Non-psychotic Outcomes in Young People at Ultra-High Risk of Developing a Psychotic Disorder: A Long-Term Follow-up Study.

BACKGROUND: The majority of individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to a full threshold psychotic disorder. It is therefore important to understand their longer-term clinical and functional outcomes, particularly given the high prevalence of comorbid mental disorders in this population at baseline. AIMS: This study investigated the prevalence of non-psychotic disorders in the UHR population at entry and long-term follow-up and their association with functional outcomes. Persistence of UHR status was also investigated. STUDY DESIGN: The sample comprised 102 UHR young people from the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) Clinic who had not transitioned to psychosis by long-term follow-up (mean = 8.8 years, range = 6.8-12.1 years since baseline). RESULTS: Eighty-eight percent of participants at baseline were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder, the majority of which were mood disorders (78%), anxiety disorders (35%), and substance use disorders (SUDs) (18%). This pattern of disorder prevalence continued at follow-up, though prevalence was reduced, with 52% not meeting criteria for current non-psychotic mental disorder. However, 35% of participants developed a new non-psychotic mental disorder by follow-up. Presence of a continuous non-psychotic mental disorder was associated with poorer functional outcomes at follow-up. 28% of participants still met UHR criteria at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The study adds to the evidence base that a substantial proportion of UHR individuals who do not transition to psychosis experience persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms and persistent and incident non-psychotic disorders over the long term. Long-term treatment and re-entry into services is indicated.

Proteomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Multi-cohort Model Development Study.

Psychosis risk prediction is one of the leading challenges in psychiatry. Previous investigations have suggested that plasma proteomic data may be useful in accurately predicting transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). We hypothesized that an a priori-specified proteomic prediction model would have strong predictive accuracy for psychosis risk and aimed to replicate longitudinal associations between plasma proteins and transition to psychosis. This study used plasma samples from participants in 3 CHR cohorts: the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, and the NEURAPRO randomized control trial (total n = 754). Plasma proteomic data were quantified using mass spectrometry. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis over the study follow-up period. Logistic regression models were internally validated, and optimism-corrected performance metrics derived with a bootstrap procedure. In the overall sample of CHR participants (age: 18.5, SD: 3.9; 51.9% male), 20.4% (n = 154) developed psychosis within 4.4 years. The a priori-specified model showed poor risk-prediction accuracy for the development of psychosis (C-statistic: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.50, 0.59], calibration slope: 0.45). At a group level, Complement C8B, C4B, C5, and leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1) were associated with transition to psychosis but did not surpass correction for multiple comparisons. This study did not confirm the findings from a previous proteomic prediction model of transition from CHR to psychosis. Certain complement proteins may be weakly associated with transition at a group level. Previous findings, derived from small samples, should be interpreted with caution.

Transdiagnostic risk identification: A validation study of the Clinical High At Risk Mental State (CHARMS) criteria.

A set of clinical criteria, the Clinical High At-Risk Mental State (CHARMS) criteria, have been developed to identify symptomatic young people who are at-risk of disorder progression. The current study aimed to validate the CHARMS criteria by testing whether they prospectively identify individuals at-risk of progressing from attenuated symptomatology to a first episode of serious mental disorder, namely first episode psychosis, first episode mania, severe major depression, and borderline personality disorder. 121 young people completed clinical evaluations at baseline, 6- and 12-month follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess transition rates. Cox regression and LASSO were used to examine baseline clinical predictors of transition. Linear mixed effects modelling was used to examine symptom severity. 28 % of CHARMS+ individuals transitioned to a Stage 2 disorder by 12-month follow-up. The CHARMS+ group had more severe symptoms at follow-up than the CHARMS- group. 96 % of Stage 2 transitions were initially to severe depression. Meeting criteria for multiple CHARMS subgroups was associated with higher transition risk: meeting one at-risk group = 24 %; meeting two at-risk groups = 17 %, meeting three at-risk groups = 55 %, meeting four at-risk groups = 50 %. The strongest baseline predictor of transition was severity of depressive symptoms. The CHARMS criteria identified a group of individuals at-risk of imminent onset of severe mental disorder, particularly severe depression. Larger scale studies and longer follow-up periods are required to validate and extend these findings.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS.

AIM: To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS). METHODS: The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences. RESULTS: Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and modest harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS. CONCLUSIONS: Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

The Study of Ketamine for Youth Depression (SKY-D): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial of low-dose ketamine for young people with major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Existing treatments for young people with severe depression have limited effectiveness. The aim of the Study of Ketamine for Youth Depression (SKY-D) trial is to determine whether a 4-week course of low-dose subcutaneous ketamine is an effective adjunct to treatment-as-usual in young people with major depressive disorder (MDD). METHODS: SKY-D is a double-masked, randomised controlled trial funded by the Australian Government's National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). Participants aged between 16 and 25 years (inclusive) with moderate-to-severe MDD will be randomised to receive either low-dose ketamine (intervention) or midazolam (active control) via subcutaneous injection once per week for 4 weeks. The primary outcome is change in depressive symptoms on the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) after 4 weeks of treatment. Further follow-up assessment will occur at 8 and 26 weeks from treatment commencement to determine whether treatment effects are sustained and to investigate safety outcomes. DISCUSSION: Results from this trial will be important in determining whether low-dose subcutaneous ketamine is an effective treatment for young people with moderate-to-severe MDD. This will be the largest randomised trial to investigate the effects of ketamine to treat depression in young people. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ID: ACTRN12619000683134. Registered on May 7, 2019. https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=377513 .

Childhood trauma is prevalent and associated with co-occurring depression, anxiety, mania and psychosis in young people attending Australian youth mental health services.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood trauma is common and associated with mental ill health. While high rates of trauma are observed across individual disorders, there is evidence that trauma is associated with an admixture of affective, anxiety and psychotic symptoms in adults. Given that early onset of mental disorder and trauma exposure herald poor outcomes, it is important to examine trauma prevalence rates in youth mental health services and to determine whether this trauma-related clustering is present in help-seeking young people. METHODS: We used data from the Transitions Study, a longitudinal investigation of young people attending headspace youth mental health services in Australia between January 2011 and August 2012. Participants were 775 young people aged 12-25. Childhood trauma was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Multinomial regression was used to assess whether reported childhood trauma was more strongly associated with the co-occurrence of depression, anxiety, mania and psychosis symptoms than with any one in isolation. RESULTS: Approximately 84% of participants reported some form of abuse (emotional: 68%; physical: 32%; sexual: 22%) or neglect (emotional: 65%; physical: 46%). Exposure to multiple trauma types was common. Childhood trauma was significantly associated with each symptom domain. More severe childhood trauma was more strongly associated with the co-occurrence of symptoms than with any one symptom domain in isolation, such that more severely trauma-exposed young people were more likely to experience increased symptom clustering. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood trauma is pervasive in youth mental health services and associated with a symptom profile that cuts across traditional diagnostic boundaries.

The Australian Early Psychosis Collaborative Consortium (AEPCC): Improving Clinical Care in Early Psychosis.

OBJECTIVES: The field of early psychosis has undergone considerable expansion over the last few decades and has a strong evidence base of effectiveness. Like all areas of healthcare, however, early psychosis services need to more consistently deliver higher quality care to achieve better outcomes for patients and families. A national clinical research infrastructure is urgently required to enable the sector to deliver the highest quality care and expand and translate evidence more quickly and efficiently. This paper describes the establishment of the Australian Early Psychosis Collaborative Consortium (AEPCC) that aims to achieve this. CONCLUSION: AEPCC is the first of its kind in Australia (and internationally). It will deliver the required clinical research infrastructure through the implementation of a clinical quality registry, clinical trials and translation network, and lived experience network. AEPCC will provide a critical resource to better understand the state of early psychosis care, and trial new interventions on a scale that has not previously been possible in Australia.

Serum immune markers and transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk.

Individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis have been found to have altered cytokine levels, but whether these changes are related to clinical outcomes remains unclear. We addressed this issue by measuring serum levels of 20 immune markers in 325 participants (n = 269 CHR, n = 56 healthy controls) using multiplex immunoassays, and then followed up the CHR sample to determine their clinical outcomes. Among 269 CHR individuals, 50 (18.6 %) developed psychosis by two years. Univariate and machine learning techniques were used to compare levels of inflammatory markers in CHR subjects and healthy controls, and in CHR subjects who had (CHR-t), or had not (CHR-nt) transitioned to psychosis. An ANCOVA identified significant group differences (CHR-t, CHR-nt and controls) and post-hoc tests indicated that VEGF levels and the IL-10/IL-6 ratio were significantly higher in CHR-t than CHR-nt, after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Using a penalised logistic regression classifier, CHR participants were distinguished from controls with an area-under the curve (AUC) of 0.82, with IL-6 and IL-4 levels the most important discriminating features. Transition to psychosis was predicted with an AUC of 0.57, with higher VEGF level and IL-10/IL-6 ratio the most important discriminating features. These data suggest that alterations in the levels of peripheral immune markers are associated with the subsequent onset of psychosis. The association with increased VEGF levels could reflect altered blood-brain-barrier (BBB) permeability, while the link with an elevated IL-10/IL-6 ratio points to an imbalance between anti- and pro-inflammatory cytokines.

The association between stressful experiences and OCD symptoms in young adults at transdiagnostic risk.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether there is a specific association between stressful experiences and obsessive-compulsive symptoms or whether this relationship is due to stressful experiences increasing risk for psychopathology generally. AIMS: The current study examined the association between stressful experiences and obsessive-compulsive symptom dimensions, while adjusting for coexisting psychiatric symptoms and psychological distress in a young adult transdiagnostic at-risk sample. METHODS: Forty-three participants completed self-report measures assessing obsessive-compulsive symptoms, stressful experiences, and a range of other psychiatric symptoms. Regression models examined the relationship between stressful experiences and different obsessive-compulsive symptoms dimensions (i.e., symmetry, fear of harm, contamination, and unacceptable thoughts), adjusting for the influence of coexisting psychiatric symptoms and psychological distress. RESULTS: The results showed that there was an association between stressful experiences and obsessive-compulsive symptoms dimension of symmetry. Symptoms of borderline personality disorder were positively associated with the obsessive-compulsive symptom dimensions of symmetry and fear of harm symptoms. Symptoms of psychosis were found to be negatively associated with the obsessive-compulsive symptoms dimension of fear of harm. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have implications for understanding the psychological mechanisms that underlie symmetry symptoms and highlight the need to study OCS dimensions separately to inform more precise, mechanism-targeted interventions.

The Relationship Between Grey Matter Volume and Clinical and Functional Outcomes in People at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

Objective: To examine the association between baseline alterations in grey matter volume (GMV) and clinical and functional outcomes in people at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. Methods: 265 CHR individuals and 92 healthy controls were recruited as part of a prospective multi-center study. After a baseline assessment using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), participants were followed for at least two years to determine clinical and functional outcomes, including transition to psychosis (according to the Comprehensive Assessment of an At Risk Mental State, CAARMS), level of functioning (according to the Global Assessment of Functioning), and symptomatic remission (according to the CAARMS). GMV was measured in selected cortical and subcortical regions of interest (ROI) based on previous studies (ie orbitofrontal gyrus, cingulate gyrus, gyrus rectus, inferior temporal gyrus, parahippocampal gyrus, striatum, and hippocampus). Using voxel-based morphometry, we analysed the relationship between GMV and clinical and functional outcomes. Results: Within the CHR sample, a poor functional outcome (GAF < 65) was associated with relatively lower GMV in the right striatum at baseline (P < .047 after Family Wise Error correction). There were no significant associations between baseline GMV and either subsequent remission or transition to psychosis. Conclusions: In CHR individuals, lower striatal GMV was associated with a poor level of overall functioning at follow-up. This finding was not related to effects of antipsychotic or antidepressant medication. The failure to replicate previous associations between GMV and later psychosis onset, despite studying a relatively large sample, is consistent with the findings of recent large-scale multi-center studies.

My child's future mental health: Carer's engagement with risk identification in an intervention study for youth with at-risk mental states.

AIM: Prevention and early intervention efforts of serious mental illnesses has yielded promising results. However, alongside benefits, several ethical concerns have been raised, including the effects of being identified as being at-risk. In these debates, the voice of parents or carers is conspicuously absent. This is especially concerning as several at-risk interventions are trialled in under-age youth where parents consent on behalf of young people. Therefore, this study aimed to understand carer's experiences of their teenager being identified as at risk for psychosis. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven carers who had provided consent for their teenager to participate in a stepped intervention study for youth at-risk for psychosis. Questions explored their experiences regarding having their teenager being identified as at-risk. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: We identified five main themes from seven female carers' experiences of risk identification including: (a) recall of risk information was limited, or variable, (b) goal of risk disclosure was perceived to be positive, (c) negative emotions were associated with knowledge of risk, (d) relief from uncertainty and helplessness and (e) effects of risk disclosure were mediated by individual circumstance. CONCLUSION: Overall, the results demonstrate that carers' experience of risk disclosure varied with factors surrounding their individual circumstances, and the process of disclosure. Whilst participants acknowledged potential adverse effects associated with risk disclosure, many still adopted a positive outlook. Tailoring safe and effective disclosure of risk to suit the needs of youth and carers could outweigh the potential risks.

Characterization and prediction of clinical pathways of vulnerability to psychosis through graph signal processing.

Causal interactions between specific psychiatric symptoms could contribute to the heterogenous clinical trajectories observed in early psychopathology. Current diagnostic approaches merge clinical manifestations that co-occur across subjects and could significantly hinder our understanding of clinical pathways connecting individual symptoms. Network analysis techniques have emerged as alternative approaches that could help shed light on the complex dynamics of early psychopathology. The present study attempts to address the two main limitations that have in our opinion hindered the application of network approaches in the clinical setting. Firstly, we show that a multi-layer network analysis approach, can move beyond a static view of psychopathology, by providing an intuitive characterization of the role of specific symptoms in contributing to clinical trajectories over time. Secondly, we show that a Graph-Signal-Processing approach, can exploit knowledge of longitudinal interactions between symptoms, to predict clinical trajectories at the level of the individual. We test our approaches in two independent samples of individuals with genetic and clinical vulnerability for developing psychosis. Novel network approaches can allow to embrace the dynamic complexity of early psychopathology and help pave the way towards a more a personalized approach to clinical care.

The endocannabinoidome in neuropsychiatry: Opportunities and potential risks.

The endocannabinoid system (ECS) comprises two cognate endocannabinoid receptors referred to as CB1R and CB2R. ECS dysregulation is apparent in neurodegenerative/neuro-psychiatric disorders including but not limited to schizophrenia, major depressive disorder and potentially bipolar disorder. The aim of this paper is to review mechanisms whereby both receptors may interact with neuro-immune and neuro-oxidative pathways, which play a pathophysiological role in these disorders. CB1R is located in the presynaptic terminals of GABAergic, glutamatergic, cholinergic, noradrenergic and serotonergic neurons where it regulates the retrograde suppression of neurotransmission. CB1R plays a key role in long-term depression, and, to a lesser extent, long-term potentiation, thereby modulating synaptic transmission and mediating learning and memory. Optimal CB1R activity plays an essential neuroprotective role by providing a defense against the development of glutamate-mediated excitotoxicity, which is achieved, at least in part, by impeding AMPA-mediated increase in intracellular calcium overload and oxidative stress. Moreover, CB1R activity enables optimal neuron-glial communication and the function of the neurovascular unit. CB2R receptors are detected in peripheral immune cells and also in central nervous system regions including the striatum, basal ganglia, frontal cortex, hippocampus, amygdala as well as the ventral tegmental area. CB2R upregulation inhibits the presynaptic release of glutamate in several brain regions. CB2R activation also decreases neuroinflammation partly by mediating the transition from a predominantly neurotoxic "M1" microglial phenotype to a more neuroprotective "M2" phenotype. CB1R and CB2R are thus novel drug targets for the treatment of neuro-immune and neuro-oxidative disorders including schizophrenia and affective disorders.

Prediction of clinical outcomes beyond psychosis in the ultra-high risk for psychosis population.

AIM: Several prediction models have been introduced to identify young people at greatest risk of transitioning to psychosis. To date, none has examined the possibility of developing a clinical prediction model of outcomes other than transition. The aims of this study were to examine the association between baseline clinical predictors and outcomes including, but not limited to, transition to psychosis in young people at risk for psychosis, and to develop a prediction model for these outcomes. METHODS: Several evidence-based variables previously associated with transition to psychosis and some important clinical comorbidities experienced by ultra-high risk (UHR) individuals were identified in 202 UHR individuals. Secondary analysis of the Neurapro clinical trial were conducted to investigate the associations between these variables and favourable (remission and recovery) or unfavourable (transition to psychosis, no remission, any recurrence and relapse) clinical outcomes. Logistic regression, best subset selection, Akaike Information Criterion and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to seek the best prediction model for clinical outcomes from all combinations of possible predictors. RESULTS: When considered individually, only higher general psychopathology levels (P = .023) was associated with the unfavourable outcomes. Prediction models suggest that general psychopathology and functioning are predictive of unfavourable outcomes. CONCLUSION: The predictive performance of the resulting models was modest and further research is needed. Nonetheless, when designing early intervention centres aiming to support individuals in the early phases of a mental disorder, the proper assessment of general psychopathology and functioning should be considered in order to inform interventions and length of care provided.

Clinical, cognitive and neuroanatomical associations of serum NMDAR autoantibodies in people at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Serum neuronal autoantibodies, such as those to the NMDA receptor (NMDAR), are detectable in a subgroup of patients with psychotic disorders. It is not known if they are present before the onset of psychosis or whether they are associated with particular clinical features or outcomes. In a case-control study, sera from 254 subjects at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and 116 healthy volunteers were tested for antibodies against multiple neuronal antigens implicated in CNS autoimmune disorders, using fixed and live cell-based assays (CBAs). Within the CHR group, the relationship between NMDAR antibodies and symptoms, cognitive function and clinical outcomes over 24 month follow-up was examined. CHR subjects were not more frequently seropositive for neuronal autoantibodies than controls (8.3% vs. 5.2%; OR = 1.50; 95% CI: 0.58-3.90). The NMDAR was the most common target antigen and NMDAR IgGs were more sensitively detected with live versus fixed CBAs (p < 0.001). Preliminary phenotypic analyses revealed that within the CHR sample, the NMDAR antibody seropositive subjects had higher levels of current depression, performed worse on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Task (p < 0.05), and had a markedly lower IQ (p < 0.01). NMDAR IgGs were not more frequent in subjects who later became psychotic than those who did not. NMDAR antibody serostatus and titre was associated with poorer levels of functioning at follow-up (p < 0.05) and the presence of a neuronal autoantibody was associated with larger amygdala volumes (p < 0.05). Altogether, these findings demonstrate that NMDAR autoantibodies are detectable in a subgroup of CHR subjects at equal rates to controls. In the CHR group, they are associated with affective psychopathology, impairments in verbal memory, and overall cognitive function: these findings are qualitatively and individually similar to core features of autoimmune encephalitis and/or animal models of NMDAR antibody-mediated CNS disease. Overall the current work supports further evaluation of NMDAR autoantibodies as a possible prognostic biomarker and aetiological factor in a subset of people already meeting CHR criteria.

Favorable effects of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in attentional control and conversion rate to psychosis in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

Omega-3-polyunsaturated-fatty-acids were suggested against cognitive dysfunctions and conversion to psychosis. However, a recent multicenter trial found no effect in reducing conversion rates in individuals at risk of developing schizophrenia. Patients' genetic heterogeneity and the timing of treatment might influence omega-3 efficacy. Here, we addressed the impact of omega-3 early treatment in both mice and human subjects with a 22q11.2 genetic hemi-deletion (22q11DS), characterized by cognitive dysfunctions and high penetrance of schizophrenia. We first tested the behavioural and cognitive consequences of adolescent exposure to normal or omega-3-enriched diets in wild-type and 22q11DS (LgDel/+) mice. We then contrasted mouse data with those gathered from sixty-two patients with 22q11DS exposed to a normal diet or supplemented with omega-3 during pre-adolescence/adolescence. Adolescent omega-3 exposure had no effects in wild-type mice. However, this treatment ameliorated distractibility deficits revealed in LgDel/+ mice by the Five Choice Serial Reaction Time Task (5CSRTT). The omega-3 improvement in LgDel/+ mice was selective, as no other generalized cognitive and non-cognitive effects were evident. Similarly, omega-3-exposed 22q11DS patients showed long-lasting improvements on distractibility as revealed by the continuous performance test (CPT). Moreover, omega-3-exposed 22q11DS patients showed less risk of developing an Ultra High Risk status and lower conversion rate to psychosis. Our convergent mouse-human findings represent a first analysis on the effects of omega-3 early treatment in 22q11DS. The beneficial effects in attentional control and transition to psychosis could support the early use of omega-3 supplementation in the 22q11DS population.

Harmonised collection of data in youth mental health: Towards large datasets.

OBJECTIVE: The current international trend is to create large datasets with existing data and/or deposit newly collected data into repositories accessible to the scientific community. These practices lead to more efficient data sharing, better detection of small effects, modelling of confounders, establishment of sample generalizability and identification of differences between any given disorders. In Australia, to facilitate such data-sharing and collaborative opportunities, the Neurobiology in Youth Mental Health Partnership was created. This initiative brings together specialised researchers from around Australia to work towards a better understanding of the cross-diagnostic neurobiology of youth mental health and the translation of this knowledge into clinical practice. One of the mandates of the partnership was to develop a protocol for harmonised prospective collection of data across research centres in the field of youth mental health in order to create large datasets. METHODS: Four key research modalities were identified: clinical assessments, brain imaging, neurocognitive assessment and collection of blood samples. This paper presents the consensus set of assessments/data collection that has been selected by experts in each domain. CONCLUSION: The use of this core set of data will facilitate the pooling of psychopathological and neurobiological data into large datasets allowing researchers to tackle important questions requiring very large numbers. The aspiration of this transdiagnostic approach is a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying mental illnesses.

Can youth at high risk of illness progression be identified by measures of rumination and sleep-wake disturbance.

AIM: Clinical staging models offer a useful framework for understanding illness trajectories, where individuals are located on a continuum of illness progression from stage 0 (at-risk but asymptomatic) to stage 4 (end-stage disease). Importantly, clinical staging allows investigation of risk factors for illness progression with the potential to target trans-diagnostic mechanisms at an early stage, especially in help-seeking youth who often present with sub-threshold syndromes. While depressive symptoms, rumination and sleep-wake disturbances may worsen syndrome outcomes, the role of these related phenomena has yet to be examined as risk factors for trans-diagnostic illness progression in at-risk youth. METHODS: This study is a prospective follow-up of 248 individuals aged 12 to 25 years presenting to headspace services with sub-threshold syndromes (stage 1) classified under the clinical staging model to determine transition to threshold syndromes (stage 2). Factor analysis of depression, rumination and sleep-wake patterns was used to identify key dimensions and any associations between factors and transition to stage 2 at follow-up. RESULTS: At 1 year, 9% of cases met criteria for stage 2 (n = 22). One of three identified factors, namely the factor reflecting the commonalities shared between rumination and sleep-wake disturbance, significantly differentiated cases that transitioned to stage 2 vs those that did not demonstrate transition. Items loading onto this factor, labelled Anergia, included depression severity and aspects of rumination and sleep-wake disturbance that were characterized as introceptive. CONCLUSIONS: Common dimensions between rumination and sleep-wake disturbance present a detectable trans-diagnostic marker of illness progression in youth, and may represent a target for early intervention.