Evidence for antibody as a protective correlate for COVID-19 vaccines

Though eleven novel COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated efficacy, additional affordable, scalable, and deliverable vaccines are needed to meet unprecedented global demand. With placebo-controlled efficacy trials becoming infeasible due to the roll out of licensed vaccines, a correlate of protection is urgently needed to provide a path for regulatory approval of novel vaccines. To assess whether antibody titers may reasonably predict efficacy, we evaluated the relationship between efficacy and in vitro neutralizing and binding antibodies of 7 vaccines for which sufficient data have been generated. Once calibrated to titers of human convalescent sera reported in each study, a robust correlation was seen between neutralizing titer and efficacy ({rho}= 0.79) and binding antibody titer and efficacy ({rho} = 0.93), despite geographically diverse study populations subject to different forces of infection and circulating variants, and use of different endpoints, assays, convalescent sera panels and manufacturing platforms. This correlation is strengthened by substituting post-hoc analyses for efficacy against the ancestral strain (D614G), where available. Together with an accumulating body of evidence from natural history studies and animal models, these results support the use of post-immunization antibody titers as the basis for establishing a correlate of protection for COVID-19 vaccines.

TCR meta-clonotypes for biomarker discovery with tcrdist3: quantification of public, HLA-restricted TCR biomarkers of SARS-CoV-2 infection

As the mechanistic basis of adaptive cellular antigen recognition, T cell receptors (TCRs) encode clinically valuable information that reflects prior antigen exposure and potential future response. However, despite advances in deep repertoire sequencing, enormous TCR diversity complicates the use of TCR clonotypes as clinical biomarkers. We propose a new framework that leverages antigen-enriched repertoires to form meta-clonotypes - groups of biochemically similar TCRs - that can be used to robustly identify and quantify functionally similar TCRs in bulk repertoires. We apply the framework to TCR data from COVID-19 patients, generating 1831 public TCR meta-clonotypes from the 17 SARS-CoV-2 antigen-enriched repertoires with the strongest evidence of HLA-restriction. Applied to independent cohorts, meta-clonotypes targeting these specific epitopes were more frequently detected in bulk repertoires compared to exact amino acid matches, and 59.7% (1093/1831) were more abundant among COVID-19 patients that expressed the putative restricting HLA allele (FDR < 0.01), demonstrating the potential utility of meta-clonotypes as antigen-specific features for biomarker development. To enable further applications, we developed an open-source software package, tcrdist3, that implements this framework and facilitates flexible workflows for distance-based TCR repertoire analysis.

Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays for antibody monitoring in natural infection and vaccine trials

Determinants of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 infection require the development of well-standardized, reproducible antibody assays to be utilized in concert with clinical trials to establish correlates of risk and protection. This need has led to the appearance of a variety of neutralization assays used by different laboratories and companies. Using plasma samples from COVID-19 convalescent individuals with mild-to-moderate disease from a localized outbreak in a single region of the western US, we compared three platforms for SARS-CoV-2 neutralization: assay with live SARS-CoV-2, pseudovirus assay utilizing lentiviral (LV) and vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) packaging, and a surrogate ELISA test. Vero, Vero E6, HEK293T cells expressing human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (hACE2), and TZM-bl cells expressing hACE2 and transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) were evaluated. Live-virus and LV-pseudovirus assay with HEK293T cells showed similar geometric mean titers (GMTs) ranging 141-178, but VSV-pseudovirus assay yielded significantly higher GMT (310 95%CI 211-454; p < 0.001). Fifty percent neutralizing dilution (ND50) titers from live-virus and all pseudovirus assay readouts were highly correlated (Pearson r = 0.81-0.89). ND50 titers positively correlated with plasma concentration of IgG against SARS-CoV-2 spike and receptor binding domain (RBD) (r = 0.63-0.89), but moderately correlated with nucleoprotein IgG (r = 0.46-0.73). There was a moderate positive correlation between age and spike (Spearmans rho=0.37, p=0.02), RBD (rho=0.39, p=0.013) and nucleoprotein IgG (rho=0.45, p=0.003). ND80 showed stronger correlation with age than ND50 (ND80 rho=0.51 (p=0.001), ND50 rho=0.28 (p=0.075)). Our data demonstrate high concordance between cell-based assays with live and pseudotyped virions.