Breast Cancer Risk After Bariatric Surgery and Influence of Insulin Levels: A Nonrandomized Controlled Trial.

Importance: Obesity and insulin are risk factors for breast cancer, and retrospective studies suggest bariatric surgery reduces breast cancer risk in women. However, long-term prospective data on breast cancer risk after bariatric surgery and the role of baseline insulin levels are lacking. Objective: To examine if bariatric surgery is associated with breast cancer incidence in women and if treatment benefit is modified by baseline insulin levels. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study was a nonrandomized intervention trial designed to investigate the long-term effects of bariatric surgery on obesity-related mortality and morbidity. Study recruitment took place between 1987 and 2001, and median (IQR) follow-up time was 23.9 years (20.1-27.1) years. The study was conducted at 25 public surgical departments and 480 primary health care centers in Sweden and included 2867 women aged 37 to 60 years and with body mass index 38 or greater (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). Intervention: In the surgery group (n = 1420), 260 women underwent gastric banding, 970 vertical banded gastroplasty, and 190 gastric bypass. The remaining contemporaneously matched control individuals (n = 1447) received usual obesity care. Main Outcome and Measures: Breast cancer, the main outcome of this secondary report, was not a predefined outcome in the SOS study. Breast cancer events were identified in the Swedish National Cancer Registry. Results: The study population comprised 2867 women with a mean (SD) age of 48.0 (6.2) years. During follow-up, there were 154 breast cancer events, 66 in the surgery group and 88 in the usual care group, and a decreased risk of breast cancer was observed in the bariatric surgery group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.49-0.94; P = .019; adjusted HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.01; P = .06). The surgical treatment benefit on breast cancer risk was greater in women with baseline insulin levels above the median 15.8 µIU/L (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31-0.74; P = .001; adjusted HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.35-0.86; P = .008) compared to those below (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.59-1.53; P = .84; adjusted HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.61-1.66; P = .97; interaction P = .02). Conclusions and Relevance: This prospective clinical trial indicated a reduced risk of breast cancer after bariatric surgery in women with obesity. The surgical treatment benefit was predominantly seen in women with hyperinsulinemia. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01479452.

Long-term incidence of haematological cancer after bariatric surgery or usual care in the Swedish Obese Subjects study: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery in people with obesity is associated with a reduced overall cancer risk. Retrospective studies indicate that bariatric surgery specifically might reduce the risk of haematological cancers, but there is an absence of data from long-term, prospective studies. We therefore studied the association between bariatric surgery and haematological cancer in the Swedish Obese Subjects study. METHODS: The prospective controlled Swedish Obese Subjects study was designed to compare overall mortality in people who underwent bariatric surgery (n=2007) and usual care (n=2040). Participants were recruited through campaigns in mass media and at 480 primary health-care centres all over Sweden. The inclusion criteria were an age of 37-60 years and a BMI of 34 kg/m2 or more in men and 38 kg/m2 or more in women before or at the time of the examination. Haematological cancer events, including malignant lymphoma, myeloma, myeloproliferative neoplasms, as well as acute and chronic leukaemias, were captured from the Swedish Cancer Registry. The main outcome of this study was haematological cancer incidence and mortality. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01479452) and is ongoing. FINDINGS: A total of 4047 individuals with obesity were enrolled between Sept 1, 1987, and Jan 31, 2001. Overall, 34 participants in the surgery group and 51 participants in the usual care control group were diagnosed with haematological cancer during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 0·60; 95% CI 0·39-0·92; p=0·020). Moreover, there were three deaths by haematological cancer in the surgery group and 13 deaths in the control group (0·22; 0·06-0·76; p=0·017). Surgery was also associated with a reduced incidence of lymphoma (0·45; 0·23-0·88; p=0·020). A significant difference in treatment effect between men and women was found; bariatric surgery was associated with reduced incidence of haematological cancer in women (0·44; 0·26-0·74; p=0·002), but not in men (1·35; 0·58-3·17; p=0·489; interaction p=0·031). INTERPRETATION: Bariatric surgery is associated with a reduced incidence of haematological cancer, specifically in women. Health-care providers and policy makers working in the field of cancer prevention should consider bariatric surgery a primary prevention resource for people with obesity. FUNDING: The Swedish Research Council, the Swedish State under the agreement between the Swedish Government and the county councils, the Avtal om Läkarutbildning och Forskning agreement, the Health & Medical Care Committee of the Region Västra Götaland, the Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, Gothenburg Medical Society, and the Adlerbert Research Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Swedish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Material section.

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning-based calculator for predicting 5-year weight trajectories after bariatric surgery: a multinational retrospective cohort SOPHIA study.

BACKGROUND: Weight loss trajectories after bariatric surgery vary widely between individuals, and predicting weight loss before the operation remains challenging. We aimed to develop a model using machine learning to provide individual preoperative prediction of 5-year weight loss trajectories after surgery. METHODS: In this multinational retrospective observational study we enrolled adult participants (aged ≥18 years) from ten prospective cohorts (including ABOS [NCT01129297], BAREVAL [NCT02310178], the Swedish Obese Subjects study, and a large cohort from the Dutch Obesity Clinic [Nederlandse Obesitas Kliniek]) and two randomised trials (SleevePass [NCT00793143] and SM-BOSS [NCT00356213]) in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with a 5 year follow-up after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric band. Patients with a previous history of bariatric surgery or large delays between scheduled and actual visits were excluded. The training cohort comprised patients from two centres in France (ABOS and BAREVAL). The primary outcome was BMI at 5 years. A model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select variables and the classification and regression trees algorithm to build interpretable regression trees. The performances of the model were assessed through the median absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of BMI. FINDINGS: 10 231 patients from 12 centres in ten countries were included in the analysis, corresponding to 30 602 patient-years. Among participants in all 12 cohorts, 7701 (75·3%) were female, 2530 (24·7%) were male. Among 434 baseline attributes available in the training cohort, seven variables were selected: height, weight, intervention type, age, diabetes status, diabetes duration, and smoking status. At 5 years, across external testing cohorts the overall mean MAD BMI was 2·8 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·6-3·0) and mean RMSE BMI was 4·7 kg/m2 (4·4-5·0), and the mean difference between predicted and observed BMI was -0·3 kg/m2 (SD 4·7). This model is incorporated in an easy to use and interpretable web-based prediction tool to help inform clinical decision before surgery. INTERPRETATION: We developed a machine learning-based model, which is internationally validated, for predicting individual 5-year weight loss trajectories after three common bariatric interventions. FUNDING: SOPHIA Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, supported by the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, Type 1 Diabetes Exchange, and the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation and Obesity Action Coalition; Métropole Européenne de Lille; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies du numérique through the Artificial Intelligence chair Apprenf; Université de Lille Nord Europe's I-SITE EXPAND as part of the Bandits For Health project; Laboratoire d'excellence European Genomic Institute for Diabetes; Soutien aux Travaux Interdisciplinaires, Multi-établissements et Exploratoires programme by Conseil Régional Hauts-de-France (volet partenarial phase 2, project PERSO-SURG).

Life expectancy after bariatric surgery or usual care in patients with or without baseline type 2 diabetes in Swedish Obese Subjects.

OBJECTIVES: To determine life expectancy and causes of death after bariatric surgery in relation to baseline type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the prospective, Swedish Obese Subjects study. METHODS: The study included 2010 patients with obesity who underwent bariatric surgery and 2037 matched controls, eligible for surgery. The surgery group underwent gastric bypass (n = 265), banding (n = 376), or vertical banded gastroplasty (n = 1369). The control group (n = 2037) received usual obesity care. Causes of death were obtained from the Swedish Cause of Death Register, case sheets and autopsy reports, in patients with baseline T2D (n = 392 surgery patients/n = 305 controls) or non-T2D (n = 1609 surgery patients/n = 1726 controls) during a median follow-up 26 years. RESULTS: In T2D and non-T2D subgroups, bariatric surgery was associated with increased life expectancy (2.1, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.2-4.0; and 1.6, 0.5-2.7 years, respectively) and reduced overall mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR) = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.97; and 0.82, 0.72-0.94, respectively), and the treatment benefit was similar (interaction p = 0.615). Bariatric surgery was associated with reduced cardiovascular mortality in both subgroups (adjHR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.46-0.91; and 0.70, 0.55-0.88, respectively (interaction p = 0.516)). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery is associated with similar reduction of overall and cardiovascular mortality and increased life expectancy regardless of baseline diabetes status.

Non-alcohol substance use disorder after bariatric surgery in the prospective, controlled Swedish Obese Subjects study.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to investigate whether bariatric surgery is associated with substance use disorder (SUD) with substances other than alcohol. METHODS: The prospective, controlled Swedish Obese Subjects study enrolled 2010 patients with obesity who underwent bariatric surgery (gastric bypass n = 265; vertical banded gastroplasty n = 1369; gastric banding n = 376) and 2037 matched control individuals receiving usual obesity care. Participants with SUD other than alcohol use disorder were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes from the Swedish National Patient Register (covering treatment in hospital but not primary care). Those with a history of non-alcohol SUD were excluded. Median follow-up was 23.8 years. RESULTS: During follow-up, non-alcohol SUD incidence rates per 1000 person-years with 95% CI were 1.6 (0.8-3.1), 0.8 (0.5-1.2), 1.1 (0.5-2.2), and 0.6 (0.4-0.8) for gastric bypass, vertical banded gastroplasty, gastric banding, and control individuals, respectively. Only gastric bypass was associated with increased incidence of non-alcohol SUD (adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 [95% CI: 1.14-5.65], p = 0.022) compared with control participants. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric bypass surgery was associated with increased risk of non-alcohol SUD, and this should be considered in long-term postoperative care.

Evolution of age-related mutation-driven clonal haematopoiesis over 20 years is associated with metabolic dysfunction in obesity.

BACKGROUND: Haematopoietic clones caused by somatic mutations with ≥2% variant allele frequency (VAF) increase with age and are linked to risk of haematological malignancies and cardiovascular disease. Recent observations suggest that smaller clones (VAF<2%) are also associated with adverse outcomes. Our aims were to determine the prevalence of clonal haematopoiesis driven by clones of variable sizes in individuals with obesity treated by usual care or bariatric surgery (a treatment that improves metabolic status), and to examine the expansion of clones in relation to age and metabolic dysregulation over up to 20 years. METHODS: Clonal haematopoiesis-driver mutations (CHDMs) were identified in blood samples from participants of the Swedish Obese Subjects intervention study. Using an ultrasensitive assay, we analysed single-timepoint samples from 1050 individuals treated by usual care and 841 individuals who had undergone bariatric surgery, and multiple-timepoint samples taken over 20 years from a subset (n = 40) of the individuals treated by usual care. FINDINGS: In this explorative study, prevalence of CHDMs was similar in the single-timepoint usual care and bariatric surgery groups (20.6% and 22.5%, respectively, P = 0.330), with VAF ranging from 0.01% to 31.15%. Clone sizes increased with age in individuals with obesity, but not in those who underwent bariatric surgery. In the multiple-timepoint analysis, VAF increased by on average 7% (range -4% to 24%) per year and rate of clone growth was negatively associated with HDL-cholesterol (R = -0.68, 1.74 E-04). INTERPRETATION: Low HDL-C was associated with growth of haematopoietic clones in individuals with obesity treated by usual care. FUNDING: The Swedish Research Council, The Swedish state under an agreement between the Swedish government and the county councils, the ALF (Avtal om Läkarutbildning och Forskning) agreement, The Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, The Novo Nordisk Foundation, The European Research Council, The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research.

Correction: Copy number of pancreatic polypeptide receptor gene NPY4R correlates with body mass index and waist circumference.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194668.].

Human adipose tissue gene expression of solute carrier family 19 member 3 (SLC19A3); relation to obesity and weight-loss.

OBJECTIVE: Adipose tissue is a specialized endocrine organ that is involved in modulating whole-body energy homeostasis and expresses a specific subset of genes, which may play a role in adipose tissue metabolism. The aim of this study was to search for novel adipose tissue-specific genes using a tissue panel of RNAseq expression profiles. METHODS: RNAseq expression profiles from 53 human tissues were downloaded from the GTex database. SLC19A3 expression was analyzed by microarray or real-time PCR in two sets of paired subcutaneous and omental adipose tissue samples, in two studies with adipose tissue from persons with high or low body mass index (BMI), in adipose tissue from patients who underwent weight loss with a very-low caloric diet and during preadipocyte-adipocyte differentiation. RESULTS: The RNAseq-based tissue distribution expression screen identified SLC19A3 (encoding the thiamine transporter 2) as adipose tissue-specific. SLC19A3 expression was higher in subcutaneous compared with omental adipose tissue in both sample sets (p = 0.043 and p < 0.001). Preadipocyte differentiation towards adipocytes resulted in increased SLC19A3 gene expression (p = 0.018 or less at all-time points). Subcutaneous adipose tissue expression of SLC19A3 was lower in persons with high BMI in both cohorts (p = 0.008, and p < 0.001) and increased during a weight-loss intervention (p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: The specific adipose tissue expression pattern of SLC19A3, together with its regulation in obesity and during weight loss, indicate that it plays a key role in adipocyte metabolism.

Association of Bariatric Surgery With Cancer Incidence in Patients With Obesity and Diabetes: Long-term Results From the Swedish Obese Subjects Study.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity and type 2 diabetes are associated with serious adverse health effects, including cancer. Although bariatric surgery has been shown to reduce cancer risk in patients with obesity, the effect of bariatric surgery on cancer risk in patients with obesity and diabetes is less studied. We therefore examined the long-term incidence of cancer after bariatric surgery and usual care in patients with obesity and diabetes in the matched prospective Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The SOS study examines long-term outcomes following bariatric surgery or usual care. The current analysis includes 701 patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes at baseline, 393 of whom underwent bariatric surgery and 308 who received conventional obesity treatment. Information on cancer events was obtained from the Swedish National Cancer Register. Median follow-up time was 21.3 years (interquartile range 17.6-24.8 years, maximum 30.7 years). RESULTS: During follow-up, the incidence rate for first-time cancer was 9.1 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 7.2-11.5) in patients with obesity and diabetes treated with bariatric surgery and 14.1 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 11.2-17.7) in patients treated with usual obesity care (adjusted hazard ratio 0.63 [95% CI 0.44-0.89], P = 0.008). Moreover, surgery was associated with reduced cancer incidence in women (0.58 [0.38-0.90], P = 0.016), although the sex-treatment interaction was nonsignificant (P = 0.630). In addition, diabetes remission at the 10-year follow-up was associated with reduced cancer incidence (0.40 [0.22-0.74], P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that bariatric surgery prevents cancer in patients with obesity and diabetes and that durable diabetes remission is associated with reduced cancer risk.

Adiponectin Associates with Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk in Overweight and Obesity Independently of Other Adipokines.

We recently reported that increased serum adiponectin was associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk in subjects with obesity. We hereby aim to determine if other adipokines associate with RA risk and if the association between adiponectin and RA is independent of other adipokines. Two nested-case control studies were performed in two different cohorts: 82 participants of the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study who developed RA during follow-up matched with 410 controls, and 88 matched pairs from the Medical Biobank of Northern Sweden. Baseline levels of circulating adipokines were measured using ELISA. In a multivariable analysis in the SOS cohort, higher adiponectin was associated with an increased risk of RA independently of other adipokines (OR for RA risk: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.12, p = 0.02). No association between leptin, resistin, and visfatin levels and the risk of RA was detected. In the cohort from the Medical Biobank of Northern Sweden, higher adiponectin was associated with an increased risk of RA only in participants with overweight/obesity (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, p = 0.03), independently of other adipokines. Our results show that in individuals with overweight/obesity, higher circulating levels of adiponectin, but not leptin, resistin, or visfatin, were associated with an increased RA risk.

Long-term incidence of hypoglycaemia-related events after bariatric surgery or usual care in the Swedish Obese Subjects study: A register-based analysis.

AIMS: To examine the incidence of hypoglycaemia-related events over a period of up to 31 years in patients treated with bariatric surgery in the prospective, controlled Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The SOS study (n = 4047) is a prospective controlled intervention study. The present analysis included 1989 patients treated with bariatric surgery and 2027 control patients with obesity who received usual care. Diagnosed hypoglycaemia and events commonly attributed to hypoglycaemia (confusion, syncope, epilepsy and seizures), requiring hospital or specialist outpatient treatment, were identified by searching the National Patient Register. Analyses were stratified by baseline glycaemic status. Hazard ratios were adjusted for inclusion year, age, sex, smoking, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level and body mass index at baseline. At the time of analysis (December 31, 2018), the median follow-up was 22 years. RESULTS: Compared with usual care, bariatric surgery was associated with increased incidence of hypoglycaemia-related events in patients without baseline diabetes (168 and 219 events, respectively; log-rank P = .011), with a more pronounced risk during the first years of follow-up (test of time-treatment interaction P = .010). Multivariate analyses in patients without baseline diabetes indicated that male sex (P < .001), older age (P = .001) and higher HbA1c levels (P = .006) were associated with hypoglycaemia-related events. No association was found between risk of hypoglycaemia-related events and bariatric surgery in patients with baseline diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery is associated with an increased incidence of hypoglycaemia-related events in patients without baseline diabetes, especially during the first years after treatment.

Long-term incidence of colorectal cancer after bariatric surgery or usual care in the Swedish Obese Subjects study.

Bariatric surgery in patients with obesity is generally considered to reduce cancer risk in patients with obesity. However, for colorectal cancer some studies report an increased risk with bariatric surgery, whereas others report a decreased risk. These conflicting results demonstrate the need of more long-term studies analyzing the effect of bariatric surgery on colorectal cancer risk. Therefore, data from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01479452, was used to examine the impact of bariatric surgery on long-term incidence of colorectal cancer. The SOS study includes 2007 patients who underwent bariatric surgery and 2040 contemporaneously matched controls who received conventional obesity treatment. Patients in the surgery group underwent gastric bypass (n = 266), banding (n = 376) or vertical banded gastroplasty (n = 1365). Information on colorectal cancer events was obtained from the Swedish National Cancer Registry. Median follow-up was 22.2 years (inter-quartile range 18.3-25.2). During follow up there were 58 colorectal cancer events in the surgery group and 67 colorectal cancer events in the matched control group with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.79 (95% CI:0.55-1.12; p = 0.183). After adjusting for age, body mass index, alcohol intake, smoking status, and diabetes, the adjusted HR was 0.89 (95% CI:0.62-1.29; p = 0.551). When analyzing rectal cancer events separately- 19 events in the surgery group and 31 events in the control group-a decreased risk of rectal cancer with surgery was observed (HR = 0.56; 95% CI:0.32-0.99; p = 0.045, adjusted HR = 0.61 (95% CI:0.34-1.10; p = 0.099), while the risk of colon cancer was unchanged. To conclude- in this long-term, prospective study, bariatric surgery was not associated with altered colorectal cancer risk.

Heart failure development in obesity: underlying risk factors and mechanistic pathways.

AIMS: People with obesity are at risk for developing heart failure (HF), but little is known about the mechanistic pathways that link obesity with cardiac dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 2030 participants from the Swedish Obese Subjects study who received conventional obesity treatment. First-time detection of HF was obtained by cross-checking the study population with the Swedish National Patient Register and the Swedish Cause of Death Register. We also examined if atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction as time-dependent variables could predict incident HF The mean age of the study cohort was 48.7 years, and 28% were men. The mean body mass index at baseline was 40.1 kg/m2 and remained stable during a median follow-up of 20.1 years. First-time diagnosis of HF occurred in 266 of patients and was related to male sex, increasing age, greater waist-hip ratio, hypertension, higher cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and elevated free thyroxine in univariable analysis. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was negatively related to HF risk. In multivariable analysis, atrial fibrillation, which is related to HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), and myocardial infarction, which is linked to HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), were strongly associated with incident HF with sub-hazard ratios 3.75 (95% confidence interval: 2.72-5.18, P < 0.001) and 3.68 (95% confidence interval: 2.55-5.30, P < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction as time-dependent variables were independently and strongly related to incident HF in people with excess body fat, suggesting two main obesity-related mechanistic pathways leading to either HFpEF or HFrEF.

Alpha-amylase 1A copy number variants and the association with memory performance and Alzheimer's dementia.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that copy number variation (CNV) in the alpha (α)-amylase gene (AMY1A) is associated with body mass index, insulin resistance, and blood glucose levels, factors also shown to increase the risk of Alzheimer's dementia (AD). We have previously demonstrated the presence of α-amylase in healthy neuronal dendritic spines and a reduction of the same in AD patients. In the current study, we investigate the relationship between AMY1A copy number and AD, memory performance, and brain α-amylase activity. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The association between AMY1A copy number and development of AD was analyzed in 5422 individuals (mean age at baseline 57.5 ± 5.9, females 58.2%) from the Malmö diet and cancer study genotyped for AMY1A copy number, whereof 247 where diagnosed with AD during a mean follow-up of 20 years. Associations between AMY1A copy number and cognitive performance where analyzed in 791 individuals (mean age at baseline 54.7 ± 6.3, females 63%), who performed Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) test. Correlation analysis between α-amylase activity or α-amylase gene expression and AMY1A copy number in post-mortem hippocampal tissue from on demented controls (n = 8) and AD patients (n = 10) was also performed. RESULTS: Individuals with very high ( ≥10) AMY1A copy number had a significantly lower hazard ratio of AD (HR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.94) and performed significantly better on MoCA delayed word recall test, compared to the reference group with AMY1A copy number 6. A trend to lower hazard ratio of AD was also found among individuals with low AMY1A copy number (1-5) (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.53-1.02). A tendency towards a positive correlation between brain α-amylase activity and AMY1A copy number was found, and females showed higher brain α-amylase activity compared to males. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that the degree of α-amylase activity in the brain is affected by AMY1A copy number and gender, in addition to AD pathology. The study further suggests that very high AMY1A copy number is associated with a decreased hazard ratio of AD and we speculate that this effect is mediated via a beneficial impact of AMY1A copy number on episodic memory performance.

Life Expectancy after Bariatric Surgery in the Swedish Obese Subjects Study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity shortens life expectancy. Bariatric surgery is known to reduce the long-term relative risk of death, but its effect on life expectancy is unclear. METHODS: We used the Gompertz proportional hazards regression model to compare mortality and life expectancy among patients treated with either bariatric surgery (surgery group) or usual obesity care (control group) in the prospective, controlled Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study and participants in the SOS reference study (reference cohort), a random sample from the general population. RESULTS: In total, 2007 and 2040 patients were included in the surgery group and the control group, respectively, and 1135 participants were included in the reference cohort. At the time of the analysis (December 31, 2018), the median duration of follow-up for mortality was 24 years (interquartile range, 22 to 27) in the surgery group and 22 years (interquartile range, 21 to 27) in the control group; data on mortality were available for 99.9% of patients in the study. In the SOS reference cohort, the median duration of follow-up was 20 years (interquartile range, 19 to 21), and data on mortality were available for 100% of participants. In total, 457 patients (22.8%) in the surgery group and 539 patients (26.4%) in the control group died (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.87; P<0.001). The corresponding hazard ratio was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.57 to 0.85) for death from cardiovascular disease and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.61 to 0.96) for death from cancer. The adjusted median life expectancy in the surgery group was 3.0 years (95% CI, 1.8 to 4.2) longer than in the control group but 5.5 years shorter than in the general population. The 90-day postoperative mortality was 0.2%, and 2.9% of the patients in the surgery group underwent repeat surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with obesity, bariatric surgery was associated with longer life expectancy than usual obesity care. Mortality remained higher in both groups than in the general population. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council and others; SOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01479452.).

9p21.3 Coronary Artery Disease Locus Identifies Patients With Treatment Benefit From Bariatric Surgery in the Nonrandomized Prospective Controlled Swedish Obese Subjects Study.

BACKGROUND: Sequence variation at chromosome 9p21.3 accounts for 20% of myocardial infarctions (MIs) in several populations. Whereas the risk conferred by the 9p21.3 locus appears to act independently of traditional risk factors, studies suggest that the association between 9p21.3 and MI is modified by glucose homeostasis and lifestyle. We examined if the 9p21.3 variant rs1333049, along with the previously identified predictor fasting insulin, modifies the preventive effect of bariatric surgery on MI incidence. METHODS: rs1333049 was genotyped in 1852 patients treated by bariatric surgery and 1803 controls given usual care in the SOS study (Swedish Obese Subjects). MI incidence was determined using national registers. Median follow-up was 21 years (interquartile range 18-24 years). RESULTS: Overall, 366 MIs occurred during follow-up. Among rs1333049 risk-allele carriers (CC+GC), the incidence of MI was reduced in the surgery group compared with the control group (hazard ratio=0.72 [95% CI, 0.57-0.92], P=0.008). By contrast, noncarriers (GG) showed no significant differences in MI incidence between the treatment groups (hazard ratio=1.28 [0.86-1.90], P=0.227; interaction between treatment and the risk-allele P=0.016). In addition, carriers with higher fasting insulin (above the median [17 mmol/L]) experienced significantly higher MI incidence than carriers with lower fasting insulin (hazard ratio=0.58 [0.42-0.78], P<0.001, interaction P=0.031). CONCLUSIONS: In the SOS cohort, patients with the chromosome 9p21.3 rs1333049 risk allele together with high fasting insulin levels benefitted from bariatric surgery in terms of reduced incidence of MI. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01479452.

Evaluation of Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Relapse After Post-bariatric Surgery Remission: a Post hoc Analysis of 15-Year Follow-up Data from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) Study.

PURPOSE: Many patients achieve type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission after bariatric surgery, but relapse after post-surgery remission is common. Scoring models accurately predict remission up to 5 years after surgery but have not been tested for prediction of long-term T2D relapse. The aim of this work was to test the ability of prediction models and single predictors to identify patients at risk of long-term relapse (10-15 years) after post-surgery T2D remission. METHODS: We identified 222 individuals with T2D from the surgically treated group in the prospective Swedish Obese Subjects study, who were in remission at the 2-year follow-up and had data available for prediction of long-term T2D relapse. T2D remission/relapse was assessed after 10 and 15 years. Model performance (discrimination) was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: Preoperative prediction of relapse using scores DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem, and DiaBetter and T2D duration alone was poor, as indicated by AUROC curves between 0.61-0.64 at 10 years and 0.62-0.66 at 15 years. Likewise, the 5y-Ad-DiaRem score, which includes early postoperative measures, resulted in AUROC curves of 0.65 and 0.70 for relapse at 10 and 15 years, respectively. Two-year weight change alone had higher discriminatory capacity than the 5y-Ad-DiaRem model at 10 years (AUROC = 0.70; p = 0.036) and similar capacity at 15 years (AUROC = 0.78; p = 0.188). CONCLUSIONS: Predictive performance of all tested models is low for T2D relapse. By contrast, a single measure of 2-year weight change after surgery was associated with relapse, supporting a key role for initial weight reduction in long-term T2D control.

Effects of Bariatric Surgery in Early- and Adult-Onset Obesity in the Prospective Controlled Swedish Obese Subjects Study.

OBJECTIVE: Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for obesity, but it is unknown if outcomes differ between adults with early- versus adult-onset obesity. We investigated how obesity status at 20 years of age affects outcomes after bariatric surgery later in life. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Swedish Obese Subjects study is a prospective matched study performed at 25 surgical departments and 480 primary health care centers. Participants aged 37-60 years with BMI ≥34 kg/m2 (men) or ≥38 kg/m2 (women) were recruited between 1987 and 2001; 2,007 participants received bariatric surgery and 2,040 usual care. Self-reported body weight at 20 years of age was used to stratify patients into subgroups with normal BMI (<25 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2), or obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). Body weight, energy intake, and type 2 diabetes status were examined over 10 years, and incidence of cardiovascular and microvascular disease was determined over up to 26 years using data from health registers. RESULTS: There were small but statistically significant differences in reduction of body weight among the subgroups after bariatric surgery (interaction P = 0.032), with the largest reductions among those with obesity aged 20 years. Bariatric surgery increased type 2 diabetes remission (odds ratios 4.51, 4.90, and 5.58 in subgroups with normal BMI, overweight, or obesity at 20 years of age, respectively; interaction P = 0.951), reduced type 2 diabetes incidence (odds ratios 0.15, 0.13, and 0.15, respectively; interaction P = 0.972), and reduced microvascular complications independent of obesity status at 20 years of age (interaction P = 0.650). The association between bariatric surgery and cardiovascular disease was similar in the subgroups (interaction P = 0.674). Surgical complications were similar in the subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment benefits of bariatric surgery in adults are similar regardless of obesity status at 20 years of age.

Interaction Effect Between Copy Number Variation in Salivary Amylase Locus (AMY1) and Starch Intake on Glucose Homeostasis in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort.

Salivary amylase initiates the digestion of starch and it has been hypothesized that salivary amylase may play a role in the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. The aim was to examine the interaction between copy number variation in the salivary amylase gene AMY1 and starch intake. We studied 3,624 adults without diabetes or elevated blood glucose in the Malmö Diet Cancer cohort. We assessed the associations and interactions between starch intake, AMY1 copies and glucose homeostasis traits (i.e., fasting plasma glucose, insulin and HOMA-IR) and risk of type 2 diabetes over an average of 18 follow-up years. AMY1 copy number was not associated with glucose, insulin or HOMA-IR. We observed a significant interaction between starch intake and AMY1 copies on insulin and HOMA-IR after adjusting for potential confounders (p < 0.05). The inverse association between starch intake and insulin and HOMA-IR was stronger in the group with 10 or more copies (P trend < 0.001). In addition, we observed an inverse association between starch intake and type 2 diabetes in the group with 10 or more copies (p trend = 0.003), but not in the other groups. This cross-sectional observational study suggests that AMY1 copy numbers might interact with starch intake on glucose homeostasis traits. Interventional studies are required to determine whether individuals with high AMY1 copy numbers may benefit from a high starch intake.

Bariatric surgery and the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis - a Swedish Obese Subjects study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of bariatric surgery on the incidence of RA in participants of the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study. METHODS: The SOS is a longitudinal study aiming to assess the effect of bariatric surgery on mortality and obesity-related diseases. This report includes 2002 subjects with obesity who underwent bariatric surgery and 2034 matched controls; none of them had RA at baseline. Cases of incident RA were identified through the Swedish National Patient Register by searching for International Classification of Diseases codes. Both intention-to-treat analyses and per-protocol analyses are reported. In the per-protocol analysis, participants from the control group who underwent bariatric surgery later on during follow-up were censored at the time of surgery. RESULTS: During follow-up, 92 study participants developed RA. The median follow-up was 21 years (range 0-29). Bariatric surgery was neither associated with the incidence of RA in the intention-to-treat analysis [hazard ratio (HR) 0.92 (95% CI 0.59, 1.46), P = 0.74], nor in the per-protocol analysis [HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.54, 1.38), P = 0.53]. Weight change at the 2 year follow-up, expressed as the change in BMI compared with baseline, did not associate with the development of RA. Higher serum CRP levels and smoking associated with the future development of RA independent of other factors. CONCLUSIONS: We did not detect any association between bariatric surgery and the incidence of RA in subjects affected by obesity followed up for up to 29 years. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: (http://clinicaltrials.gov): NCT01479452.