A stakeholder analysis to prepare for real-world evaluation of integrating artificial intelligent algorithms into breast screening (PREP-AIR study): a qualitative study using the WHO guide.

BACKGROUND: The national breast screening programme in the United Kingdom is under pressure due to workforce shortages and having been paused during the COVID-19 pandemic. Artificial intelligence has the potential to transform how healthcare is delivered by improving care processes and patient outcomes. Research on the clinical and organisational benefits of artificial intelligence is still at an early stage, and numerous concerns have been raised around its implications, including patient safety, acceptance, and accountability for decisions. Reforming the breast screening programme to include artificial intelligence is a complex endeavour because numerous stakeholders influence it. Therefore, a stakeholder analysis was conducted to identify relevant stakeholders, explore their views on the proposed reform (i.e., integrating artificial intelligence algorithms into the Scottish National Breast Screening Service for breast cancer detection) and develop strategies for managing 'important' stakeholders. METHODS: A qualitative study (i.e., focus groups and interviews, March-November 2021) was conducted using the stakeholder analysis guide provided by the World Health Organisation and involving three Scottish health boards: NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, NHS Grampian and NHS Lothian. The objectives included: (A) Identify possible stakeholders (B) Explore stakeholders' perspectives and describe their characteristics (C) Prioritise stakeholders in terms of importance and (D) Develop strategies to manage 'important' stakeholders. Seven stakeholder characteristics were assessed: their knowledge of the targeted reform, position, interest, alliances, resources, power and leadership. RESULTS: Thirty-two participants took part from 14 (out of 17 identified) sub-groups of stakeholders. While they were generally supportive of using artificial intelligence in breast screening programmes, some concerns were raised. Stakeholder knowledge, influence and interests in the reform varied. Key advantages mentioned include service efficiency, quicker results and reduced work pressure. Disadvantages included overdiagnosis or misdiagnosis of cancer, inequalities in detection and the self-learning capacity of the algorithms. Five strategies (with considerations suggested by stakeholders) were developed to maintain and improve the support of 'important' stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Health services worldwide face similar challenges of workforce issues to provide patient care. The findings of this study will help others to learn from Scottish experiences and provide guidance to conduct similar studies targeting healthcare reform. STUDY REGISTRATION: researchregistry6579, date of registration: 16/02/2021.

Autoimmune conditions and gastric cancer risk in a population-based study in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Although overall incidence of gastric cancer is decreasing, incidence has been increasing among young people in some Western countries. This trend may stem from the increase in autoimmune conditions. METHODS: A nested case-control study of gastric cancer in UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Up to ten cancer-free controls were matched to cases by age and sex. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between analyzable autoimmune conditions (n = 34) and gastric cancer with Bonferroni correction. We evaluated associations between pernicious anaemia and other conditions. A meta-analysis of published prospective studies and ours was conducted. RESULTS: Among 6586 cases (1156 cardia, 1104 non-cardia, and 4334 overlapping/unspecified tumours) and 65,687 controls, any autoimmune condition was associated with gastric cancer (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01-1.20). Individuals with pernicious anaemia had higher gastric cancer risk than those without (OR = 2.75; 2.19-3.44). Among controls, pernicious anaemia was associated with seven other conditions (OR range: 2.21-29.80). The pooled estimate for any autoimmune condition and gastric cancer was 1.17 (1.14-1.21; n = 47,126 cases). CONCLUSION: Autoimmunity increases gastric cancer risk. Some autoimmune conditions may be indirectly associated with gastric cancer via pernicious anaemia. Pernicious anaemia could be considered for gastric cancer risk stratification and screening.

Service and clinical impacts of reader bias in breast cancer screening: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine factors influencing reader agreement in breast screening and investigate the relationship between agreement level and patient outcomes. METHODS: Reader pair agreement for 83 265 sets of mammograms from the Scottish Breast Screening service (2015-2020) was evaluated using Cohen's kappa statistic. Each mammography examination was read by two readers, per routine screening practice, with the second initially blinded but able to choose to view the first reader's opinion. If the two readers disagreed, a third reader arbitrated. Variation in reader agreement was examined by: whether the reader acted as the first or second reader, reader experience, and recall, cancer detection and arbitration recall rate. RESULTS: Readers' opinions varied by whether they acted as the first or second reader. Furthermore, reader 2 was more likely to agree with reader 1 if reader 1 was more experienced than they were, and less likely to agree if they themselves were more experienced than reader 1 (P < .001). Agreement was not significantly associated with cancer detection rate, overall recall rate or arbitration recall rates (P > .05). Lower agreement between readers led to a higher arbiter workload (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In mammography screening, the second reader's opinion is influenced by the first reader's opinion, with the degree of influence dependent on the readers' relative experience levels. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: While less-experienced readers relied on their more experienced reading partner, no adverse impact on service outcomes was observed. Allowing access to the first reader's opinion may benefit newly qualified readers, but reduces independent evaluation, which may lower cancer detection rates.

The aetiology and burden of myeloproliferative neoplasms in the United Kingdom: the MyelOproliferative neoplasmS: an In-depth case-control (MOSAICC) study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are a group of haematological malignancies that affect approximately 8 people in every 100,000 individuals in the UK. Little is known about the aetiology of MPNs, as previous studies have been hampered by small sample sizes, thus it is important to understand the cause of MPNs in a larger study to identify prevention strategies and improve treatment strategies. This study aims to determine environmental, lifestyle, genetic and medical causes of MPNs and to assess the relevance of occupational carcinogen exposures and quality of life impacts. METHODS: A UK-wide case-control study of 610 recently diagnosed MPN patients (within 24 months) receiving clinical care at 21 NHS study sites in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 610 non-blood relative/friend controls is underway. Data on occupational and residential history, medical and environmental factors, and quality of life are being collected from the participants via a structured interview and self-complete questionnaires. Clinical data is being provided by the clinical team. Blood, saliva and toenail samples are also being collected for genetic and elemental analysis. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) will be calculated using a p < 0.05 to investigate potential risk factors for the MPN clinical and genetic subtypes, and further analyses will be conducted based on the type of data and outcome of interest at a later stage. DISCUSSION: The study design is most effective for investigating the aetiology of rare diseases. The study will enable identification of potential causes of MPNs through in-depth assessment of potential risk factors with potential for longer follow-up of a number of outcomes.

The JAK2V617F mutation and the role of therapeutic agents in alleviating myeloproliferative neoplasm symptom burden.

Alleviating symptom burden in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) is imperative to achieving optimal management. Research remains to elucidate the relationship between the JAK2V617F (Janus kinase 2) mutation present in many MPN patients, and the symptomatology they experience. This retrospective study analysed data collected from MPN patients included in the Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: An In-depth Case-Control (MOSAICC) pilot study. The MPN Symptom Assessment Form was administered, and median symptom scores were compared between JAK2V617F-positive and JAK2V617F-negative groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for confounding variables. Overall, 106 MPN patients participated: 65.1% were JAK2V617F positive, 30.2% were JAK2V617F negative and 4.7% had an unknown status. Multivariate analysis revealed a low symptom burden for early satiety (p < 0.01), dizziness (p < 0.05), cough (p < 0.05) and bone pain (p < 0.01) in those receiving venesection alone. Interferon alpha was significantly associated (p < 0.05) with severe burden for 16 of the 27 symptoms. JAK2V617F-positive females experienced a greater symptom burden than JAK2V617F-positive males. There was no discernible relationship between the JAK2V617F mutation and symptom burden in MPN patients, unlike the therapeutic agents investigated. Larger studies are required to validate these results and identify mechanisms of symptom development and control in MPN patients.

The impact of rurality on patient experience and diagnostic pathway intervals in Scotland's cancer patients: Further results from a national cancer diagnosis audit.

BACKGROUND: In Scotland 17 % of the population reside rurally and previous research has demonstrated worse cancer outcomes in this group. The underlying reason for this is unclear. This study aims to determine whether patient presenting factors, GP consultation factors or the diagnostic pathways differ between urban and rural patients within Scotland. METHODS: This study combined two Scottish National Cancer Diagnosis Audits. Participating GPs collected data on the diagnostic pathway from primary to secondary care for cancer patients diagnosed during the audit period. Using the Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification, patients were designated as rural or urban dwellers and compared in descriptive analyses. Key cancer intervals (primary, diagnostic, secondary and treatment interval) were compared between urban and rural dwellers with an additional adjusted analysis for the main cancer sites. RESULTS: A total of 4309 cancer diagnoses were included in the study; 22 % were in patients from rural locations. Rural patients had significantly more consultations and investigations prior to referral than their urban counterparts. There was no difference in prolonged cancer pathways between the two groups except in lung cancer patients where rural patients had a significantly increased odds of a diagnostic interval of >90 days. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest differences in the interaction between patients and GPs prior to referral in urban and rural settings. However, this does not appear to lead to prolonged patient pathways, except in lung cancer. Further research is needed to determine whether this delay is clinically significant and contributing to poorer outcomes in Scottish rural dwellers with lung cancer.

Impact of Different Mammography Systems on Artificial Intelligence Performance in Breast Cancer Screening.

Artificial intelligence (AI) tools may assist breast screening mammography programs, but limited evidence supports their generalizability to new settings. This retrospective study used a 3-year dataset (April 1, 2016-March 31, 2019) from a U.K. regional screening program. The performance of a commercially available breast screening AI algorithm was assessed with a prespecified and site-specific decision threshold to evaluate whether its performance was transferable to a new clinical site. The dataset consisted of women (aged approximately 50-70 years) who attended routine screening, excluding self-referrals, those with complex physical requirements, those who had undergone a previous mastectomy, and those who underwent screening that had technical recalls or did not have the four standard image views. In total, 55 916 screening attendees (mean age, 60 years ± 6 [SD]) met the inclusion criteria. The prespecified threshold resulted in high recall rates (48.3%, 21 929 of 45 444), which reduced to 13.0% (5896 of 45 444) following threshold calibration, closer to the observed service level (5.0%, 2774 of 55 916). Recall rates also increased approximately threefold following a software upgrade on the mammography equipment, requiring per-software version thresholds. Using software-specific thresholds, the AI algorithm would have recalled 277 of 303 (91.4%) screen-detected cancers and 47 of 138 (34.1%) interval cancers. AI performance and thresholds should be validated for new clinical settings before deployment, while quality assurance systems should monitor AI performance for consistency. Keywords: Breast, Screening, Mammography, Computer Applications-Detection/Diagnosis, Neoplasms-Primary, Technology Assessment Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2023.

Evaluation of human papillomavirus (HPV) knowledge among healthcare professionals: A study of conference attendees in Angola.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) plays an essential role in cervical cancer development. Angola has a high cervical cancer incidence rate (36.1 per 100,000); therefore, knowledge of HPV among clinicians is essential for the prevention of cervical cancer and educating at-risk individuals. This study aimed to evaluate knowledge of HPV among healthcare professionals in Angola. A 44-item questionnaire was distributed to 65 healthcare professionals who attended a conference on the cancer burden in Angola. Non-parametric and multiple regression analyses were conducted. Of the participants (55.6%) were male, and 33.3% were aged 31-40 years, 56.3% had an undergraduate degree, and 35.9% had a postgraduate degree. All participants worked in healthcare in academic and/or clinical settings, with 36.7% in joint contracts. Most (62.2%) knew that early sexual debut increases the risk of contracting HPV, and HPV vaccines are most effective if administered before sexual debut. However, there was limited knowledge regarding the virus transmission. The mean HPV knowledge score was 11.08 ± 8.76 and knowledge was higher among older healthcare workers (>50 years) with a postgraduate degree and working in a clinical role. Overall, HPV knowledge was limited among the respondents. Policymakers should consider promoting knowledge and targeted public health initiatives among healthcare professionals in Angola.

AI in breast screening mammography: breast screening readers' perspectives.

OBJECTIVES: This study surveyed the views of breast screening readers in the UK on how to incorporate Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology into breast screening mammography. METHODS: An online questionnaire was circulated to the UK breast screening readers. Questions included their degree of approval of four AI implementation scenarios: AI as triage, AI as a companion reader/reader aid, AI replacing one of the initial two readers, and AI replacing all readers. They were also asked to rank five AI representation options (discrete opinion; mammographic scoring; percentage score with 100% indicating malignancy; region of suspicion; heat map) and indicate which evidence they considered necessary to support the implementation of AI into their practice among six options offered. RESULTS: The survey had 87 nationally accredited respondents across the UK; 73 completed the survey in full. Respondents approved of AI replacing one of the initial two human readers and objected to AI replacing all human readers. Participants were divided on AI as triage and AI as a reader companion. A region of suspicion superimposed on the image was the preferred AI representation option. Most screen readers considered national guidelines (77%), studies using a nationally representative dataset (65%) and independent prospective studies (60%) as essential evidence. Participants' free-text comments highlighted concerns and the need for additional validation. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, screen readers supported the introduction of AI as a partial replacement of human readers and preferred a graphical indication of the suspected tumour area, with further evidence and national guidelines considered crucial prior to implementation.

Prioritization of THose aWaiting hip and knee ArthroplastY(PATHWAY): protocol for development of a stakeholder led clinical prioritization tool.

AIMS: The extended wait that most patients are now experiencing for hip and knee arthroplasty has raised questions about whether reliance on waiting time as the primary driver for prioritization is ethical, and if other additional factors should be included in determining surgical priority. Our Prioritization of THose aWaiting hip and knee ArthroplastY (PATHWAY) project will explore which perioperative factors are important to consider when prioritizing those on the waiting list for hip and knee arthroplasty, and how these factors should be weighted. The final product will include a weighted benefit score that can be used to aid in surgical prioritization for those awaiting elective primary hip and knee arthroplasty. METHODS: There will be two linked work packages focusing on opinion from key stakeholders (patients and surgeons). First, an online modified Delphi process to determine a consensus set of factors that should be involved in patient prioritization. This will be performed using standard Delphi methodology consisting of multiple rounds where following initial individual rating there is feedback, discussion, and further recommendations undertaken towards eventual consensus. The second stage will then consist of a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) to allow for priority setting of the factors derived from the Delphi through elicitation of weighted benefit scores. The DCE consists of several choice tasks designed to elicit stakeholder preference regarding included attributes (factors). RESULTS: The study is co-funded by the University of Aberdeen Knowledge Exchange Commission (Ref CF10693-29) and a Chief Scientist Office (CSO) Scotland Clinical Research Fellowship which runs from 08/2021 to 08/2024 (Grant ref: CAF/21/06). Approval from the University of Aberdeen Institute of Applied Health Sciences School Ethics Review Board was granted 22/03/2022 - Reference number SERB/2021/12/2210. CONCLUSION: The PATHWAY project provides the first attempt to use patient and surgeon opinions to develop a unified approach to prioritization for those awaiting hip and knee arthroplasty. Development of such a tool will provide more equitable access to arthroplasty services, as well as providing a framework for developing similar approaches in other areas of healthcare delivery.Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):753-758.

eQTL Set-Based Association Analysis Identifies Novel Susceptibility Loci for Barrett Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Over 20 susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) have been identified for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its precursor, Barrett esophagus (BE), explaining a small portion of heritability. METHODS: Using genetic data from 4,323 BE and 4,116 EAC patients aggregated by international consortia including the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON), we conducted a comprehensive transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) for BE/EAC, leveraging Genotype Tissue Expression (GTEx) gene-expression data from six tissue types of plausible relevance to EAC etiology: mucosa and muscularis from the esophagus, gastroesophageal (GE) junction, stomach, whole blood, and visceral adipose. Two analytical approaches were taken: standard TWAS using the predicted gene expression from local expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), and set-based SKAT association using selected eQTLs that predict the gene expression. RESULTS: Although the standard approach did not identify significant signals, the eQTL set-based approach identified eight novel associations, three of which were validated in independent external data (eQTL SNP sets for EXOC3, ZNF641, and HSP90AA1). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified novel genetic susceptibility loci for EAC and BE using an eQTL set-based genetic association approach. IMPACT: This study expanded the pool of genetic susceptibility loci for EAC and BE, suggesting the potential of the eQTL set-based genetic association approach as an alternative method for TWAS analysis.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Revolutionise the Patient Care Pathway in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty (ARCHERY): Protocol for the Development of a Clinical Prediction Model.

BACKGROUND: Hip and knee osteoarthritis is substantially prevalent worldwide, with large numbers of older adults undergoing joint replacement (arthroplasty) every year. A backlog of elective surgery due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and an aging population, has led to substantial issues with access to timely arthroplasty surgery. A potential method to improve the efficiency of arthroplasty services is by increasing the percentage of patients who are listed for surgery from primary care referrals. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, specifically machine learning, provides a potential unexplored solution to correctly and rapidly select suitable patients for arthroplasty surgery. OBJECTIVE: This study has 2 objectives: (1) develop a cohort of patients with referrals by general practitioners regarding assessment of suitability for hip or knee replacement from National Health Service (NHS) Grampian data via the Grampian Data Safe Haven and (2) determine the demographic, clinical, and imaging characteristics that influence the selection of patients to undergo hip or knee arthroplasty, and develop a tested and validated patient-specific predictive model to guide arthroplasty referral pathways. METHODS: The AI to Revolutionise the Patient Care Pathway in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty (ARCHERY) project will be delivered through 2 linked work packages conducted within the Grampian Data Safe Haven and Safe Haven Artificial Intelligence Platform. The data set will include a cohort of individuals aged ≥16 years with referrals for the consideration of elective primary hip or knee replacement from January 2015 to January 2022. Linked pseudo-anonymized NHS Grampian health care data will be acquired including patient demographics, medication records, laboratory data, theatre records, text from clinical letters, and radiological images and reports. Following the creation of the data set, machine learning techniques will be used to develop pattern classification and probabilistic prediction models based on radiological images. Supplemental demographic and clinical data will be used to improve the predictive capabilities of the models. The sample size is predicted to be approximately 2000 patients-a sufficient size for satisfactory assessment of the primary outcome. Cross-validation will be used for development, testing, and internal validation. Evaluation will be performed through standard techniques, such as the C statistic (area under curve) metric, calibration characteristics (Brier score), and a confusion matrix. RESULTS: The study was funded by the Chief Scientist Office Scotland as part of a Clinical Research Fellowship that runs from August 2021 to August 2024. Approval from the North Node Privacy Advisory Committee was confirmed on October 13, 2021. Data collection started in May 2022, with the results expected to be published in the first quarter of 2024. ISRCTN registration has been completed. CONCLUSIONS: This project provides a first step toward delivering an automated solution for arthroplasty selection using routinely collected health care data. Following appropriate external validation and clinical testing, this project could substantially improve the proportion of referred patients that are selected to undergo surgery, with a subsequent reduction in waiting time for arthroplasty appointments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18398037; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN18398037. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/37092.

Not all small HER2 positive breast cancers have the same clinical outcome in the North-East of Scotland.

HER2-positive breast cancers, representing up to 20% of all breast cancers, are more aggressive and have poorer outcomes. Systemic therapy has been proven to prevent disease recurrence and improve survival. Existing literature provides only limited evidence to support this in smaller HER2-positive tumors. The study aimed to evaluate HER-2 positive breast cancer management and treatment of all T1N0 tumors in the North of Scotland, diagnosed 2012-2019. Clinical-pathological details, comorbidities, treatments and clinical events were retrieved from the Scottish North Cancer Alliance audit database and analyzed using univariate and multivariate analysis including cox-regression and log-rank testing (SPSSv23).Overall, 299 patients (41% screen detected/ 56.9% symptomatic /2.1% other), median age 63 years and median tumor size 13 mm, were included. Most cancers were grade 2/3 (43.1%/ 55.5%). Most patients (59.5%) received treatment with trastuzumab (tT); 40.8% concurrent with chemotherapy and endocrine therapy. 7.7% of patients received neo adjuvant chemotherapy. Median follow-up time was 2.6 years, with recurrence on average occurring 2.9 years after diagnosis. Patients receiving trastuzumab were younger, had a higher grade and larger size tumor. 78.5% of patients in the untreated group (non-tT) were ER positive compared to 65.2% in the treated group (tT). Trastuzumab significantly lowered breast cancer recurrence (Tt=3.4% versus non-Tt=8.3%, p = 0.022 HR= 0.096, 95% CI 0.025-0.361). In conclusion, receiving anti-HER2 treatment significantly improved clinical outcome in this T1N0 patient group. Consideration, at the very least informed discussions with patients, should be undertaken to treat these early stage HER2-positive breast cancers.

A National Network of Safe Havens: Scottish Perspective.

For over a decade, Scotland has implemented and operationalized a system of Safe Havens, which provides secure analytics platforms for researchers to access linked, deidentified electronic health records (EHRs) while managing the risk of unauthorized reidentification. In this paper, a perspective is provided on the state-of-the-art Scottish Safe Haven network, including its evolution, to define the key activities required to scale the Scottish Safe Haven network's capability to facilitate research and health care improvement initiatives. A set of processes related to EHR data and their delivery in Scotland have been discussed. An interview with each Safe Haven was conducted to understand their services in detail, as well as their commonalities. The results show how Safe Havens in Scotland have protected privacy while facilitating the reuse of the EHR data. This study provides a common definition of a Safe Haven and promotes a consistent understanding among the Scottish Safe Haven network and the clinical and academic research community. We conclude by identifying areas where efficiencies across the network can be made to meet the needs of population-level studies at scale.

Supporting someone with cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed methods analysis of cancer carer's health, Quality of Life and need for support.

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected the delivery of cancer care. Due to social restrictions and reductions in health service contact, it is expected that the burdens experienced by informal carers have risen. This study provides an analysis of cancer carer's experiences and needs as a consequence of the pandemic. An online mixed method design was used. The survey included open-ended responses to explore carer's experiences and measures of health status (EQ-5D-5L), Quality of Life (WHOQoL-BREF) and impact of COVID-19. Open-ended responses were analysed thematically according to Miles and Huberman techniques and quantitative data were analysed descriptively. One hundred and ninety-six cancer carers participated in the online survey. Mixed method analysis demonstrated that carers were experiencing major difficulties. Of these n = 142/72.4% experienced challenges related to anxiety and depression; 35.2% rated these problems as slight with 25% rating these as moderate and 11.2% as severe. Qualitative analysis identified significant and sustained negative impacts of the pandemic on psychological health, social isolation, finance and access to health services with carers requiring urgent information and support. Carer's challenges have deepened throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. There is an urgent need to develop innovative ways to provide support for carers to provide palliative and supportive care at home now and during recovery from the pandemic. Due to the need for infection control meaningful development and integration of urgent digital technology might be the most feasible solution.

Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of biliary tract cancers.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a female predominance, whereas the other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance, suggesting that sex hormones may be involved in carcinogenesis. We sought to evaluate the association between menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and the risk of BTC in women. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This nested case-control study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2017 with incident primary cancers of the gallbladder (GBC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), ampulla of Vater (AVC), and mixed type were matched to 5 controls on birth year, diagnosis year, and years in the general practice using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% CIs for associations between MHT use and BTC type. The sample consisted of 1,682 BTC cases (483 GBC, 870 CCA, 105 AVC, and 224 mixed) and 8,419 matched controls with a mean age of 73 (SD, 11) years. Combined formulations (estrogen-progesterone) were associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.08, 3.59). Orally administered MHT was associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.24, 4.17). Estrogen-only formulations (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.93) and cream or suppository administrations (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.95) were associated with decreased CCA risk. The number of prescriptions, dose, duration of use, and time since last use were not associated with GBC or CCA risk. MHT use was not associated with risk of AVC or mixed cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Combination MHT formulations and oral administrations were associated with increased GBC risk, whereas estrogen-only formulations were associated with a lower CCA risk. MHT formulation and administration should be carefully considered when prescribing.

Spatial disparities in the reported incidence and survival of myeloproliferative neoplasms in Australia.

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are an uncommon group of blood cancers that, if untreated, result in an increased risk of haemorrhagic event or thrombosis. Unlike other cancer types, diagnosis of MPNs requires a combination of microscopic, clinical and genetic evidence, which provide unique challenges given the typical notification processes of cancer registries. This, and the relatively recent advances in diagnosis and revision of the World Health Organization diagnostic criteria, may result in under-diagnosis or under-reporting of MPNs. We used population-based cancer registry data from the Australian Cancer Database and modelled the incidence and survival of MPNs between 2007 and 2016 using generalised linear models and Bayesian spatial Leroux models. Substantial evidence was found of spatial heterogeneity in the incidence of MPNs and significant differences in incidence and survival by state or territory. States with lower incidence tended to have poorer survival, suggesting that some less severe cases may not be diagnosed or notified to the registries in those states. Population rates of genetic testing and percentages of records diagnosed using bone marrow biopsies did not explain the differences in incidence by state and territory. It is important to determine the key drivers of these geographical patterns, including the need to standardise diagnosis and reporting of MPNs.

Interpretation and reporting of predictive or diagnostic machine-learning research in Trauma & Orthopaedics.

There is increasing popularity in the use of artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques to provide diagnostic and prognostic models for various aspects of Trauma & Orthopaedic surgery. However, correct interpretation of these models is difficult for those without specific knowledge of computing or health data science methodology. Lack of current reporting standards leads to the potential for significant heterogeneity in the design and quality of published studies. We provide an overview of machine-learning techniques for the lay individual, including key terminology and best practice reporting guidelines. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1754-1758.

Patient's perspectives of living with a precancerous condition: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS).

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate patient experiences of living with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Living with a premalignant condition such as MGUS may elicit negative psychosocial effects including increased anxiety and fear of progression to cancer. To date, no study utilising qualitative methodology has explored the lived experiences of MGUS patients. METHODS: Data was collected via two focus groups and six telephone interviews. MGUS patients (n=14) were recruited via nurse-led haematology telephone-clinics in Northern Ireland. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and the data subjected to thematic analysis. OUTCOME: Thematic analysis identified 3 overarching themes; (1) The psychosocial impact of an MGUS diagnosis, (2) Knowledge of MGUS and (3) Experiences of MGUS health services. Patients with MGUS reported experiencing poor psychological adjustment to their condition particularly at the point of diagnosis and approaching follow-up appointments. Feelings of isolation, poor information-provision, increased uncertainty and limited psychosocial support for MGUS patients were also reported. Patients did however reflect positively on their experience of being followed up via nurse-led telephone clinics. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of patient friendly information guides at diagnosis, and additional psychosocial support services such as nurse-led telephone clinics and coordinated patient groups may help MGUS patients adjust better to their diagnosis and in doing so improve quality of life in this patient population.