days after deep supratentorial spontaneous ICH. Ipsilesional-to-contralesional ratios were calculated for fractional anisotropy (rFA) and mean diffusivity (rMD) in the pontine segment (PS) of the CST. We determined the most predictive variables for poor 6-month functional outcome [modified Rankin Scale (mRS) > 2] using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. We calculated discrimination using optimism-adjusted estimation of the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Patients with 6-month mRS > 2 had lower rFA (0.945 [± 0.139] vs 1.045 [± 0.130]; OR 0.004 [95% CI 0.00-0.77]; p = 0.04) and higher rMD (1.233 [± 0.418] vs 0.963 [± 0.211]; OR 22.5 [95% CI 1.46-519.68]; p = 0.02). Discrimination (AUC) values were: 0.76 (95% CI 0.61-0.91) for the ICH score, 0.71 (95% CI 0.54-0.89) for rFA, and 0.72 (95% CI 0.61-0.91) for rMD. Combined models with DTI and non-DTI variables offer an improvement in discrimination: for the best model, the AUC was 0.82 ([95% CI 0.68-0.95]; p = 0.15). CONCLUSION: In our exploratory study, PS-CST rFA and rMD had comparable predictive ability to the ICH score for 6-month functional outcome. Adding DTI metrics to clinical-radiological scores might improve discrimination, but this needs to be investigated in larger studies.

Role of age, gender and marital status in prognosis for adults with depression: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

AIMS: To determine whether age, gender and marital status are associated with prognosis for adults with depression who sought treatment in primary care. METHODS: Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and Cochrane Central were searched from inception to 1st December 2020 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adults seeking treatment for depression from their general practitioners, that used the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule so that there was uniformity in the measurement of clinical prognostic factors, and that reported on age, gender and marital status. Individual participant data were gathered from all nine eligible RCTs (N = 4864). Two-stage random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to ascertain the independent association between: (i) age, (ii) gender and (iii) marital status, and depressive symptoms at 3-4, 6-8, and 9-12 months post-baseline and remission at 3-4 months. Risk of bias was evaluated using QUIPS and quality was assessed using GRADE. PROSPERO registration: CRD42019129512. Pre-registered protocol https://osf.io/e5zup/. RESULTS: There was no evidence of an association between age and prognosis before or after adjusting for depressive 'disorder characteristics' that are associated with prognosis (symptom severity, durations of depression and anxiety, comorbid panic disorderand a history of antidepressant treatment). Difference in mean depressive symptom score at 3-4 months post-baseline per-5-year increase in age = 0(95% CI: -0.02 to 0.02). There was no evidence for a difference in prognoses for men and women at 3-4 months or 9-12 months post-baseline, but men had worse prognoses at 6-8 months (percentage difference in depressive symptoms for men compared to women: 15.08% (95% CI: 4.82 to 26.35)). However, this was largely driven by a single study that contributed data at 6-8 months and not the other time points. Further, there was little evidence for an association after adjusting for depressive 'disorder characteristics' and employment status (12.23% (-1.69 to 28.12)). Participants that were either single (percentage difference in depressive symptoms for single participants: 9.25% (95% CI: 2.78 to 16.13) or no longer married (8.02% (95% CI: 1.31 to 15.18)) had worse prognoses than those that were married, even after adjusting for depressive 'disorder characteristics' and all available confounders. CONCLUSION: Clinicians and researchers will continue to routinely record age and gender, but despite their importance for incidence and prevalence of depression, they appear to offer little information regarding prognosis. Patients that are single or no longer married may be expected to have slightly worse prognoses than those that are married. Ensuring this is recorded routinely alongside depressive 'disorder characteristics' in clinic may be important.

The importance of transdiagnostic symptom level assessment to understanding prognosis for depressed adults: analysis of data from six randomised control trials.

BACKGROUND: Depression is commonly perceived as a single underlying disease with a number of potential treatment options. However, patients with major depression differ dramatically in their symptom presentation and comorbidities, e.g. with anxiety disorders. There are also large variations in treatment outcomes and associations of some anxiety comorbidities with poorer prognoses, but limited understanding as to why, and little information to inform the clinical management of depression. There is a need to improve our understanding of depression, incorporating anxiety comorbidity, and consider the association of a wide range of symptoms with treatment outcomes. METHOD: Individual patient data from six RCTs of depressed patients (total n = 2858) were used to estimate the differential impact symptoms have on outcomes at three post intervention time points using individual items and sum scores. Symptom networks (graphical Gaussian model) were estimated to explore the functional relations among symptoms of depression and anxiety and compare networks for treatment remitters and those with persistent symptoms to identify potential prognostic indicators. RESULTS: Item-level prediction performed similarly to sum scores when predicting outcomes at 3 to 4 months and 6 to 8 months, but outperformed sum scores for 9 to 12 months. Pessimism emerged as the most important predictive symptom (relative to all other symptoms), across these time points. In the network structure at study entry, symptoms clustered into physical symptoms, cognitive symptoms, and anxiety symptoms. Sadness, pessimism, and indecision acted as bridges between communities, with sadness and failure/worthlessness being the most central (i.e. interconnected) symptoms. Connectivity of networks at study entry did not differ for future remitters vs. those with persistent symptoms. CONCLUSION: The relative importance of specific symptoms in association with outcomes and the interactions within the network highlight the value of transdiagnostic assessment and formulation of symptoms to both treatment and prognosis. We discuss the potential for complementary statistical approaches to improve our understanding of psychopathology.

Baseline factors associated with early and late death in intracerebral haemorrhage survivors.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether early and late death are associated with different baseline factors in intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) survivors. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the multicentre prospective observational CROMIS-2 ICH study. Death was defined as 'early' if occurring within 6 months of study entry and 'late' if occurring after this time point. RESULTS: In our cohort (n = 1094), there were 306 deaths (per 100 patient-years: absolute event rate, 11.7; 95% confidence intervals, 10.5-13.1); 156 were 'early' and 150 'late'. In multivariable analyses, early death was independently associated with age [per year increase; hazard ratio (HR), 1.05, P = 0.003], history of hypertension (HR, 1.89, P = 0.038), pre-event modified Rankin scale score (per point increase; HR, 1.41, P < 0.0001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (per point increase; HR, 1.11, P < 0.0001) and haemorrhage volume >60 mL (HR, 4.08, P < 0.0001). Late death showed independent associations with age (per year increase; HR, 1.04, P = 0.003), pre-event modified Rankin scale score (per point increase; HR, 1.42, P = 0.001), prior anticoagulant use (HR, 2.13, P = 0.028) and the presence of intraventricular extension (HR, 1.73, P = 0.033) in multivariable analyses. In further analyses where time was treated as continuous (rather than dichotomized), the HR of previous cerebral ischaemic events increased with time, whereas HRs for Glasgow Coma Scale score, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and ICH volume decreased over time. CONCLUSIONS: We provide new evidence that not all baseline factors associated with early mortality after ICH are associated with mortality after 6 months and that the effects of baseline variables change over time. Our findings could help design better prognostic scores for later death after ICH.

Umbrella review and meta-analysis of antiplatelet therapy for peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The literature on antiplatelet therapy for peripheral artery disease has historically been summarized inconsistently, leading to conflict between international guidelines. An umbrella review and meta-analysis was performed to summarize the literature, allow assessment of competing safety risks and clinical benefits, and identify weak areas for future research. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, DARE, PROSPERO and Cochrane databases were searched from inception until January 2019. All meta-analyses of antiplatelet therapy in peripheral artery disease were included. Quality was assessed using AMSTAR scores, and GRADE analysis was used to quantify the strength of evidence. Data were pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: Twenty-eight meta-analyses were included. Thirty-three clinical outcomes and 41 antiplatelet comparisons in 72 181 patients were analysed. High-quality evidence showed that antiplatelet monotherapy reduced non-fatal strokes (3 (95 per cent c.i. 0 to 6) fewer per 1000 patients), In symptomatic patients, it reduced cardiovascular deaths (8 (0 to 16) fewer per 1000 patients), but increased the risk of major bleeding (7 (3 to 14) more events per 1000). In asymptomatic patients, monotherapy reduced non-fatal strokes (5 (0 to 8) fewer per 1000), but had no other clinical benefit. Dual antiplatelet therapy caused more major bleeding after intervention than monotherapy (37 (8 to 102) more events per 1000), with very low-quality evidence of improved endovascular patency (risk ratio 4·00, 95 per cent c.i. 0·91 to 17·68). CONCLUSION: Antiplatelet monotherapy has minimal clinical benefit for asymptomatic peripheral artery disease, and limited benefit for symptomatic disease, with a clear risk of major bleeding. There is a lack of evidence to guide antiplatelet prescribing after peripheral endovascular intervention.

ANTECEDENTES: Históricamente, la literatura del tratamiento antiplaquetario en la enfermedad arterial periférica se ha sintetizado inconsistentemente, lo que ha dado lugar a divergencias entre las guías internacionales. Se efectuó una amplia revision con metaanálisis para sintetizar claramente la literatura, permitiendo evaluar los riesgos competitivos de seguridad y los beneficios clínicos, e identificar áreas poco claras susceptibles de futuras investigaciones. MÉTODOS: La búsqueda se realizó en las bases de datos MEDLINE, EMBASE, DARE, PROSPERO y Cochrane desde su inicio hasta enero de 2019. Se incluyeron todos los metaanálisis del tratamiento antiplaquetario en la enfermedad arterial periférica. Se estimó su calidad utilizando la puntuación Amstar y la consistencia de su evidencia mediante el sistema GRADE. Los datos se agruparon utilizando modelos de efectos aleatorios. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 28 metaanálisis. Se analizaron 33 resultados clínicos y 41 comparaciones antiplaquetarias en 72.181 pacientes. Una evidencia de alta calidad demostró que la monoterapia antiplaquetaria reducía los accidentes cerebrovasculares no mortales y la muerte cardiovascular en pacientes sintomáticos (3 y 8 veces menos por 1.000 pacientes, respectivamente, i.c. del 95% 0-6 y 0-16), pero aumentó el riesgo de hemorragia grave (7 veces más por 1.000, i.c. del 95% 3-14). En pacientes asintomáticos, la monoterapia redujo los accidentes cerebrovasculares no mortales (5 veces menos por 1.000, i.c. del 95% 0-8) sin otro beneficio clínico. El doble tratamiento antiplaquetario causó más hemorragias graves después de cualquier intervención que la monoterapia (37 veces más por 1.000, i.c. del 95% 8-102), con una evidencia de muy baja calidad acerca de la mejoría de la permeabilidad endovascular (riesgo relativo 4,00, i.c. del 95% 0,91-17,68). CONCLUSIÓN: La monoterapia antiplaquetaria tiene un beneficio clínico mínimo en la enfermedad arterial periférica asintomática y un beneficio limitado en la sintomática, con un claro riesgo de hemorragia grave. No existe evidencia para recomendar la prescripción de antiagregantes plaquetarios después de una intervención endovascular periférica, situación que debería abordarse en ensayos aleatorizados con una potencia estadística adecuada.

Angiosome Specific Revascularisation: Does the Evidence Support It?

OBJECTIVE: To explain the angiosome concept and explore the practical application of the angiosome literature to a clinical scenario, in this case a tibial angioplasty for critical ischaemia. METHODS: Clinical vignette with explanation of the decisions made and subsequent clinical results based on the theory of the angiosome concept and the literature on angiosomal revascularisation; in this case the results of our group's recent update to a systematic review and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Endovascular combined or direct angiosomal revascularisation if superior to indirect revascularisation. This was borne out in the clinical scenario, where an indirect peroneal reperfusion of the AT angiosome resulted in major amputation. Open surgery is less dependent on the angiosome concept. The presence of adequate collateralisation into a foot arch seems to be the most important factor predicting success of indirect revascularisation. The evidence for both suffers from selection bias and many of the findings in the literature are wholly due to selection bias. CONCLUSION: The angiosome concept is useful during both open and endovascular tibial revascularisation. However, the runoff in the foot is critical to success and may not follow the 'classic' angiosome model in diabetes.

ESHRE/ESGE female genital tract anomalies classification system-the potential impact of discarding arcuate uterus on clinical practice.

STUDY QUESTION: What would be a potential impact of implementing the new ESHRE/European Society of Gynaecological Endoscopy (ESGE) female genital anomalies classification system on the management of women with previous diagnosis of arcuate uteri based on the modified American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) criteria? SUMMARY ANSWER: A significant number of women with previous diagnosis of arcuate uteri are reclassified as having partial septate uteri according to the new ESHRE/ESGE classification system which may increase the number of remedial surgical procedures. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The ESHRE/ESGE classification system has defined measurement techniques, reference points and specific cut-offs to facilitate the differentiation between normal and septate uteri. These criteria have been arbitrarily defined and they rely on the measurement of uterine wall thickness and depth of distortion of uterine fundus. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a retrospective cohort study. We searched our ultrasound clinic database from January 2011 to December 2014 to identify all women diagnosed with arcuate uterus on three-dimensional ultrasound according to the modified ASRM criteria. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: For each woman, the ultrasound images were stored in our clinical database and they were re-examined according to ESHRE/ESGE specifications. The presence and location of all acquired uterine anomalies, such as fibroids or adenomyosis was noted. We applied the two diagnostic approaches as specified by the ESHRE/ESGE classification: the main option (MO) and the alternative option (AO). We used the Kappa statistic to quantify the agreement between the two approaches. We also compared the number of previous miscarriages in women with normal and partial septate uteri according to the ESHRE/ESGE classification. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for the analyses and receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed to assess the predictive values of the calculated uterine distortion indices for the detection of women at risk of suffering multiple pregnancy losses. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We included 270 women diagnosed with arcuate uterus in the study. In all, 77 women (28.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 23.1-33.9) had evidence of fibroids or adenomyosis. These abnormalities precluded the application of either proposed ESHRE/ESGE techniques to assess uterine morphology in 25 women (9.3%, 95% CI 5.8-12.7). When using the MO, 138/237 (58.2%, 95% CI 51.9-64.3) women were diagnosed with partial septate uterus compared to 61/230 (26.5%, 95% CI 21.2-32.6) women when using the AO. In 222 women in whom we were able to apply both MO and AO, there was agreement in the diagnosis of septate uterus between the two techniques in 146/222 cases (65.8%, 95% CI 59.3-71.7; Kappa 0.42, 95%CI 0.35-0.5). There was no statistical difference in the proportion of women with history of previous multiple miscarriages between those diagnosed with normal or partial septate uteri using either MO (6.2%, 95% CI 2.9-12.9 vs. 9.5%, 95% CI 5.6-15.6; P = 0.47) or AO (7.2%, 95% CI 4.2-12.1 vs. 11.7%, 95% CI 5.8-22.2; P = 0.29). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: This study was retrospective in nature and the definition of arcuate uterus used in the study is not universally accepted. The reproductive history data were collected retrospectively and therefore may be prone to bias. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: There are methodological weaknesses in the new ESHRE/ESGE classification system which would need to be addressed in future revisions. There was no significant difference in the past reproductive outcomes between women diagnosed with normal and anomalous uteri and the clinicians should exercise caution when offering surgical correction to women diagnosed with partial septate uteri using the new ESHRE/ESGE classification. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No study funding was received and no competing interests are present. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Prospective evaluation of IOTA logistic regression models LR1 and LR2 in comparison with subjective pattern recognition for diagnosis of ovarian cancer in an outpatient setting.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression models LR1 and LR2 developed for the preoperative diagnosis of ovarian cancer could also be used to differentiate between benign and malignant adnexal tumors in the population of women attending gynecology outpatient clinics. METHODS: This was a single-center prospective observational study of consecutive women attending our gynecological diagnostic outpatient unit, recruited between May 2009 and January 2012. All the women were first examined by a Level-II ultrasound operator. In those diagnosed with adnexal tumors, the IOTA-LR1/2 protocol was used to evaluate the masses. The LR1 and LR2 models were then used to assess the risk of malignancy. Subsequently, the women were also examined by a Level-III examiner, who used pattern recognition to differentiate between benign and malignant tumors. Women with an ultrasound diagnosis of malignancy were offered surgery, while asymptomatic women with presumed benign lesions were offered conservative management with a minimum follow-up of 12 months. The initial diagnosis was compared with two reference standards: histological findings and/or a comparative assessment of tumor morphology on follow-up ultrasound scans. All women for whom the tumor classification on follow-up changed from benign to malignant were offered surgery. RESULTS: In the final analysis, 489 women who had either or both of the reference standards were included. Their mean age was 50 years (range, 16-91 years) and 45% were postmenopausal. Of the included women, 342/489 (69.9%) had surgery and 147/489 (30.1%) were managed conservatively. The malignancy rate was 137/489 (28.0%). Overall, sensitivities of LR1 and LR2 for the diagnosis of malignancy were 97.1% (95% CI, 92.7-99.2%) and 94.9% (95% CI, 89.8-97.9%) and specificities were 77.3% (95% CI, 72.5-81.5%) and 76.7% (95% CI, 71.9-81.0%), respectively (P > 0.05). In comparison with pattern recognition (sensitivity 94.2% (95% CI, 88.8-97.4%), specificity 96.3% (95% CI, 93.8-98.0%)), the specificities of the IOTA models were significantly lower (P < 0.0001). A significantly higher number of women would have been offered surgery for suspected cancer if the women had been assessed using the IOTA models instead of pattern recognition (213/489 (43.6%) vs 142/489 (29.0%); P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The IOTA models maintained their high sensitivity when used in an outpatient setting. Specificity was relatively low, which indicates that a significant proportion of the women would have been offered unnecessary surgery for suspected ovarian cancer. These findings show that the IOTA models could be used as a first-stage test to diagnose ovarian cancer in an outpatient setting, but a different second-stage test is required to minimize the number of false-positive findings. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Convexity subarachnoid haemorrhage has a high risk of intracerebral haemorrhage in suspected cerebral amyloid angiopathy.

The risk of future symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (sICH) remains uncertain in patients with acute convexity subarachnoid haemorrhage (cSAH) associated with suspected cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA). We assessed the risk of future sICH in patients presenting to our comprehensive stroke service with acute non-traumatic cSAH due to suspected CAA, between 2011 and 2016. We conducted a systematic search and pooled analysis including our cohort and other published studies including similar cohorts. Our hospital cohort included 20 patients (mean age 69 years; 60% male); 12 (60%) had probable CAA, and 6 (30%) had possible CAA according to the modified Boston criteria; two did not meet CAA criteria because of age <55 years, but were judged likely to be due to CAA. Fourteen patients (70%) had cortical superficial siderosis; 12 (60%) had cerebral microbleeds. Over a mean follow-up period of 19 months, 2 patients (9%) suffered sICH, both with probable CAA (annual sICH risk for probable CAA 8%). In a pooled analysis including our cohort and eight other studies (n = 172), the overall sICH rate per patient-year was 16% (95% CI 11-24%). In those with probable CAA (n = 104), the sICH rate per patient-year was 19% (95% CI 13-27%), compared to 7% (95% CI 3-15%) for those without probable CAA (n = 72). Patients with acute cSAH associated with suspected CAA are at high risk of future sICH (16% per patient-year); probable CAA might carry the highest risk.

Infrapopliteal angioplasty using a combined angiosomal reperfusion strategy.

INTRODUCTION: Infra-popliteal angioplasty continues to be widely performed with minimal evidence to guide practice. Endovascular device selection is contentious and there is even uncertainty over which artery to treat for optimum reperfusion. Direct reperfusion (DR) targets the artery supplying the ischaemic tissue. Indirect reperfusion (IR) targets an artery supplying collaterals to the ischaemic area. Our unit practice for the last eight years has been to attempt to open all tibial arteries at the time of angioplasty. When successful, this results in both direct and indirect; or combined reperfusion (CR). The aim was to review the outcomes of CR and compare them with DR or IR alone. METHODS: An eight year retrospective review from a single unit of all infra-popliteal angioplasties was undertaken. Wound healing, limb salvage, amputation-free and overall survival data as well as re-intervention rates were captured for all patients. Subgroup analysis for diabetics was undertaken. Kaplan Meier curves are presented for survival outcomes. All odds and hazard ratios (HR) and p values were corrected for bias from confounders using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: 250 procedures were performed: 22 (9%) were CR; 115 (46%) DR and 113 (45%) IR. Amputation-free survival (HR 0.504, p = 0.039) and re-intervention and amputation-free survival (HR 0.414, p = 0.005) were significantly improved in patients undergoing CR compared to IR. Wound healing was similarly affected by reperfusion strategy (OR = 0.35, p = 0.047). Effects of CR over IR were similar when only diabetic patients were considered. CONCLUSIONS: Combined revascularisation can only be achieved in approximately 10% of patients. However, when successful, it results in significant improvements in wound healing and amputation-free survival over simple indirect reperfusion techniques.

Weekend effect in non-elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

BACKGROUND: The 'weekend effect' describes the phenomenon where patient outcomes appear worse for those admitted at the weekend. It has been used recently to justify significant changes in UK health policy. Recent evidence has suggested that the effect may be due to a combination of inadequate correction for confounding factors and inaccurate coding. The effects of these factors were investigated in patients with acute abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). METHODS: Patients undergoing non-elective AAA repair entered into the UK National Vascular Registry from January 2013 until December 2015 were included in a case-control study. The patients were divided according to whether they were treated during the week (Monday 08.00 hours to Friday 17.00 hours) or at the weekend. Data extracted included demographics, co-morbidities, preoperative medications and baseline blood test results, as well as outcomes. Coding issues were investigated by looking at patients treated for ruptured, symptomatic or asymptomatic AAA within the non-elective cohort. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included length of inpatient stay, and cardiac, respiratory and renal complications. RESULTS: The mortality rate appeared to be higher at the weekend (odds ratio (OR) 1·69, 95 per cent c.i. 1·47 to 1·94; P < 0·001), but this effect disappeared when confounding factors and coding issues were corrected for (corrected OR for ruptured AAA 1·09, 0·92 to 1·29; P = 0·330). Differences in outcomes were similar for prolonged length of hospital stay (uncorrected OR 1·21, 95 per cent c.i. 1·06 to 1·37, P = 0·005; corrected OR for ruptured AAA 1·06, 0·91 to 1·10, P = 0·478), and morbidity outcomes. CONCLUSION: After appropriate correction for confounding factors and coding effects, there was no evidence of a significant weekend effect in the treatment of non-elective AAA in the UK.

Single-dose systemic methotrexate vs expectant management for treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy: a placebo-controlled randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Methotrexate is used routinely worldwide for the medical treatment of clinically stable women with a tubal ectopic pregnancy. This is despite the lack of robust evidence to show its superior effectiveness over expectant management. The aim of our multicenter randomized controlled trial was to compare success rates of methotrexate against placebo for the conservative treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy. METHODS: This study took place in two early-pregnancy units in the UK between August 2005 and June 2014. Inclusion criteria were clinically stable women with a conclusive ultrasound diagnosis of a tubal ectopic pregnancy, presenting with a low serum beta human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG) level of < 1500 IU/L. Women were assigned randomly to a single systemic injection of either 50 mg/m2 methotrexate or placebo. The primary outcome was a binary indicator for success of conservative management, defined as resolution of clinical symptoms and decline of serum ß-hCG to < 20 IU/L or a negative urine pregnancy test without the need for any additional medical intervention. An intention-to-treat analysis was followed. RESULTS: We recruited a total of 80 women, 42 of whom were assigned to methotrexate and 38 to placebo. The arms of the study were matched in terms of age, ethnicity, obstetric history, pregnancy characteristics and serum levels of ß-hCG and progesterone. The rates of success were similar for the two study arms: 83% with methotrexate and 76% with placebo. On univariate analysis, this difference was not statistically significant (χ2 (1 degree of freedom) = 0.53; P = 0.47). On multivariate logistic regression, the serum level of ß-hCG was the only covariate found to be significantly associated with outcome. The odds of failure increased by 0.15% for each unit increase in ß-hCG (odds ratio, 1.0015 (95% CI, 1.0002-1.003); P = 0.02). In 14 women presenting with serum ß-hCG of 1000-1500 IU/L, the success rate was 33% in those managed expectantly compared with 62% in those receiving methotrexate. This difference was not statistically significant and a larger sample size would be needed to give sufficient power to detect a difference in the subgroup of women with higher ß-hCG. In women with successful conservative treatment, there was no significant difference in median ß-hCG resolution times between study arms (17.5 (interquartile range (IQR), 14-28.0) days (n = 30) in the methotrexate group vs 14 (IQR, 7-29.5) days (n = 25) in the placebo group; P = 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study do not support the routine use of methotrexate for the treatment of clinically stable women diagnosed with tubal ectopic pregnancy presenting with low serum ß-hCG (< 1500 IU/L). Further work is required to identify a subgroup of women with tubal ectopic pregnancy and ß-hCG ≥ 1500 IU/L in whom methotrexate may offer a safe and cost-effective alternative to surgery. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Comparación entre una sola dosis de metotrexate sistémico y la conducta expectante en el tratamiento de casos de embarazo ectópico tubárico: un ensayo aleatorio controlado con placebo RESUMEN OBJETIVO: El metotrexate se utiliza de modo rutinario en todo el mundo para el tratamiento de las mujeres clínicamente estables con un embarazo ectópico tubárico. Esto sucede a pesar de la falta de evidencia rigurosa que demuestre que su eficacia es superior a la conducta expectante. El objetivo de este ensayo controlado aleatorio multicéntrico fue comparar las tasas de éxito del metotrexate con las de un placebo para el tratamiento cauteloso del embarazo ectópico tubárico. MÉTODOS: Este estudio se llevó a cabo en dos clínicas de control de gestación temprana en el Reino Unido entre agosto de 2005 y junio de 2014. Los criterios de inclusión fueron mujeres clínicamente estables con un diagnóstico ecográfico concluyente de embarazo ectópico tubárico, las cuáles presentaban una concentración sérica baja de la ß hormona coriónica gonadotrópica (ß-hCG) inferior a 1500 UI/L. Las mujeres fueron asignadas aleatoriamente a una sola inyección sistémica de 50 mg/m2 de metotrexate o a placebo. El resultado primario fue un indicador binario del éxito del tratamiento conservador, definido como la resolución de los síntomas clínicos y la disminución en el suero de la ß-hCG a <20 UI/L o una prueba de embarazo negativa en orina sin la necesidad de ninguna intervención médica adicional. Se hizo un análisis por intención de tratar. RESULTADOS: Se reclutó un total de 80 mujeres; a 42 de ellas se les asignó el metotrexate y a 38 el placebo. Los grupos del estudio se realizaron en función de la edad, el origen étnico, los antecedentes obstétricos, las características del embarazo y los niveles séricos de la ß-hCG y la progesterona. Las tasas de éxito fueron similares para los dos grupos de estudio: 83% con metotrexate y 76% con placebo. En el análisis univariante, esta diferencia no fue estadísticamente significativa (χ2 (1 grado de libertad) = 0,53; P = 0,47). En la regresión logística multivariante, el nivel sérico de la ß-hCG fue la única covariable que se encontró significativamente asociada con el resultado. Las probabilidades de fracaso aumentaron en un 0,15% por cada unidad de aumento de la ß-hCG (cociente de probabilidad 1,0015 (IC 95%, 1,0002-1,003); P = 0,02). La tasa de éxito en las 14 mujeres con un nivel sérico de la ß-hCG de 1000-1500 UI/L fue del 33% en las tratadas con conducta expectante frente al 62% en las que recibieron metotrexate. Esta diferencia no fue estadísticamente significativa, por lo que se necesitaría un tamaño de muestra mayor, lo suficiente como para poder detectar diferencias en el subgrupo de mujeres con una ß-hCG más elevada. En las mujeres en las que el tratamiento conservador tuvo éxito, no hubo una diferencia significativa en la mediana de los tiempos de resolución de la ß-hCG entre los grupos del estudio (17,5 (amplitud intercuartílica (IQR), 14-28,0) días (n = 30) en el grupo de metotrexate frente a 14 (IQR, 7-29.5) días (n = 25) en el grupo de placebo; P = 0,73). CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados de este estudio no apoyan el uso rutinario de metotrexate para el tratamiento de las mujeres clínicamente estables diagnosticadas con un embarazo ectópico tubárico que presenta un nivel sérico bajo la ß-hCG (<1500 UI/L). Serán necesarios estudios adicionales para identificar un subgrupo de mujeres con embarazo ectópico tubárico y ß-hCG ≥1500 UI/L para quienes el metotrexate puede ofrecer una alternativa segura y rentable en comparación con la cirugía. : : ,,。。 : 2005820146,2。,,ß(beta human chorionic gonadotropin,ß-hCG)<1500 IU/L。,(50 mg/m2 )。,ß-hCG<20 IU/L,。。 : 80,42,38。2、、、ß-hCG。2:83%,76%。,[χ2 (1)=0.53;P=0.47]。logistic,ß-hCG。ß-hCG,0.15%[,1.0015(95% CI,1.0002~1.003);P=0.02]。14ß-hCG1000~1500 IU/L,33%,62%。,ß-hCG。,2ß-hCG(P=0.73),17.5[(interquartile range,IQR),14~28.0](n=30),14 (IQR,7~29.5)(n=25)。 : 、、ß-hCG(<1500 IU/L)。,ß-hCG>1500 IU/L、。.

Stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of an electronic medication management system to reduce medication errors, adverse drug events and average length of stay at two paediatric hospitals: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Medication errors are the most frequent cause of preventable harm in hospitals. Medication management in paediatric patients is particularly complex and consequently potential for harms are greater than in adults. Electronic medication management (eMM) systems are heralded as a highly effective intervention to reduce adverse drug events (ADEs), yet internationally evidence of their effectiveness in paediatric populations is limited. This study will assess the effectiveness of an eMM system to reduce medication errors, ADEs and length of stay (LOS). The study will also investigate system impact on clinical work processes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial (SWCRCT) will measure changes pre-eMM and post-eMM system implementation in prescribing and medication administration error (MAE) rates, potential and actual ADEs, and average LOS. In stage 1, 8 wards within the first paediatric hospital will be randomised to receive the eMM system 1 week apart. In stage 2, the second paediatric hospital will randomise implementation of a modified eMM and outcomes will be assessed. Prescribing errors will be identified through record reviews, and MAEs through direct observation of nurses and record reviews. Actual and potential severity will be assigned. Outcomes will be assessed at the patient-level using mixed models, taking into account correlation of admissions within wards and multiple admissions for the same patient, with adjustment for potential confounders. Interviews and direct observation of clinicians will investigate the effects of the system on workflow. Data from site 1 will be used to develop improvements in the eMM and implemented at site 2, where the SWCRCT design will be repeated (stage 2). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The research has been approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Children's Hospitals Network and Macquarie University. Results will be reported through academic journals and seminar and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) 370325.

The effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy on exercise capacity and outcome following upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2014 approximately 21,200 patients were diagnosed with oesophageal and gastric cancer in England and Wales, of whom 37 % underwent planned curative treatments. Potentially curative surgical resection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. For operable locally advanced disease, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) improves survival over surgery alone. However, NAC carries the risk of toxicity and is associated with a decrease in physical fitness, which may in turn influence subsequent clinical outcome. Lower levels of physical fitness are associated with worse outcome following major surgery in general and Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery (UGI) surgery in particular. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides an objective assessment of physical fitness. The aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that NAC prior to upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery is associated with a decrease in physical fitness and that the magnitude of the change in physical fitness will predict mortality 1 year following surgery. METHODS: This study is a multi-centre, prospective, blinded, observational cohort study of participants with oesophageal and gastric cancer scheduled for neoadjuvant cancer treatment (chemo- and chemoradiotherapy) and surgery. The primary endpoints are physical fitness (oxygen uptake at lactate threshold measured using CPET) and 1-year mortality following surgery; secondary endpoints include post-operative morbidity (Post-Operative Morbidity Survey (POMS)) 5 days after surgery and patient related quality of life (EQ-5D-5 L). DISCUSSION: The principal benefits of this study, if the underlying hypothesis is correct, will be to facilitate better selection of treatments (e.g. NAC, Surgery) in patients with oesophageal or gastric cancer. It may also be possible to develop new treatments to reduce the effects of neoadjuvant cancer treatment on physical fitness. These results will contribute to the design of a large, multi-centre trial to determine whether an in-hospital exercise-training programme that increases physical fitness leads to improved overall survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01325883 - 29(th) March 2011.

Safety and efficacy of the predictive low glucose management system in the prevention of hypoglycaemia: protocol for randomised controlled home trial to evaluate the Suspend before low function.

INTRODUCTION: Innovations with sensor-augmented pump therapy (SAPT) to reduce hypoglycaemia in patients with type 1 diabetes are an ongoing area of research. The predictive low glucose management (PLGM) system incorporates continuous glucose sensor data into an algorithm and suspends basal insulin before the occurrence of hypoglycaemia. The system was evaluated in in-clinic studies, and has informed the parameters of a larger home trial to study its efficacy and safety in real life. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The aim of this report is to describe the study design and outcome measures for the trial. This is a 6-month, multicentre, randomised controlled home trial to test the PLGM system in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes. The system is available in the Medtronic MiniMed 640G pump as the 'Suspend before low' feature. Following a run-in period, participants are randomised to either the control arm with SAPT alone or the intervention arm with SAPT and Suspend before low. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the time spent hypoglycaemic (sensor glucose <3.5 mmol/L) with and without the system. The secondary aims are to determine the number of hypoglycaemic events, the time spent hyperglycaemic, and to evaluate safety with ketosis and changes in glycated haemoglobin. The study also aims to assess the changes in counter-regulatory hormone responses to hypoglycaemia evaluated by a hyperinsulinaemic hypoglycaemic clamp in a subgroup of patients with impaired awareness. Validated questionnaires are used to measure the fear of hypoglycaemia and the impact on the quality of life to assess burden of the disease. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics committee permissions were gained from respective Institutional Review boards. The findings of the study will provide high quality evidence of the ability of the system in the prevention of hypoglycaemia in real life. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12614000510640, Pre-results.

Mild cold effects on hunger, food intake, satiety and skin temperature in humans.

BACKGROUND: Mild cold exposure increases energy expenditure and can influence energy balance, but at the same time it does not increase appetite and energy intake. OBJECTIVE: To quantify dermal insulative cold response, we assessed thermal comfort and skin temperatures changes by infrared thermography. METHODS: We exposed healthy volunteers to either a single episode of environmental mild cold or thermoneutrality. We measured hunger sensation and actual free food intake. After a thermoneutral overnight stay, five males and five females were exposed to either 18°C (mild cold) or 24°C (thermoneutrality) for 2.5 h. Metabolic rate, vital signs, skin temperature, blood biochemistry, cold and hunger scores were measured at baseline and for every 30 min during the temperature intervention. This was followed by an ad libitum meal to obtain the actual desired energy intake after cold exposure. RESULTS: We could replicate the cold-induced increase in REE. But no differences were detected in hunger, food intake, or satiety after mild cold exposure compared with thermoneutrality. After long-term cold exposure, high cold sensation scores were reported, which were negatively correlated with thermogenesis. Skin temperature in the sternal area was tightly correlated with the increase in energy expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: It is concluded that short-term mild cold exposure increases energy expenditure without changes in food intake. Mild cold exposure resulted in significant thermal discomfort, which was negatively correlated with the increase in energy expenditure. Moreover, there is a great between-subject variability in cold response. These data provide further insights on cold exposure as an anti-obesity measure.